Last year, Katie and Ethan made a bet about when the Fed would cut interest rates. Today, as the first quarter ends and markets flatten a bit, it’s time for one of them to eat crow. As for the other, he or she will gloat, but in a measured, slightly backpedalling way that won’t be too embarrassing in the future. Also, we go long Liz Truss’s PR manager and short cicadas. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) ...
Apr 16, 2024•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Shopify was an online darling during the pandemic but has faced challenges since then. However, it has still grown into an e-commerce site that handled more than $235 billion in transactions last year. Today on the show, FT reporter Anna Mutoh joins us to talk about Shopify, its failed attempt to start delivering packages, and where the company goes next. Also we go long Japan, and long the cherry blossoms of Brooklyn. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/...
Apr 11, 2024•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Private credit is booming, nearing $2tn in assets globally. Most of that debt is being traded out of the public eye, a fact highlighted in the latest Global Financial Stability report from the IMF. Is the IMF right to be worried? We discuss. We also short media coverage of Jamie Dimon and go long vowels. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ...
Apr 09, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the last months, the stock market has been a joyride, but not for two of the biggest names in tech: Tesla and Apple. Today on the show we look at how these two former high-flyers have come down in the last months, and even wonder what their role in the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks should be. Also we go long fundamental valuations, and long the Japanese family name Sato. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Eth...
Apr 04, 2024•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Today on the show, we’re taking the long view, the very long view. Our guest is Peter Oppenheimer, the head of macro research in Europe for Goldman Sachs, and the author of Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets . We talk with him about how changes in technology and finance create cycles that shape markets, and investment returns, for decades. Also, we go long healthcare, short Tesla, and short private clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go ...
Apr 02, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast Reddit has never had a profitable year. And yet its IPO this week saw its shares skyrocket on the first day of trading. Today on the show, we ask if Reddit is a withering social network riding irrational exuberance, or a prescient play on AI’s growing need for user-generated answers. Also, we go long momentum and short illustrations. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx )...
Mar 28, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast The major stock index in the UK, the FTSE 100, includes some of the biggest and most profitable multinational companies in the world. But in recent years the index has trailed the US markets and is now considerably cheaper. Today on the show, FT reporters Ethan Wu and Rob Armstrong ask if investors are overlooking a bargain. Also we go long cocoa and long the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoff...
Mar 26, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast FT correspondent Josh Oliver spent years covering crypto and the legal troubles of Sam Bankman-Fried. Last week, he published Hype Machine , a book about it all. Today he joins us to talk about SBF’s sentencing next week, FTX caretaker boss John Ray's new letter slamming SBF, and the many ways to fleece retail investors. Also we go long money laundering, and long pressing the recline button when flying coach, no matter who is sitting behind you. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged news...
Mar 21, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast You asked, we answered. Today on the show, we team up with our sibling podcast, Behind the Money , and answer questions from listeners. We’re tackling chips (both salty and silicon), market capitalizations, the future of India and more. And for even more, head over to Behind the Money , wherever you get your podcasts ( Apple , Spotify , FT.com ). For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin (...
Mar 19, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast This week's US inflation numbers came in and they’ve remained higher for longer than many expected, or wanted. How does this change the Federal Reserve’s outlook and will the US stock market respond or continue its jaunty ascent? Today on the show Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong unpack the numbers. Also, we go long UK pasty purveyor Greggs and short Tesla. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Ma...
Mar 14, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast Factor investing came out of academic work in the 1990s, and offered a way to pick stocks without relying on judgments about stories or sectors. It’s had good years and bad years, but has recently struggled to do more than match the market. Today on the show, Ethan Wu describes his visit to see AQR’s Cliff Asness, who has been using this style of investing for decades. Also we go long Big Tech AI spending, and short gold. Link: Cliff Asness: AI is ‘still just statistics’ For a free 30-day trial ...
Mar 12, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast Market watchers have wondered for years about what really goes on inside trading firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna and Virtu. A recent ruling in a lawsuit brought by a medical company may provide some answers. Today on the show, host Ethan Wu asks FT reporter Joe Miller about the case, brought by Northwest Biotherapeutics. Also, we short Trader Joes and Temu. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) an...
Mar 07, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Rates are up and so are the markets, baffling the bears. Today on the show, FT correspondents Ethan Wu and Katie Martin look at five reasons the market might be rationally booming, including investor sentiment numbers, the AI revolution, changing expectations about interest rates and several promising economic fundamentals. Also, we short the UK budget and go long our own show. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @eth...
Mar 05, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast ESG investing has been a dominant topic in finance for the past few years. But ESG seems to be taking a back seat. Today on the show, we talk about the future of mindful investing with Simon Mundy, who writes the Moral Money newsletter for the FT. Also, we go long legacy media and Sam Bankman-Fried’s chances for a short sentence. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on ...
