15  ETFs to Watch in '24 - podcast episode cover

15  ETFs to Watch in '24

Jan 04, 202441 min
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Episode description

Exchange-traded funds tracking areas that lagged megacap US stocks—such as small caps, international, value and cannabis—are among the 24 ETFs that Bloomberg Intelligence says represent themes that could drive the market in 2024. Other big themes include the mini-boom in active and the race for the first spot Bitcoin ETF. 

On this episode, Eric and Joel take a tour of BI’s list of ETFs to watch for the year ahead. They’re joined by BI’s James Seyffart and Athanasios Psarofagis to go through the 15 US ETFs on the list.  

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome our chillins.

Speaker 2

I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchernas.

Speaker 1

It's a new year.

Speaker 3

Eric, There's going to be some things that will happen this year, no doubt, And I'm wondering what ETFs we should share with our listeners to help them get ahead in the year head.

Speaker 4

Yeah, this has become an annual tradition. We at Bloomberg Intelligence are tasked with writing outlooks, just like all of our Stock and Bond colleagues, but we also in addition to that do a listical people like listicles Joel.

Speaker 3

They do you know this numbers seeking to go to all together.

Speaker 4

So we thought we would do this is about five years ago. I think we started in what eighteen or nineteen. We did nineteen ETFs for twenty nineteen, we did twenty ets for twenty twenty, and today we're going to unveil twenty four ETFs for twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

See how that works go by the year.

Speaker 1

Yeah, do we actually have twenty four?

Speaker 4

So in our big note we have twenty four because we have Rebecca and Henry contributing from Europe and Asia. But today we're just gonna give you the US version so it's fifteen of the twenty four.

Speaker 3

Twenty four minus nine for the year ahead, So fifteen ETFs to know.

Speaker 4

About the US ones, which I think our audience is probably more interested in anyway. So plus some of these are gonna cause a little debate. We just won't have time to get through twenty four.

Speaker 3

So joining us James Seifert and Athanasius, Sarah Vegas with ETF analysts with OBERG intelligence, this time on trillions ETFs for the year ahead. Okay, Eric, you're gonna kick it off. You have a disclaimer, and then you're gonna give us the first ETF to watch.

Speaker 4

Yeah, so just real quick, you know, these these are not our picks for what will go up or down.

Speaker 2

We don't know.

Speaker 1

We don't make calls.

Speaker 4

We don't make calls we're not allowed to. And frankly, I think most people in the team admit none of us know the future. In fact, nobody knows the future. If we're we're gonna be really honest, but these are ETFs that catch our attention, that we're thinking about, that have tapped into some trend or some rarity that just you know, gets us as if we're ETF scientists This is something we obsess over a little.

Speaker 1

Bit ETFs to watch, that's what.

Speaker 2

That's right to watch.

Speaker 4

Yeah, okay, My first one is the PACER US Small Cap Cash Cows one hundred ETF.

Speaker 1

What's that ticker, CALF.

Speaker 4

So this is the baby brother of cows, which is the large cap cash cow ETF. This ETF made what we do is called an outliers list we do every month which shows ETFs that took in way more that month and flows than their average, their twelve month average. So if it's more than two standard deviations above it, we note it because hey, this is needs something that's happening. Something's happening. CALF has made the list three times this year.

Speaker 1

Huh.

Speaker 4

It is really breaking out. If you look at the flow chart, it looks a lot like ARC back in twenty twenty when it was just coming to be. It's a probably the best kind of flow chart you can have. It shows totally organic growth, total grassroots interest, a pure phenomenon, and I would call PACER indy, So I call this the indie feel good hit of the year. And what this does is it looks for cash flow yield in small caps. Now, as you know large caps crushed this

past year. Nobody cares about small caps or anything else other than like the Super seven. So this ETF basically double the performance of the Russell two thousand, which is this benchmark for small caps. So, in other words, it picked small caps from within this universe and doubled it.

Speaker 2

That is so hard to do.

Speaker 4

If an active manager did, it would be like praising them all day. Not only that, this beat the S and P. So to think about it, a small cap ETF that's picking certain stocks beat the S and P. Shocker, right, That's why the flows are coming in. People are like, holy moly, this thing has something special going on. Part of it is in small caps there's a lot of junk, but looking at cash flow yield is actually a pretty brilliant way to pick out the better quality type of

small caps. So it's something got a quality tilt. But listen to these flow numbers. By the way, it's taken in cash flows for forty four months straight. It's taken in flows every week this year but one, and it's on a one hundred day inflow streak. These are Vanguard numbers only Vanguard, and maybe Schwab can can lay numbers down like this and if you look at the holders, it's a lot of the big wirehouses Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo. It's so hard to get into those places. So this

ETF defy the odds. Can it keep it going? You know if small caps come back, like some analysts are saying, because large caps had their year, this thing could have a future.

