22 ETFs to Watch in '22

thought your resolution was gonna be to clean your closet. Yeah, you know, we we've been for those not in the know, I've been recording in my closet for many, many many episodes of Trillions. It's actually my wife's closet. But yeah, here we are to answer your question though. Yes. Um. So every year we write all these outlooks and it's all very you know, sell side research ish. But one thing we do that's a little buzzfeedish is a listical twenty two et s for and sometimes we do retail

conferences and the doing yourself retail investors. They don't really care that much about like how much is going from advisors to brokers and some of that, like more trendy stuff. They were just they want tickers. They they want to learn e t s through tickers. They want genuine ideas of of interesting new innovative products and whatnot. So we did this because of that. And we don't necessarily these ATMs are gonna go up. We're down. We don't make any advice, but these are e t f s that

we just can't get off our mind. They're ones that have really just stuck into our brain and we feel like tap into bigger themes that we're watching as well, and so we do it every year. And so we have um, you know, Ethanacios, James and Rebecca on our team who all contributed some of the e t s of the twenty two So joining us on this epposite of trillions, James Staffert, Athan Nacios, Seraphagus, and Rebecca Sin

from Hong Kong. We're going to patch in so that she can contribute despite being at a different time zone from the rest of us recording. And we're gonna hear about some investing ideas for the next year. And don't take this as investment advice. They're just ideas that hopefully that the way we're phrasing ConTroll is ets to watch, okay, watch sign off compliance, check that box. Okay, thanks for that.

I also want to confess that we had some technical difficulties with my mike, so what follows may sound a little differently than I usually sound. Sorry about that this time on Trillions twenty two e t F s Athanasios, I'm gonna call you by your non Greek name from now on, which is Tom. That sounds good, and we're gonna start with you give me your picks. How am I going to make money in t F picks? Go? All right, I'm gonna come in hot with this first one.

It's probably the biggest story of last year. Cathy would right an ARCS fund, but I'm going on the opposite side with the Shore arc fund. So it's s A r K, which is the Tunnel Capital Short Innovation e t F. I get it launching inverse. ETF is hard. Markets tend to go up over time. I like this one. It's got a lot of attention, very very quickly. Kathy has a lot of haters out there. If you look at performance it just launched, then I think, like November,

it's up already. Historically, that's one of the best performing ets out of the gate. It's already got some volume I'm calling this one like a mini s q q Q. I think there's gonna be a good enough ecosystem around it that I think this product will be around for a while. Okay, so for that to succeed, Kathy has to fail right at the highest level. Yes, but if you look at something like s q q Q, right, so,

over time markets go up. But I was actually pretty interested to see that even with the queues going up so much, the assets and sqq have been going up. So yeah, if Cathy's fund does well, just over time is gonna be going down. But the way her fund has actually been forming pretty recently, Uh, this has been doing really good. Like I said, the funds up launched, and not even the performance. I think if you can build a pretty strong trading ecosystem, I think this is

what's going to keep this product alive. It's even just as much as the performance. And just remember s q q Q is obviously short the cues, and I think a lot of people look at SPY is sort of like the market. The cues is sort of like innovative tech, and then Cathy is like nonprofitable tech like stuff that hopefully we'll pay off weight on the road, and now she's actually creating her own little qui ish world. So I think this is actually a compliment or good for her.

It'll because when this thing gets money, it's got to buy a r k K. So it's all kind of integrated into the Kathy ecosystem. So I think the liquid it is good. But I agree Tom, this is one that will probably have nice little spurts when ARC is sold off. Okay, next, Okay, this one sounds boring, but I think it's actually indicative of a much bigger thing.

B KLC, which is the Bank of New York melon US Large Camp Cory TF, which is just basically um like a generic type of the SMP or one of those like generic large cap broad uh E T S. Why this one is different. It's free, has a zero expense ratio, right, so who who's not going to want a free E T F. I actually taking this pick as a product that I think is not going to raise that much money even though it's free, because when we look at what it's up against, right signed just

