In the third quarter, the US economy, as measured by annualised GDP, grew 4.9%. In an environment of skyrocketing interest rates, that is an extraordinary number. And it’s being powered by an extraordinary force: the American consumer. Today on the show we try to understand why they have remained so resilient, and if there’s room for more growth. Also, we go long Morgan Stanley and short the avians of the Antarctic. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.c...
Oct 26, 2023•14 min
The CSI 300, which tracks the largest publicly traded companies in China, just fell to pre-pandemic lows, despite aggressive attempts by President Xi Jinping to prop up the market. The drags on equities include slowing growth, a crisis in the property market and notable geopolitical tensions. Today on the show, we try to figure out if this is the beginning of a long-term crisis or a historic buying opportunity. Also, we go long trades by Bill Gross and Bill Ackman and short getting hit by vans.&...
Oct 24, 2023•18 min
Today on the show, FT correspondent Josh Oliver joins us in the New York studio just minutes after leaving the courtroom. Oliver has been covering the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, since it started on October 2. We talk about the procession of former friends testifying against him, the trading firm Alameda, the seven balance sheets and the possibility of SBF taking the stand. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: h...
Oct 19, 2023•22 min
The Japanese stock market is on a tear, up 20% this year. Some of that may be due to a weakening yen, and maybe a flight to safety, but it is likely largely the result of a serious effort to rethink how Japan does business. The latest push: a “name and shame” campaign to call out companies that aren’t optimising returns for shareholders. Also, we go short fudging expense reports and long techno bros who are long-winded. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www....
Oct 17, 2023•17 min
For years, low interest rates let private equity deliver huge returns to investors. But now rates are up, and private equity is struggling. Many PE firms are turning to financial engineering to boost results. Today on the show, we wonder how that’s going to turn out. Also we go long the dollar as reserve currency and short the Birkenstock IPO. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_m...
Oct 12, 2023•16 min
Conflict in the Middle East is dominating the news this week. Today on the show, we’re looking at three markets that traditionally respond to disruption: oil, the yen and gold. Also, we go long training for marathons and short the next 10 years for private equity. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at [email protected] . Read ...
Oct 10, 2023•17 min
We don’t really do politics, but with election season underway, candidates are arguing about the American economy. Incumbents say it’s terrific. Challengers say it’s awful. Which is it? Today on the show, we look at the economy from several viewpoints and try to figure out which is more accurate. Also we go long Q3 earnings and short coverage of Sam Bankman-Fried. Links: Today’s Unhedged newsletter For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedo...
Oct 05, 2023•19 min
The 10- and 30- year Treasury yields just hit their highest levels since 2007, sending prices down. And at the same time, equities moved in the same direction. That’s not supposed to happen. Today on the show, we try to figure out what is happening and why. Also we short our previous long on Three Arrows Capital and go long the Japanese yen. Links: Please join the FT and Nikkei for a webinar on the revival of the Japanese stock market on Wednesday October 11 at 14:00 London time: japaneses...
Oct 03, 2023•18 min
The markets tried denying that the Federal Reserve really would keep rates “higher for longer”. But in the past week, equities and debt finally seemed to accept that high interest rates are here to stay. That means changes in the prices of assets, but it also has a lot of implications for everyone from tech start-ups to small countries with big loans. Today on the show, we try to think about the new world of high interest rates. Also, we go short small cap stocks and long London’s grocery stores...
Sep 28, 2023•17 min
The US dollar has been on a tear, just reaching a six-month high. It might be a sign investors and traders are getting used to the idea that US interest rates will be “higher for longer.” Today on the show, we look at the greenback’s continuing strength and try to understand how it will affect global markets. Also, we go long London and long Jamie Dimon’s interest rate calls. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethan...
Sep 26, 2023•13 min
Dumb Money , out this week, stars Seth Rogen, America Ferrera and several very tricky finance moves. We liked Seth and America, but we definitely have questions about the portrayal of clearing houses, order flow, and stock dilution. If you’ve watched Star Wars and wondered how the Millenium Falcon could carry enough fuel to travel at the speed of light, this episode is for you. Also we go long Jay Powell and long auto workers. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https...
Sep 21, 2023•21 min
Hedge funds are piling into the basis trade — a bet on the difference between the price of Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures — and they are levering up, too. Today on the show, we ask: Are we watching genius at work? And if not, how much is this all going to cost? Also, we go long all the other central banks and short comedians from Sacramento. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Marti...