Speaker 2

It could keep actually going.

Speaker 4

So and it could pass Cows, which is its big brother, which is rare.

Speaker 5

I think that's a great pick. I love what we said. You know, small caps didn't have a great year, so so to beat not having like some of that, you know, large cap exposure one is really like a pretty incredible feat.

Speaker 1

James, you get the mic. What's your number two?

Speaker 6

Yeah?

Speaker 7

So mine is going to be bid Oh the pro shares Bitcoin Future Strategy ETF. I talk about bitcoin every year. I feel like the last I think the last two years I had GBTC on there.

Speaker 6

But it's finally here.

Speaker 7

We're probably going to get a spot bitcoin ETF in early January, as Eric and I predicted a few months back. So but the question like, what's going to happen to biddo? This thing is well over a billion dollars, has a couple of billion dollars in assets. Uh, it's done very well as bitcoin has risen, but there's some concerns, Like most people are if they want exposure to Bitcoin, they're going to much prefer a SPOT allocation something like GPTC or these other ets that are going to come to market.

Speaker 6

So the question is what's going to happen to biddo.

Speaker 7

I think eventually it will go to the wayside, but likely at least initially it's going to be stick around. But the problem is Biddo since the beginning of the year has underperformed Spot by over fourteen percent because of

the role cost. So essentially, when you have a futures etf and you have to you have to maintain exposure to the underlying asset, in this case bitcoin, it's basically selling a futures contract for one month and buying the next month, and if that next month is more expensive, you're losing money every time.

Speaker 6

And as big coin goes on a bull run like.

Speaker 7

It has the last couple months, that that cost goes up for every month because basically the curve goes into canentango without getting two into the weeds. But this means that Biddo like for a long term allocation, isn't that great of a strategy? Essentially, not great of as great of a tool, because basically that fourteen percent is this is your cost for owning this ETF as compared to owning the underlying assets.

Speaker 6

So it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Speaker 7

I think this thing will be used heavily by the market makers, at least initially when we get those Spot ETFs, because they can use them to hedge positions while they're creating markets in other areas. But it will be fascinating to see, like what happens with the flows. Is money gonna pour out of Biddo and into these Spot products? Who knows, but it'll be interesting to watch.

Speaker 4

Yeah, And it's ironic that Biddo's getting so much of the attention in the sort of buy the rumor action ahead of the Spot approvals. But when Spot gets approved, Biddo is gonna get ignored, not totally ignored, but people are gonna migrate because any ETF that uses futures, and if there's one that does it physical, people like it physical.

Speaker 3

So if that's a billion dollars, then we're on here next year where do you guys think that's.

Speaker 4

At I think biddoh, I mean I think bitcoin. Might you know, after this big run up, maybe let's let's call bitcoin flat. Okay, I would say loses thirty percent of its asset seven hundred million, but then two years were at five hundred million.

Speaker 2

I think it's down to under one hundred million in five.

Speaker 3

Great strategy before the spot vehicle finally got approve.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Proshure has made a nice little coin on this thing, and it served the purpose in the market. But yeah, advisors, if generally speaking, if you put derivatives I mean futures in an ETF, they're not going to buy it. The gold futures ETF that used to exist closed, So you know that tells you all you need to know everybody?

Speaker 1

What once a physical Athanasios? What's your third?

Speaker 5

So this one is MDiv, which is the first trust multi asset income ETF. The reason I picked this one is like income was a really high trade this year, right, So like JETPY, everyone's just looking at, well, which ETFs payout the most income, the highest yield. So for if we diversify stocks, we diversify bonds, why not diversify your income sources. And this is why I like it, because it holds all different income sources, holds your hild bonds, reads, preferreds,

dividend stocks MLPs. So the risk was sometimes just being so attached to one is obviously you're you're you're depending on that one income source. So I like this approach of diversifying. It has a six percent yield. Jetpy's like eight point six and it's at the same place where jetpy is this year, and jetpy was probably like the

hottest trade this year. It's a little bit expensive. It's a first trust product, you know, them being cheap is not really their mL but it's about sixty five basis points, still pretty small ETF, but I like the notion of diversifying your different sources of income.

Speaker 1

That one is a little bit more boring than the first two.

Speaker 8

What was it taking MDV.

Speaker 6

Right?

Speaker 1

Eric here for it?

Speaker 2

I don't know that.

Speaker 1

So let's see what your next round is.

Speaker 2

Back. I gotta go to the espresso machine.

Speaker 1

With cash.

Speaker 8

Companies that have cash, a lot of cash on hand.

Speaker 4

All right, you know what, I was gonna save this one for a late I gotta bring this now. Okay, I'm gonna go with the global x MSCI Argentina.

