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Hello and welcome to another special episode of voter Nomics, the Bloomberg Podcast where politics and markets collide. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Economics and Government at Bloomberg, and this morning we have another historic election. A few days ago it was in the UK. This time it's in France and historic in a rather different way. We are in Paris the morning after French voters surprised the world by not granting Marine Le Penz Rassan party the largest number of
seats in the French Parliament. Instead, her far right grouping came third, it looks like, and the new Popular Front on the left came first. So we have investors financial markets who were priced for a far right victory but probably a logjam in parliament. Instead we got a far left victory but probably a logjam in parliament. And so far, the way they've digested that result is to have the euro a bit weaker, but if anything, interestingly, a slight
strengthening in French bonds relative to Germany. We'll see if that lasts as people start to realize quite how uncertain the future of the government is, and we're going to cut through that fog of uncertainty just a little bit over the next thirty forty minutes or so, here in the atrium of Bloomberg's Paris Bureau, with some very smart
and distinguished guests from the Bloomberg Brains Trust. Starting on my far left, we have leonell Lon, known to many of you a Bloomberg opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe, based here in Paris. And Eleonora Marvuedi, who is the economist for Bloomberg Economics, part of the economic research group that I run as
part of the economics and government coverage at Bloomberg. She's also in Paris, and she's worked at pretty much all the big places OECD, Bank of England, I m F and World Bank, and joining them a very special guest who constitutes the brains Trust all when he's sitting by himself, Jean Clantrichet, obviously former European Central Bank President, Bank of France governor, long standing chair of the Group of Thirty, the Royal Institute in Brussels, and many other things.
We have.
A very kind audience here at what I was told was a slightly earlier hour for Parisian. So I thank you for coming in. In return, you get to ask some questions, I promise, but I must start with you. Jean Crotrichet, analyst, sent me their response to last night's results late last night with just a three word subject for the email. What a mess is that about? Right? Or should we be reassured and pleased by this outcome?
I think it would have been a real mess. If the we have had an absolute majority, there would have been a total mess. If the new popular font would have had an absolute majority, it would also be really a mess. So we are in a situation where things are much better than the mess I was mentioning mess.
I was mentioning that being said, of course, we have a Hong Parliament, which is a complex Hong parliament with a three third one third being clearly with a program which is very very aggressive, I would say, in some respect in terms of economic analysis, center in the second position, who we know him and we know what could be done by the Center, but he's not in the position of being the first parliamentary force. And then we have
the number three, namely the extreme right. So that being said, if we were in another country, we would say, okay, let's compute. Where do we stand. Ah, we have an absolute majority center plus the Republica so I would say Republican Right and plus the Party Socialist. It's a governmental party, proved that he was able to govern France, and so of course, so why not having this kind of coalition. Of course, we are in France, we are not used
to that. We are not in a position to demonstrate to our own people that it would be the right way to proceed. So we will see what happens. But it is obviously complex. Even if virtually I see this possible majority.
You have all your years of experience, and then you also have your hope of what happens for France and for Europe over the next few years. As a result of this, what do you hope will happen in the next few and what do you expect to happen.
As a citizen? I hope that after due meditation, discussion, assessment of the various possibilities, this idea that all taken into account, an alliance of political might that has the experience of government in France, namely the as I said, the Party Socialist, and maybe the gains. On the one hand, the republican republican right, as I said, and the Center could finally have the possibility of governing the country. It's very complex programs we are signed here and there, and
I expect that it would be a long process. But in my opinion as a French citizen, it would certainly be something which would not be abnormal in comparison with all the other European democracies and would permit the country to be governed in a responsible fashion.
You were saying to Francine, I think last week for Bloomberg that you didn't think the US was France was well suited to a technocratic government in the style of Monty government in all drug e governments in Italy. But that would seem to be at least one possibility coming out.
