Demand for riskier corporate bonds is intense. The spread between higher yielding (riskier) bonds and safer Treasuries is narrowing, and nearing long-term lows. Today on the show, we try to understand the hot market for these bonds, and ask what it might tell us about the rest of the year. Also, we go long Delaware and short the reinvention of WeWork. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie...
Feb 06, 2024•16 min
New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and what the bank’s troubles tell us about the commercial real estate market, regional banks and the broader economy. Also, we are both long and short workers returning to the office. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsle...
Feb 01, 2024•17 min
While markets around the world took off last year, China continued to stumble. Will 2024 be any different? Today on the show, Ethan Wu and Katie Martin try to understand why the country is lagging, and if its leadership can do anything about it. Also, we go short snowball derivatives, and long God’s plan for crypto. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You c...
Jan 30, 2024•19 min
New rules about how board members are elected could change how corporate America is governed. In March, the Starbucks shareholder meeting may be a first test for new powers long sought by unions and other activists. Today on the show, FT reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to discuss a sea change in boardroom behaviour. Also we go long M&A and short the Oscars. Link: How unions are fighting a boardroom battle at Starbucks For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to:...
Jan 25, 2024•16 min
While the S&P 500 just hit a new high, the FTSE 100 is down about 3 per cent for the year. Today on the show, we talk about the two markets. First, we ask if antitrust cases might slow the tech companies powering the S&P 500, and second, we try to understand why the solid multinationals that make up the FTSE 100 can’t find any love. Also, we evaluate the mullet as a metaphor for a balanced portfolio. Our position: we are long and short. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsl...
Jan 23, 2024•14 min
There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on ...
Jan 18, 2024•16 min
As interest rates jumped, cash ruled for a lot of investors. The payment for doing absolutely nothing – in the form of money market funds and other interest-bearing instruments – was the highest in decades. But that may be changing as equity markets outperform and the soft landing feels more like a reality. Today on the show, we re-evaluate sitting on the sidelines. Also we go long hairstyles in Taiwan and short the Big Tech stocks. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to:...
Jan 16, 2024•12 min
Introducing Untold, a new podcast from the special investigations team at the Financial Times. In its first series, The Retreat, host Madison Marriage examines the world of the Goenka network, which promotes a type of intensive meditation known as Vipassana. Thousands of people go on Goenka retreats every year. People rave about them. But some people go to these meditation retreats, and they suffer. They might feel a deep sense of terror, or a break with reality. And on the other side, they’re n...
Jan 15, 2024•2 min
Today on the show, we dig into the latest inflation numbers, examining the results for shelter, goods and energy, and think about what it all means for the 10-year Treasury yield. Also, we go long darts and short Tinder’s $499 monthly Select membership. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode ...
Jan 11, 2024•18 min
In July, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore went head-to-head in a stock-picking competition, drafting their favourite stocks from the Magnificent Seven, the seven tech stocks dominating the markets. Today on the show, we announce the winner of our contest, and try to think about what’s in store for next year. Also we go long the rest of the S&P 500 and short AI chatbots. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu...
Jan 09, 2024•20 min
After a roaring December, the markets cooled a bit in the first days of 2024. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong think big thoughts about long yields in treasuries, the historical correlation of equities and debt, and the Big Tech stocks as an asset class. Also, we go long Alibaba and short commercial real estate. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx )...
Jan 04, 2024•19 min
Today on the show, we’re looking at the year ahead, with AI by our side. Our colleague Bryce Elder at the FT built an online quiz that pits AI against analysts in writing prose about the future. We take the quiz, and make our own predictions. Also we go long and short. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com . Read a transcript ...
Jan 02, 2024•20 min
Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dole out the first-ever Unhedgies, awards for categories such as the best overall deal, scam, IPO, central banker – we do not choose Jay Powell, by the way — and a few others we came up with on the spot. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com . Read a trans...
Dec 21, 2023•21 min
Last week’s Fed statements revealed that its Open Market Committee was thinking about the possibility of interest rate cuts at some point, and the markets responded with insane glee, unexpectedly sending the S&P 500 up to nearly an all-time high. Today on the show, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what exactly it all means, and what could derail the suddenly rosy future. Also, we go long fraud and short Christmas cards. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged ...
Dec 19, 2023•18 min
Jonathan Guthrie has been covering finance for 37 years. Today on the show, he talks with hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong about what he’s learnt, covering everything from market collapses to investing in banks. Also, we go long the return of the European otter. Links: What I have learnt in 37 years of financial journalism For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. Y...
Dec 14, 2023•16 min
Inflation has slowed in the US, the UK, and the EU. Will this mean interest rate cuts next year? Markets seem to think so, but comments from central bankers this week may temper that enthusiasm. Also, we go long the antitrust suit against Google, and long the UK’s campaign against greenwashing. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@f...
