Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the ' pacto de corruptos ' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former amba...
Jul 20, 2023•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast Argentina's presidential elections will take place in October, but the country is now fully in campaign mode. In this episode, AQ 's Brian Winter and María Esperanza Casullo discuss surprising recent developments, such as the ruling coalition's decision to back Economy Minister Sergio Massa as their candidate, and the apparent decline in support for the right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. They dissect the chances for the main contestants, and whether any of them would be able to ...
Jul 13, 2023•33 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the 2010s, corruption investigations dominated news headlines in Latin America, from Lava Jato in Brazil to La Línea in Guatemala. Nowadays, prosecutors, activists and journalists across the region continue their work of holding powerful politicians and business leaders to account, but they face a more difficult environment. That's the conclusion of the fifth edition of the Capacity to Combat Corruption (CCC) Index, produced by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Control Ris...
Jul 06, 2023•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast It’s been a mixed bag so far for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after six months back in office, with a better than expected economy, but a tough relationship with the conservative Congress. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Thomas Traumann discuss why economists have increased their Brazil GDP growth forecasts since the year started, what to expect from economic policy moving forward and why, in Traumann's opinion, environmental policy will be the key battle...
Jun 28, 2023•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast Global supply chains have become much more fluid in the past year, and some of this itinerant money is making its way to Latin America. Mexico has benefitted, but how have other countries, such as Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil fared? In this episode, Shannon K. O'Neil, author of The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter , discusses Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies, what industries and countries hold most potential when it comes to trade and nearshor...
Jun 22, 2023•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Colombian political world has been shaken by the eruption of a scandal that led the country's attorney general to launch an investigation into reports of alleged illegal financing of President Gustavo Petro's election campaign. In this episode, Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst at Control Risks, evaluates the consequences of this to Petro's leadership and his proposed reforms to healthcare, labor laws and more. She also takes stock of changes to Colombia's energy sector, d...
Jun 15, 2023•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast The race to replace President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico is starting to heat up. While his party, Morena, is in good position to win, a competition has begun for who its candidate will be. In this episode, political scientist Carlos Bravo Regidor analyzes the stakes, the favorites, the state of the opposition and what it all mean for Latin America’s second-largest economy. He also discusses what he expects from AMLO, as the president in known, in his last 18 months in office.
Jun 09, 2023•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast It’s been two decades since China started to trade and invest heavily in Latin America, and in that time, the terms of the relationship have changed. There has been a move into clean energy and more long-term investments in infrastructure, including electrical grids. In this episode, Brian Winter and Rebecca Ray look at where the relationship is at and where it’s headed. They discuss Chinese and Latin American goals, what the latest numbers on trade and investment mean, as well as potential stum...
Jun 01, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast Migration in the Americas is not a new story, but it is evolving fast. Countries that used to be senders of migrants are now also becoming recipients – Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil. Traditionally Latin America has had mostly welcoming policies towards migrants, but there are signs that could change in some countries. In the episode, AQ 's Brian Winter speaks with Andrew Seele, President of the Migration Policy Institute, about migration trends and the countries where this has become a poli...
May 25, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast From the outside looking in, it’s hard to understand what is happening in Venezuela these days. On the one hand Nicolás Maduro seems stronger than he’s been in years. The Venezuelan economy seems to have bottomed out, after years of terrible crisis. And the opposition is divided and struggling to connect with the Venezuelan people. On the other, the opposition and the Maduro government are back at the negotiating table and there is a sense that elections scheduled for 2024 might improve the poli...
May 18, 2023•28 min•Transcript available on Metacast Chile’s politics have been turned upside down once again, as an election last Sunday gave the political right almost full control over the writing of a new Constitution. A little more than a year ago, the country seemed to be undergoing a progressive transformation, after waves of protests, the arrival of a left-wing, young president, Gabriel Boric, and plans for what was supposed to be an expansive new Constitution. In this episode, political scientist Patricio Navia explains why the electorate...
May 11, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast What happens in Paraguayan politics matters not only to people who live there, but for the rest of the region and the world. It’s a member of Mercosur, at a time when that bloc’s future is in flux, and a key part of the rising strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the region — Paraguay remains one of a few nations who still recognize Taiwan. In recent elections, the country went against a regional wave of anti-incumbency sentiment by choosing a candidate of the ruling Colorado part...
May 04, 2023•23 min•Transcript available on Metacast The return of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region is as experienced and has such a large global profile. Lula is in a position to lead on key issues such as climate, regional trade integration and the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. However, the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. In this episode, Brian Winter and Oliver Stuenkel discuss what to expect on forei...
Apr 26, 2023•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast In Guatemala, economic growth has done little to improve poverty and inequality. Violence continues to drive people to leave the country. Democracy is also in decline, as successive governments have undermined institutions, jailed journalists and forced independent prosecutors and judges into exile. In these conditions, one might expect candidates in upcoming presidential elections to stand for change. Yet the leading ones share similarities with the current president. What explains this? In thi...
Apr 19, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele's hard-line security policies have contributed to a decline in homicides and extortion in El Salvador, but at a very high cost to human rights and democratic freedoms. Despite that, many in the region see this as a model to emulate and are vowing to implement similar policies. Is Bukelismo the wave of the future throughout the region? How should those who disagree with Bukele's strategy react and provide an antidote within the boundaries of the rule of law? T...
Apr 13, 2023•28 min•Transcript available on Metacast Argentina is approaching October elections with an annual inflation above 100%, poverty levels at around 40% and the possibility of tipping into recession again. However, the political class is mostly united in trying to avoid the worst, according to our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Diaz. Juan also argues that there is a sense of opportunity for the medium term, as a gas pipeline comes online probably sometime this year and interesting energy projects move forward.
