Researchers at the University of Chicago took a fairly standard large language model of AI and fed it a bunch of balance sheets and income statements and asked it to make predictions about earnings. In backtests, AI beat human calls by a small margin, and outperformed the market generally. Have fund managers been dealt yet another kill shot? Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong discuss, and go long shareholder commitments, and the musical genius of Yuja Wang. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged...
Jun 11, 2024•20 min
Nvidia continues its rocket-like rise: Investors have piled in, as have day traders who play the stock with options. This is causing banks and market makers to load up on shares in order to cover trades. It's a feedback loop traders call the gamma squeeze, and some are concerned it’s distorting markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks about Nvidia and the gamma squeeze with correspondent George Steer. Also we go long the ECB and short proposals for a Texas stock exchange. For a free 30-day...
Jun 06, 2024•17 min
It’s a big year for democracy. Voters in Mexico and India just went to the polls. Elections in the UK and US are still to come. On today’s show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk through how markets are responding to the elections in Mexico and India. And they analyse how markets might react to the UK and US elections. Also, we go short slugs and stock-based compensation. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Robert Armstrong a...
Jun 04, 2024•21 min
At a recent meeting of the G20, Brazil invited economist Gabriel Zucman to address the most powerful nations in the world, and argue for a global tax on the super-rich. Today on the show, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu joins Robert Armstrong to discuss whether a worldwide tax on the very richest could even happen, and how it might work. Also, we short the commercial real estate crisis and go long liberal democracy. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://w...
May 30, 2024•22 min
Red Lobster used to be a respectable place to eat too much seafood. Now it’s bankrupt. Today on the show, host Rob Armstrong and the FT's Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap put on their bibs and pick apart the exoskeleton of a fast-casual icon. They talk about pasta water, real estate, and whether the real killer was the all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. Also we go long Chili’s, and deliver the results of an informal art poll. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft...
May 28, 2024•20 min
Commercial property values in the UK and the US have been slow to adjust to the sharp increase in interest rates. Are sellers refusing to accept reality? Or has the property economy simply put itself on hold? Joshua Oliver covers real estate (and crypto) for the FT, and he walks us through it all. And talks about crypto. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode ...
May 23, 2024•19 min
The price of cocoa has exploded. Over the past year, it’s up about 300 percent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and commodities reporter Susannah Savage try to figure out what’s behind the run-up in cocoa, olive oil and other staples. Also we go long gardening and short AI copying our voices. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. Se...
May 21, 2024•15 min
Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and one of the most unusual. Its founder, Ray Dalio, has retired and moved on to other things, such as deep sea submarines. Can the new chief executive keep the group’s legendary returns going? Today on the show, reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins Rob Armstrong to discuss. Also we go long Walmart and short the troubled merger of Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft...
May 16, 2024•19 min
‘Roaring Kitty’, aka Keith Gill, aka the GameStop memelord, leaned in again this week, sparking a massive rally in the retailer and its sidekick, AMC. FT correspondents Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take stock of the mayhem and ask if it's a sign that the animal spirits are back. Also we short gruelling exams and go long utilities. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of t...
May 14, 2024•17 min
It's high noon for Paramount Studios, one of the most legendary names in Hollywood. In one corner, Wall Street and private equity. In the other corner, talented producer David Ellison, head of Skydance. OK, to be fair, he’s partnering with private equity, too. Today on the show, we break down the boss battle for Paramount with deals editor James Fontanella-Khan. Also we talk about sports. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Kat...
May 10, 2024•19 min
The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway this past weekend was a celebration of Warren Buffett’s unparalleled record and his legendary charm. Today on the show, FT correspondents Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong talk about recent investments in energy stocks, Apple and the ultimate question: succession. Also, we invent a new festival – TrackerFest – and short climate credit shenanigans. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Kati...
May 07, 2024•20 min
The Federal Reserve this week chose to hold interest rates unchanged. But inflation still continues to outpace its 2 per cent target. Today on the show, capital markets correspondent Kate Duguid joins us to ask if the US central bank is making the wrong decisions, and what options they have. Also, we short Starbucks and dissect Ray Dalio's bet on civil war. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com...
May 02, 2024•18 min
The American economy is strong — and the dollar is extremely expensive. Today on the show, we talk about how the strong dollar affects the rest of the world, pressuring importers, benefitting manufacturers, and causing capital to flow into the United States. Also we go long McDonald’s and long the British pub. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com H...
Apr 30, 2024•16 min
The FT’s Rob Armstrong sits down with Tim Harford, host of the podcast Cautionary Tales , to discuss Ponzi schemes, how they spiral out of control and what differentiates them from bubbles — and from Amazon. Plus, we go long pyramid schemes and short, as usual, crypto. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Check out Tim’s podcast, Cautionary Tales , and the full story on Sam Israel’s Ponzi scheme here . Read a transcript of this episode on FT....
Apr 26, 2024•17 min
Diamond output by the mining giant De Beers is down 23% this quarter. Demand is slowing as a bounce from the coronavirus pandemic wears off and synthetic diamonds eat into market share. Today on the show, we try to understand the market for diamonds. Also, we go short Charles Dickens in the theatre and short UK weather. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode o...