Speaker 1

ETF ooh bringing some heat.

Speaker 4

Yeah, so they just selected this guy who runs around with a chainsaw and he calls himself an anarcho capitalist, and it's fascinating every time one of these emerging market countries goes from like socialism and then swing so far the other way to like capitalism. The ETFs love it. This thing is up twenty two percent in a month since this guy got elected, the volumes up a lot, and the emerging markets as a whole is flat. So clearly people like this now. I always find it fascinating.

Can he pull it off? So there's this excitement that, oh it's a more business friendly leader.

Speaker 1

By the way, his name is Javier Melat, Yes.

Speaker 4

And he's a character and he's got a lot of attention. But it's all words right.

Speaker 1

Now, can he?

Speaker 3

And he was elected by saying some stuff and is immediately like pivoted in office.

Speaker 2

This is the thing he what he's saying. You know, I get it.

Speaker 4

It's a great message, I guess if well, it could be a good message if you live there. But words to action are different. But we'll see if this works. All I know is that when there's any hint of a pro business leader getting elected in one of these single country Emerging market ETFs, the ETF goes wild for a while and we'll see if this. You know, India happened with Moti back when he was there Brazil and

so here we're now in Argentina. So I like to watch these because I always call single country ETFs or sort of like the sports book of geopolitics. When you see that, you know, people use him to like bet on that.

Speaker 2

So so I'm watching.

Speaker 4

I'll be watching this next year. Can it maintain this sort of excitement or will reality set it?

Speaker 1

And what was that ticket for this ar GT? So easy to remember it? All right, James, we're starting round two, let's go.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Speaker 7

So I'm gonna go with something that is gonna upset Eric a little bit here. I actually did this one a few years back, but I but I have to bring it back. I'm gonna do the X trackers S and P five hundred ESG ETF E S G E t F s NPE. So this whole thing that the strategy is basically don't rock the boat. So its overall goals are to basically give you a very similar risk return profile the S and P five hundred, but also avoid companies that are doing basically things that are against

ESG practices. So basically what it does is it decides what ESG factors are most critical to different sectors and then kicks out the worst performers in each sector by whatever those metrics are. So it's gonna be different metrics for oil and gas companies versus tech companies. Right So, right now it has three hundred and twenty two stocks. The reason I'm covering is because one, I've believed for a long time that these I'm not a huge fan of these esgetfs that are picking bottom up based on

ESG fundamental criteria. I think you miss out on a lot of home runs if you do it that way. If you're just picking solely because of some ESG metrics, it makes sense to use ESG as an overall investment decision in my view. But I'm just not a fan of the bottoms up picking solely based on the ESG characteristics.

And what has this led to? So if you look at the index, it's beating the S and P five hundred by over thirty five percent since the index was created and back tested in two thousand five, back tested through two thousand and five, and I know what Eric is going to say and what anyone's saying. Well, tell me how it's done since it launched. So since it launched in twenty nineteen, it's beating SPY by eleven percent. It charges a ten basis point fee. It's a great

story for advisors. It's not huge tracking error to the underlying asset, which a lot of advisors don't want to talk about, and that ten percent fee is pretty cheap.

Speaker 6

So, like I said, I don't like.

Speaker 7

I'm not a huge fan of these ESG ETFs that exclude high returners. A lot of them suffered heavily because they didn't have exposure to oil and gas. They as they went on a run the last couple of years.

Speaker 6

So yeah, I'm.

Speaker 7

Picking SMPE just because it's been performing exceptionally well and it's one of the rare ESG cases that's doing well this year.

Speaker 6

It's almost a billion dollar fund.

Speaker 2

Yeah, No, you're right.

Speaker 4

The performance has been good and I have to give that up. And it's a good ATF. You know the problem is if if you're going in and you're you want quote ESG, you look at the holdings here. You've got Amazon potentially like worker issues. You've got Tesla that's got a whole host of issues. You've got Chevron all the top twenty. So I mean, what are we really doing here, James? Why not just buy the stupid s and P five hundred? Like, what what are we really doing here?

Speaker 6

How changed four hundred? It's not changing the world.

Speaker 7

I don't agree with any of those practice those ETFs that are bottoms up eat.

Speaker 4

In other words, you you say by this because you might it's an outperforming potential, you could care less.

Speaker 7

And it's no because it's kicking out the absolute worst performers from each sector. So like there are people, there are firms in the sectors of communications or technology or consumer discretionary that have way worse ESG scores than the ones you named.

Speaker 3

So it's like happening like a filtering mechanism that's actually attempting to like isolate.

Speaker 4

Pepsi and Cola perform the top twenty five. McDonald's doesn't him too much. This is he's just giving you things to watch. I know, I know, yeah, this this is an actual trying to get horse institution.

