The stock and bond markets are now at the long-awaited peak…the actual high point should be this Fall or, at the latest, Winter. Individual investors including the new investor generation of Millennials are “all-in” along with the Federal Reserve and Federal Government on money and debt creation. We can expect more Federal Reserve moves to stabilize the banking system and continue to drive up the “wealth effect” of consumers but their long-time strategies continue to fall short and will likely g...
Aug 04, 2021•15 min
So far we’ve seen the top 1% or so of our country benefit from the Fed’s money creation in league with Congress's multi-Trillion dollar deficit spending! No one can argue the high inflation in the stock, bond, and residential real estate markets. Now, we’re on track to see historically high inflation in consumer prices with continuing stresses in the job market.
Jul 21, 2021•23 min
Time to diversify out of many stock and bond investments; re-evaluate your own investment risks! Specialized and alternative investment categories and actions will be the next mega-trend with Trillions moving out of stock and bond indexed funds into real estate, commodities, and other specialized investment classes. Once again, crypto is not an investment class and it’s best to avoid.
Jul 09, 2021•19 min
Do you have an idea how to value Bitcoin as an investment? As a currency? This podcast will give you time-tested perspectives of valuing a new asset class. Don’t buy cryptocurrency before trying to evaluate the risks inherent in the early stages of adoption, technology evolution, and Central Bank influences as we discuss.
Jun 23, 2021•20 min
Today’s focus is good news on our economic recovery plus a look in-depth at the national real estate marketplace (particularly REIT’s). Link to the UCLA Anderson Forecast video: https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=VkPYhht2aws Link to the Hoya Capital REIT article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432330-apartment-reits-happy-landlords-unhappy-renters
Jun 09, 2021•21 min
Stock groups that perform differently during an inflationary period (which we’re experiencing) vs. our “Goldilock’s Years” should be considered. Perspectives on “where we are” in our recovery and Crypto’s future included.
May 26, 2021•20 min
JPMorgan’s top analyst is sounding the inflation alarm; we are at an inflection point where major asset reallocations will shortly impact the bond and stock markets in most negative ways. His investment advice is to move away from bonds and technology leaders (sell) and move toward commodity funds and stocks (buy). Does this make sense? You decide after today’s podcast! Links used in this podcast: https://www.reddit.com/r/shrinkflation/
May 13, 2021•21 min
After a year of COVID distancing and endless money creation, financial markets are self-sustaining. Key components of market psychology and cumulative bias has replaced economic and financial metrics. It’s happened before with terrible financial outcomes for many. If you feel you are missing the vast crypto or stock market profits this podcast is for you! Link to psychological bias’ covered in the podcast: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/list-top-10-ty...
Apr 29, 2021•19 min
Many millions are left out of the recovery and many businesses cannot find needed employees for current jobs. What’s going on? Links referred to in this podcast: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf
Apr 15, 2021•24 min
Results of recent key studies are shared with these studies available via these links: Kastle: https://www.kastle.com/city-by-city-views-of-americas-office-use/ PWC survey: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html KPMG survey: https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2020/covid-american-worker.html American Community Survey: https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/commuting.html 2021 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook: https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/2021-US-Real-Est...
Mar 31, 2021•27 min
The UCLA Anderson School completed a mid-March evaluation of key drivers of California’s recovery. Their findings are summarized today and we also make available their PowerPoint presentation of key trends and conclusions: https://t.e2ma.net/click/3idekg/zr9pohr/bhhu8eb The second part of today focused on the importance of bringing digital transformation knowledge and leadership into your own business and career plans. We include a quick summary of the highest potential job segments given COVID-...
Mar 17, 2021•29 min
Long-term interest rates are moving up with serious implications for the bond, stock, and real estate markets. Many Americans did not participate in the strong up cycle in housing and stock prices but needed to borrow at historically low rates to maintain their lifestyles, especially during the Covid year. What’s the likely impact of interest rates moving up and what should I think about to protect myself and family?
Mar 04, 2021•23 min
Adopt these 4 behaviors to become financially secure (“rich”) and keep them front of mind every day!
Feb 18, 2021•18 min
Large amounts of money creation by the Fed have not provided real growth since the Great Recession and, therefore, have not created new full-time jobs. Reported increases in U.S. GNP/GDP are, importantly, a result of higher prices. Meanwhile, income distribution has mightily suffered and continues to disappoint many.
Feb 03, 2021•23 min
The recovery in jobs is slow and erratic as well as extreme (the good and the not so good). Overall economic patterns add risks to our economy, inflation, volatility, and the U.S. dollar but, all in, the UCLA Anderson Forecast expects impressive real growth after some dismal near-term months.
Jan 20, 2021•17 min
The COVID-19 recovery is slow and filled with significant economic and jobs risks. Many issues and risks are surfacing with some threatening future jobs creation and traditionally safe investments. The low interest rate environment, as long it lasts, will continue to support stock and residential real estate prices but will threaten bond and commercial real estate investments. Categories of asset investments will have to be in sharp focus this year unlike 2020.
