Former President Donald Trump's one-time Republican rivals are standing behind him and promising to make America safe once again. Crime is down nationwide, so why Republicans say the opposite and blaming migrants? I'm Sasha Feifer, that's A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Republicans are linking migrants to a broad range of crimes and also fentanyl use in overdoses.
They want to tear down those foundations and remold us into some sort of borderless, lawless, Marxist, socialist utopia. How do Republicans plan to tackle the social problems behind those claims? And President Joe Biden has resisted calls to drop his reelection bid. And I am all you! Our fellow Democrats trying to keep him off the ballot. Stay with us, you've got all the news you need to start your day. This message comes from NPR Sponsor the Capital One Venture Card.
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He often claims that we live in a society plagued by widespread violent crime and contrary to evidence that immigrants perpetrate those crimes. That was no different last night when members of his party spoke. Under Joe Biden, the rule of law has disintegrated. Crime is rampant. Our communities are under siege. And the Democrats have handed over control of my state Arizona's border to the drug cartels.
Every day Americans are dying, murdered, assaulted, raped by illegal immigrants that the Democrats have released. That was Missouri Senator Eric Schmidt, Arizona's Senate candidate Kerry Lake and Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The speakers often talked about immigration, violent crime, and the fentanyl crisis as if they were one in the same. Here to help us sort all of this out is MPR's Sergio Martinez-Betran who covers immigration and MPR's Meg Anderson who covers criminal justice.
All right, said here. Let's start with you. A lot of the speeches talked about migrants pouring into the country. Do a little fact check for us if you could. Yeah, so it is true that on their president Biden, the Southern border saw a record high in terms of people crossing into the US without authorization. But that number has really gone down since January. In June, there was a 24% decrease in arrests at the border in comparison to May.
So no, there has not been a quote-unquote open border or invasion of the Southern border. Okay, now Republicans also accused Democrats of wanting to allow unauthorized migrants to vote. What about that one? Right, so it is illegal to vote in the US if you are not a citizen. But several Republicans last night repeatedly falsely said that Democrats want to allow unauthorized migrants to vote.
And you know, this is in line with the longstanding Republican rhetoric that elections in this country are rampant with voter fraud, although there's no evidence for that. Okay, now we heard also a lot of linking of migrants to crime. What do we know about that link? So last night we heard from the family of Rachel Morin. She was murdered on a trail in Maryland last year and a man from El Salvador who is in a country without authorization has been charged with her murder and rape.
You know, this is very tragic. This is horrible. But it is not emblematic of any particular trend, even the Republicans did try to frame it that way. Multiple studies have found that migrants are less likely to commit a crime than people born in the US. For example, Stanford University found that immigrants are 30% less likely to be imprisoned than white Americans. All right, now Republicans also linked fentanyl specifically to immigration and border policies.
Right, last night several speakers talked about how an increase of fentanyl in the US is directly related to prison and Biden's border policies. We heard that multiple times throughout the night, including from Ann Fundner, the mother of a teenager who died by fentanyl poisoning in 2022 in California. I hold Joe Biden, Mala Harris, and Gavin Newsom and every Democrat who supports open borders responsible for the death of my son. You know, there's no doubt that the number of overdose has gone up.
But what we know from the Department of Homeland Security data is that most fentanyl smuggled through the US-Mexico border happens through border-to-fentry by US citizens. All right, so let's turn now to Omega Anderson, Covers Criminal Justice for NPR. What about what was said more broadly about crime? What stood out to you? Yeah, so in addition to everything Sarah Hill just touched on several speakers pressed for harsher consequences for crimes in general.
They also criticized calls from the left to defund the police. Here's Randy Sutton, he's a former police lieutenant who spoke last night. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, well they stand with the criminals. The last few years have been devastating for our police. The war on cops is very real and it's getting Americans killed.
But researchers who study crime say whether or not crimes will rise or fall doesn't depend so much on how much is spent on police but rather how police are using their resources. And actually the big elephant in the room about crime and policing that speakers did not mention is that right now crime is actually falling. Yeah, and that's something that you wouldn't necessarily know from listening to that clip from Sutton. Yeah, it's true.
But the most recent data from the FBI indicates that violent crime, including murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, is way down after a surge in 2020. Those numbers are preliminary, they only cover about three quarters of the country, but other analysts have found similar results. Of course, these are national numbers. Some cities have seen increases, others have seen decreases. Dallas was offered as an example last night.