Speaker 2

After MD if we got to get get some action here.

Speaker 3

Well, on that note, as we're on number six terrified, Now are you going to follow Terrified?

Speaker 8

Okay?

Speaker 5

I like this ticker. It's a new ETF. It's desk right, so it's the van neck.

Speaker 1

Office stronger start.

Speaker 5

Okay, what's coming off better on this one? It's the van office and commercial re ETF?

Speaker 1

Right?

Speaker 5

So what a of a contrarian play because it's you know, playing on commercial real estate. But it's a very unique ETF. There's really nothing else like it out there because it's focusing mostly just on the commercial rates in office rates.

Speaker 8

You know, you can get.

Speaker 5

This exposure and some of the bigger ETFs, but it won't be as pure as this one. And while the ETF is new, if you look at the index of it, it's below where it was even during COVID, and if you remember, like offices were like done during COVID, So it's like, how is this still at that level? I think if with a change in rates maybe next year.

I think it's something to watch. It's very unique, it's small, there's really no other ETF like it, So I like this one as a contrarian play for next year, especially with a push with firms going back to the office more right, we're seeing you know, we're seeing it everywhere. I think this one could be something to watch for next year.

Speaker 1

I like that that's a little bit of a sleeper. Yeah.

Speaker 2

I mean it's very small.

Speaker 4

It just came out as one million, so but yeah, this could be a proxy for what you're talking about.

Speaker 8

Yeah.

Speaker 5

We always sort of debate on the team, like getting back to the office or whatnot. And I think you're right, that's a good thing.

Speaker 4

Ernado is the top holding and a lot of people have used that as a proxy for Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah, okay, beginning of round three.

Speaker 7

Eric, Hey wait wait, I want to add something real quick. Okay, good heah, Yeah, yeah, you talked about Vernado. I also agree, like I love this pick from Athan because commercial real estate has been something that everyone's talking about. I mean your Sister or Sibling podcast at odd Lots talks about this constantly. So if people are looking for an ETF to play this, this looks like a good way to do it.

Speaker 6

And you mentioned Vernado.

Speaker 7

Fun fact, we're sitting in a Vernado owned building technically speaking, so they're definitely estate.

Speaker 2

You're in Jersey in your house.

Speaker 1

I don't know.

Speaker 4

Maybe Vernardo built your house. By the way, the second company is called kill Roy. Can anybody name the eighty song that has the lyric Kilroy?

Speaker 1

Oh Man?

Speaker 2

Probably Magnus is my only hope. Yeah, producer Magnus from the booth kill Roy?

Speaker 1

What song? Dix?

Speaker 2

Mister Roboto?

Speaker 1

Very good?

Speaker 2

Anyway?

Speaker 1

All right, Round three, Eric.

Speaker 2

I love that song when I was a kid.

Speaker 3

Okay, Round three, old, Round three, Eric, You got the seventh ETF.

Speaker 4

To watch, yep, and I think I'll do my most boring one just because those last two were really good. Okay, fbn D, this is the fidelity.

Speaker 1

You like how he's trying to sneak that in.

Speaker 8

Okay, you can't tell me this is more This is more exciting than this.

Speaker 3

I'm like me, Bond, he is going to try and sneak it past us.

Speaker 8

You're one step.

Speaker 4

I'm like one of those old legacy bands that does shows. Still, you do a couple hits early, your new stuff in the middle, and you close with the headliners. Okay, so this is the new stuff boring? Okay, all right. Fbn D has six point five billion dollars. This is a fidelity bond ETF. This has also made the outliers list multiple months and I'm looking at this and it's fascinating. This is Fidelity at thirty six basis points for an active bond and it outperforms the AG so it's doing

a job. It's cheap, it's under the forty basis point mark, and I think this is representative to me of what the company to watch next year, which is Fidelity. Fidelity has done a couple of things. They've converted some ETFs mutual funds into ETFs. They are gearing up, I think for what is going to be a massive year. I think they've finally sold upper management that ETFs are the future, and the guy working inside there, I think he's going

to be able to do some big moves. I see Fidelity cracking the top ten in terms of issuer size, and I see them doing all kinds of thing conversions. They filed for an ETF share class of their mutual funds, so if they get all this going, look out you know, because Fidelity is a behemoth. So one of our big themes in the outlook is the many roads to ETF. So Fidelity is a firm that's going to take every road. It'll be busy on each road, and each road will

have certain reasons. You don't use conversions all the time or share classes. But Fidelity is going to be very specific in how it approaches ets. But essentially it's going to slowly start to move all of its existing clients over from the mutual fund format to the ETF format. And FBND at six point five billion is crazy because remember bond the Pimpco bill gross fund, that was the biggest bond ETF, biggest active bond ETF for a long time.