Trump Vanguard, I get it. Being cheap is a good lane. You want to be in it. It's traducing work. Vanguard already owns that space. And if you look at what v O O can even do with tracking and total cost of ownership, you already getting the O for free. So I don't I think crying that money out of the O O is gonna be really really hard for this product. So I actually think that this is a case that even if it's free, it's not going to raise any money. Well, I will say it has four

fifty million. That's probably a lot of B y O A, which is money coming in through their clients. But you know this is the idea. Bank of New York is a big custodian. They have a lot of they serve a lot of advisors. They can say, hey, look what by the ACME brand instead of Vanguard, it's three basis points cheaper and obviously maybe a coupe people are doing that next. All right, So Eric said, I can pick one European one and it doesn't have use. It's in

the name, so it's fine. Uh, But I love this ticker. It's a CEO two uh. And this is the spark change physical carbon uh etc. And so carbons that been a really hot item. So what this does is advised carbon allowances. So I don't know if people know how those work. It's essentially like a permit that people could that companies can use to pollute. Right, So as companies want to buy these up, this e t F actually

has two benefits. One, it's just going to track the price of these carbon credits right as they go up and then the demand they're gonna they're gonna track that price. But what's so different about this product compared to any other et F out there that that's tracking carbon credits. It actually owns the credits. So this is almost like a hoarder in a way, and that it's buying the credit ETFs taking it off the market so companies can't use them. It's actually taking the supply out of the market.

So it's basically saying that even if companies wanted to buy these credits to the loot, they can't because we're buying up all the supply. And then that also will probably end up could potentially also end up moving the price a little bit higher as well, just because you're limiting it. So so they're actually like a market maker because they're able to take onto their books an asset

that companies are are trying to get. Yeah, exactly. If you look at some of the other carbon ones that have done well, they're all just tracking futures, so parallels what's happening with bitcoin futures versus physical They're actually owning the credit, so even if you wanted to buy them, they're hoarding them. So I think it's a really interesting strategy. It's the first of its kind, um and I like I like the physically back aspect compared to some of

the other things anything. Yeah, they've actually done quite a bit. They're over a hundred million, uh and only a couple of months, and that's in Europe, so that's actually really impressively in the context of that market. It's really really good. It's a very very strong that makes up for your previous pick, which was a little boring. Let's see what you got for number or alright, this one's boring too, but it's uh. It's sp I B, which is a

Spider portfolio intermediate term corporate bond ETF. They cut their fee on this, so they vanguarded vanguarded, and Vanguard ended up cutting the fee. But what I think this is so important is if you look at the fixed income et F market, it's all black Rock and Vanguard. They're they're like eighty percent of the assets. State Street really missed an opportunity here, and they were one of the original,

you know, ones that could launch fixed income ets. I think they're gonna put a lot of effort into their fixed income line up with fee reductions, maybe launching more products. I just think this is the way that they're And if you look at what's happening the rest of their business, you know they're losing share too. I shares in Vanguard, So I actually think they're gonna really try to make it up on the fixed income side. So I'd be looking for some really really aggressive moves for State Street

in their fixed income space. And I'm just picking this et F as a proxy just because they were so aggressive with some of the recent feet cuts. All Right, I'm still bored. Giving some fireworks to end, Okay, I think this is a pretty nice picker. It's MVPs, which is the amplified thematical Austar e t F. Now how we were talking about KATHY before. Just thematic ets in general have gotten so so large. It's like one of

the biggest categories now sector wise. But the space has gotten so big that when you say, hey, okay, I want to buy an autonomous vehicle et F for CYBERSECURITYF there's so much out there that actually the performance dispersion is pretty wide. You can have a very different experience

than someone else with bought a different product. So what this tries to do is cut through the middle of that, saying, yeah, there's all these different thematic products, but where's that one point where they all meet, where the highest conviction thematic picks of all these e t s And the category

is so big that this actually matters. So I think over time, not only is this gonna so it's recally sited down the middle, I actually think it's gonna do better than the average because it's not just you know, it's trying to be sort of a diversified thematic thing, but the fact that it's choosing the highest conviction names, I think it's actually a little bit better than average. So I think it's just I like this product because it cuts through all that thematic performance dispersion, which is

in its only forty nine basis points, it's pretty concentrated. Uh, I think those are it's a good you know, good price points. I'm gonna be honest and say that the ticker was better than your explanation. But you know that's just the brutal reality of it, and you know, don't don't don't don't read into it too much, you know, I would I would add like to throw in some of the stats that that Athan or Tom mentioned. Uh, they have a hundred James is gonna bail you out?

