Big matches in the Serie A title race get their due and then we talk about the team with the best underlying numbers in the Premier League recently, which as you surely all know is Crystal Palace. Palace: https://bsky.app/profile/scott.cannonstats.com/post/3ljdm73v3wn2o Ovalle: https://bsky.app/profile/lawsonsv.bsky.social/post/3ljjheamocs26 Support the show
Huge six-pointers all around and we take stock of the teams we covered last week (City, Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea, Bournemouth) and ask how much we need to think further about Brighton and Villa after they made up ground. Simon Tinsley's PL projections: https://analytic-fpl.streamlit.app/ Support the show
There are probably right now five teams in a race for three spots. We take a close look at Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, City, Bournemouth and Newcastle and handicap the race. It's a close one! Simon's projection website: https://analytic-fpl.streamlit.app/ Support the show
We wrote an article on financialization and soccer for Bloomberg, and it helped us crystallize our thinking on the state of the business of football. On labor costs and competition, on regulation and financialization, on Covid-era changes in the economic environment, on oligarch and state ownership and what it means for solidarity in the capital class, it's all here. A whole bunch of links. Our Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-01-29/how-football-has-become-...
After multiple contradictory developments, Tottenham landed Mathys Tel on loan from Bayern and also signed a deal with Bayern and Tel for an option that remains hard to pin down. We talk about the story here and how it probably went down (we disagree a little on this!) and what kind of player Tel is and what Tottenham can expect. Support the show
Two big matches between teams in the chase for the Champions League places. What we learned from City's new tactical approach, how Chelsea approached this match, and how Bournemouth won big. Support the show
Another weekend, another loss, another tumble further into the bottom half of the table for Tottenham and United. We talk about the problem of what a club should do when things are bad and yet there isn't a lot to be done immediately and they really just need a longer-term strategy or better execution of such. Support the show
Manchester City are adding Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis in the same window and maybe also Andrea Cambiaso. Will these signings fix the crisis at Man City? Support the show
Usually when things look a little funky in the Premier League table, you can count on an analytics podcast to tell you it's mostly variance. But this season, the wide open race for top four or five really reflects a pile-up of pretty good teams. We walk through these contenders and how they've gotten here. Support the show
A new financial fair play / registration crisis at Barcelona as a judge backs La Liga's determination that they cannot register Dani Olmo under La Liga FFP, setting him up for free agency. But Barcelona's financial situation has changed a lot in the last couple years, and the possible negative effects of this are not as stark as they were potentially in the past. And we talk a little about how Barca lost their lead in the table. El Confidential on the court ruling: https://www.elconfid...
It is still the most interesting statistical and tactical story in the Premier League. In world football probably. Pep Guardiola is trying some new tweaks on his system and his team keeps dropping points. We talk through what's changed since the slide began, what happened against Everton, and what to expect in the transfer window. Support the show
Leicester City fired Steve Cooper a few weeks ago, and this weekend the two managers in 19th and 20th place in the Premier League, Gary O'Neil of Wolves and Russell Martin of Southampton, both got the sack. We take a look at the very different stories of these three clubs, what we expect from the relegation race this season, and the trend of defensive possession at the bottom of the table. Support the show
Jim Ratcliffe sacked his Sporting Director Dan Ashworth after a pretty short term. It is not a hopeful moment for the new football system at United. We discuss what we know about how their football operations work and then move from there to talking about new manager Ruben Amorim, his system, and how the players are fitting together. Adam Crafton and Laurie Whitwell in The Athletic on Ashworth: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5978018/2024/12/08/dan-ashworth-manchester-united-exit-reasons/ Suppo...
It's a very exciting season in Italy, with multiple teams in touching distance of first place and no obvious favorite yet in December. We walk through Napoli, Atalanta, Inter, Fiorentina, Juventus, Lazio and Milan. Support the show
Five losses in a row, three in the league. And it's not really a five-match thing, the losses are somewhat fluky but performances have been down badly at City ever since Rodri got injured. We break down what's (relatively) wrong with City and why we're skeptical it can be wholly fixed. Support the show
We are joined by official Double Pivot English Correspondent Grace Robertson to discuss the new England manager Thomas Tuchel (who is not actually managing England yet) and what to expect from this team over the coming World Cup cycle. Support the show
(This is a subscriber episode from October, now unlocked for all listeners.) Poker pro Jonathan Jaffe joins the pod to talk all things stats and the practical ways we think about using probability to make decisions. See the GTO LAB podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@GTOLAB Support the show
The first manager sacked in the Premier League is Manchester United's Eric Ten Hag. He has not done a particularly good job, but there are few hallmarks of good process in his sacking. Support the show
We talk about Liverpool - Chelsea, City's struggles, Arsenal's, well, you know, and whether there is truly a big three in the Premier League as we expected. And then on to the real stuff: the Netflix romantic comedy Nobody Wants This, on which we have so many takes. Support the show
We take questions from the Double Pivot discord on these topics, we remember some center backs who scored goals, and we fight the urge to throw out the script and do a pod on Nobody Wants This. Support the show
It's in our wheelhouse.* What exactly did a legal review panel find in relation to the Premier League's "associated party transaction" rules, why are City and the PL spinning this ruling so aggressively, what is an ownership loan anyhow, and what's to come next for the financial regulation of English soccer? * we also learn the etymology of 'wheelhouse'. Support the show
In the Premier League this season, a number of the most striking team stories appear to be, when you dig into the data, fundamentally tactical stories. This means we're talking about Ten Hag and Ange and how Spurs and United have been playing, but also we look at the major shifts in style of play at Chelsea and Crystal Palace and what Fabian Hurzeler appears to be doing at Brighton. Plus our favorite Klopp story. Support the show...
An extremely strange match, and one in which Manchester City's tactical approach to the second half most particularly deserves analysis. But the draw and the injury to Rodri in the first half leave us with a peculiarly wide open Premier League title race. Much to discuss! Support the show
The Premier League has four matchdays done, and that means we have just enough data to be dangerous. What's going on with Liverpool. Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Spurs and Arsenal? Support the show
Todd Boehly and Behdad Eghbali are fighting over Chelsea. We break down the exact financial relationships here and the context for their fight, and what it tells us about the business of football in the modern era and what might come next for Chelsea. Support the show
Saudi Arabia alter their course but continue to struggle, we end up going deep on PSG's transfer window, and how wages end up getting treated differently from transfer fees in the market. We're still trying to make sense of a bunch of things! Support the show
The US Men's National Team has a new coach. He's a good one. We look back on the trajectory of Pochettino's career, his tactical ideas, and what it might mean for the USMNT. Support the show
The one with Chelsea. Also Everton and Fulham and the previews of the rest of the league will be available to subscribers on the Patreon. Support the show
All 20 teams in the Premier League and it starts here. We're going in alphabetical order and talking about how it could go right and how it could go wrong for AFC Bournemouth, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford and Brighton. Support the show
We keep waiting for the summer transfer window to shake out and it keeps not. The best example of this is how Victor Osimhen is not only still a Napoli player but does not seem to be particularly close to becoming a player on another big team. We have some theories about what's slammed the breaks on the transfers. Support the show