Jan 06, 2021•29 min
The most recent Anderson Forecast for California begins this Podcast. We turn to more specific conclusions about the pace of the economic recovery as well as major lingering unemployment/jobs issues. We end our Podcast with specific suggestions you may wish to consider for planning your 2021 investment portfolios given the many post-election financial risks.
Dec 16, 2020•26 min
The inflation of real estate, stocks, and bonds is a “win-win” for city and state governments and a “must-have” for the federal government. Expectations are for a continued inflation of real estate and stocks given that the largest global asset group (U.S. bonds) will be hard-pressed to keep investor interest with the Fed’s low interest rate policy which it plans to maintain. Significant asset sell-offs occur along any long term uptrend but global central banks will continue to flood the world w...
Dec 03, 2020•28 min
Regardless of which party is in control politically the economic and jobs issues are compounding. We are now risking a double dip in our severe recession/depression based on lasting damage from high debt levels, continuing shut-downs/closures, and low/no job creation.
Nov 17, 2020•25 min
The economic recovery has revealed itself more by the late October data releases. The jobs market has become a bit more transparent and key new trends are discussed in some detail along with today’s severe family financial stresses. Our next Podcast adds to what we discuss today and will explore the election consequences on both families and businesses.
Nov 05, 2020•24 min
Hyperinflation occurs when the entity controlling money supply (interest rates, liquidity, asset price bubbles) can no longer implement policy direction changes. In Europe, the record level $17 Billion of negative interest rate bonds illustrates that the ECB is out of policy alternatives attempting to generate new investments and employment growth. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is stuck trying to keep the financial system liquid and functional while buying the lion’s share of new government d...
Oct 22, 2020•31 min
The globally recognized UCLA Anderson Forecasts just completed their analysis of the U.S., California, and Los Angeles economies/jobs. In this episode, we’ll share some of their key expectations for the recovery as well as long-term job issues for key industries.
Oct 07, 2020•30 min
As surfers and mariners know waves come in sets or patterns. Some sets have as few as 3 and some have as many as 10. Economic downturns and recoveries seem similar. We may experience the second wave and maybe a third before the election and a few more could follow by year-end. Today’s discussion tries to set expectations for a treacherous several months and, for some, might suggest getting out of the water for awhile to let the waves pass.
Sep 23, 2020•17 min
We are facing some of the greatest lifestyle and financial risks, quite possibly, of our lifetimes. We didn’t create the all-encompassing “U.S. system risks” but we should recognize them and do our best to lessen them. We’ll set the stage in today’s Podcast and discuss further as we get more economic data in September.
Sep 10, 2020•21 min
From now until year-end the bond and stock markets can be most dangerous for pretty much all investors. Given the Federal Reserve has leveled off their money creation and credit facility funding in the past month or so, those who would have benefited have done so and those who haven’t benefited may not benefit (their issues go beyond creation and liquidity). Additionally, with Congress pretty much in their own “political lockdown” new support programs are severely constrained. We’ll see a steady...
Aug 27, 2020•26 min
We are nearing the 6-month mark with a slow recovery, diverging market trends, and growing government risks at all levels. It’s time to prepare for higher interest rates as well as stock market divergences given the global need for more money and debt creation with no end in sight.
Aug 12, 2020•17 min
We take an updated look at the U.S. and China economic risks which are quite different. We’ll defer Europe to a future Podcast but will just note now that weakness in Europe is more and more pronounced. As mentioned last Podcast our own economic environment is recovering at a disturbingly slow pace. Global economic recovery and re-employment (much less new jobs creation in large numbers) will be years in the making with China facing a larger real estate bubble than the U.S. experienced in the 20...
Jul 30, 2020•21 min
The historic unemployment level is now impacted by “pullbacks” in bank lending and record-high household savings rates. Substantial but temporary federal government lending and household support programs are buying time in the face of really adverse business and household solvency issues (which are mounting). Meanwhile, the stock market continues to be propped up by the large technical and Internet-related names (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Microsoft along with companies having dig...
Jul 15, 2020•21 min
Several days ago, the UCLA Anderson Forecast undertook a comprehensive evaluation of what we know and think we know about the recession/depression recovery phase. This Podcast includes specific industries and jobs focusing on Southern California in addition to the national economy. Additionally, we are going to run our no-cost course, “The 2020 Panic – What’s Next: Navigating Panics, Recessions, and Recoveries!”, again starting July 10. If you weren’t able to take it last time, now is a good tim...
Jul 02, 2020•30 min
The world’s central banks, especially the Fed, are providing endless amounts of liquidity but that won’t stave off large numbers of personal and business insolvencies. The stock market is attempting a “V” shaped recovery but much more volatility is ahead as the economy is unable to recover as quickly as the stock market expects.
Jun 18, 2020•23 min