James is gon no. I I love this pick from tom um. The sector if you can consider thematic ets a sector like Tom mentioned there, it's the second largest sector of e t s. There's a hundred and sixty one billion assets and these types of etf SO and there's we have a ton of different categories in the dashboard, and it's continually growing. It's one of the fast growing enitors of the market. So I'm definitely gonna be watching

m vps as well. I believe this one also has the most overlap with arc right, didn't um what's his name, Mike, I can show that. So for Texas Harvesting, Yeah, because I'm looking Tesla Navidio um Block, these are cathy stocks Shopify. I really like products that try to cut through the noise. Where do we all agree where do all these products agree and I think there's some benefit there and just finding these really high conviction picks. Rebecca Hong Kong Holcong

is doing well. Happy New Year, Happy New Year to YouTube. Okay, I want to hear your picks. Which one are you most excited about? Let's start with that one. The one I'm probably most excited about is electric vehicle. And the reason why I chose electric vehicle is that there's been a lot of growth in this sector, especially in China. So within the electrical vehicle in China, we've seen some of the ets return more than and one of the main reasons for China's growth is that they're starting from

a much lower base. So Chinese electric vehicles posted greater returns than they did in the US. So, for instance, if we look at some stats like their new energy vehicle, it contributed to of the return. Looking at one year earlier, the return was only eight percent. And so the Chinese

market has a lot more growth potential. And with a chip shortage easing and everyone looking for driverless cars and not autonomous technology and robotics as well as E s G. Favorite themes, I believe that electric vehicles will do really well, and the one that I picked is global X Autonomous Electric Vehicle Drive US, which captures this segment at only sixty five basis points. So the ticker is drive. Wow, that's an amazing ticker. Eric, how come we've never talked

about that one before? We might have brought it up. I mean there's a couple electric vehicle e t F s out there. UM, I know, I did it once on our e t F battles with Rondo Legy and I get asked a lot about electric vehicle ets. It's one of the most pop That and Bitcoin are the probably the two most questions I get for like regular people. Um, I think people have seen non Tesla car companies get into electric vehicles and they're like, you know, this is

it's going to take over. They can see Tesla a little electric pumps showing up at the wah wah or the seven eleven or whatever, and they're like, this is really happening. So I agreat. I think this is a big theme. I think some of these stocks though you probably find other funds, but for the most part, I think this is exactly why theme ets were invented. Electric vehicles is definitely has a bright future. Okay, Number two.

Number two is metaverse. Everyone's heard of metaverse. But one of the things that's interesting is that the metaverse ets actually started a lot longer before Facebook rebranded to meta and so I may have predicted that the metaverse e t F universe may reach eight billion by four which might be a little bit aggressive, but we've had a

lot of progress since that. And so even in Asia, in Korea, we had four metaverse ets launch on the exact same day, and two of the e t F Sampson and Maria, managed to reach more than one hundred million in only six days, which is very quick for

reaching a hundred million. And so the metaverse et F has surpassed more than two point three billion in December, and so I think that there's a lot of growth opportunity, and I know a lot of other regions, for instance, in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, they're looking to launch metaverse

e t s as well this year. So the US is leading the race at more than one point four billion in assets under management round Hill Balls Metaverse et F meta US leads the pack in terms of having the largest assets under management, but there are other ETFs that are going to join and I see that a lot more et fish where is jumping in on the

bandwagon for metaverse products? Okay, and of course if you want to learn more about this metaverse space, we did a great episode with Rebecca and Matt Ball, who is the brain behind the Meta e t F. So you can check that out. That was just a couple of months ago. Uh yeah, I mean if one thing on Meta in the U s here that E t F. There was a four hundred and fifty ish launches last year of natural organic flows. That was the third most

successful of all four fifty. That's a big feat. And honestly, they got a huge break when Facebook changed their name to Meta. That's when that was like a catalyst moment because I think they maybe might have had like sixty million now they have almost a billion. Sometimes it's good to be lucky, but they, you know what, they were ahead of the curve and that's important. You gotta be out, you gotta be in it to win it. Chill, we'll see if it wins it, but definitely have a lot

of investor enthusiasm. Okay, what's next, Rebecca. The next one is cathy Woods flagship Arc innovation. A r K k U S can't talk about e t S without talking about this one the number one performing fund in but then it didn't do so well in one in, so I believe there's a lot of growth potential for it in. Ultimately, this fund tracks five areas within the technology sector, which includes DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology.

I believe that as the world becomes more dependent on technology, there's a lot of growth opportunity for this. So look, ARC has come down to earth a bit um, you know, down since February. It had to happen. It was up too much. I think everybody saw it was like, how on Earth could have fund returned this much in a year um, and I think over five years though it's still an annualized return of like I mean, that's ridiculous. But a lot of people came in at the high,

so some people are underwater. It's ongoing controversy, but the fact is not a lot of people left the fund, and I think the reason for that is again, they have cheap beta. They've got all the serious investor fundamentally sound stocks covered in their cheap beta. Part of their portfolio, so they already own all that stuff, because that's what people ding Cathew on their Oh you you own all

these nonprofitable crazy stocks. But most people are like, yeah, that's a feature, not a bug, because I already owned the fundamental stuff. I want Kathy for that potential huge payoff, the dreamers kind of stocks and you know that asymmetric return potentially, and I think they buy into her five year a plan. I mean she's basically said this is going to take a little while, and um, I think you know, her personality is also a big part of it.

