Ep. 78 - Global Downturn Led by the Fed and Europe
Financial markets are high risk particularly with plunging real estate prices. What are the ingredients for an eventual return to up-trending markets?
Oct 28, 2022•14 min
UCLA Extension Business Insights
The Business, Management, and Legal Programs Department at UCLA Extension offers more than 350 courses, conference, and seminars annually and is home to more than 50 professional certificates designed for working professionals and recent college grads who are seeking professional development in the dynamic world of business. Our courses are offered online or in the classroom, making it a flexible option for everyone.
Last refreshed: ⓘ
Follow this podcast in the Metacast mobile app to refresh it and see new episodes.
Podcasts are better in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more
Episodes
Ep. 76 - Brace for More Severe Stock, Bond, and Real Estate Downmoves!
U.S. is stronger than Europe and Asia but in a severe depression all will suffer. A cold winter will exhaust many European energy supplies further negatively impacting production including food processing. Energy prices to continue their uptrends after European inventories utilized and U.S. sales from the Strategic Oil Reserve are terminated (after mid-term elections). Inflation to remain high despite Fed interest rate hikes.
Sep 28, 2022•17 min
Ep. 75 - U.S. in the Eye of a Global Economic Hurricane
Europe’s energy issues threaten both businesses and households; the U.S. will be impacted by Europe’s growing economic and social instabilities. We are facing a Minsky Moment brought on by more than a decade of burgeoning debt and risk-taking (consider the Minsky Moment framework explained in this Podcast).
Sep 14, 2022•21 min
Ep. 74 - The U.K. As Well As All of Europe Dropping Into a Deep Recession with the U.S. to follow?
Natural gas supply shortages have already doubled to quadrupled related prices from home heating, electricity production, to fertilizer production throughout Europe. With Fall and Winter rapidly approaching their inflation rates are likely to reach new highs (in the 15-20% range but remaining out of control). The sanctions against Russia have not succeeded as expected given the pain throughout Europe and Russia’s ability to redirect much of their exports to the BRIC countries (importantly China ...
Aug 31, 2022•21 min
Ep. 73 - Stock and Bond Market Warnings!
Major stock and bond market declines have occurred when low unemployment rates have been reported in conjunction with market rallies from 15-20+% declines. We’re in stagflation with prospects of a significant recession ahead so be careful about making new commitments in the stock and bond markets. The “why this warning” is covered in today’s Podcast. We include a link to the S&P 500 long-term chart that is referenced in this podcast: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-d...
Aug 17, 2022•18 min
Ep. 72 - Deepening Recession, Long Term Inflation, and China/Russia Challenges
Recent data confirms the U.S. is in a deepening recession coupled with long-term inflation. China and Russia can be expected to act more and more as a bloc. Leaders of the prior U.S. stock market uptrend are, now, themselves having growth problems which doesn’t bode well for the balance of 2022’s financial markets.
Aug 05, 2022•19 min
Ep. 71: Inflation's Impact on Stock, Bond, and Real Estate for the Balance of 2022!
The Fed is unable to contain inflation during 2022 but, instead, pins its hopes on oil price declines. Actually, the risks are high that oil prices will continue upward and cause new substantial impacts on the financial markets before the Holidays. Inflation is now a global issue with Central Banks not collaborating to fight it. China and Japan continue to inflate their economies causing more foreign money to flow into U.S. assets grabbing our higher interest rates. Prepare for a continuation of...
Jul 20, 2022•27 min
Ep. 70 - Importance of Real Estate in Creating Higher Money Supply and Inflation
The real estate cycle is both an important precursor of inflation and a victim of Federal Reserve inflation-fighting. Our banking system is likely more important than the Federal Reserve in money creation through new mortgage funding. As housing transactions reflect less days on market and fewer offers per transaction the speed of price declines may well soften the Fed's quantitative tightening plans. Inflation is here to stay more many years albeit with weaker bond and stock prices this year an...
Jul 07, 2022•24 min
Ep. 69 - Moving Strongly into Recession with More Pressure on Bond and Stock Prices
No soft landing in sight with significant economic pain dead ahead. Prepare for a stock and bond market rally that will be a fake-out with lower bond, stock, and real estate prices continuing into year-end. Viewing this one-hour YouTube video of a top global hedge fund manager is a MUST to learn more of where we are and what's ahead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ.
Jun 23, 2022•18 min
Ep. 68 - Moving into a Serious Recession?
The Fed has no choice but to create a recession to lower demand to meet global supply issues; they must fight inflation and they will move in a quite different direction from that in Chairman Powell's first term. Russia's oil and natural gas supply issues go beyond Western sanctions as discussed here. Get prepared for more global issues including country defaults, more global money creation, and new stresses on our employment and financial systems.
