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The episode delves into escalating worries surrounding private credit, a trillion-dollar industry that boomed post-2008. The hosts and guest discuss its opaque nature, restrictions on investor withdrawals, and recent defaults, questioning whether disruptive factors like AI could trigger a wider financial problem. They also contrast current risks with the 2008 crisis, assessing the potential for systemic contagion.
Following record intraday swings in oil prices, this episode delves into how markets interpreted conflicting statements regarding the Iran conflict, noting investors' atypical profit-taking rather than a classic flight to safety. It examines the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, global efforts to stabilize oil markets, and the severe impact on UK and European debt markets, highlighting lingering geopolitical uncertainties despite attempts at normalization.
The hosts and financial historian Brendan Greeley delve into the "Genius Act," which legalized stablecoins under state regulation in the US. They critique the lack of robust oversight compared to traditional banking, arguing that stablecoins inherently face the same risks of collapse as private banknotes of the past. The discussion also covers the implications of crypto exchanges like Kraken gaining direct access to the Federal Reserve's payment systems, warning of future financial instability resulting from deregulation.
This episode analyzes the escalating Middle East conflict's impact on global markets, focusing on the surge in oil and natural gas prices due to infrastructure attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts discuss the potential for rekindled inflation, the divergent economic pain for different regions, and the lack of clear war aims, concluding with personal "long/short" picks.
The podcast explores the fallout from the Supreme Court overturning President Trump's emergency trade tariffs, forcing him to scramble for alternative legal avenues to impose new import restrictions. Guests discuss the intricate process of tariff reimbursements, the financial implications for the US economy and deficit, and the surprising prospect of foreign companies receiving refunds. The hosts and guest also delve into the political unpopularity of tariffs and the broader economic damage inflicted by these trade policies.
This episode delves into Wall Street's recent jitters, primarily triggered by a Citrini Research report predicting mass unemployment and a disastrous fall in consumption due to AI efficiency. Hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the market's current susceptibility to such speculative reports, contrasting US tech stock performance with global markets. They further analyze the economic plausibility of AI-driven deflation and its potential impact on private equity and credit, while also touching on specific company vulnerabilities.
This episode explores the reasons behind the US dollar's current decline, attributing it to a mix of eroding interest rate advantages, global investors diversifying away from US assets, and growing concerns over US institutions and political influence on the Federal Reserve. The discussion highlights how political factors are increasingly overriding traditional economic correlations, creating uncertainty around the dollar's future trajectory and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
This episode delves into Wells Fargo's ambitious pivot from a consumer-focused Main Street bank to a major player in investment banking. It explores the bank's long history, the devastating impact of its "fake accounts" scandal and subsequent asset cap, and how the recent lifting of this restriction, coupled with new leadership, has paved the way for its bold new strategy. The discussion highlights the challenges of breaking into the competitive investment banking space, Wells Fargo's unique advantages, and its initial successes, including its significant role in the Netflix/Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
The episode delves into the details of the latest US jobs report, discussing the surprising strength in healthcare and the emerging signs of AI data center construction driving new jobs in specialty trades. It also examines the mixed signals from consumer spending, noting a divergence between solid job growth and declining retail sales, and highlights the financial strain on specific low-income, indebted demographics. Finally, the hosts debate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, questioning the market's expectation of rate cuts given persistent inflation and a stable but not dynamic job market.
Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi's recent snap election win has sparked a significant rally in Japanese stocks, building on years of corporate governance reforms. The episode delves into how the country's changing bond yield environment is attracting both domestic and international investors, potentially leading to capital repatriation and a stronger yen. The hosts also discuss the implications of these shifts for global markets, especially concerning US and European assets, and debate the future stability of Japan's financial landscape amidst global unpredictability.
The hosts delve into the 'triangle of confusion,' where consumer sentiment, hard economic data, and market movements present conflicting signals about the economy's health. They discuss the deepening pessimism despite stable job numbers, driven by negative news cycles and fears of AI job displacement. The episode also explores the challenging housing market, nuanced tech sector performance, and the influence of retail investors on assets like Bitcoin and gold.
This episode dissects President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, contrasting his past criticisms with the expectations for his role. The hosts explore Warsh's seemingly contradictory monetary policy stances, his focus on productivity and AI, and the risks associated with his views on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet amid fiscal deficits. The discussion also touches on the delicate balance of central bank independence and the potential for a "regime change" in the Fed's operational approach, before a light-hearted segment on theme parks and the 'grindcore' work ethic.
Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the persistent decline of the US dollar since Donald Trump's second inauguration, analyzing its significant impact on global investment returns and other major currencies. They delve into the "trust issue" surrounding US policy, budget deficits, and the contentious process of nominating the next Federal Reserve chair. The hosts also examine the highly unusual US intervention in the Japanese yen market, offering theories on its motivations and potential broader implications for Asian currencies.
Gold and silver prices are experiencing an unprecedented, 'bananas' surge, prompting skepticism and debate among market analysts. This episode delves into the factors behind the rally, dismissing the 'debasement' theory and highlighting a shift in safe haven preferences, rampant speculation, and significant market leverage. It also explores robust industrial demand for silver and warns that its 'meme stock' behavior could lead to high volatility, while considering potential triggers for the frenzy's end.
