On Wednesday Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell announced that US interest rates would remain unchanged. But the monetary policy committee is clearly worried that tariffs might slow growth and increase inflation. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why markets weren't worried by what they heard from the Fed. Also they go long Twitter (X… whatever) and short Tesla. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffe...
Mar 20, 2025•23 min
As the US retreats from global commitments, Europe is re-arming. That will change the maths for companies and debt loads, in countries as different as Poland, Germany, Spain and Portugal. Today on the second part of Unhedged’s visit to the IE Business School in Madrid, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with the FT’s Spain and Portugal correspondent Barney Jopson about the increase in military spending, and how it will all be paid for. Also they take questions from the audience. For a fre...
Mar 18, 2025•32 min
As Donald Trump continues to upend the US economy with a bizarre series of tariff announcements and reversals, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong head to Spain. Today on the show, they host a live forum at the IE Business School in Madrid, covering an administration zig-zagging like a squirrel at rush hour and a market cowering in fear. Also, they take some questions from the audience. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert A...
Mar 13, 2025•28 min
Investors have long been wary of China, piling into US markets, no matter what the climate. But is that changing? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to Ruchir Sharma, a columnist for the FT and investor at Rockefeller Capital Management, about the case for China now. Also they go long BYD, and long Vietnam. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a tr...
Mar 11, 2025•22 min
The president proposes and the markets dispose … of recent gains. Tariffs, deportations, budget cuts, political isolation and other “exciting” new plans seem to be unsettling investors, who are leaving US equities and heading for the safety of bonds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and head of the Lex column John Foley look at some of the falling stocks and try to figure out how much risk investors will ultimately take off the table. Also they go long potash and long Tesla. For a free 30-day tr...
Mar 06, 2025•23 min
President Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed his desire for lower interest rates. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, responding to persistent inflation, has kept rates higher. And keeps mentioning that he can’t be fired. But is this true? Today on the show, the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles joins Katie Martin to discuss an upcoming legal case that might increase the president’s ability to fire the heads of agencies. Also we go short the Atlanta Fed and long vowels. For a free 30-...
Mar 04, 2025•21 min
President Donald Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine has been a great success … for European defence companies. Meanwhile, traders are selling American defence contractors, and the US market is sluggish. Now the president is threatening huge tariffs on Europe. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter struggle to understand what the Trump administration actually wants and how far the American exceptionalism trade can really go. Also we go long the dollar and long the Oscars. For a free 30-day...
Feb 27, 2025•18 min
Have the vibes shifted? Slowing growth and stubborn inflation seem to be putting a chill on a once exuberant market. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask if this all adds up to “stagflation”, one of the scariest words in the economic lexicon. Also they go short US defence stocks. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of this episode on FT....
Feb 25, 2025•21 min
The markets are booming but there are fewer and fewer new entrants. And they don’t seem to be exciting to investors. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter talk with Jenn Hughes about her latest newsletter on the weak IPO market. Also they go long the 10-year treasury and short the Treasury secretary’s plans to “monetize” the federal balance sheet. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Marti...
Feb 20, 2025•23 min
Donald Trump and his Treasury secretary have signaled their support for a sovereign wealth fund. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris also discussed it. But is it a good idea? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter make the case for and against a radical new plan for American capital. Also, they go long the reappearance of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma, and long Diet Coke. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong a...
Feb 18, 2025•20 min
Coverage of President Donald Trump’s tariffs tends to focus on their effect on American consumers. That’s important, but it’s only half the story, or less. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin welcome Alan Beattie to discuss how the rest of the world is responding to the Trump tariffs, and what leverage they might have. Also, they go long eggs, and the neutral interest rate, and short the giant panda. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhed...
Feb 13, 2025•26 min
Gold is traditionally a hedge against instability. And it’s reaching record highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the demand for gold and try to figure out if the market is trying to tell us something. They also short the penny and go long tech bro drama. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on A...
Feb 11, 2025•25 min
European stock indices have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss why investors are finally looking beyond US stocks and why Donald Trump’s policies could accidentally benefit global exporters. Also, we go short posthumous publishing and 24-hour stock trading. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcrip...
Feb 06, 2025•20 min
The tariffs have arrived. Canada and Mexico have negotiated delays, China is retaliating, and investors are trying to figure out what comes next. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss what Donald Trump gains from following through on his campaign promises and whether there are limits to how much America can boss other countries around. Also, we go short London’s tea culture and long HBO’s ‘The Penguin’. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/un...
Feb 04, 2025•22 min
It’s time for the FT’s annual stockpicking contest, where the money is fake but the glory is real. The FT’s Alan Livsey joins Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter to discuss what bets they think will pay off in a potentially volatile year. Now more than ever, this is not investing advice. Enter the contest at ft.com/stockpick2025 . For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a tra...