Of this in politics you should never send ever, of course, nevertheless, it is not at all in the French condition. So I maintained what I told Francie. I think that it is not likely at all that we could have some kind of technocratic government in Italy. You not only had Monty and Dagie, you also had President of the Republics that we are coming from the Central Bank, and you had the succession of Prime Minister and then President of
the Republic. I mean, it's it's a strong tradition in Italy, taking into account the complexity of the political life in Italy, taking also into account that there is a place in Roma where you have a very very strong techno structure, which is the Central Bank, and this is recognized by all political parties, by the people of Italy. So we are not in this position. The reason why I don't expect that we could have such but as I said, never said never, and.
In your in your old jobs, you would have been particularly the ECP, you would be wondering about the fiscal financial implications of this uncertainty, and also what it tells us about the direction of French politics and what is going to be possible for President Macron or any future government.
I mean, is the underlying message that this is a government that's going to borrow more and do less to get its public finances and control and less in the way of the business reforms that President Macron was supposed to be forging.
First of all, I expect, of course that now that we know the result, the idea that we could embark on a program that would aggravate the situation in the fiscal side that would aggravate the situation in many respect as regards to the credit worthiness. If I may of the country would appear not being visible at all. So I expect a maturing process from now on that we
know that we have the results the programs. And it was the case of the extreme right program, it's also the case of the extra of the left program, the new for popular we have their programs that are not feasible. Frankly speaking, and in my opinion, in my expert opinion, I'm speaking like an expert, not a French citizen. There I don't think at all that it would be in any respect reasonable to embark into new spendings. We have
no room from a new that's my clear diagnosis. So I expect that being in a position of responsibility, we will see a dramatic realization by the which a political men and women in the question that it would be a catastrophe for the country to embark on additional massive spending.
So that editation, which sounds like a warning.
It's my expectations, it's my hope. Also it's a warning certainly, but the warning is there. I mean, you don't need any warning you have a situation that you have to be responsible in the situation.
NL will this be taken as a warning, as an excuse or a pressure to mature, as Jean Proteiche is hoping advising.
So I think what makes this a bit complicated is that even though some parties are saying that they won selection, I think it's pretty obvious that this was a vote against the penn a vote against certain scenarios, but it was not for anyone. Nobody has an absolute majority, so I think it's frankly exaggerated to imagine as you hear some on the far left immediately saying, this is a vote for our program. So I think programs are going to have to be fluid. I think there's no way
of getting around it. I also think that my hope is that given the kind of extraordinary cynicism almost of the way so these coalitions were constructed, whether it is the far left, which was a real idea logical rainbow that was frankly almost untenable, and also in the center with this tactical voting in the middle, I am hopeful that there is going to have to be some reckoning on the program that comes out of a future coalition. There are the numbers for something approaching I don't want
to jinx it. That's something like starmerism, where you have the Center plus the Greens and the Socialists. The numbers are there, even if the spirit may not be. So I think there is scope to imagine extremes being turned down. My concern is that the campaign itself was really not what I would consider to be a good campaign. It was full of I mean, even setting aside the whole
fake news, there was fake history. There was lots of strange calls to you felt like you were voting for the nineteen thirty of the nineteen forties or nineteen eighties. There was a very little discussion about policy. So I think we may get into a situation where the reckoning of the parties and the elites comes a bit quicker than the reckoning for the voters. It could be quite unstable, and yes it may not last more than a year
when it comes time to put a budget together. But right now I'm definitely more hopeful than I was a couple.
Of days ago.
Well, that's interesting about where we could be in a year's time, which I want to go to in a minute. But eleanor just to say that paint the scene for us a little bit about how much leeway there would be. I mean, Jean Claude is suggesting that the reality will become quite clear that they would be unable to implement certainly seriously expensive policies for the year. But what is the situation that France is in and how much room for maneuver is there.
On that food Well, the situation is France's public finances are strained, that is, high, deficit is widen, interest payments are increasing. It's already considered to be under the excessive deficit procedure of the.
