Deadline Day Roundup, Pt 1
Covering the biggest movers at the deadline: Liverpool, Spurs and Juventus. Support the show
Episodes
The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary
Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary with hosts Mike Goodman and Michael Caley
Episodes
To All The Midfielders We've Loved Before
Tanguy Ndombele is out at Tottenham. Giovani Lo Celso appears likely to follow. We look back on a number of midfielders that we've raved over before, including the two from Tottenham and Naby Keita, Adrien Rabiot, and Paul Pogba, and ask what happened with them and do we take any new conclusions from these results? Support the show
Win Probability and Leicester-Tottenham
What is win probability? Does it "work"? What do we learn from a win probability chart about the game of soccer, and would there be better ways to use such charts to explain the game? Support the show
Transfer as Kidnapping, Top Four
It's an old-fashioned top four race! Have Tottenham and Arsenal gotten good? Why haven't United gotten good? We break down what remains a close race and try to piece together the evidence that something materially changed for either North London side. Plus Chris Wood's transfer, which is funny. Support the show
January Transfers
A bunch of business nearly done or in process and bunch of interesting links. We talk Trippier and Vlahovic, Coutinho and Adama. Support the show
Holiday Mailbag, Pt 1
Josh Sargent, the ethics of sports analytics, Wilfried Ndidi and the evolution of midfield tactics, Liverpool's forward targets and more! Support the show
Making Sense of Omicron Football
A lot of games didn't happen. Most of the ones that did saw their outcomes significantly determined by how severe an omicron outbreak the clubs playing were going through. Does it mean... anything? We talk City, Chelsea, Wolves, Spurs, Arsenal and Liverppol. Support the show
Omicron and Football
The omicron variant is spreading rapidly in Europe and the US. Tottenham and Manchester United have had to cancel matches because of outbreaks that may not have been omicron but regardless are a model of what we expect to see in sports over the next month. So what is the omicron variant? What are the likely outcomes for European soccer and you know, the world and stuff? Support the show
How Can You Tell a Manager Is Working?
It's been a very short time since Steven Gerrard, Antonio Conte and Eddie Howe took over their new clubs. It's been even less time since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer left United and Ralf Rangnick took over. There are early indications of potentially significant managerial effects in the numbers of Spurs and Villa, and less so at Newcastle. What does this mean? How do we look at performance and tactical indicators in very small samples when evaluating clubs and managers? Support the show...
Ralf Rangnick
United have a new manager and a new... consultant? We look at Rangnick's limited but striking statistical profile over the last decade and the style of pressing that is evident in the numbers. And then we ask, what will he do with a United squad that is significantly but also clearly not entirely a good fit for this pressing style? Support the show
Ole Out, Arteta ??, Tuchel In
Things finally went so bad at United that Ole is out but it's not clear any of the underlying problems are solved. Arsenal got whooped and we're on the aggregates beat again. And have Chelsea turned it around (yes, we know they're in first place but unlike with Arsenal, there's a real underlying stats story here). Support the show
Premier League Error Bars, Part I
We know a lot about quality of teams in the Premier League. We also know there's a lot we don't know. Trying to nail down our questions and our uncertainties about Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham and Manchester United. Support the show
Antonio Conte
Tottenham have a new manager. He's real good at managing. What do we expect to see from Conte at Spurs (hint: he's not precisely a "defensive manager" as many PL fans have known him) and just how good is this Tottenham talent that will suddenly have an elite manager in charge of them? Support the show
The Long and Short Crisis at United
Is this, finally, the moment that United's leadership realizes they've effectively been in crisis for years? They lost 5-0 to Liverpool and the performances on the pitch really are worse than they've been in a while, but are things going to change this time? Support the show
The Premier League But More So
Opening from Really??? With Mike & Mike The Premier League season resumed and every game seemed to encapsulate a different narrative and statistical issue we've been following. Liverpool, Chelsea, Brentford, West Ham, Newcastle, what have we learned so far? Support the show
What Is Sportwashing?