So it's really interesting that people haven't left, and I think Cathy would and ARC will be around for a long time. If you cannot see outflows after draw down, that is a really really good sign. Okay, Rebecca, last pick, your last pick. My last pick is going to have to be China focused. Since I am based in Hong Kong.

China has had lots of difficulties in but I believe that there are pockets of growth in China in despite Beijing's regulatory crackdown straight to US relations, there are opportunities of growth and some of these include clean energy, electric vehicles, tech, healthcare,

and China A shares. I'd say specifically where there's maybe the most opportunity would be within China tech and the reason for this is because it's been massively hit in hit more than fifty due to Beijing's regulatory crackdown, and the one I picked is Crane Shares CSI. China Internet

k WEB. What's most interesting about k web is that despite the drop of more than fift they managed to get four billion dollars worth of inflows, and so more than of the assets under management came in as the fund was dropping, and so there's a lot, ultimately a lot of people looking to invest into China technology and this is a great et f for that, and the

thesis here being that it won't get worse. We believe that China's technology sector has already been hit a lot and that there will be a rebound in at what time It's to be determined. Ultimately, it is very dependent on the government. But there is still a lot of growth opportunity within the China sector and so I think that it will rebound. Yeah. And actually, Rebecca, I think the flows into k web are actually even a little more by the end of the year. I think they

were like seven point five billion. That the spread between negative and plus seven billion. That that's an insane spread between performance and flows. Um as um Athanasio has put it, it's in the buy the dip hall of fame for sure. At some point these people will be rewarded. But also there's not many dips to buy anymore. I mean, everything's up all the time. It's like a utopia out there. Um and this was a huge dip for people to buy into. I can't believe k web is the biggest

China et F in the US. It's past m SHI and FX and all these like broader based ones that you think would be way bigger. It's like it's like having an awful draw out was like the best thing that ever happened to it, I think within the China sector also though, there are so many Chinese ETFs that people often don't know which one to invest into, and so Crane Shares has done a well done, really good job at providing a niche exposure to the Chinese markets.

And if you look at the Cream Shares product offer, they have everything from electric vehicles to clean energy to healthcare, as well as China A shares, which are really the large segments, and so there's no other ETF issue in the US that covers the China market as well as cream shares ANTI and to this point about being the hot sauce on top of cheap beta. If a lot of people are own an Emerging markets et F like i MG um, you have China covered to a large extent.

But k web can actually be put on top of that because there isn't a ton of overlap between i MG or e M and k WEB. So I think k web has been a little bit of an arc as well in the way it's used in a portfolio. So I agree. Crane Chairs is a really a company doing a lot. And Ethanols just talked about the carbon et F earlier. They have a carbon credit et F coming out I believe in a couple of months as well. Okay, James, those are hard knocks to follow, no pressure. What do

you got in the third quarter for US? Yeah, So the first one, I'm gonna start with his biddow, which made biggest headlines in Key four possibly the first bitcoin futures et F launch in the US, first bitcoin ETF, but unfortunately as futures I'm watching this obviously because everyone's talking about bitcoin and have been for a while, but also because, as I mentioned, attracts futures, and there's issues

with futures ets involving role costs. So essentially, when you buy futures, you have to sell the current contract and buy the next one, and there's costs in doing that, and we want to watch see how much those role costs add up. Currently there are about two point seven percent and it's only about it's only been existing for two and a half months, so um, at that rate, we're gonna be overlve annual role costs to have exposure

to this thing. But again, this thing does have hot, tight spreads, no commissions to trade at things like that, so we're just gonna be watching this ecosystem. I think there's there's two other et f s out there right now. There might be more of the cold bitcoin futures, and I think there could be some competition amongst like how well do they track spot bitcoin and them marketing against each other. Hey, by the way, real quick, I'm looking at the volume on biddow and it's never traded under

a hundred million dollars in a day since birth. That that that there's no way that's been there's a precedent for that. Yeah, I can't think of anything. It's crazy. It's definitely a good trading vehicle. I just it's just there's definitely issues for it as as a long term holding vehicle because of those role costs that can add up. Okay, non bitcoin news, what you got for us? Okay? So

the next one is going to be vote. Um Vote is Engine the Engine number one transformed five t F. This is just it basically holds the five d largest US US stocks. It charges five basis points, and it's an E s G E t F, but it doesn't do anything in its investments to be E s G. It's E s G through it's it's proxy voting, and it's basically an activist investing with money behind it. So they had they had a campaign where they want to get exon. That's when that's how Engine number one got