This is double that size. So that's how fast they you know, we have a phrase they grow up so fast. This is a great example of that.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'm curious when they discover how they will do active ETFs. Fidelity obviously being famous for its active management history.

Speaker 4

That's the thing again, if you can be active, have a good name, and be below forty BIPs, that's a good place to be. It's when if this came over at ninety I would not be as optimistic, but it's cheap.

It's made the decision to that. And we had our ETFs in Depth event in December and Brian Lake of JP Morgan I asked them what they're most excited about, and he said active fixed income is probably the biggest whitespace still, he said, there's just because that's a space where mutual funds have way more market share versus CTFs than in the equity side. So there's early early innings in the active bond area.

Speaker 3

That was less boring than I thought. James, how are you going to follow that with your.

Speaker 7

Eighth Yeah, so I'm gonna go with something that's definitely more exciting than fidelity bond fund.

Speaker 6

But I agree.

Speaker 7

I do agree with Eric's pick, like the the actively managed fixed income ETF space is going to be very interesting just overall because I think that's the way you're going to suck assets for the mutual it. We'll come back to that, said, my pick is the Round Hill Cannabis ETF with ticker weed w E D one.

Speaker 6

I just I love the ticker. You can't not love.

Speaker 7

The ticker is just so perfect for what it's doing. This is relatively new, right. We've had marijuana slash cannabis ETFs for quite a while now, but for the most part they weren't offering the purest form of exposure until basically mjus from Advisor shares came out with this idea basically offering exposure to what is known as multi state operators.

They're marijuana compes that operate across state lines, so they're in this legal gray zone basically that doesn't allow with ETF to invest in them.

Speaker 6

And what Advisors Shares pioneered was using.

Speaker 7

Swaps with banks to get those exposures because technically not holding in the lying assets, it's look.

Speaker 6

It's just a gray area.

Speaker 7

But what we does is it takes it a step further. Those other ETFs still hold a bunch of other stocks that weren't strictly MSOs. They were investing in Canadian firms and other international firms. There's a lot of different ways to do this, but MSO is I mean, weed is just holding strictly MSOs five stocks.

Speaker 6

That's it.

Speaker 7

So it's a super concentrated portfolio. And look, these things have done horribly over the last couple of years. It's continually making lower and lower highs uh and then sinking again. So I love, I know Eric likes this too, to look at at ETFs that have been just like pushed down into the into the bunker here and see what's gonna happen.

Speaker 6

But this obviously would be a play in.

Speaker 7

This would obviously be a play on like some sort of federal legalization or further states legalizing marijuana going forward. This is this is gonna be a key way to do that, and it's super concentrated portfolio a portfolio.

Speaker 6

And the way it gets around it is we've talked about the single stock ETFs on here.

Speaker 7

They kind of made this loophole by using those swaps and diversifying who who the swap counterparties are to meet the diversification requirements. But essentially I need to know is that this is really on the cutting edge of like what ETFs can do, and they're offering super concentrated exposure to those multi multi state operator marijuana firms.

Speaker 3

You have snuck in like so much little like jargon in there like concentrates and highs and yeah you weren't even trying and yet you like totally you know did the cannabis industry is solid there can I.

Speaker 4

Ask you how many times a week do you smell marijuana.

Speaker 1

In New York City all the time? Now like once a day? Yeah, But I mean like it, so you know.

Speaker 2

I'm fine with it. I'm fine with it.

Speaker 4

But I'm telling you five six years ago, it was once a week. Now it's every day. I smell more than cigarettes.

Speaker 1

Yeah, this is the future.

Speaker 3

Okay, uh Athanasios, you can follow that RSP. This is number nine, last one for round three RSPT.

Speaker 5

Which is equal Weight, S and P five hundred Tech and this is the Mag seven right all this year. But remember, like the four hundred or so other companies like There's, they're still out there, right, They're still doing stuff. I I think Weight could have a year next year. It's just a way to detox off the Mag seven. You don't want to fully give off the exposure. But I think this year showed that, you know, sometimes you know, it's a problem with a few stocks just lead everything else.

I think there could be a little bit of a reversal. So I like equal Weight, I'm not I'm not diversify divers five and still stay in tech. So you're not fully getting off of it, you're just sort of rejiggering it.

Speaker 2

RSPT is like the methadone of the ques.

Speaker 1

Yeah, exactly, gotcha.

Speaker 8

I don't know if I didn't know how far you want to be said detox, But.

Speaker 2

No, I get it.

Speaker 4

You're still getting something, so you're not com splitly going cold turkeys.

Speaker 2

I get it.

Speaker 8

We had a great fifty percent the cues. You know, whoever said that this year.

Speaker 5

Is lying to you. No one had that on, no one that share. So we've had a good I think, just you know, appreciate it and nothing equal ways.