Jan 30, 2025•24 min
DeepSeek’s announcement that it has built competitive AI using many fewer resources than big US rivals stunned the markets this week. Chipmakers and power companies plunged in value, and Sam Altman, boss of OpenAI, pronounced himself ‘legit’ invigorated. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what China’s advances mean for US markets. Also, they organize a fight between their children. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhed...
Jan 28, 2025•23 min
Donald Trump’s first week in office has produced a barrage of policies and power moves. But which of them will happen? Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter try to figure out which announcements are real, and which of those will move markets. Also they short the peso and go long the enjoyment of watching the president and Elon Musk in the weirdest buddy movie of all time. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You c...
Jan 23, 2025•25 min
Each year the Financial Times hosts a stock-picking contest for its journalists and readers. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong explain the logic behind their absolute bombs. And then to find out how it’s done, they speak with their colleague Kadhim Shubber, who won the contest last year. Also they go long Gail’s Bakery and short strategic ambiguity. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Kati...
Jan 21, 2025•21 min
Reports of the demise of US inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the continuing high numbers and what the Fed might do about it this year. Also they go long Ohio State and short New Year’s resolutions. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com...
Jan 16, 2025•16 min
US bonds and UK gilts are tracking each other, and heading down. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin try to figure out whether to blame chancellor Rachel Reeves, or the whole world. Also, Rob goes short pretentious editorials and Katie coins a new term, “Brovid”, to describe the mind virus causing a notable increase in edgelords. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@f...
Jan 14, 2025•20 min
Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise. In recent months, Party City, Big Lots, Spirit Airlines, and other discount providers have declared bankruptcy. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why, and what it means for the overall economy. Also they go long ceramics and long the Arctic. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of t...
Jan 09, 2025•18 min
Tariffs. Tax cuts. Geopolitics. Artificial intelligence. Inflation. Mass deportations. Rate cuts or rises. The year ahead is filled with question marks. Meanwhile, markets are historically high. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what could go right, wrong and straight down the middle. Also, they short air fryers and go long jewellery for men. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstro...
Jan 07, 2025•21 min
Happy new year, Unhedged listeners! Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter answer questions from the listeners on everything from the takeover of passive investing to favorite metrics. Also, we forgo long and short and announce our new year’s resolutions. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Aca...
Jan 02, 2025•24 min
The US government owns many billions of dollars worth of bitcoin, confiscated from bad actors such as the Silk Road marketplace. Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he would not be selling it. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill suggesting the government buy more and create a national strategic reserve of crypto currency. Today on the show, Katie Martin asks FT contributor Toby Nangle if any of this makes any sense at all. Also, we go long Christmas stuffing and long dinosaurs....
Dec 26, 2024•19 min
The Federal Reserve announced a small cut yesterday. Normally, that heartens markets. But we are not in normal times, and somewhat measured comments about the coming year seemed to have spooked traders. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out what happened, and why. Also we go long holiday wish lists and short gift cards. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhe...
Dec 19, 2024•20 min
The road to riches used to be paved with juicy IPOs. But that does not seem to be the case anymore. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Craig Coben, a former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America, and now a contributing writer for FT Alphaville. They discuss regulation and demand, and the growing role of private equity in corporate ownership. Also, they go short France and long melodic house music. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www....
Dec 17, 2024•22 min
There have been very few mergers and acquisitions in the past four years, but many dealmakers say that’s about to change. At least that’s according to reporting by James Fontanella-Khan, our guest on the show today. Fontanella-Khan is the FT’s US deals reporter, and he speaks with Rob Armstrong about the shape of deals to come, and how anti-trust policy might look over the next four years. Also, they go long vintage clothing and long the prospects of a merger between Giorgia Meloni and Elon Musk...
Dec 12, 2024•22 min
Ukraine, Syria, Moldova, France, Israel, South Korea, the US…. Power is being challenged and redistributed around the world. But how are markets reacting, which changes truly matter to the global multinational corporations that power the markets, and why are markets so bad at predicting these upheavals? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter take stock of the rearrangements. Also they go long scarves and crappy Santas. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://w...
Dec 10, 2024•21 min
Among his many promises, president-elect Donald Trump is promising to drive down the price of energy in the US. But how realistic a plan is that? What levers does he have to pull? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk about how oil is priced and what moves that price. Also they go long parliamentary democracy and short brunch. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@f...
Dec 05, 2024•21 min
Ruchir Sharma, an investor and frequent contributor to the FT, came out and said it the other day: The US stock market is in a bubble. But is it a bubble or just the rational behavior of investors who believe the US really is exceptional? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the outlandishly good performance of the US market, and ask how long it can last. Also they go long Elon Musk’s pay package and short the transatlantic bug. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsle...
Dec 03, 2024•20 min