EU, violating the borrowing rules of the European Union exactly.
So deficit is lower than it's higher than three percent and debt is increasing. So the previous government or still current government this morning, has put together a very ambitious program to try to tackle these problems and decrease a deficit by twenty twenty seven and comply partially with their rules. This being highly questioned because it's very ambitious, but it was always the right direction. Now our viue is which whichever coalision or type of government comes in power, there
is likely little effort to do any physical consolidation. So the best will stay at the current baseline, which already violates in the US. Now in the case of left centric government, likely the sent the left willing systems some fiscal spending, but it will have to be much more
moderate than the full NFP program. So for example, what we estimate the NFP program could cost almost three percent of GDP annually, and that would be the freeze the deficits substantially by six bringing it to six point two percent by twenty twenty seven, far away from the roofs. So we if the spending is down to zero point five percent of GDP, still that will have keep the deficit wider than three percent and increase the debt to GDP.
So overall, although there is a little room for any any fiscal spending, there is likely that there would be some to keep everybody having a codition.
Bringing this grouping together and the kind of coalition building or the sort of alliance that was forged last week. Quite a few of mcfar's reforms were already put on hold, including the pension reform. I mean, if you are you're in the business community wondering about the underlying potential of France, and so it's not One of the most important things is sort of the long term, long term growth and
what that enables. Should that be the concern that even with the maturing, even without expensive price tax, you won't get difficult reforms either.
What I have to recognize is that during the seven years of Macro and successive governments, we had quite good policy as regards the micro economics. The I would say attractiveness of the country, the new investment and so forth. The diminishing of the unemployment has been quite spectacular. So this part of the policies were in my opinion, very much on the positive side. The problem was the I
would say, public spendings. What you just said, the way we are not respecting the rules of Europe and also the companies and with other countries that we're behaving quite properly because they had a crisis after demand bother. So that makes a mixed picture. If I may, it would
be in my opinion, extremely bad. Taking into account the starting point to have additional new spendings, you could imagine to have some kind of measures that we will not be new spendings, but we would give certain satisfaction to what I would say, qualify a Republican responsibility responsibilible left and you see what I mean there. So it seems to me that it's not totally impossible not to aggravate the situation, which would be in any case very very bad,
because again, there is no home for maneuvering. And I expect that the realization that there is no room for maneuvering will progressively permit all the political parties leadership to understand that they have no room for manewary, whatever their affiliation, and including when they have signed a program on the left side which is obviously extraordinay ball and obviously extraordinary out of the situation taking into account again the starting point.
Yes, So eleanor do you think in terms of just the cost of the micro slippage and the macro slippage.
Well, I think that if we look at the program in the NFP, there is a lot of suggestion to increased spending on public services, to increase transfers, also reversed the pension reform and partially will be funded by increased axis. What we see is that, yeah, there will be some bushting and GDP in the short term because of increased pending there's no parts on investments that will have longer
term impacts on the potential. Also, a reversal of the pension reform and increasing labor costs could also harm the labor supply. The other potsop is that they clearly stated they're not willing to comply with the austerity rules of the EU. So to what extent the whole NFB will stand behind this statement will determine how much they will moderate their policies.
I mean, the worry would be that a majority of the French people have voted for radical, extreme solutions of one kind or another last night, and if we end up with a quote unquote reassuring combination, which is matured, which is realized, there's no room for maneuver on many of these things. The risk is that the French voters draw the conclusion that they have to vote even more emphatically for extreme because they've just ended up with the same thing they didn't the one thing they didn't want
was a continuation of what they had. Would be the argument, I mean, Leonel, what are the risks of.
That they're obviously present? That's true, I think though that I mean, it's interesting to me that certain figures are making it come back. Francois Land, who arguably pushed through some of the reforms that Macworn benefited from, has now made a kind of political comeback of sorts and is even speaking out against me in Oshal, telling him to keep quiet for for the sake of the left. Now, obviously the left has changed, and I don't think it would be the same kind of left if Hansoiland was
to get a position of power. But I think the constraints that we're talking about are real, they will be felt.