Apr 05, 2023•28 min•Transcript available on Metacast Latin America’s transition away from fossil fuels is well underway, with an average 60% of renewables in its power mix. If the region can continue down this road, and incorporate new technology in areas like green hydrogen, it can become a true leader in the global energy transition and unlock a new era of green jobs and economic growth. But there are barriers, and politics can get in the way. In this episode, we get an overview of the status of different countries in the energy transition and w...
Mar 29, 2023•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term as president of Brazil will soon reach its 100-day mark. The specters of Jair Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on institutions and the insurrection in Brasília on January 8 still loom. The economy is fragile. And there are disputes inside Lula’s party regarding how to address these and other issues. In this episode, we take a long view to try to understand Lula’s recent actions and what they mean for Brazil. Our guest is Celso Rocha de Barros, author of PT, uma...
Mar 22, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast At a moment when Nicolás Maduro commemorates 10 years in power in Venezuela, the opposition has agreed to participate in presidential elections in 2024, marking a change to their previous strategy of boycotting them. The United States has spent the past decade trying different measures to remove the Maduro dictatorship for office, most notably in 2019 recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president, a tactic that did not succeed. Now that the opposition is united, th...
Mar 16, 2023•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro, is going through a rocky period in his administration. There have been challenges on the security front. The handling of a proposed healthcare reform has created fissures in his cabinet, most significantly the departure of Alejandro Gaviria, a minister for education, who represented the technocratic faction of the cabinet. In the meantime, Petro's family members are being accused of corruption. A slower economy and inflation of above 13% a year are ...
Mar 09, 2023•25 min•Transcript available on Metacast More than 100,000 Mexicans protested last weekend against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposed changes to the country's electoral institute. The marches highlight the leader's relative vulnerability, despite his enduring approval ratings above 60%. Indeed, while the path may seem open for AMLO, as the president is known, to overhaul the country's electoral institute and bring to power a candidate of his choosing in the 2024 elections, there are judicial and politi...
Mar 01, 2023•31 min•Transcript available on Metacast Organized crime has shaped people's lives in places like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for decades. Recently, historically calmer places like Chile, Ecuador and even Uruguay have started seeing a rise in violence. What is driving this trend? In this episode, we do a broad overview of what's happening in transnational crime in the region and look at the individual dynamics in a number of countries. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publi...
Feb 23, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast Ecuador's conservative president Guillermo Lasso had his work cut out for him when he came into office in 2021. Elected partly because of a split in the Ecuadorean left, he had a weak mandate from the start. Last year, Lasso's government survived a major challenge from protests across the country. Now, another blow: voters defeated a referendum of constitutional amendments proposed by Lasso. Also, opposition candidates won municipal elections in key cities. Will Lasso finish his term? ...
Feb 15, 2023•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast In many ways, Uruguay is in a class of its own in Latin America. The country has the region's highest per capita income, its lowest poverty rate and among its lowest levels of inequality. Uruguay’s energy matrix is the region’s greenest and its economy is forecast to grow a healthy 3.6%. In a time of extreme polarization in Latin America and the rest of the world, its political culture is marked by civility. The new issue of Americas Quarterly is about Uruguay and what we can all learn from...
Feb 09, 2023•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast With the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a third term in Brazil, the international community expects the country to curb the aggressive deforestation and criminal activity seen in the Amazon in recent years. The path ahead will require astute political negotiations, argues this week's guest, Ilona Szabó, the founder of Instituto Igarapé, a think tank focused on security and development. Ilona talks to us about her expectations for Brazil's incoming government, prospects for c...
Feb 03, 2023•27 min•Transcript available on Metacast Peru's crisis continues to rage, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima. A long history of issues explains the current situation. Peru’s economic model brought growth and reduced poverty, but fell short of truly enfranchising the country’s most marginalized; the country’s political parties are considered by many to be dysfunctional. In this episode, Brian Winter and Luis Miguel Castilla, a former finance minister of Peru between 2011 and 2014, analyze what brought the country her...
Jan 26, 2023•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast Following attacks on Brazil’s capital, the focus is on putting the country back together. The challenges are immense and wide-ranging: how to deal with security forces, parts of which supported insurrectionists, and how to handle Brazil’s growing radicalized groups, without overreacting and deepening division in an already polarized public. In this episode, Brian Winter and Patricia Campos Mello analyze the current political scenario, taking stock of the insurrection and looking ahead to what it...
Jan 19, 2023•32 min•Transcript available on Metacast U.S. President Joe Biden is in Mexico this week, at a time when the administration is facing a host of issues around Latin America. In this special episode, Brian Winter and the White House's Juan Gonzalez discuss a number of them: disputes with the Mexican government over energy policy; changes in the Venezuelan opposition; new developments in the relationship with Cuba; expectations for Brazil's incoming government and what, if anything, defines Biden's approach to Latin America...
Jan 09, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the last two decades, China has been a fundamental part of Latin America's economies. But the relationship is far from static. In today’s episode, we’ll look at how trade and investment flows changed in recent years and explore Beijing’s goals in the region. Our guest, Felipe Larraín, is a former two-time finance minister of Chile and a professor of economics at Universidad Católica de Chile. He evaluates recent trends and future trajectories for direct investment, official lending, trad...
Jan 05, 2023•30 min•Transcript available on Metacast After over 30 years, Argentines can finally say, once again, that they are the world's football champions. The victory brought millions to the streets in celebration, at a time when the country is going through economic and political troubles. What does it feel like to be there this week? What consequences, if any, could this have for the economy and for politics? Will the atmosphere of national unity witnessed in recent days soothe tensions in a highly polarized society? In this episode, A...
Dec 19, 2022•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