That city has seen declining crime for the last few years and the city's mayor, Eric Johnson, a former Democrat who switched parties last year while in office was quick to take credit for that. But I spoke to Ernesto Lopez. He's a researcher at the Council on Criminal Justice about this. He cautioned against trying to pin rising or falling crime rates on any one political party. You can have a blue city in a red county in a blue state.
So it's really unclear how you would even start to untangle all those different layers. And when you look at the country more broadly, the decline in crime happening cities in towns big and small, red and blue, it happened in the Midwest, the South, the Northeast, all over. Yeah, but research shows concern about crime has has grown since 2021 among both Democrats and Republicans, though more among Republicans. So why is that the case if crime is down? Yeah, that's actually been true for years.
Service show that people in the US just tend to think crime is up nationwide, even when it's not. And of course, there is a difference between perceptions of crime and safety and actual crime rates. That's according to Incha Rahman at the Vera Institute of Justice, which that's a criminal justice research organization.
And so if somebody walks outside and they see what looks like more disorder to them, say more open air drug use or homelessness, they conflate that with crime being up because it taps into a sense of disorder. So one woman last night from Pittsburgh talked about, you know, filthy tents and drug dealers on her street. Those are real social problems, but they aren't necessarily indicators that crime is up.
But you know, because those problems certainly exist, Rahman says that politicians can tap into that to magnify people's fears. All right. That's MPR's Meg Anderson and MPR said here Martinez, Beltrán thinks so to you both. You're welcome. President Biden has tried to make it clear he has no plans to drop out of the race for a second term. I know how to do this job. And I know the good Lord has brought us this far to leave us now.
But some members of his own party are still scrambling to try to find a way to push him off the ballot. He's afraid he's going to lose and drag the whole party down with him. And there's an important deadline just around the corner that's worrying Democratic lawmakers. MPR senior White House correspondent Tamar Keith joins us now from Wisconsin with more.
So Tam, after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, talk of trying to get Biden to drop out of the race has seemed to, you know, just fade a little bit, but you have some reporting that it has not gone away. That is correct, my colleague, Deirdre Walsh and I obtained copies of a draft letter that has been circulating among House Democrats. It's a letter to Democratic national committee members, the people who govern the party.
And it's about the roll call vote that would officially make President Biden the party's nominee. This year, the party is decided to hold it early ahead of the convention in Chicago in August. And normally this kind of obscure party technicality wouldn't get noticed, but these are not normal times. No, they are not. So why is the Democratic party planning to hold this vote before the convention? It goes back to May, long before the president's devastating debate performance last month.
And the deadline to get Biden's name on the ballot in the state of Ohio was causing concern. If they waited until the convention, there was a chance that Ohio would have kept his name off the ballot. So the DNC decided to hold this early virtual roll call vote to get around the problem. All right. So what's the concern then for Democratic lawmakers? Well, there's a twist. Ohio's GOP controlled legislature eventually passed a fix for that law.
So these Democratic lawmakers say there's no longer a need for an early virtual roll call vote. They say the party can and should wait for the convention like usual. And they accused the DNC of sticking with the plan for political reasons, because the vote would likely mean that Biden is the official nominee well before delegates show up in Chicago next month. That would make it much harder for any sort of last minute challenger or floor fight. All right.
So what does the DNC and the campaign say about that? The chairman of the Democratic National Committee insisted this is not being accelerated for political reasons. And when pressed on it, Biden deputy campaign manager, Quentin Fulkes, said the campaign just doesn't trust Ohio Republicans on this ballot situation. They solved it with a legislative fix. We move forward. We instituted this before they had a fix.
And we're going to continue on that path because we're not going to leave it up to them to change the rules again. A senior Democratic consultant who works with House members told Deirdre that this insistence by the DNC and Biden campaign rubs people the wrong way. And with regards to this letter, it hasn't been sent yet. And it isn't clear who will sign it. But the lawmakers circulating it said if the party sticks with this early vote, it's going to hurt morale in the party.
So when is this roll call vote supposed to happen? We don't know yet. There are two DNC committees that are meeting on Friday and Sunday to set the rules and the date. As it stands right now, this effort to boot Biden still faces serious obstacles like finding a candidate willing to put their neck out and say they want to replace Biden. And also Biden himself who's repeatedly said he is staying in the race. And thus far, this pressure campaign isn't working to get him out. MPR's Tamara Keith.
Thanks a lot, Tim. You're welcome. And that's a first for Wednesday, July 17th, the May Martinez. And I'm Sasha Fifer. Your next listen is considered this from NPR. We hear it up first. Give you the three big stories of the day. Our consider this colleagues take a different approach. They dive into a single news story and what it means to you in just 15 minutes. Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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