Feb 29, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast In the last few weeks, markets have hit highs in the US, Europe, and Japan. Today on the show, we try to understand what has powered the results. We talk about chip company Nvidia, but also renewed optimism in Japan and the arrival of a new acronym describing the leaders in Europe: ‘Granolas’. Also we go long Berkshire Hathaway, and short gilets, or as Americans call them, “vests”. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethan...
Feb 27, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast WeWork, the co-working company founded by Adam Neumann, collapsed in bankruptcy last year. And since then, the commercial real estate market has only gotten worse. Which makes this a perfect time for value investors to swoop in. Today on the show, we try to figure out if WeWork will live to co-work another day. Also, we talk about Nvidia, because everybody else is talking about Nvidia. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan W...
Feb 22, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast Of course we all know that passive investing delivers superior returns. But what if everyone is investing passively? Is there a case for active investing then? Recent research has shown that the explosion in index funds has made equities slower to respond to news. And also, it’s fun to be contrarian. So today on the show we explore cracks in the case against active investing. Also we go long RuneScape and cycling. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com...
Feb 20, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast We live in the age of supercompanies: massive, dominant players that seem to get better as they grow — for customers and investors. And they also make us uncomfortable about our rights and freedoms. Think Walmart, Apple, Meta and so many others. But how should investors view these new giants, and will the returns last forever? Also we short the world-ex-US trade and go long the gerontocracy. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow E...
Feb 15, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta just announced its first-ever dividend, which is something that rapidly growing tech companies rarely do. Dividends have been shunned in favour of corporate buybacks for decades. Is this a sign of change in the relationship between shareholders and corporations? Today on the show, we discuss the return of the dividend. Also we short internet tests, and go long frazzled-Englishwoman aesthetic. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhe...
Feb 13, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Each year the FT hosts a stockpicking contest. Today on the show, we go over our picks for 2023, which were brilliantly bad. We guessed wrong on housing, on streaming, and even on crypto. Of course, if listeners had bet against us, they would have done quite well. So naturally we’ve got five more stocks for 2024! Also, we go long Disney and short social media. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin...
Feb 08, 2024•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Demand for riskier corporate bonds is intense. The spread between higher yielding (riskier) bonds and safer Treasuries is narrowing, and nearing long-term lows. Today on the show, we try to understand the hot market for these bonds, and ask what it might tell us about the rest of the year. Also, we go long Delaware and short the reinvention of WeWork. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie...
Feb 06, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and what the bank’s troubles tell us about the commercial real estate market, regional banks and the broader economy. Also, we are both long and short workers returning to the office. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsle...
Feb 01, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast While markets around the world took off last year, China continued to stumble. Will 2024 be any different? Today on the show, Ethan Wu and Katie Martin try to understand why the country is lagging, and if its leadership can do anything about it. Also, we go short snowball derivatives, and long God’s plan for crypto. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You c...
Jan 30, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast New rules about how board members are elected could change how corporate America is governed. In March, the Starbucks shareholder meeting may be a first test for new powers long sought by unions and other activists. Today on the show, FT reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to discuss a sea change in boardroom behaviour. Also we go long M&A and short the Oscars. Link: How unions are fighting a boardroom battle at Starbucks For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to:...
Jan 25, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast While the S&P 500 just hit a new high, the FTSE 100 is down about 3 per cent for the year. Today on the show, we talk about the two markets. First, we ask if antitrust cases might slow the tech companies powering the S&P 500, and second, we try to understand why the solid multinationals that make up the FTSE 100 can’t find any love. Also, we evaluate the mullet as a metaphor for a balanced portfolio. Our position: we are long and short. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsl...
Jan 23, 2024•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on ...
Jan 18, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast As interest rates jumped, cash ruled for a lot of investors. The payment for doing absolutely nothing – in the form of money market funds and other interest-bearing instruments – was the highest in decades. But that may be changing as equity markets outperform and the soft landing feels more like a reality. Today on the show, we re-evaluate sitting on the sidelines. Also we go long hairstyles in Taiwan and short the Big Tech stocks. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to:...
Jan 16, 2024•12 min•Transcript available on Metacast Introducing Untold, a new podcast from the special investigations team at the Financial Times. In its first series, The Retreat, host Madison Marriage examines the world of the Goenka network, which promotes a type of intensive meditation known as Vipassana. Thousands of people go on Goenka retreats every year. People rave about them. But some people go to these meditation retreats, and they suffer. They might feel a deep sense of terror, or a break with reality. And on the other side, they’re n...
Jan 15, 2024•2 min•Transcript available on Metacast Today on the show, we dig into the latest inflation numbers, examining the results for shelter, goods and energy, and think about what it all means for the 10-year Treasury yield. Also, we go long darts and short Tinder’s $499 monthly Select membership. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode ...
Jan 11, 2024•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast In July, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore went head-to-head in a stock-picking competition, drafting their favourite stocks from the Magnificent Seven, the seven tech stocks dominating the markets. Today on the show, we announce the winner of our contest, and try to think about what’s in store for next year. Also we go long the rest of the S&P 500 and short AI chatbots. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu...
Jan 09, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