Dec 12, 2023•17 min
Bitcoin just hit $40,000, Coinbase is up 300 per cent this year, and French bank Société Générale is rolling out a stablecoin. All this frothy news comes after a record penalty levied on Binance by the SEC and the guilty verdict against Sam Bankman-Fried. Today on the show, Ethan Wu asks Katie Martin why, and Katie asks Ethan why. Also we go short Kwasi Kwarteng and long central bank speak. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Et...
Dec 07, 2023•14 min
The Financial Times’ award-winning podcast series Hot Money is back. In this series our reporter Miles Johnson investigates a mysterious murder in a small town that leads to a web of drugs, money laundering and state-sponsored assassinations stretching from Dublin to Dubai. At the centre is a cocaine super cartel that is revolutionising the global drugs market. This eight-part investigative podcast, published weekly, probes the links between criminals and legitimate businesses, and between gover...
Dec 06, 2023•30 min
The price of gold reached a record high last week. That’s surprising, because normally the price of gold goes down when interest rates go higher. Today on the show, we try to figure out what’s driving gold’s rise. Also, we go long Larry Fink and short the jobs report. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com . Read a transcript o...
Dec 05, 2023•18 min
Market watchers cannot help but notice how the stock market and money supply often track one another. But does liquidity in the financial sector matter more to stock prices than the economy? In this show, we discuss the liquidity theory of markets and whether it holds water. Also, we go very long the late Charlie Munger, former number two at Berkshire Hathaway. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie...
Nov 30, 2023•18 min
Markets have rallied almost 11 percent in November, in part on expectations that the Fed is done raising rates. Today on the show, we look at the Fed’s likely pause and how investors are responding. Also we go long Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon as a DJ. And we make a daring neutral call on the future. Links: Can David Solomon DJ? An investigation For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @ka...
Nov 28, 2023•18 min
The London Stock Exchange now makes most of its money selling data, and only a small percentage listing stocks. FT digital markets correspondent Nikou Asgari joins Katie Martin to ask what that tells us about global markets, data and the future of London as a finance hub. Also we go short the cryptocurrency BNB and long UK chancellors who don’t blow up the markets. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie M...
Nov 23, 2023•18 min
As interest rates rise, funding for a lot of marginally profitable companies is drying up. These corporate “zombies” are wandering the markets, looking for the cheap credit they used to feast on. Today on the show, we take a look at companies on the edge of life and the private equity giants that own some of them. Also we short OpenAI and regrettably go long Covid. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and K...
Nov 21, 2023•15 min
It’s earning season, and the first big news might be from Walmart, whose stock dropped 7 per cent after it reported concerns about the health of the consumer. This is a counter narrative to the strong gross domestic product and inflation numbers we’ve been talking about. Today on the show, we dig into Walmart’s view and see what it might tell us about the future of the economy. Also we go out on a limb with two contrarian longs: big box retail and the news judgement of the American people. ...
Nov 16, 2023•16 min
Four months ago, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore placed their bets on two portfolios of three stocks each picked from the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have been dominating markets this year. Today on the show, we check in on their portfolios, and try to think about where they’re headed next. Also, we go long Chicago. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) ...
Nov 14, 2023•20 min
How many bears does it take to change a lightbulb? None, it will never happen. Join us today as we debrief reporter Jenn Hughes, recently back from a conference hosted by the biggest bear of them all, Jim Grant, longtime editor-in-chief of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. The cautious conferees had one thing on their minds: the explosion in government debt. One solution: yield curve control. Also, we go long cats, and short chewing tape. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go...
Nov 09, 2023•14 min
Today on the show, host Katie Martin pits two teams against one another in a historic finance trivia showdown, complete with trash talk, ridiculously hard questions, and strongly-worded protests. In one corner, the cerebral duo behind the FT’s Alphaville newsletter, Alexandra Scaggs and Robin Wigglesworth. In the other, the brains behind the FT’s Unhedged newsletter, our own Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu. An epic clash like this will not be seen again in our lifetimes, or at least not until anot...
Nov 07, 2023•27 min
Reporter Joshua Oliver joins us just hours after the closing arguments of the fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the FTX crypto exchange. We talk about why it’s hard to find a smoking gun in a white-collar criminal trial, why Bankman-Fried testified and what it was like for Oliver to hear his own name in the testimony. Also we go long and short a hedge fund trying to build a news organisation. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedof...
Nov 02, 2023•20 min
GDP numbers are strong. Wages are strong. Household debt is relatively low. So why is the stock market so blue? Since July 31, it is down 10 percent – formally a “correction” – and that includes the strong performance of the seven Big Tech stocks. What gives? Today on the show, we look at three factors putting the brakes on a boom. We also go long our own listeners, a few of whom Katie bumped into at a wedding in Ireland. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://ww...
Oct 31, 2023•19 min
In the third quarter, the US economy, as measured by annualised GDP, grew 4.9%. In an environment of skyrocketing interest rates, that is an extraordinary number. And it’s being powered by an extraordinary force: the American consumer. Today on the show we try to understand why they have remained so resilient, and if there’s room for more growth. Also, we go long Morgan Stanley and short the avians of the Antarctic. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.c...
Oct 26, 2023•14 min
