Angry eruptions in elections around the world are changing leaders. And many of those leaders are coming in with radical offers to the voters. But can anger change an economic outcome for the better? And will it? Today on the show, Katie Martin hosts a live forum at the Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland and discusses the topic with Leah Downey, a political theorist, and Eric Lonergan, a money manager. Also, we go long turkeys and short orange politicians. For a free 30-day trial to...
Nov 14, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast Each year economists gather in Kilkenny, Ireland for the annual Kilkenomics festival. The guests share stories in pubs and make dark jokes about economics. This year, we joined them, taping two episodes of our podcast in Cleere's Bar & Theatre. In our first instalment, we speak with financial historian Russell Napier and Martín Lousteau, a senator representing the city of Buenos Aires. The topic is financial mistakes. Also we go long anger in politics and short France. For a free 30-da...
Nov 12, 2024•26 min•Transcript available on Metacast If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and tweed and go long the American project. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email R...
Nov 07, 2024•29 min•Transcript available on Metacast It’s election day. Everyone is freaking out. But the prices of some major commodities and indices remain stoically calm. We investigate. Also, we go long nuclear power, long bees and limit long a squirrel named Peanut. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy f...
Nov 05, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast The Magnificent 7 make up seven of the eight largest stocks on the S&P 500 and they are reporting earnings this week and last. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest John Foley, who covers technology for the Lex column, take a look at all seven – with a nod to Berkshire Hathaway – and ask where they’re headed. Also we go long Reddit and long consumer sentiment. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong ...
Oct 31, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast It’s been a tough year for Boeing. It started with a door panel falling off of a plane in mid-flight. Then machinists at the company went on strike. This week, Boeing announced it would raise $19bn in an effort to keep its credit rating from being cut to junk. Today on the show, the FT’s Chicago correspondent Claire Bushey joins Rob Armstrong to discuss whether Boeing is too big to fail – and if it’s worth the wait for investors. Also, we go long Superstore and Halloween. For a free 30-day trial...
Oct 29, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast As betting markets and polls begin tentatively to suggest a Donald Trump election win, yields in 10-year Treasuries have risen. Some on Wall Street think that is because traders believe Trump will win, bringing with him inflationary spending and policies. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong discusses what the bond market knows with Derek Brower, the FT’s US political news editor. Also we go long Coca-Cola, and short a decisive election result. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged new...
Oct 24, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Citadel, XTX and Jane Street have come to dominate trading on Wall Street, and not just in equities. They now run a huge proportion of trading in currency and bonds, something the banks used to own. But where did they come from, why have so few people heard of them, and how did they get so big? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Robin Wigglesworth discuss the massive growth in the algorithmic trading firms. Also, they go long honesty, and long the upcoming FT Alphaville pub quiz in New York.&nb...
Oct 22, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Nicolai Tangen oversees Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway’s oil fund. It contains about $2tn in assets, based on money earned from drilling for oil offseas. Today on the show, Tangen talks with Katie Martin about everything from the European economy to China and Taiwan to overconcentration in the American stock markets. Also, Tangen goes long learning and short red tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can...
Oct 17, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast Grouping the majority of the world’s economies into a basket labelled “emerging markets” and trying to generalise about them is a fool’s errand. And we are perfect for the job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter discuss the EM landscape and pay particular attention to Brazil’s hot economy. Also we go long Poppy Gustafsson and short Netflix’s research department. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Arm...
Oct 15, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast Eli Lilly’s shares have surged 750 per cent over five years. Novo Nordisk’s are up about 360 per cent in the same period. It's been an awesome run for these companies. But how much longer can it last? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to the FT’s US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent Oliver Barnes about the astonishing growth in weight-loss drugs, and their future. Also we short inflation and running clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast Stocks are flying, rates are plunging, jobs are surging, but everyone says they’re anxious. What is going on? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand the many strange and sometimes contradictory things happening in the US economy. Also, we go short Spirit Halloween and long monsters. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin...
Oct 08, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast As the conflict in the Middle East expands to include Lebanon and Iran, markets are responding with surprising nonchalance. Why? And will that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and capital markets correspondent Nick Megaw try to understand why so much can go wrong in one part of the world, without roiling markets in the rest of the world. Also, we go long the Vix, and short e-cycles. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can emai...
Oct 03, 2024•16 min•Transcript available on Metacast Last week China announced it would be providing low-cost funds to investors in both equities and the property market. The nominal effects were immediate, and the country’s stock market has recently risen as much as 20 per cent. Boosting stock prices is one thing, but there is a bigger problem: can Beijing encourage more domestic spending, and less saving? Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses all this with the Unhedged newsletter's newest writer, Aiden Reiter, who, it turns out, speaks Manda...
Oct 01, 2024•17 min•Transcript available on Metacast When discussing the economy after the interest rate cuts last week, chair of the US Federal Reserve Jay Powell made an interesting comment about jobs numbers and immigration. “If you are having millions of people come into the labour force, and you are creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up,” he said. Well, mostly. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – get together to discuss how immigration might be affecting une...
Sep 26, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast As the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, a perennial theory has returned: that small and mid caps will, for a time, grow more quickly than the S&P 500. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter discuss whether that is good, or even true. Also, as the seasons change, we go long and short knitwear. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Ka...
Sep 24, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast In a massive surprise on Wednesday, one of Rob Armstrong’s predictions turned out to be right. The Fed did indeed cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A cut this big is deeply unusual, and normally happens in a crisis. But there are a lot of reasons to think we’re not in a crisis at all. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about what the Fed just did, and where the central bank is headed. Also, we go long European merger drama and short well-being at big banks. ...
Sep 19, 2024•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Apollo Global Management is publicly traded and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world. But what does it really do? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks reporters Sujeet Indap and Eric Platt to describe the parts that make up Apollo. Also they go long Boeing and long News Corp. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com .&nbs...
Sep 17, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go sho...
Sep 12, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Ro...
Sep 10, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email ...
Sep 05, 2024•23 min•Transcript available on Metacast The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsle...
Sep 03, 2024•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedo...
Aug 29, 2024•24 min•Transcript available on Metacast The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and...
Aug 27, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com...
Aug 22, 2024•18 min•Transcript available on Metacast Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pa...
Aug 20, 2024•19 min•Transcript available on Metacast How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ...
Aug 15, 2024•22 min•Transcript available on Metacast Jim Leaviss started his career in fixed income at the Bank of England, and is ending it 30 years later as the outgoing chief investment officer for fixed income of M&G Investments, which manages more than £100bn in bonds. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with Jim about what he learned over his long career. Also, the two throw down on the best albums of the 90s. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email ...
Aug 13, 2024•25 min•Transcript available on Metacast Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Rob...
Aug 08, 2024•21 min•Transcript available on Metacast On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and ...
Aug 06, 2024•20 min•Transcript available on Metacast 