its big name. They're doing stuff with GM and electric vehicles. Um. So this is just a whole different way to spin E s G investing that obviously, I'm gonna be watching to see how it works out. It's almost about almost a three million, it's about six seven months old. And it's been taken in money pretty consistently, two million here, three million there. Ever, since it's launched, pretty much every

single week is taken in somebody. So it's it's gonna be interesting to see how this does, especially compared to the more traditional asset managers that are doing the massive exclusionary UH S G E T F strategies. Also, I like Vote as well, UH namely because with E S G, E T S you have a chance of underperforming. Here you don't. It tracts the SNP and it's van Guardian

price point, so I like it. We actually interviewed the vote people UM what like six months ago droll, and they gave us a lot of information about their process. It's it was a good episode. I would go check it out if you're interested to learn more. Yep. That was with with Charlie Penner, who led the campaign against Exxon. UM. Okay, James, what else you got? So the next one I'm gonna so I'm very interested to watch how rate hedg gtfs go. There's a lot of talk about inflation. The Fed's gonna

raise rates. UM. There's always this talk since basically UM people want to hedge rising rates Uh. These things have been around since then and they just haven't picked up that much in the way of assets. But that really changed in these things took in over two billion in assets. So one example that is the I G b H, the interest the I shares, interest rate hedge long term

corporate bond DTF. There's also l Q d H. There's a lot of corporate bond and bond TTF that just have a hedge on them, which basically means they're shorting treasuries. So I'm gonna be watching to see if these continue to gain assets and if they are outperforming as rates rise. Um, we could see people piling up, piling on in uh in the performance chasing manner. Okay, time out of these interest rate hedge gtfs are really interesting. Obviously they need

the stars to align. But I wonder if the currency hedged e t F phenomenon of what is it like wig? It was big, everybody rushed in. It took sixty billion dollars in, but then it's it's sort of stopped working and everybody pulled out. It started working again, and no one bought back in. They didn't get a second bite of the apple. I wonder if the rate hedge gtfs are tainted because of the currency hedge DTF, people who may got burnt rushing in and then realizing it doesn't

outperform forever. Tom, what's your take on that. Yeah, I think that's a good point. A lot of histories and indication, whether it's the currency edge or even the arc stuff, people coming late into these products. So I think when people are going to allocate the currents to rate hedge, it will be too rate. Yeah, that's I know, that's dismal. People suck at timing. I guess that's what I essentially said.

I also think that with rate hedging, the outperformance isn't as shiny ish, and so it's not going to attract as many eyeballs as it did on the international equity side. But we'll see, okay, James, let's hear it. Okay, bring it home. Yeah. So I So the next one I I talked about is f R d M, which is the Freedom one hundred Emerging Markets etf UM. I kind of view this in as similar light as I view vote.

It's another play on E s G, except because when you talk about this so emerging market, China's makeup of the Emerging market index by market cap. So a lot of people talk about using e s G investing in e s G and then they just buy a broad emerging markets e t F and China is arguably doing a lot of things that would go against E s G principles, which actually it's not really arguable that they are doing a lot of things that go against the

s G principle. And what this what this e t F does is it kind of ranks countries and they scores them by like protector how they protect life, liberty and property rights, so human rights, economic freedoms, things like that. So China gets booted out of this e t F. There's a few other countries they have booted out. It's just a different play and emerging markets exposure. It's kind of like an E s G exposure to emerging markets. UM So I'm going to be very interested to see

how this does going forward. It's a crossed over a hundred million just recently. Um So that's another thing we're watching again, a tilt on E s G. Again, we had Perth toll On who started f R d M, who grew up in China. Um we had her on before she was cool too, where she got you know popular. Uh,

this is one of her early episodes. I will say, I gotta say it's a little bit of a shame that f r d M is at a hundred million dollars, which is good, that's healthy for indie, but the black Rock x China um is like well over a billion because a lot of people are liking this trade, but they're they're doing it through the e M x China. I think f r d M actually goes a little further and says it's not just China, there's some other countries that are uh equally as bad in terms of

their freedom score. But she had the idea, and it just it's kind of, I don't know, a little bit of shame that there wasn't more traction there since it seemed to be her idea originally. But that's sort of what distribution can do. I think, yeah, it's e M x C and it's over two billion now. But one big, one big thing to say is what you mentioned it f r d M does more than just screen out China, screens out a couple other countries. The other thing is