Speaker 3

Round three unexpectedly became a recreational drug reference colore. Let's see what round four does. Eric kick us off?

Speaker 4

All right, I will stick with the cues because this one's related. Which this one is called jep Q, so this is the little brother of Jepy and jepy.

Speaker 1

Mine. Remind us what JEPU is. Yeah.

Speaker 4

JEFTP is the Equity Premium Income fund that JP Morgan put out that became the biggest active ETF hit ever, Bigger than ARC, bigger than Pimpco. It's got thirty billion dollars and it broke just breaking all the records. It's a covered call strategy, so it invests in the SMP, although it does some fundamental picking, but it's largely a low vall version of the S and P. And then it writes call options a little bit out of the money.

So if you give up your upside because the if the SMP goes up a lot, you have to those options will get called and you won't get that money, but you get premium from selling the options. So it has a big yield and the yield connect as a buffer on the downside. So we sometimes call this boomer candy. Boomers love the protection aspect of some of this because they want to be involved in the markets. They're willing to give a lot of upside. So jepy has done

a great job of bringing that. But JEPQ to me is like JETPY, but with a little more juice, so like it's the cues and it's covered call. So for example, you're to date this thing return thirty five percent, you still got ten eleven percent yield, and the sharp ratio was two point five, which is pretty high if you compare that to JETPI in terms of those numbers, JETP was only up nine percent nine percent yield and the

sharp ratio is point five. So JEPQ has kind of come along as the little brother and beat JETPY on every single metric, and so it's just catching up and flows too. Now It'll be interesting because if you're like Ethan and you think that the cues might be a little out of gas. That yield gives you a little buffer, so jep Q I think also acts as a methadonish way to play the cues.

Speaker 5

I think that's a good pick. I think this year when that was a tough trade, but I think looking at it for next year, it could make sense.

Speaker 4

The way you're talking, it's like you, we haven't had reviews yet.

Speaker 2

Come give me, I'm ready turn it up. Yeah, come on, man, come at me.

Speaker 8

I think it's I think it's a good pick.

Speaker 3

Okay, thanks, Okay, nothing, James, let's hear your number eleven.

Speaker 7

So so this was this I guess, uh, this wasn't going to be the one I was going to go with. So I'm going out of order here. But it's directly in line. I guess great minds think alike. Right. I agree with everything that Ethan and Eric said, but I think I like a different ETF to look at going forward.

Speaker 6

So one is just uh, it's the arrow reverse cap weighted ETF. So it's similar the way.

Speaker 7

The one that gets the most play is more than with Athen's RSPT, but just regular RSP. It's taken in a lot of money early this year and flows are pouring in again late this year. And basically all that one does is it equal weights the S and P five hundred, whereas YPS, the one i'm picking, actually reverse cap weights it. So basically the smallest ones in the S and P five hundred you get the highest weight in YSP. And that's because of all the stuff that

they all both just talked about. With the magnificent seven, super seven, whatever you want to talk about it, they're like making up seventy five percent of.

Speaker 6

The return so far in twenty twenty three. But I like YSP to play it.

Speaker 7

Even though it's only a ten million dollar fund, it's getting no interest from anyone, but everyone's pouring into RSP instead. But in my view, I just think it's a more efficient way to kind of make this play. Rather than selling out of your S and P five hundred exposure, you could only sell a small chunk and then buy this thing as a compliment to kind of get that sort of similar equal weighted type exposure. You don't need to sell the whole thing and move into another product.

So I just think it's efficient from that way, And if you really are betting on the smaller cap stocks catching up to the large cap stocks are outperforming the larger names in the in the index or ETF in this case, every time that there's been a run where equal weight outperforms the regular market cap weighted ETFs in this space, YSP has outperformed the equal weighted version. So

it's basically like a leverage version of RSP. I mean, obviously past past performance not indicative future return, but by reverse cap weighting, it ends up being a more leverage probably and equal cap waiting. And I think you can use this to make a more efficient exposure if you want to dial down your Magnificence seven or Super seven exposures.

Speaker 6

But no one seems to care. No one's buying this.

Speaker 1

Thing, Ethnoxius, would you trade your pick for that pick?

Speaker 8

I'd still stick with mind. Oh it's a good pick. But I still like I still like having being still in tech.

Speaker 7

Okay, so I'm not saying to get I'm not saying to get out of tech. You would just take like a chunk of your S and P five hundred exposure and put it in this to kind of lower your exposure to the Magnificent seven. That's all it would do. I would never say, replace your S and P five hundred with this thing. But I think it's a good compliment to h to kind of get the same thing without having to sell anything.

Speaker 8

Yeah, fair, it's a whole positions, just a little bit of methadone.

Speaker 1

He's still he's still not sold. All right.