Maybe this this technocratic idea, even if a technocratic government is definitely not on the cards and not a normal French solution, it would be interesting to me if certain positions, if there was a desire to reach out and find certain a political figures, maybe former central bank governments I don't know present company accepted, but people who do have credibility in certain areas like the economy, to ease some of these tensions, because even beyond fiscal spending, there are
deep seated problems in France productivity, innovation, demographics. I mean, these are these are real and if we have no ambition and it's just a government of convenience, that says let's cut here and spend a bit there, We're not going to solve it. So I hope again, my hope is that at some point the politics does have to take a bike a step back on some areage.
I guess strong plot. We should just check it. You available, No, I noticed that you are almost exactly the same age as Joe Biden. For you, don't you think that there has to be some I mean, if you would say, and I think that Marie Napenn would say this, and indeed we should remember she got the same share of
the vote as Kastama's Labor Party. People have voted for change, and if you're trying to respond to that and trying to prevent a move to the extremes, whether it's in a year or an extreme government within a year or within three years. Is the lesson of this that at some level there has to be a shift to the left.
I mean, that's partly what leone saying. I mean, what would be a symbolic but significant move that could be made as that sort of olive branch to the voters who actually feel something has to change.
The main problem is that, as we said, the country looks like being divided in three thirds, and two of the extreme thirds are totally at odds. So we are not in a situation where you can say the people wants changes and we will give them changes, because the changes in question are exactly at the opposite on major, major major points. So we are bound. And it's more one of the first time with the Fifth Republic to
find out a way to get from that position. And my hope, as I said, is that if you take the Republican component of the Parliament, you have the theoretical possibility of having something which would be representative of the people because it represents something like a little bit more than the absolute majority when you add up to the Republicans on the one hand, and the Socialist Party is
said to oversimplify on the other hand. So again everybody now has to reflect mature, as I said, make up his mind, not only of course, the leadership of the political parties, but the people of France. The people of France, they are not stupid. They prove that they were not stupid. They want to changes, but not to that extreme that
they would have rocked totally the boat. So they might reflect themselves on what is happening and I also would bet on the common sense and the responsible I would say, attitude of our own Fero citizens.
Leona, what do you think of the solution, particularly bringing with the Republicans who were not necessarily the great winners of last night's election. How do you think that people would respond to that?
I think it's tough.
I do wonder though, what if we had to find a lowest common denominator between all of these parties, what would it be? I mean, I think clearly taxation, right, taxes are going up, there's going to have to be some kind of concession right on on the wealth tax, on you know, some of the some of the tax proposals on on reforms. I just can't see the pension
reform being rolled back. But already Gabriel Attal who's proven to be the comeback kid and the real political discovery of this, of this whole saga, because he has fecually broken with Maccorn, emancipating himself from Macorn to build this potentially this coalition. And he was the one apparently who said well let's let's suspend this welfare benefit reformers as a gest to the left. So there are gestures to make I think even even with with with le Penn
there was it wasn't even extreme change, right. The whole bet was that there'd be some melonification, that she would be surrounded by experts and technocrats and it wouldn't be the extreme. Well, I think now we have to accept that. You know, there's a Maloney scenario on the right and there's a Starmer scenario on the left. And the real fight over the next few days is to see what what will it take, How how aggressively will sparks fly
to carve off the Republican left from Minoshal. That's the that's the fight.
Do you see individual figures coming out of this, whether it's Gabriel Lettel or Lusman. Do you identify future leaders of some kind of coalition in the current spectrum?
You mean the new prime ministry.
Well in terms of but also in terms of being a potential rallying point for some kind of I mean the discussion that the phrase was parliamentary arc but I mean not just for the bargaining now, but also as a potential candidate in four years time. I mean that's also something we're looking for.
