Hedge funds are piling into the basis trade — a bet on the difference between the price of Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures — and they are levering up, too. Today on the show, we ask: Are we watching genius at work? And if not, how much is this all going to cost? Also, we go long all the other central banks and short comedians from Sacramento. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Marti...
Sep 19, 2023•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Robyn Grew is the new CEO of the Man Group, which manages more than $150 billion over multiple hedge funds. On September 3, she joined Katie Martin, the FT’s Markets Editor, at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House in north London. Perched on high stools behind a kitchen counter meant for a cooking demonstration, Grew and Martin discussed how the end of the low-inflation era has forced a rethink for everyone from retail investors to managers of sophisticated hedge funds. For a free 90-d...
Sep 18, 2023•38 min•Transcript available on Metacast As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Mart...
Sep 14, 2023•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_...
Sep 12, 2023•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Grayscale Investments manages funds of digital assets – cryptocurrency – for investors. They just won a case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which could eventually let it, or another manager, offer an ETF that holds bitcoin. US Financial Editor Brooke Masters and podcast regular Rob Armstrong talk with Ethan about what a world of crypto for regular investors might look like. Also we go long the US Treasury, and short the administrative state. For a free 90-day trial to t...
Sep 07, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Summer’s nearly over, autumn is approaching, and the jobs numbers came in just right. So what are we worried about? Besides the slowdown in China, there are also concerns about the sagging bond market and a drought affecting the Panama Canal. Also, we go long the education and medical sectors and short … fried cheese. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on Twitter. You can e...
Sep 05, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast The central bankers of the world are just back from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where they gathered to discuss the global economy. Two new papers dropped at the event, and together they say a lot about what worries policymakers: public debt and the Treasury markets. Also, we go long the SEC’s private fund regulations and short the neutral interest rate. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @ka...
Aug 29, 2023•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast The press has been savaging Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. And only the Unhedged Podcast is brave enough to defend him. A little bit. Well, we’re not saying he’s the greatest ever, but there are a lot of interesting reasons it is getting harder to be a secretive financial group and consistently make billions. Also, we go even longer on Japan and short our ability to make predictions about Nvidia. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer F...
Aug 24, 2023•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Zero-day options are now almost 50 percent of the options market. But what are they? And why would anyone take these bets? Today on the show, host Ethan Wu and Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the latest way to gamble on the markets and address concerns that it all might blow up. Also we go short the Republican debate and long the Bloomberg terminal. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Mar...
Aug 22, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast In an alternate corner of the multiverse, Disney is a family-friendly company that reliably puts out iconic films and turns them into billions of dollars through licensing and theme park visits. In our universe, they are fighting a tough battle for streaming viewers, reeling from a messy public CEO swap, struggling to find a hit and trying to make things better by starting a gambling operation. Today on the show, Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to watch the fireworks. Also we go long British f...
Aug 17, 2023•13 min•Transcript available on Metacast China’s economy has been growing faster than almost any other for a generation, so a slowdown is unfamiliar territory. Today on the show we look at three indicators — the CPI, exports and property sales — and try to understand why growth in China is finally slowing, and what it means for the rest of the world. Also, we go short cable news and long Argentina as a perpetual lesson in economics. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow ...
Aug 15, 2023•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast Carl Icahn is one of the most successful investors of all time, but his bet against the US economy has cost him billions of dollars. Now Hindenburg Research, the short seller, has come after Icahn and his publicly-traded fund, Icahn Enterprises. Hindenburg claims Icahn’s generous dividends are unsustainable. Today on the show, we ask: Can Icahn rally? Also, we go short investment bankers, and long stowaways. Links: - Icahn Enterprises halves dividend after short seller attack For a free 90...
Aug 10, 2023•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast Bonds started as a tool of the state, but quickly came to determine its fortunes. Today on the show, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth joins us to talk about how bonds have overtaken banking as the engine of the economy, and why that might be good and why that might be dangerous. Also, we go short the soft landing and long Nintendo. Links: How bonds ate the entire financial system For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan ...
Aug 08, 2023•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast After a decade, billions of dollars and almost five years on the public markets, Uber has at last turned a profit. In the previous quarter, it made $326 million dollars. Today on the show, we ask: What took it so long? And why is it so hard to make money matching riders with drivers? Also, we go long the 10-year US Treasury, and short cultural criticism. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (...
Aug 03, 2023•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu...
Aug 01, 2023•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.f...
Jul 27, 2023•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ...
Jul 25, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum. Links: No, private credit markets aren’t really that big For a free 90-day trial ...
Jul 20, 2023•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer ...
Jul 18, 2023•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on...
Jul 13, 2023•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit. Links: - Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ era For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ...
Jul 11, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk. Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters). Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce. Links: - Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT . For a free...
Jul 06, 2023•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy? Links: - Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs . For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) o...
Jun 29, 2023•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital. Links: Read the Unhedged newsletter on Japan For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go t...
Jun 27, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Car insurance costs in the US have shot up by 23% in the past 18 months, dwarfing the overall rise in inflation. What exactly is happening? And what lessons can be learnt? We discuss how idiosyncratic factors like a new law in Florida and even Taylor Swift’s latest tour are showing up in US prices. Also, we go short US housing and long SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his quirky presentations. Links: What’s going on with US car insurance? For a free 90- day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ht...
Jun 22, 2023•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast On paper, it’s a strong market. The S&P 500 is up more than 14 per cent this year. But for professional investors, it’s confusing. Most of the gains are driven by just seven stocks, all big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia. Take those seven out and the market is essentially flat, leaving traders wondering if they’re sitting out an AI bubble, or missing a real rally. Also, we go long gilts, which are yielding 5 per cent, and long …lettuce. Links: Stock market scramble has left in...
Jun 21, 2023•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Crypto is at a crossroads. As exchanges and currencies blow up, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to step in. But is crypto a security, like a stock? Or a tradable item of speculation, like a Beanie Baby? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu argue about the benefits and risks of regulating crypto. Also, we go short home prices, and long … the bone trade. Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletter Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on Twitte...
Jun 15, 2023•15 min•Transcript available on Metacast The US economy remains confusing. Markets continue to predict a slowdown but unemployment remains low. Today on the show, we try to figure out what job numbers, manufacturing and credit can tell us about a possible recession and an end to rate rises. Also, we are long the bros at Three Arrows Capital (sort of), and the US stock market. Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletter. Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_...
Jun 13, 2023•14 min•Transcript available on Metacast Ethan Wu, Katie Martin and other markets nerds at the Financial Times explain the big ideas behind what’s happening in finance right now. Every Tuesday and Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Jun 06, 2023•58 sec•Transcript available on Metacast 