e M x C is half the price. So fr d M is about forty nine BIPs and E m x C ISPs, so that's another contributing factor. Hold on, I have to see the performance of the three. Yeah, so it looks like E m x C is up eight percent, f r d M is up four point six percent, and E is down four percent for the year. So maybe E m XC has a little lecture performance, but I think it's more black Rock and the brand

name and distribution. Okay, final pick James, and I think I think I know what it is from last year, right. He loves this. He can't stop thinking about it. This is it like his significant other. I honestly get more questions on this product than any other product. You can put put ten products together, and I get more questions on this one product than all those ten together. And it's it's stopped talking about your extra It's uh. It's g b T the Gray School, the Gray Scale Bitcoin

trust Um. Technically it's not in e t F, but it's the biggest. It's a multi thirty billion dollar product. It's could been over forty billion UM. It's a it's a behemoth that's trades otc um, but it has huge issues.

It's trading at a discount right now, there's there's some concerns around it, but what gray Scale wants to do is convert this to an e t F. Now, with the SC approving the Bitcoin Futures ETF like bid, which I already talked about, has opened some avenues for Gray Scale to kind of like possibly file a lawsuit against the SEC for not treating like situations alike. Um, So we're gonna see some SEC responses to other bitcoin applications over the next few months, specifically some big ones in April,

and then the GBTC decision is due July six. So over those next few months, I'm gonna be watching very closely to see what kind of language the SEC uses and how they handled the GBTC decision. We do expect them to deny it, but if they do deny it, I would, honestly I expect Gray Scale to possibly file and a lawsuit citing a a p A violation. Yeah. Look, the lure here for GBTC is that it's premium. So if and when it gets SEC says you can convert,

that's instant profit. I mean, you should be made whole pretty quickly, and that's what people But it's just a question of how long GIF to weight guys, I don't think ENS is going to approve a spoty TF while he's in office. That's my new thing. I'm pretty well A lawsuit could could James, but it also could agitate because um Gray gray Scale has a couple of these products which arguably the SEC could like look at because they aren't you know, they aren't really that functionally good.

I mean they had they traded wide prims and discounts. So do you want to I mean, I look, I'm all four. I think the SEC should approve this stuff. The lawsuit does it great? I just if I was an issuer, I don't know if I'd want to agitate them like that. I don't know. It's a fascinating The one O. The one other thing I would say is

it's more than just twenty two, so it's at a discount. Theoretically, if it par is one hundred and it's trading at seventy eight, to go from seventy to a hundred is almost a thirty percent increase, not a increase, So it's it actually is more than the discount when it goes back to whatever NAV would be if it does get approved but again, I don't think it's happening in two, but I'm going to be watching very closely for what the SEC says over the next six months. All right,

thanks James. That's five plus four plus five is is let to do that fourteen to get to two. We need eight more, so Eric, I guess you're on the hook for for eight. Let's go. Yeah. We we just hired two new people, but they're not up and writing yet, so next year they're going to handle this. So I took double load. Uh, because you know that's what you gotta do sometimes, you know, you gotta alright, alright, alright, big man, let's hear it and then we'll we'll decide

how how great these ideas are. Okay, you want that? You want the shiny ones first or the boring ones first? I mean the boring ones first. Like Tom did a you know, set the table there by giving us some joking. Tom's okay, okay, go ahead quickly. T LT long dated Treasury is probably the most boring thing out there. But when the market sells off the stock market, these t l T is the one of the best all natural organic hedges out there. Almost every time the markets we

look back, it almost offsets all your stock classes. It's the hedge that bitcoin and gold can only dream of being. In fact, gold is like us what it is. It's usually like flat. Bitcoin goes down worse than the market. So I I really wouldn't I went back and ran this state. I would look at bitcoin or crypto as a high beta stock, not a hedge, and maybe not even a store of value. Although James will probably get

triggered by that. But I also think not that I don't like bitcoin, I just think it behaves like a high beta stock. And then t l T. I think next year, the market has gone up the last three years. That is triple what you're supposed to get historically, so we're we're like living way above our means in the S and P. So I would perceive a rougher year, and I think t LT will will will show again it's a good hedge. UM and v T I another boring one that's the Vanguard Total Market. I also picked

this one last year. I think this is a perfect et F. It's fomo proof and owned small caps, midcaps, value growth, whatever is doing well, you own it, even meme stocks. And I do think overtime vt I will be the biggest t t f UM you know on the planet, probably within the next five years. It was second and flows this year and because of the securities lending and actually tracked perfectly, which means it's essentially free exposure to the whole U s enchilada. It's a beautiful thing,

a modern miracle of science in a way. UM stick with TALT here because that had a down years did not do well. Right, So so you're saying that that despite going down and you know, apprehensions about what the stock market might do in two this is this will be the safe the thing that everybody. So like in two THO the market was down thirty five, TEALT was up thirty UM and then in UH and then again just last Thanksgiving or you know, like a month ago,