Sep 19, 2023•15 min
Robyn Grew is the new CEO of the Man Group, which manages more than $150 billion over multiple hedge funds. On September 3, she joined Katie Martin, the FT’s Markets Editor, at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House in north London. Perched on high stools behind a kitchen counter meant for a cooking demonstration, Grew and Martin discussed how the end of the low-inflation era has forced a rethink for everyone from retail investors to managers of sophisticated hedge funds. For a free 90-d...
Sep 18, 2023•38 min
As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Mart...
Sep 14, 2023•17 min
Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_...
Sep 12, 2023•15 min
Grayscale Investments manages funds of digital assets – cryptocurrency – for investors. They just won a case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which could eventually let it, or another manager, offer an ETF that holds bitcoin. US Financial Editor Brooke Masters and podcast regular Rob Armstrong talk with Ethan about what a world of crypto for regular investors might look like. Also we go long the US Treasury, and short the administrative state. For a free 90-day trial to t...
Sep 07, 2023•16 min
Summer’s nearly over, autumn is approaching, and the jobs numbers came in just right. So what are we worried about? Besides the slowdown in China, there are also concerns about the sagging bond market and a drought affecting the Panama Canal. Also, we go long the education and medical sectors and short … fried cheese. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @katie_martin_fx ) on Twitter. You can e...
Sep 05, 2023•16 min
The central bankers of the world are just back from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where they gathered to discuss the global economy. Two new papers dropped at the event, and together they say a lot about what worries policymakers: public debt and the Treasury markets. Also, we go long the SEC’s private fund regulations and short the neutral interest rate. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Martin ( @ka...
Aug 29, 2023•18 min
The press has been savaging Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. And only the Unhedged Podcast is brave enough to defend him. A little bit. Well, we’re not saying he’s the greatest ever, but there are a lot of interesting reasons it is getting harder to be a secretive financial group and consistently make billions. Also, we go even longer on Japan and short our ability to make predictions about Nvidia. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer F...
Aug 24, 2023•18 min
Zero-day options are now almost 50 percent of the options market. But what are they? And why would anyone take these bets? Today on the show, host Ethan Wu and Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the latest way to gamble on the markets and address concerns that it all might blow up. Also we go short the Republican debate and long the Bloomberg terminal. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu ) and Katie Mar...
Aug 22, 2023•13 min
In an alternate corner of the multiverse, Disney is a family-friendly company that reliably puts out iconic films and turns them into billions of dollars through licensing and theme park visits. In our universe, they are fighting a tough battle for streaming viewers, reeling from a messy public CEO swap, struggling to find a hit and trying to make things better by starting a gambling operation. Today on the show, Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to watch the fireworks. Also we go long British f...
Aug 17, 2023•13 min
China’s economy has been growing faster than almost any other for a generation, so a slowdown is unfamiliar territory. Today on the show we look at three indicators — the CPI, exports and property sales — and try to understand why growth in China is finally slowing, and what it means for the rest of the world. Also, we go short cable news and long Argentina as a perpetual lesson in economics. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow ...
Aug 15, 2023•19 min
Carl Icahn is one of the most successful investors of all time, but his bet against the US economy has cost him billions of dollars. Now Hindenburg Research, the short seller, has come after Icahn and his publicly-traded fund, Icahn Enterprises. Hindenburg claims Icahn’s generous dividends are unsustainable. Today on the show, we ask: Can Icahn rally? Also, we go short investment bankers, and long stowaways. Links: - Icahn Enterprises halves dividend after short seller attack For a free 90...
Aug 10, 2023•20 min
Bonds started as a tool of the state, but quickly came to determine its fortunes. Today on the show, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth joins us to talk about how bonds have overtaken banking as the engine of the economy, and why that might be good and why that might be dangerous. Also, we go short the soft landing and long Nintendo. Links: How bonds ate the entire financial system For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan ...
Aug 08, 2023•17 min
After a decade, billions of dollars and almost five years on the public markets, Uber has at last turned a profit. In the previous quarter, it made $326 million dollars. Today on the show, we ask: What took it so long? And why is it so hard to make money matching riders with drivers? Also, we go long the 10-year US Treasury, and short cultural criticism. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (...
Aug 03, 2023•15 min
Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ( @ethanywu...
Aug 01, 2023•17 min
Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.f...
Jul 27, 2023•19 min
Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer Follow Ethan Wu ...
Jul 25, 2023•16 min
As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum. Links: No, private credit markets aren’t really that big For a free 90-day trial ...
Jul 20, 2023•17 min
Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini. For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer ...
Jul 18, 2023•14 min