Are we not pronounced on the countdates? Three years time or two years and a half, would not embark on any kind of I would say speculation on the way it will proceed, but at a time after sufficient maturing and then the primary. The President of the Republic has a role to play because they will consult all political parties without exception, and it would also create the sentiment that things are more fluid than we might have thought.
But all that being said, it seems to me that clearly there should be some kind of discussion for I would say, some kind of id majority or coalition that would last for a certain period of time between again what I call the Republican left, the Republican right, and the center, and you identify very clearly who would be the negotiating parties there. I agree that it's clear that
a new program has to be set up. This new program, in my hope, would not comprehend any kind of net additional spending, because I share entirely of views that you expressed on the fact that there is no room for manualing, absolutely no room for manuring, not only in terms of I would say europe and European roles, but also no room for manuring in terms of preserving as much as possible the credit worthiness of the signature, and that is
extremely important. That being said, of course, you have measures that can be taken without having a cost, and that might permit the I would say left on the one hand and the center right on the other hand, to be reasonably satisfied in the circumstances. So it is my hope, but it is also my expectations, because I don't see anything else to permit the country to proceed.
That's a good spot to leave it for some questions from the audience or indeed any of the Bloomberg people here, Yes, in the back there.
Hell, you mentioned a couple of times measures that now course that could please their left wing Republican parties. Could you name a couple of them that you may expect?
No, No, I'm not rapping the new program. I'm sorry. Well, but my neighbors can do.
That, eleanor can think of anything.
It's a bit difficult to thing of them maybe not doing, for example, the unemployment reform, the unemployment benefits reform. It's in a way not adding benefits.
What is it just those who does follow all of the reforms, which what would that be? What is that?
So the current government has agreed to do any unemployment benefits reform that would start in July right now, and that will decrease the duration of the unemployment benefits and also tighten the rules for being eligible for unemployment benefits.
And the estimate of the government was that these will add three point six billions of savings annually, So not doing that would keep the would have no impact because currently it's not accounted in our in the baseline, so the MF baseline or our baseline, but will keep the left happy.
Jacqueline Simmons, he runs our European coverage.
There have been steps forward with respect to incentivizing the finance and business community, which I think is reflected in this room today just in the way of you know again incentives and also centering Paris as a sort of financial hub post brexit. And I just wondered when any of you thought about what kind of paralyzing impact this might have, or last night's results might have on this community.
Well, in my view, the first question is what will be the labor costs in the future, What will be the spending in terms of labor cost well, then going to increase or not if we embark into more left wing policies that's likely to happen. Also, what will happen with the labor force supply in general, what will happen with the rest of the reforms on the the incentivize people to get back into the into the workforce. But also there is a there is a question of how
the markets will react to this uncertainty. And for example, with lingering potay of fiscal slippage and this political uncertainty, we expect that markets may spreads might stay wide as the current at the current levels for a bit longer until things settle down or in the case that there is any more likely to spend more left wing spending, then spreads even my White's further by for example fifty
basis points compared to the current levels. That creates uncertainty and will make markets to look to be careful in the coming days in the weeks.
Jactor, where do you think people who are moving to France who stayed here?
I would say, first of all, let's take also into account the fact that the worst has been avoided in terms of frightening newcomers and or investors savers of France, Europe and the entire world. So that's something which we should not forget. Second, I would say that all will depend precisely on this maturing process. I was mentioning which is a multi party and I would say multi citizens naturing process. So we will see again. I am reasonably optimistic,
as you could see. But of course, when you take a decision, you want to take your decision on the basis of facts, and we will see how things are moving from now on. Again, it seems to me that there is some kind of common sense solutions that would normally please all parties concerned and be the best for our fellow citizens. But because after all, a democracy must give the maximum amount of satisfaction to the fedow citizens.
But it is.