Jun 09, 2022•20 min
Ep. 67 - Moving from Stagflation to a Serious Recession!
We’d like to welcome Credit Today's 15,000+ subscribers to our channel. In today’s podcast, we’ll be discussing the movement toward a serious recession from "just" Stagflation with historical examples as well as the most recent economic data. Credit Today's website: www.credittoday.net
May 26, 2022•18 min
Ep. 66 - Stagflation is Here - What Should I Do?
We're well into the next recession we discussed as upcoming last year. Inflation is out of control with goods, services, and recent wage news. Buckle up! Prepare for steadily declining stock, bond, and jobs markets. We've passed the fail-safe area with the Fed powerless to undo their massive money printing and debt buying that went ballistic during COVID. What should I do? Listen for well-proven ideas in a Stagflation economy.
May 11, 2022•20 min
Ep. 65 - Now That Interest Rates Are Up and Stocks Are Down…What’s Next?
We now have Stagflation or if you prefer, Stayflation with an oncoming recession. Globalization is quickly morphing into two trading blocs (China/Russia and U.S./Europe/Japan). Many countries are temporarily caught in the middle. Russia/China is moving rapidly to Yuan/Rouble oil and natural gas trading while bypassing the U.S. dollar SWIFT global financial network. Many import/export relationships are changing with higher prices a likely outcome for many months ahead…if not years.
Apr 27, 2022•21 min
Ep. 64 - The Peak in the U.S. Housing Market and Record Inflation – Both at Once!
Both housing prices and rents are increasing across the U.S. at 10-15% annually but these trends are likely to reverse in the second half of this year. Long-term inflation rates are likely to continue ramping up given that the 30 mortgage rate already has increased at a record pace this year (up more than 1 ¾% in recent months). Disruption of supply chains is worsening as “globalization” is rapidly giving way to “localization” in manufacturing, energy, raw materials, and transportation. Soon “St...
Apr 13, 2022•16 min
Ep. 63 - It's Time to Protect and Preserve Your Capital!
The easy money provided by the Fed since the 08-09 Great Recession is in the past. The anticipated drop in bond prices has begun and this March 24, 2022 article provides a backdrop to major trend changes: https://www.ft.com/content/40237918-8153-4ade-af3d-f4f1de724de8. Now is the time to do your family’s financial SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats). Many economic relationships are changing with the movement from “globalization” to “localization”. Please view this one-h...
Mar 30, 2022•21 min
Ep. 62 - In the Perfect Economic Storm
As discussed last year, we are now in the period of high economic risk (meaning stock and bond market declines, new job risks, and impending housing price volatility). We expected a significant bond and stock sell-off at year end 2021 and it has come albeit a month or so later. More important, the risks in the global financial markets are growing substantially as U.S. interest rates and inflation grow while supply chain issues worsen. We are in a perfect storm economically for higher volatility ...
Mar 17, 2022•18 min
Ep. 61 - Moving into a Bear Market for Stocks and Bonds
High inflation is embedded and exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. This year may mark the beginning of a new bear market with increasing volatility for many asset groups. Risk management is front and center as significant long-term trend changes are now in process. Our Podcast presents perspectives and suggestions for investment preservation and personal growth.
Mar 02, 2022•20 min
Ep. 60 - Markets Heading Down and Risks Moving Up!
One of our Black Swan events is rapidly emerging: Russia is looking as though they plan to annex at least the Eastern part of the Ukraine. What would Russia gain if they succeed? Regardless of events this week, the new trends in bonds and stocks are down in response to the high expectation we’ve prepared for since early 2021. This year has the potential to reveal substantial bond and stock sell-off’s despite the U.S. stock market’s long term resilience.
Feb 16, 2022•15 min
Ep. 59 - Inflation Now Concerning the Largest Investors
Keep in mind that a few hundred global investment groups account for the $Trillions that move through our financial markets each day. When they re-allocate their investment assets they change market trends. We are getting concerned about potential large sales programs for both stocks and bonds. One of the largest groups, Blackstone (in collaboration with Backrock) waited for house prices to crater in 2008-2010 while building companies to buy $Billions and thousands of foreclosed homes. Please re...
Feb 03, 2022•18 min
Ep. 58 - Serious and Out of Control Inflation for 2022?
Many manufactured goods, agricultural inputs, and services have already increased in price more than 20% in 2021! The Producer Price and Services increases are now creating and realizing significantly higher wage increases. The Federal Reserve will have a limited impact on controlling this different kind of inflation which is not demand driven but supply restricted. Please access this recent interview with Mohamed El-Erian. Former head of PIMCO, now President of Cambridge’s Queens College, and C...