UM the market fell I think four percent. TALT was up four percent. It doesn't always perfectly go up the same the market goes down, but it's just proven to be the best offsetter. And it's not like a derivative where like a put option or the VIX where you're constantly your insurance is corroding. This is literally just a bunch of bonds it's a long only thing, and I like the fact there's nothing weird going on. You just own a basket of bonds. So that's why I call

it all natural. So yeah, I agree with that. As you mentioned, gold is more of a diversifier. It does its own thing. It never does what people expected to Bitcoin is more of a risk acid. At this point, I wouldn't argue that it's a hedge against pretty much anything. Maybe against currency debasement, but that's about it. T LT really is does act as an equity market hedge, and in times of stress it's it's boring but effective. Um okay. So another one is usm V. This is the popular.

Actually Tom chose this one last year. I'm sure I'm choosing it this year. Minimum altility is such a great easy thing to sell for an advisor to their older investors. It's like, hey, it's like diet coke. You get most of the market, a little less volatility, it's a smoother ride, right, less calories. It had a rough two years, especially since Mark when the FED stepped in and saw a lot of outflows. Again, back to that second fight of the apple, Will low Vall and Menvall get a second bite at

the apple. Let's say, because it's had a good December. If it keeps it going well, people come back in. And this is a great case study for that premise of how many bites of the apple do you get? More and more? I'm thinking you get one. You have your shiny object moment. People come in and then if you really let them down too much and they leave, I don't they tend not to come back even when you start doing well. And that's we'll see maybe this

will overcome that. Um. And then my last one is a v d V which is the Avantis International Value e T F. Avantis is an up and coming issue. They do like smart Beta and it's cheap, so they're in the dirt cheap lane and they give you a little extra you know, smart Beta in there. Uh, they throw it in there, so it's cheap. Smart Beta International Small Cat Value is probably the most bargain basement bargain bin thing you can find on on the earth. Right.

The pe of this thing I think is ten. Okay, Like if anything were to lead the charge of a regime change of value, I would look for this. This isn't just small cat value, it's international small Cat value. So it's sort of the canary in the coal mine. But if it pops, this thing should pop a lot. So I'm watching it to see if we will get some people looking at the beat up stuff. Since the SNP had such a good run, maybe values time is

is finally arrived. Okay, So GLT USB, M v T I A V d V those are your boring picks. Let's get to the spicy stuff. Sure so C t RU which is the it's see through, it's the trans arc transparency. So one of my big problems with E S G is that it's trying to replace something like V T I and who in the hell wants to give up their cheap beata and and put in something that could underperform that costs more. It's just that's just

a tough sell. But Arc sells hot sauce, and now what they're doing is they're making E SG hot sauce. It's largely the G but it's looking at the most transparent companies and it's picking one and equal waiting them. Equal waiting is like a legal performance enhancing drug itself, so you're basically jacking up the ball on purpose. So this could be used as a way to compliment v T. I. I'm very bullish on things complementing, not competing with Vanguard, and this would be an e s G way to

do it. It will need the performance, but I'm watching it. Okay, that's pretty good hot sauce. Another one is c O p X, which is the Global X Copper Miners. This is a fascinating story. This thing lived in oblivion for like eleven years. It had a hundred million dollars, Like no one gave a crap about this thing. All of a sudden inflation hit where he's hit, and copper is something you buy if you're worried about inflation. It's a good it's a good hedge. And this thing now has

well over a billion dollars. It's it's amazing. It hung on normally need TF throws in the towel after four or five years, little loone ten. So it's I like

the fact that it's on its way up. Um. The other thing is not only is copper and inflation hedge, but it's like a risk on inflation hedge, and the copper is also going to be used in a lot of renewables and the sort of move to get to net zero copper is a big So there's a couple things kind of all coming together for for this play, I think, And luckily global x did not liquidated, and so it's gonna be interesting to see it's one point seven billion dollars and it was like two million like

sixteen months ago. So so the other thing that copy miners are good for is basically economic economic recovery or activity. So this thing was a reopening trade as well, so it's hit a whole bunch of things that reopening, inflation, all the things I mentioned. So it's been like in the crosshairs of a bunch of bunch of news stories

over the last few months or years. Even at this point, Joel, it's stars have aligned, and that's these things with these niche products, they may have to wait ten years for that right moment, and and this thing it seems to have come because people do feel like things are okay there, the Feds got their back, they're feeling like risk is on,