Apr 25, 2024•13 min
When the S&P 500 finally let Tesla join the index a few years ago, its stock soared. Similarly, the fortunes of countries have changed when their debt and equities have been included on one index or another. Today on the show, we talk to FT contributor and former fund manager Toby Nangle about who runs these indexes, and if they should be regulated. Also we go long the FTSE 100 and short El Salvador’s debt cycle. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/un...
Apr 23, 2024•15 min
While we’ve been watching Nvidia and other sparkly tech stocks, oil has been sneaking up to touch $90 a barrel. Today on the show, we talk about oil supplies, demand and the role of geopolitics. Also, we go short Ark’s Cathie Wood and Unhedged’s Ethan Wu. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more informati...
Apr 18, 2024•19 min
Last year, Katie and Ethan made a bet about when the Fed would cut interest rates. Today, as the first quarter ends and markets flatten a bit, it’s time for one of them to eat crow. As for the other, he or she will gloat, but in a measured, slightly backpedalling way that won’t be too embarrassing in the future. Also, we go long Liz Truss’s PR manager and short cicadas. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Ka...
Apr 16, 2024•15 min
Shopify was an online darling during the pandemic but has faced challenges since then. However, it has still grown into an e-commerce site that handled more than $235 billion in transactions last year. Today on the show, FT reporter Anna Mutoh joins us to talk about Shopify, its failed attempt to start delivering packages, and where the company goes next. Also we go long Japan, and long the cherry blossoms of Brooklyn. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/...
Apr 11, 2024•15 min
Private credit is booming, nearing $2tn in assets globally. Most of that debt is being traded out of the public eye, a fact highlighted in the latest Global Financial Stability report from the IMF. Is the IMF right to be worried? We discuss. We also short media coverage of Jamie Dimon and go long vowels. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan....
Apr 09, 2024•20 min
In the last months, the stock market has been a joyride, but not for two of the biggest names in tech: Tesla and Apple. Today on the show we look at how these two former high-flyers have come down in the last months, and even wonder what their role in the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks should be. Also we go long fundamental valuations, and long the Japanese family name Sato. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @eth...
Apr 04, 2024•15 min
Today on the show, we’re taking the long view, the very long view. Our guest is Peter Oppenheimer, the head of macro research in Europe for Goldman Sachs, and the author of Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets . We talk with him about how changes in technology and finance create cycles that shape markets, and investment returns, for decades. Also, we go long healthcare, short Tesla, and short private clubs. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ht...
Apr 02, 2024•21 min
Reddit has never had a profitable year. And yet its IPO this week saw its shares skyrocket on the first day of trading. Today on the show, we ask if Reddit is a withering social network riding irrational exuberance, or a prescient play on AI’s growing need for user-generated answers. Also, we go long momentum and short illustrations. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X....
Mar 28, 2024•17 min
The major stock index in the UK, the FTSE 100, includes some of the biggest and most profitable multinational companies in the world. But in recent years the index has trailed the US markets and is now considerably cheaper. Today on the show, FT reporters Ethan Wu and Rob Armstrong ask if investors are overlooking a bargain. Also we go long cocoa and long the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Fol...
Mar 26, 2024•19 min
FT correspondent Josh Oliver spent years covering crypto and the legal troubles of Sam Bankman-Fried. Last week, he published Hype Machine , a book about it all. Today he joins us to talk about SBF’s sentencing next week, FTX caretaker boss John Ray's new letter slamming SBF, and the many ways to fleece retail investors. Also we go long money laundering, and long pressing the recline button when flying coach, no matter who is sitting behind you. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter...
Mar 21, 2024•19 min
You asked, we answered. Today on the show, we team up with our sibling podcast, Behind the Money , and answer questions from listeners. We’re tackling chips (both salty and silicon), market capitalizations, the future of India and more. And for even more, head over to Behind the Money , wherever you get your podcasts ( Apple , Spotify , FT.com ). For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_mart...
Mar 19, 2024•20 min
This week's US inflation numbers came in and they’ve remained higher for longer than many expected, or wanted. How does this change the Federal Reserve’s outlook and will the US stock market respond or continue its jaunty ascent? Today on the show Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong unpack the numbers. Also, we go long UK pasty purveyor Greggs and short Tesla. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin (...
Mar 14, 2024•20 min
Factor investing came out of academic work in the 1990s, and offered a way to pick stocks without relying on judgments about stories or sectors. It’s had good years and bad years, but has recently struggled to do more than match the market. Today on the show, Ethan Wu describes his visit to see AQR’s Cliff Asness, who has been using this style of investing for decades. Also we go long Big Tech AI spending, and short gold. Link: Cliff Asness: AI is ‘still just statistics’ For a free 30-day trial ...
Mar 12, 2024•19 min
Market watchers have wondered for years about what really goes on inside trading firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna and Virtu. A recent ruling in a lawsuit brought by a medical company may provide some answers. Today on the show, host Ethan Wu asks FT reporter Joe Miller about the case, brought by Northwest Biotherapeutics. Also, we short Trader Joes and Temu. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Kati...
Mar 07, 2024•17 min
Rates are up and so are the markets, baffling the bears. Today on the show, FT correspondents Ethan Wu and Katie Martin look at five reasons the market might be rationally booming, including investor sentiment numbers, the AI revolution, changing expectations about interest rates and several promising economic fundamentals. Also, we short the UK budget and go long our own show. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ...
Mar 05, 2024•19 min