Absolutely clear that programs that are not visible in any case are doing a lot of harm to the Fedow citizen. I was myself experiencing that because when we had the crisis in Europe, have to say that those that have been spenders and spenders and spenders had to tell their fellow citizens we are very sorry, but now you have to tighten your belt your belts, and that is very
very difficult, it is terrible. So again, being really reasonable is something which is very important for our fellow citizens. And they expect again that this very complex s meduling process we'll proceed from no One.
Yeah, no, I guess it will obviously not come as easily to a left government than it did to mac Horn to do things like the Choose France summit, and even to talk about the Capital Markets Union. I think, you know, that does not seem to be part of the part of the current speech. If we think of the kind of extreme case, it's in the nineteen eighties when Mitihont came to power, there were nationalizations and its appropriations.
Obviously we're not talking about that. And I guess we could also think, well where, you know, if it is just a question of changing city every few years, where do people go. I mean, this is a global phenomenon, a European phenomenon. It's interesting to me that in Italy you still have all of these tax breaks to attract foreign investors in hedge fund managers, even with a right
wing populist coalition. So and also I think even the Left Bloc talked about being open to defense fiscal integration at the European level, but with defense as the hook. So there are some I think avenues to kind of incite investment, but I think it will obviously not be with the same supply side focus as McCaul has been so far.
If you pull back the lens from a from a
global investing standpoint, and indeed a geopolitical standpoint. No. Bloomberg Economics has done important research showing how Europe as a group has fallen behind the US and its economic potential over the last ten years as a twenty nearly twenty percent gap that's open up on course to be a forty percent gap in the future if there's no improvement in the underlying fundamentals, the kind of things that you would need to do to untap the kind of investment needed,
because it seems it's investment that's the gap is capital markets union is potentially joint debt issuance to underpin investments in green technologies, all of these things that we talk about, the digitalization of the economy, encouraging more high tech successes. In confronting a US government which under whatever president, is going to be pushing money into industrial policy and forging a very different, perhaps more interventionist, more mercantilist economic policy.
Before this election, we would have said that the big question mark around whether Europe could possibly do that is the Franco German weakness, is the weakness of that relationship, but also the fact of the two of the two leaders present, Macon and Olaf Schultz, both both being extremely weak.
I mean that doesn't change, Jean Claud. I mean, if you are looking to Europe to have to actually step up and do things over the next few years in response to China and the US, that seems less likely, even less likely now than a week ago, or just as unlikely.
It doesn't seem to be unlikely at all, to be Frank, because there is a recognition, there is a joint diagnosis on the fact that we cannot stay as we are with the US on the one hand and China on the other hand, on a number of very very important issues like high tech, like the platforms, the digital digitalization
of our continent, and so forth and so forth. So I think that this is the underlying diagnosis which is present, which is recognized more or less by the various countries concern whether or not with this result of this election, the cooperation between Germany, France and all others will be oversimplified or over complicated. We will see you again I'm not necessarily pessimistic, but the fact is that it was not working very well. But we just addressed the question
of eighty one and the program of eighty one. I only want to remind all of us when the Left came in power in eighty one, we had overall outstanding debt as a proportion of GDP of twenty percent of the GDP. We are at tw one hundred and eleven percent of GDP. We had a deficit of minus zero point one percent of the GDP. We had minus five point five or something. So we are in a very difficult different situation and we have to take account, of course, of that. It seems to be very important now on
what you said on the US versus Europe. You are right in terms of absolute GDP and absolute GDP per capita. But part of the difference between the US and US is that the European, for their own I would say sake, prefer not to work too much. And this is true in all European countries. I was surprimed myself to read check with Germany, and in Germany you have a lot
of part time jobs. That makes all taken into account, the number of our work quite miserable in comparison with the US and the same or less and certainly the same in the UK too. I mean, we we are living in a different universal disrespect and of course it makes an enormous difference. But when I look at the best countries in Europe and the productivity our works, the
difference is not that big. And also we have to take into account, of course that a lot of European countries are catching up even on the best European not necessarily on the best European states, So all American states all taken into account. I think that we should not overdo the difference between the US and Europe, even if they are absolutely clear. I would say elements and sectors where we are absolutely miserable and we have to work on not being that miserable in the London all right.