but they're definitely worried about inflation. So that's a really that is the stars aligning for something like a copper miners etf Anyway, so we'll see you're strong, strong, thank you since you're naturally biased against me. The fact that you said strong, I'm gonna actually times that by two and be like you must be really bowled over. Okay, Um. Next next is bits, So bits is like you know,

bid oh, James said. The problem is the roll cost Bits basically is half bitcoin miners like blockchain stocks, and half bitcoin futures. But it's also the futures in the middle of the curve, and there's less roll costs. So I did the calculation here, and you're only gonna look at two or three percent roll costs a year probably, and you get more kicked than you if you buy a blockchain bitcoin mining EMTF. So it's kind of trying

to get the best too, best of both worlds. Because I don't think advisors are gonna be comfortable with a fift annual role costs. I just think it's too much, and there's a big variable it could be more this. I think they're like, well, look, I know the role costs won't be that much. It's middle of the curve, it's only half the fund. I think this is a safer bet for advisor as well. Gensler does nothing in order in you know why the spot et F just

sits on ice. We'll see. I don't know, but I do see this as being something that could appeal long term, and I like the innovation from a global x on that one. Yeah, I would chime in and just say that the blockchain and crypto thematic et F world is now over. It's over two billion dollars despite having a decent sized draw down over the last month, just because bitcoin has also fallen. But there's fourteen e t s already in their fifteen actually the ones launching very soon.

So um, it's very competitive market to be in. But it's I agree with Eric, It's it's kind of hitting all these different areas that advisors might like, especially for advisors who don't like the roll costs of bidd oh and do want exposure to bitcoin, and there's no spot Bitcoin ETF g BTC trades at a discount. This kind of fits a lot of different avenues that advisors want exposure to stuff. It's it's in a sweet spot. Interesting. That said, it's it's almost two months old and only

eight millions, so it's I've seen this before. Sometimes an ETF can appeal to the critics like me, and yet nobody cares like the ex trackers all China E t F. All the critics were like, oh, this is the greatest, and yet nobody bought it. It's sort it's like one of those movies that like, uh, like Tree of Life with Sean Penn, where like it's like a it's like

it's like a rotten tomatoes like percent and audiences. Okay, it's very I liked it, but I'm weird, but it's not a It's not like a movie that like it's going to sweep the country. Anyway, all right, your final final pick, Oh, my final one is f O v L, but I'm gonna actually put a couple fo f o v L, Deep and Q vale. These are all the deep value. These things by the most beat up US value stocks, and they're at the top of our value factor intensity score. So if and when value comes back again,

these things should lead the way. And it was interesting we we made this intensity score and in Q one it perfectly matched their returns. And I think these days when people have a portfolio, if they have a V T I or a VO or an I VV in the center, like cheap beta, there would be no reason to buy a water down value et F. It would make no sense because you you own a lot of those stocks in your SMP or your total market. But what would make sense is a deep value again to

complement the vanguards. So in other words, one of these deep value wepps could be the future ARC. It could it's believe it or not. A deep value could be a shiny object for for three or four years. Remember small cat value lead the way in the in the two thousand's and the SMP was flat. So I keep This is the second year in a row've been watching deep value, and I have two on my list obviously, But at some point, um, I think these things are going to be hit the hit the gold mine, Tom,

what do you think? No, I really like it, and I agree with the ext point And if you have to, if you're saying just how the value rotations have been lately, they've been really aggressive coming back, so I think it makes sense to go really really concentrated. It's only got something like fourty holdings. Um, so I'm a fan of the more concentrated strategies, so I think this one could do well. Value comes back very aggressively. I like, I'm

gonna be watching it too. I like it an international value. It you have to be watching it at this point. I mean it's it feels my entire professional career value has been the garbage. So uh, you don't even know what it's like. Yeah, I don't. I really don't. Only from I doesn't even seem like it can happen. Yeah, I've heard tell. I've heard tell. Long ago, small cat value wasn't the worst trade of in the land far away.

While it seems impossible, let me drop this number. So in in the two thousands, I j s which is small cat value was up in the decade, the SNP was down eight percent. For James, that has to seem like some kind of a fairy tale, like like like like magic, like how could that possibly have happened? But it did and it will happen again at some point anyway, So just to tell you, dreams do come true for value once in a while. James, Tom Rebecca, thanks so

much for joining us on Trilliance. Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can find it on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple podcast, Spotify, and wherever else you like to listen. We'd love to hear from you. We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Lebershow, He's at Eric fulture Nous. This episode of Trillions was produced by Magneth Hendrickson. Francesca Levy is the head of Bloomberg podcast by the Tera to Death