How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https:...
Nov 28, 2024•23 min
President-elect Donald Trump has just announced “Day 1” tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in addition to previously promised tariffs on China. Tariffs will definitely affect domestic prices, but how much, and will they truly cause catastrophic inflation? Today on the show, guest host Josh Oliver discusses the tariffs with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, they short the new Treasury secretary and the 900-year-old Smithfield meat market in the City of London. For a free 30-day trial t...
Nov 26, 2024•15 min
It is the season for giving and banks are giving us a lot of year-ahead reports. Katie, Robert and Aiden actually read these things, and today on the show they discuss what they’ve learned. It all raises questions about very narrow corporate spreads, an AI bubble and what happens if things go right in the jobs market, or wrong in the Middle East. Also we go long hair products, short turkey and limit long Josh Kushner’s big bet against diversification. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged news...
Nov 21, 2024•25 min
Opinions are cheap so we’re making it up in volume, with three takes on the future of the economy. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – gather to discuss looming inflation, the next 25 years of returns from the stock market and the challenges facing the so-called ‘department of government efficiency’. Also we go long Disney and long Turkey, the country. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedg...
Nov 19, 2024•20 min
Angry eruptions in elections around the world are changing leaders. And many of those leaders are coming in with radical offers to the voters. But can anger change an economic outcome for the better? And will it? Today on the show, Katie Martin hosts a live forum at the Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland and discusses the topic with Leah Downey, a political theorist, and Eric Lonergan, a money manager. Also, we go long turkeys and short orange politicians. For a free 30-day trial to the U...
Nov 14, 2024•29 min
Each year economists gather in Kilkenny, Ireland for the annual Kilkenomics festival. The guests share stories in pubs and make dark jokes about economics. This year, we joined them, taping two episodes of our podcast in Cleere's Bar & Theatre. In our first instalment, we speak with financial historian Russell Napier and Martín Lousteau, a senator representing the city of Buenos Aires. The topic is financial mistakes. Also we go long anger in politics and short France. For a free 30-day tria...
Nov 12, 2024•26 min
If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and tweed and go long the American project. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert ...
Nov 07, 2024•29 min
It’s election day. Everyone is freaking out. But the prices of some major commodities and indices remain stoically calm. We investigate. Also, we go long nuclear power, long bees and limit long a squirrel named Peanut. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for mor...
Nov 05, 2024•20 min
The Magnificent 7 make up seven of the eight largest stocks on the S&P 500 and they are reporting earnings this week and last. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest John Foley, who covers technology for the Lex column, take a look at all seven – with a nod to Berkshire Hathaway – and ask where they’re headed. Also we go long Reddit and long consumer sentiment. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at rob...
Oct 31, 2024•21 min
It’s been a tough year for Boeing. It started with a door panel falling off of a plane in mid-flight. Then machinists at the company went on strike. This week, Boeing announced it would raise $19bn in an effort to keep its credit rating from being cut to junk. Today on the show, the FT’s Chicago correspondent Claire Bushey joins Rob Armstrong to discuss whether Boeing is too big to fail – and if it’s worth the wait for investors. Also, we go long Superstore and Halloween. For a free 30-day trial...
Oct 29, 2024•19 min
As betting markets and polls begin tentatively to suggest a Donald Trump election win, yields in 10-year Treasuries have risen. Some on Wall Street think that is because traders believe Trump will win, bringing with him inflationary spending and policies. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong discusses what the bond market knows with Derek Brower, the FT’s US political news editor. Also we go long Coca-Cola, and short a decisive election result. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go t...
Oct 24, 2024•22 min
Citadel, XTX and Jane Street have come to dominate trading on Wall Street, and not just in equities. They now run a huge proportion of trading in currency and bonds, something the banks used to own. But where did they come from, why have so few people heard of them, and how did they get so big? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Robin Wigglesworth discuss the massive growth in the algorithmic trading firms. Also, they go long honesty, and long the upcoming FT Alphaville pub quiz in New York. Re...
Oct 22, 2024•22 min
Nicolai Tangen oversees Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway’s oil fund. It contains about $2tn in assets, based on money earned from drilling for oil offseas. Today on the show, Tangen talks with Katie Martin about everything from the European economy to China and Taiwan to overconcentration in the American stock markets. Also, Tangen goes long learning and short red tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email...
Oct 17, 2024•21 min
Grouping the majority of the world’s economies into a basket labelled “emerging markets” and trying to generalise about them is a fool’s errand. And we are perfect for the job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter discuss the EM landscape and pay particular attention to Brazil’s hot economy. Also we go long Poppy Gustafsson and short Netflix’s research department. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong...
Oct 15, 2024•20 min
Eli Lilly’s shares have surged 750 per cent over five years. Novo Nordisk’s are up about 360 per cent in the same period. It's been an awesome run for these companies. But how much longer can it last? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to the FT’s US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent Oliver Barnes about the astonishing growth in weight-loss drugs, and their future. Also we short inflation and running clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: http...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min
Stocks are flying, rates are plunging, jobs are surging, but everyone says they’re anxious. What is going on? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand the many strange and sometimes contradictory things happening in the US economy. Also, we go short Spirit Halloween and long monsters. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]...
Oct 08, 2024•21 min
As the conflict in the Middle East expands to include Lebanon and Iran, markets are responding with surprising nonchalance. Why? And will that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and capital markets correspondent Nick Megaw try to understand why so much can go wrong in one part of the world, without roiling markets in the rest of the world. Also, we go long the Vix, and short e-cycles. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robe...
Oct 03, 2024•16 min
Last week China announced it would be providing low-cost funds to investors in both equities and the property market. The nominal effects were immediate, and the country’s stock market has recently risen as much as 20 per cent. Boosting stock prices is one thing, but there is a bigger problem: can Beijing encourage more domestic spending, and less saving? Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses all this with the Unhedged newsletter's newest writer, Aiden Reiter, who, it turns out, speaks Manda...
Oct 01, 2024•17 min
When discussing the economy after the interest rate cuts last week, chair of the US Federal Reserve Jay Powell made an interesting comment about jobs numbers and immigration. “If you are having millions of people come into the labour force, and you are creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up,” he said. Well, mostly. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – get together to discuss how immigration might be affecting une...
Sep 26, 2024•19 min
As the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, a perennial theory has returned: that small and mid caps will, for a time, grow more quickly than the S&P 500. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter discuss whether that is good, or even true. Also, as the seasons change, we go long and short knitwear. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Ma...
Sep 24, 2024•22 min
In a massive surprise on Wednesday, one of Rob Armstrong’s predictions turned out to be right. The Fed did indeed cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A cut this big is deeply unusual, and normally happens in a crisis. But there are a lot of reasons to think we’re not in a crisis at all. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about what the Fed just did, and where the central bank is headed. Also, we go long European merger drama and short well-being at big banks. For a...
Sep 19, 2024•18 min
Apollo Global Management is publicly traded and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world. But what does it really do? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks reporters Sujeet Indap and Eric Platt to describe the parts that make up Apollo. Also they go long Boeing and long News Corp. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Read a tr...
Sep 17, 2024•22 min
Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go sho...
Sep 12, 2024•22 min
Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert A...
Sep 10, 2024•21 min
By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Arms...
Sep 05, 2024•23 min
The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https:...
Sep 03, 2024•18 min
Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Y...
Aug 29, 2024•24 min
The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie...
Aug 27, 2024•22 min
Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected]...
Aug 22, 2024•18 min
Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong at [email protected] and Katie Martin at [email protected] . Register now for the FT Weekend Festival, and claim £24 off your pass using pro...
Aug 20, 2024•19 min