Following President Trump's reversal on invading Greenland, this episode explores the "Taco trade" and its implications for corporate and investor strategies. The hosts discuss whether standing firm or appeasing Trump yields better results, using examples from major corporations. They also delve into the "Taco cycle" for markets, Trump's diminishing political power, and the challenge of diversifying global portfolios away from the influential US economy.
Rob Armstrong and Toby Nangle discuss the escalating geopolitical tensions stemming from Donald Trump's threats regarding Greenland and Europe's military response, which has sent global markets into a panic. They analyze Europe's potential financial "nuclear responses" and the challenges of economic decoupling, questioning the feasibility and impact of such actions. The conversation also covers the dollar's robust position, the difficulty of finding alternatives to US assets, and concludes with their personal "long and short" investment picks.
We’re sharing a preview of another podcast we think you’ll enjoy, Business History . Former Planet Money hosts Jacob Goldstein and Robert Smith examine the surprising stories of businesses big and small, bringing to life the greatest innovations, the boldest entrepreneurs and the craziest mavericks in the archives of commerce and finance. Today’s episode: How Warren Buffett rose from obscurity to become one of the richest people in the world. To hear more, find Business History on YouTube, Apple...
The results of the FT’s 2025 stock picking contest are in! Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and the FT’s asset management reporter Alan Livsey take a look at the winning and losing ideas of 2025. Also they go short prediction markets and short the dollar. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See aca...
On Sunday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell took the extraordinary step of issuing a video saying he is being threatened with a criminal indictment because the Fed failed to follow "the preferences of the President." Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if the Fed can survive a Soviet-style smear campaign and legal attack. Also they go long print and long Are You Dead?, an app for checking if you’re dead or not. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: ...
Markets continue their sunny cruise, whistling along as the world is upended by nationalistic meddling in both corporations and other countries. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the stunning resilience of the global economy. Also, they go short bank consolidation and short Grok nudifying people. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com . Read a transcrip...
This episode delves into the financial market's surprisingly calm reaction to Donald Trump's intervention in Venezuela. Experts discuss whether the move is primarily about Venezuela's heavy oil, its low profitability, and the strategic value for US refineries, despite significant infrastructure investment challenges. The conversation also explores the broader geopolitical risks of Trump's assertive foreign policy and its potential impact on global markets and alliances.
Initially viewed with suspicion as 'vulture funds,' international private equity firms have dramatically increased their influence in Japan. This episode details their early struggles post-asset bubble, how the Japanese corporate landscape and demographics now create ideal conditions for PE, and the government's active role in promoting their presence. It also examines private equity's adapted, less aggressive operating style in Japan and the potential risks and future outlook for this rapidly expanding sector.
Katie Martin spent a restful 20 hours on a plane coming up with some devilishly hard questions for her colleagues, Rob Armstrong and John Foley. Today on the show, we find out who is the best at making wild guesses. Also, all three unveil their new year’s resolutions. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acas...
Here’s another podcast we think you’ll enjoy, The Big Short Companion from Against the Rules, hosted by bestselling author Michael Lewis. Lewis’ popular book The Big Short is 15 years old, and to mark the occasion, Lewis is looking back on how the 2008 financial crisis still affects the world today. Investor Michael Burry was one of the first to see the subprime housing market crisis coming, and now, he’s back in the headlines, this time for betting against a very different kind of boom: he’s ta...
Why do companies care about their share price so much? Is Switzerland in danger of losing its banks? What would regime change in Venezuela do to global oil markets? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong answer listener questions. Or try to. Also, they go short gift cards and long crypto islands. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com . Read a transcript of this epi...
Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take a look at some revealing numbers about jobs, inflation and borrowing against the Treasuries market. Also they go short “funny” videos from private equity and short Wham! For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com . Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
The hosts discuss silver's significant price jump this year, far exceeding gold and Bitcoin, and question the underlying reasons—from industrial demand and supply issues to retail speculative frenzy. They also analyze broader market exuberance indicators, noting a high sentiment that traditionally acts as a contrary signal for investors. The conversation touches on Bitcoin's recent dip despite overall market optimism and the differing roles of these assets for institutional versus retail investors.
The Unhedged team reflects on the surprising resilience of markets in 2025, attributing success to Trump's adjusted trade policies, robust corporate earnings, and the pervasive AI theme, despite initial fears of recession and inflation. They then pivot to 2026 forecasts, discussing Wall Street's bullish outlook fueled by fiscal expansion, but also delve into significant risks. Key concerns include a potential AI bubble, the unpredictable nature of inflation coinciding with a Fed leadership change, and vulnerabilities in global bond markets, particularly Japan, alongside the risk of crypto market instability impacting traditional assets. The episode concludes with a warning about the collective optimism, often a precursor to market corrections.
Netflix and Paramount are in a bidding war to take over Warner Bros Discovery and its historic collections of movies and television series. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to US deals correspondent Oliver Barnes and US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan about a battle that will have a lasting impact on entertainment and the news. Also they go long indie cinema and short Christmas. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email ...
Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with special guest Adam Posen about the prospects for inflation and even a financial crisis. Posen has worked for both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England, and is the current president of the non-profit Peterson Institute for International Economics. They talk about the options facing the next Fed chair, the conditions for serious inflation, and AI’s role in our economic future. Also they go short crypto and long the...
