Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has officially entered the Twitter space ... er, presidential race. He kicked off his campaign in a conversation on a glitchy Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and tech entrepreneur David Sacks on Wednesday. In his opening remarks, he stressed his electability and the ability to implement a policy platform that may not look all that different from that of former President Donald Trump. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses what DeSantis's presidential bid w...
May 25, 2023•41 min•Transcript available on Metacast The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast gets ready for a big week in politics. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially kicked off his presidential campaign in North Charleston Monday morning. We also expect the long-teased Ron DeSantis presidential campaign to become a reality this week. And, according to the Treasury Department we are just a week or so away from a possible default on the nation’s debt. National politics reporter at the AP Meg Kinnard and Data Columnist at the Washington Post j...
May 22, 2023•59 min•Transcript available on Metacast Since 1956, European countries have been gathering each year to compete in the Eurovision song contest -- a competition of largely pop and techno artists that can often feel like a parody of European tastes in music. There have long been accusations of bias in the voting process and last Saturday's competition -- which Sweden won -- was no exception. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with statistics and health economics professor Gianluca Baio, who created a model to determine whe...
May 18, 2023•57 min•Transcript available on Metacast On Tuesday, voters are heading to the polls in at least three competitive races: the Kentucky Republican gubernatorial primary, the Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary and the Jacksonville mayoral election. In this installment of the podcast, Galen and Nathaniel preview the state of those three races. They also speak with YouGov's Linley Sanders about a new poll showing that Democrats broadly trust news outlets more than Republicans, including even some right-leaning news outlets. And they l...
May 15, 2023•1 hr•Transcript available on Metacast Title 42 is expiring on Thursday night, a pandemic-era rule allowing the U.S. government to turn away asylum seekers at the border as a public health measure. This comes at a time when apprehensions at the border are already at record highs and Americans give President Biden some of his lowest ratings on his handling of immigration. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with Georgetown economics professor Anna Maria Mayda about what Americans think of immigration and why, its impacts ...
May 11, 2023•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast King Charles III was crowned over the weekend, which led to a lot of polls comparing his popularity to that of other members of the royal family. Long story short, the numbers aren’t great, but in some ways that's beside the point. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks if polling non-democratic institutions is a good use of polling. They also look at a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Biden in a very...
May 08, 2023•50 min•Transcript available on Metacast For decades, Americans have been moving South and West. That migration pattern was visible in political terms when seven congressional districts moved between states after the 2020 census, and it continues to be visible in the booming construction and job markets in cities across the Sun Belt. In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with author Jake Bittle, who argues that it’s only a matter of time before those trends reverse, or at least shift. However, as he writes in his new book, "...
May 04, 2023•43 min•Transcript available on Metacast President Biden announced his reelection campaign last Tuesday, a widely expected move that also brings us one step closer to a possible rematch of the 2020 election. The crew talks about the challenges and advantages that the campaign will bring. They also discuss last week's decision from the North Carolina Supreme Court, clearing the way for partisan gerrymandering in the state. And they ask whether Americans can be trusted to reliably tell pollsters which high school cliques they belonged to...
May 01, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Transcript available on Metacast Congress returned from recess last week to two ongoing conflicts. One was Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s absence from the Senate, stalling the process by which Democrats can approve their judicial nominees. The other was what to do about the debt ceiling, which has already been breached and could lead to the U.S. government running out of money as early as June. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the latest developments and what Americans think about it all. They also dig into new d...
Apr 24, 2023•47 min•Transcript available on Metacast The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-theme...
Apr 21, 2023•1 hr 29 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Supreme Court is set for another high-profile clash over abortion rights. Last Friday, Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary stay in a case challenging the FDA’s approval of mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. It means that for now the status quo stands, but in this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about where things could go from here. They also discuss South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott’s pitch to Republican voters after the launch of his exploratory committee for pre...
Apr 17, 2023•57 min•Transcript available on Metacast According to Gallup’s National Health and Well-Being Index, the negative emotion consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have subsided to a large degree. According to recent data, 17 percent of Americans said they were lonely “a lot of the day yesterday,” down from a pandemic high of 25 percent. Galen Druke speaks with director of the National Health and Well-Being Index, Dan Witters, to get an understanding of what American life satisfaction looks like today. Learn more about your ad choices. ...
Apr 13, 2023•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast How concerned, if at all, are you about the possibility that AI will cause the end of the human race on Earth? And more importantly for the purposes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, is that a good or bad use of polling? In this installment, the crew discuss how reflective of public opinion a recent poll on AI was and why politicians have been slow to regulate it. They also turn their attention to the recent expulsion of two Tennessee lawmakers from the state House and a ruling from a fed...
Apr 10, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Transcript available on Metacast Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the country’s purplest states and its third-largest city. In Wisconsin, voters chose the liberal state Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz by a double-digit margin, flipping the ideological orientation of the court. And in Chicago, voters chose progressive Brandon...
Apr 05, 2023•43 min•Transcript available on Metacast The crew previews a big week ahead in politics. Former President Donald Trump is expected to be arraigned in Manhattan on Tuesday, following last week's indictment. Also on Tuesday, voters will head to the polls to decide the balance of power on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the next mayor of Chicago. The crew also discusses former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson's entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Apr 03, 2023•51 min•Transcript available on Metacast In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew reacts to news that former President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury in a case involving hush money payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. They discuss the possible political implications and what will come next in the case. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mar 31, 2023•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast In our federalist system, the saying goes, the states are laboratories of democracy. State governments test out different policies or even political strategies that may someday reach the whole country or drive red and blue states further apart. This year FiveThirtyEight is tracking what that looks like -- what legislation is being proposed and passed and how Republicans and Democrats are going about things differently. In this installment of the podcast, the crew looks at new proposals on guns, ...
Mar 30, 2023•50 min•Transcript available on Metacast After breaking records and breaking Ticketmaster with her "Eras" tour, pollsters have tried to determine who exactly Taylor Swift's fans are and which of her 10 albums is best regarded. In this episode, the crew asks its favorite question about one of America’s favorite musicians: Is this a good or bad use of polling? Then they take a hard turn back into electoral politics, with the question: Who do Democrats want the GOP nominee to be, and what does that tell us about how they’re thinking about...
Mar 27, 2023•46 min•Transcript available on Metacast All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney’s office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And even if the grand jury were to indict, the charges wouldn’t be unsealed until the defendant appears in court. In this installment of the podcast, the crew talks about what we do and don’t know about Trump’s legal jeopardy and the possible political im...
Mar 23, 2023•53 min•Transcript available on Metacast The crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis. Both feel relevant today, as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War and the government responds to two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mar 20, 2023•45 min•Transcript available on Metacast The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't always be taken at face value. Galen Druke speaks with historian Dan Bouk about his book, "Democracy's Data: The Hidden Stories in the U.S. Census and how to Read Them." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mar 16, 2023•56 min•Transcript available on Metacast Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. The crew explains the numbers behind that conclusion, which suggest that, despite a lot of the handwringing, polling is still just about as accurate as it's ever been. Later in the show, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the debate over abortion has evolved since the 2022 midterms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Mar 13, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