Speaker 5

This is like the most toxic trade ever. I think that you want to love it. It never works its value right. Every year it's like this is it? Like I've changed, you know, And I've talked to Chris Kaney's our quant strategist Bloomber Intelligence, and there's a lot of stuff that points to value for for next year. And if you're gonna do it, you're gonna have to go full in.

Speaker 1

So it's q VOW.

Speaker 5

It's the alpha architect us Quantitative value ETF, and it's very concentrated. It's got the purest exposure to value. So if it's if you're gonna do it, do with QVO. I think you can have a pretty interesting year next year. I know we've called value in the past before you get these little bouts of outperformance, but I think could this year be different? I don't know, but I think QVOW is something to watch for next year.

Speaker 4

Yeah, this this ETF is in the top five of our factor intensity score for value because it's like hot sauce value. When value comes back, this thing should be at the top of the performers. And I just think it makes sense, you know, because you got a lot of value already in S and P five hundred or your total market. This just gives you a little tilt with only a little dose, so you'll need a little bit of this puppy to give you some real exposure

to value. And there's a junk screen in it, so it's not that hardcore where it buys total junk.

Speaker 6

Yeah, I mean value.

Speaker 7

I feel like every year I've been hearing the value is going to come back, and it has spurts where it comes back, and then as Eric likes to say, the cues and high tech high cap growth just comes and runs it over. So yeah, we'll see what happens. But it's it's certainly been Uh it's been hard to stick with value for a long term, long term play.

Speaker 6

But it's a good pick.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 4

The last year I did ie val I vow's q val but worse because international value. So if you really want to go crazy, eye vow you get the pe on I val and I want.

Speaker 2

To guess it's like seven lower.

Speaker 4

Just for context, the pe on the S and P five hundred is twenty five ish twenty six.

Speaker 2

So what do you think I vow's public? I mean price to earning average is five six six, Okay.

Speaker 4

I mean that is like, yeah, at some point right would you see this chart in the MSCI world, Apple now has a bigger waiting than the UK, bigger than France. Yeah, I mean the Super seven make up more than like the rest of the world combined pretty.

Speaker 1

Much by Super seven.

Speaker 2

You mean the magnet Magnificent seven.

Speaker 4

I like Super seven because alliteration, and Magnificent seven is a movie.

Speaker 7

Maybe it's worth while to say what what the Magnificent seven is. Maybe it's worth while to say what the Magnificent seven is. So just for anyone, Microsoft's actually say, okay, James, magnificence.

Speaker 6

Since we've said it, like.

Speaker 4

Yeah, listen, by the way, let's say let's say let's say they crash and burn next year and there's one of those stock we can throw in. We can call them the Hateful eight.

Speaker 3

James, let's name the Magnificent seven, just so we have it on tape good for.

Speaker 7

Yeah, yeah, so it's it's it's Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet aka Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta aka Facebook the artist formerly known as So those are the sevenies, like we keep talking about as though everyone knows, but just to make sure.

Speaker 3

We kept adding as to Fang and then we were like, wait, we just needed something new in.

Speaker 2

The video and video crash the party in a good way.

Speaker 1

Yeah yeah, uh Tesla too.

Speaker 4

Yeah.

Speaker 3

Final round, Eric, you're gonna kick us off with number thirteen.

Speaker 2

Okay, number thirteen.

Speaker 4

My last pick is Tua, which it's not the quarterback for the Dolphins, although I like him a lot too. It's the simplify short Term Treasury Future Strategy ETF. I picked this for a few reasons. One, you know, the Fed has seemingly said we're, you know, not mission accomplished quite, but they're clearly feeling good. So if they were to start lowering rates next year, clearly you'd want to be

long treasury. So this one is like a leveraged it's actively managed, uses treasury futures and it's got some leverage in it, so if rates fall, this will pop a little bit. And futures are a pain to use. A lot of institutions do this trade. This is a trade that was popular at PIMCO for a while. So I like this for a few reasons. One next year again, if you think rates are gonna fall, this should be in a good position. Number Two, it does a lot of legwork for you. It does something to pain in

the butt. Three you only need a little again, just a little bit to get you where you want to go in terms of playing the rate fall. And then the other reason is this is simplify as a fascinating company. But they came along and they've got a lot of X hedge fund people there. They're the closest thing to

an actual real hedge fund in the ETF world. And this is proven by the fact that they've gotten multiple institutional investors to buy into their funds, like TUA is owned by the Michigan retirees, and then they've gotten General Electrics Pension. I can't, as a guy who wrote a book about institutional usage of ETFs, it is so hard to get an institution to buy into an ETF that isn't just like one of the liquid ones they use quickly for some like you know, short term usage, but

for them to invest in your fund, it's rare. They like to be exclusive, they like to go with the best brains the ETF to them, or like the public pool that all the plubs use, They're like, I don't, I'm better than that. So the fact that institutions are going in here is a I think tells you how serious people take simplify and the people who work there. And I think it's fascinating because these ETFs two is

fifteen basis points. A hedge fune would charge you two to twenty for this potentially, or at least a lot more. So we're talking hedge fund style management for van guardian fees with people who are from the hedge fund world. We're finally seeing that kind of experiment in the alternative space and I'm here for it.