Newcastle are now owned by the sovereign wealth fund of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. What is the KSA government trying to buy? Everyone calls it "sportwashing" but what exactly is that, what different forms can it take, and what will this mean for how Newcastle gets run in the next few years? Support the show
Liverpool, City, and NWSL
Two parts of this podcast: what's going on in the NWSL as the players, league and fans negotiate a crisis of abuse of power by management and ownership, and then the big game between Liverpool and Man City. Meg Linehan, "This Guy Has A Pattern": https://theathletic.com/2857633/2021/09/30/this-guy-has-a-pattern-amid-institutional-failure-former-nwsl-players-accuse-prominent-coach-of-sexual-coercion/ Molly Hensley-Clancy, "Women Describe 'Old Boys' Club" Culture ...
Superteams In Crisis, Pt 1
Barcelona's crisis just keeps rolling. Is the manager the problem? Could anything solve the problem in the near term? And then we stay in La Liga where there is no obvious Real Madrid crisis but it remains unclear that they're, like, particularly good. And while Atletico don't find the theme, Mike has takes y'all. Support the show
Is The (xG) Table Lying?
It's five matches into the season and everyone knows the table is lying... but is the xG table lying? More specifically, what can statistics tell us this early in the season, what does it mean that statistics "become reliable" after a certain period of time, and how does this inform how we're thinking about Tottenham and Chelsea and Arsenal and Everton? Caley's R2 charts: https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/10/19/9295905/premier-league-projections-and-new-expe...
Champions League: Is This Anything?
One match down in this season's Champions League and we're all struggling to get our bearings. The Mikes talk about what we've seen so far from Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG, Real Madrid and Inter Milan and ask, is this anything? Support the show
Berhalter and Southgate
Berhalter did a bunch of very interesting stuff and it didn't work at all, and Southgate did all the same uninteresting stuff and it wasn't great either. This is mostly about Berhalter because, see above, it was *interesting* but they form a useful counterpoint for thinking about international managers. (sorry for the audio gremlins, still getting used to the transatlantic podcasting and need to update our pre-record checklist) Support the show...
Ronaldo and the Media, and then All The Transfers
content notice: discussion of rape and sexual violence Caley is really mad about the media coverage of the Ronaldo transfer, and Goodman has his own thoughts about the dilemmas that drive and screw up the media here. And there was also an incredibly dramatic transfer window! United and Madrid and Barcelona and Atletico and Chelsea and around we go. We discuss Jessica Luther and Kavitha Davidson's book Loving Sports When They Don't Love You Back: https://utpress.utexas.edu/books/luther-...
Kane and Mbappe
News! Breaking! Kane stays with Tottenham and Madrid lodge a frankly unbelievable bid for Mbappe and PSG even more unbelievably turn it down. What's going on in the striker market, in the business of football at the tippy-top level, and what does it all mean? Support the show
Begin the Premier League season with your friends at the Double Pivot
We get into some hard agreements at the five minute mark and just keep rolling. Brentford, Arsenal, Leicester, Wolves, West Ham, Spurs, City, Liverpool, it's all here. Support the show
Premier League Preview, Part I
We try to rank the whole Premier League. Here's part one. Support the show
Messi Out
Lionel Messi is leaving Barcelona because they cannot pay him any money. It's a financial story and a football story and we get into it -- what is Barcelona's best way back and how long will it take them? Where is Messi going and if it's PSG, what is that gonna look like? Support the show
Mailbag of Nerdery, Pt 1
We take your questions on soccer and how it works, discussing struggleball and pressing, xG in video games and what it reveals about what analytics is, and the ongoing search for WAR. (also uh lol sorry Heather we'll actually answer your question on an upcoming pod.) Support the show
Italy Win the Euros
A dramatic game with a lot to dig in to! We talk about England's impressive opening goal and good first half, how Italy regained control in the second half and what went wrong for England in their attempt to respond in turn. And the penalties, yeah, the penalties. But really it's the stuff before that that matters. Support the show
Euros Semifinals (Unlocked Subscriber Episode)
Italy were fortunate to get through, England were a defensive powerhouse again... without Spinazzola, is there anything Italy can do? We talk about why Southgate has done a very good job despite the Saka and subs weirdness, the dynamics we expect in the final, Kyle Walker, Bonucci and Chiellini, Sterling dribbling... all the stuff. Support the show
Euros Quarterfinals
The quarterfinals were not quite as compelling as the round of 16 as matches but they set up a ton of fascinating questions for the semifinals. What is Italy without Spinazzola? Why did Spain struggle so much at even strength against Switzerland? Has Denmark run out of gas? Is there any way to get one over on this England team... if Southgate plays the good forwards at least? Support the show