Jan 20, 2022•19 min
Ep. 57 - 2022: The Year the New Money Creation Tsunami Hits the Shore!
Inflation will be the headline through the New Year with major ripples dragging down the bond and stock markets. New threats are emerging in Europe: a payback from the U.S. caused the 2008-2009 Great Recession? The European Central Bank (ECB) may be a big black swan that can drag down the financial markets in the fashion of the ‘08-‘09 financial meltdown and global recession. Please access these links: For the Debt Clock: https://www.usdebtclock.org/ For news on rent increases: https://seekingal...
Jan 05, 2022•19 min
Ep. 56-Year End Summary: The Fed, Asset Bubbles, & High Inflation with a 2022 Recession Expectation
We are now, officially, in a high inflation economy with many suffering from double-digit rent increases, massive childcare cost increases, long-term supply chain issues, and the prospects of higher interest rates and lower stock prices. Childcare is a core issue that impacts family health, education, and income; please do access these NPR links for thoughts on its impact and continuance: https://www.npr.org/2021/10/19/1047019536/families-are-struggling-to-find-the-child-care-they-desperately-ne...
Dec 08, 2021•22 min
Ep. 55 - The Next Black Swan Event
There are so many Black Swan possibilities that it’s better to prepare for one than to forecast which one will impact our markets. Whichever one emerges consider they’re already been deployed and “more of the same” may not be enough. Please give a listen to this most recent interview from a few days ago (Danielle DiMartino Booth): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7cDv0hR5G4.
Nov 24, 2021•16 min
Ep. 54 - The Latest Federal Reserve and Economic Risk Expectations
The last two weeks solidified our inflation, jobs, and the Federal Reserve’s policy trap (their policies are not succeeding in restoring the U.S. economy to growth and they’re actually ‘doubling down’ on failing actions). Please view this brief video from key global investor advisers at the national New Orleans Economic Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-gmPwBsMuk.
Nov 11, 2021•15 min
Ep. 53 - Inflation and Stagflation (Stagnation) is a Long-Term Issue
This week we delve into how we correctly anticipated Stagflation more than a year ago and why it’s a long-term issue. Former Fed Executive, author of “Fed Up”, and Founder of Quill Intelligence provides a quite recent update on inflation, stock, bond, and cyber currency expectations while introducing her concerns about growing Federal Reserve risks. Please start at the beginning and watch the first 20 minutes of this video interview of Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP...
Oct 28, 2021•16 min
Ep. 52 - A Financial Market Turning Point?
We share the latest Anderson Forecast for CA and LA as well as a key interview with Mr. Ray Dalio, founder, and head of Bridgewater Associates (one of the largest and most successful global hedge funds). Anderson Forecast link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3v-XzWhWrk&t=4983s (particularly the first 60 minutes).
Oct 13, 2021•22 min
Ep. 51 - Stock, Bond, and Real Estate Markets at a Peak?
Our podcasts include the thinking and decisions by the relatively small number of fund managers that strongly influence bond, stock, real estate, and currency markets. For comprehensive hedge fund leaders and investment information, visit https://www.tipranks.com/hedge-funds/top, which is a free resource. Another great source is this video, which is a bit long, but really valuable for understanding how Jeffrey Gundlach and Danielle DiMartino Booth evaluate today’s markets and risks: https://www....
Oct 04, 2021•19 min
Ep. 50 - Large Global Investor Views on Inflation and the Financial Markets for Year-End 2021
Happy 50th Podcast to Us! We thank our loyal listeners for your continued support. Please view these recent links to top investment fund manager interviews as they focus on today’s risks and tomorrow’s trend changes. Michael Gentile and Stansberry Research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWoDlwnskGs Jim Richards and Keith McCullough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORJ_tau_CYU
Sep 15, 2021•21 min
Ep. 49 - The Dollar, Bond, and Stock Markets Viewed by a Top Fund Manager
This week, we discuss how a substantial decline in the U.S. dollar and dollar markets is expected over the next year or two and we begin to bring in top money fund strategists starting with Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and strategist of DoubleLine ($200 Billion investor).
Sep 01, 2021•12 min
Ep. 48 - Year-end 2021: Stock and Bond Market Volatility Dead Ahead!
It’s becoming clear that consumer inflation can no longer be disguised as a blip or “transitory”. Wide recognition of this as an indisputable issue will create large sell-offs in the bond and stock markets…. with a long recovery period anticipated.
Aug 18, 2021•15 min
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android