Well, a final question from Alan Katzachi.
You mentioned Jeanie, You mentioned that lady, and I'd like to go back a little bit further. You also talked about how the president will have to meet with every single political party. There has to be a maturing process. Everything you say reminds me of what the French rejected, which was the Fourth Republic before Charles de gaup put in the Fifth Republic. You know, we had this constant negotiation with various parties in Parliament. It was an unstable situation.
In what way is it the same now as it was pre nineteen fifty eight and in what ways is it different.
First of all, the President of the Republic has powers that the President of the Fourth Republic had not, so that is very clear. In particular in appointing the Prime Minister, it's a decision of the President of the Republic himself
according to the Constitution. We also have to recognize that the Fourth Republic didn't do such a bad job, all taken into account, of course, the main problem of the Fourth Republic it was in impossible for them to i would say, face up with the Algerian War, and the Fifth Republic came out of this absolutely capacity of the Fourth Republic to face up with that war. But all taken into account in the economic and functionial sphere, and even in the defense sphere, because the nuclear deterrent of
France started under the Fourth Republic. So all taken in all the res taken into account, it was not that
such a poor political system. So if we are we won't be closer to the Fourth Republic in my opinion, because of the institutions of the Fifth Republic, but we would be closer perhaps to other European As a matter of fact, there's not a single European country which had the equivalent of the Fifth Republic, and they all have those negotiations to have a coalition with various political sense stivities after the election, and we are more or less
pushed in this direction, which again I would not consider absurd, and the reference to the Fourth Republic doesn't seem to be sufficient to say no, no, let's not do that. Comparison with the other countries in Europe is something which is quite an argument or embarking on such discussions.
As you know, the way people see these things is two data points. Is a trend. We have a Keir Starmer labor government in the UK. We have the left out performing all expectation here in France. Is there a possibility that this is the beginning of the end for the rise of the populist right that we hear about or is it actually just been a dress rehearsal for next time when they'll manage it.
I said never said never in politics, So no, I would say it is a clear sign that at a certain moment there is a popular reaction because clearly we are living in a democracy. The votes are secret, the bulletin are put in the envelope by each individual, each I would say, fellow citizens totally independently, and nobody knows and can know what he's doing. So it seems to me that the sign that has been given by the
French people, the French citizenship, is very, very important. But I will not draw definitive conclusion on the fact that now there is aggressive with rowal of public take into account as that in the left constituency there are also populist elements in the left. They are also part of the political spectrum.
You know, well, no, I don't Populism is not going to be defeated this this They are not part of the furniture.
That's just a fact.
The US, the UK, I mean, Trump may come back later this year, and in the UK Nigel Farage is even has an even bigger pulpit than ever. So I think we shouldn't get too attached to the idea that nothing should change or shouldn't change too much in purchasing power, inflation and immigration were the two top concerns for voters
in this election. And if we don't even try and offer some kind of dream to people who have seen real wages squeezed, to feel their living standards of declined, and where the divide between rural and urban France is still as deep as ever, then we are going to get the pen again in a year.
Or two years or three years.
So let's let's let's not forget that.
Okay, we have a message of I think we've cut through some some fog, we have some optimism, but also taking some important lessons from this from this result, and of course we've still got plenty of plenty to watch the next few weeks because we don't know what's going to happen. But thank you for all being here for our recording of voter Nomics from our Paris bureau, and thank you to our excellent guests Leonell Laurent, Eleonora mabro
Edi and of course Jean Claude Triche. Subscribe to voter Nomics wherever you listen to podcasts, everyone in this room, I shall expect to do that, and if there was anything you didn't quite catch, you will also be able to hear it on the Voto Nomics podcast feed, but from Paris. Thank you very much.