Speaker 1

So what's in the portfolio treasury futures?

Speaker 2

So it's actively trading treasury futures.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 7

I would say that I love this pick because I feel like for years, us and pretty much everyone else is like, this might be the year that like alternative ETFs take up like more space, they compete more with hedge funds. Well, everyone thinks like the alternative ETF space should be larger.

Speaker 6

It just isn't. There's been some like good hits.

Speaker 7

Managed Future Strategies in twenty twenty two did very well, some other things like that, but for the most part, there just isn't a massive demand. But it's growing heavily now and a lot of that is being led by by simplify here.

Speaker 6

So I love this pick.

Speaker 3

Like that, All right, James, what's your last pick going to be?

Speaker 7

Yeah, So I'm kind of breaking the rules here, but I think it's for for for a very good reason.

Speaker 6

Probably the judge of picking and et.

Speaker 7

I'm picking a mutual fund ticker swv xx, which is a mutual fund and not an ETF, so I apologize in advance, but just swab money market fund. This thing is yielding five point two six percent, and I'm probably putting people to sleep right now hearing this. But when I throw these other numbers out there, it'll be interesting

to see if people realize this. This thing charges thirty four basis points, which again not super expensive, but also definitely not cheap like if I don't think a lot of people realize that these money market funds make a lot of money for these companies, even though they were basically money losers, as people were putting money into these things when rates were zero or basically negative. That said,

this thing has taken in. At the end of twenty twenty two, it at one hundred and sixty one billion dollars. Again not nothing, very good. It now has two hundred and fifty eight billion dollars. That thing is taken in ninety seven billion dollars in one year. If we had an ETF that did that, it would have been on the front pages of everything. So this, I think is the most the most successful fund in the US in

twenty twenty three. As far as I can tell, money market funds as a whole are likely to hit could hit a trillion dollars in inflows this year. ETFs have never done that. So I feel like we just need to kind of point out what's happening here. And part of the reason swvxx is at the top of this is for like going back into some wonky things. We always talk about commissions and freeze and everything's free commission now,

but that's not the case anymore. So Schwab bought td Amerri Trade, So anyone who's on Schwab or td Emmer Trade, if you want to buy a money market fund, there's a commission to do it. It costs like it's not cheap. But what they've done if they said, you can buy our ets with no commission and we'll put you in them. So people, it looks like anyone with a tdmmer Trade or Schwab account is looking for somewhere to put this.

This is this is the one they're defaulting to. And this thing again is it's going to take in over one hundred billion dollars.

Speaker 1

In a year.

Speaker 7

So yes, it sounds sleepy, but like it's just mind boggling.

Speaker 2

That is money thinking about it insane.

Speaker 4

I mean, the ETF that's gonna take in the most money this year is vou at about forty billion, and ETFs are on fire and that's one hundred. Yeah, it's it's whacked.

Speaker 1

Uh.

Speaker 3

Eric's gonna have some other comments in your review about bringing a mutual fund to an ETF party, but you know, we'll keep it at that, oh right, number fifteen, Athanasios.

Speaker 5

That also makes MDV look like stewen Man like money market fund. Yeah, true, you know, but it's still a good pick. Okay, last one I always like to that. Yeah, well, people are gonna your listener is gonna get that reference.

Speaker 1

We're gonna go with it.

Speaker 8

You're just doing it.

Speaker 2

It's I like the reference, but I mean that's going way back.

Speaker 3

Yeah, all right, give us the give us the car chase. Always like to come on, bring it home. Pick one that's like synonymous with closures. Last year I used k Pop, which was like closing, you know thematics, we're getting a little out of hand.

Speaker 5

This one's gonna be Crypto. I think a E T H a F, which is the bit wise Ethereum Futures E T F. This has gotta go. I think like it's eighty five basis points. It's got to know it offers nothing different than the other ones. I think it'll go because eventually if ethereum spot is approved, because you have a better product. But I think Crypto has gotten a little chummy and one of them has got it. I can see this closing at some point this year,

So I think that's wonder what. It might not be that one, but I think one of the Ethereum futures ones are going to close.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and there's a couple to do bigcoin plus Ethereum Futures. I'd say, half the category is probably gonna close. I mean even the pro chare is one is only ten million bit wise is less than that. Look, I think what we learned from the Ether Futures ETF's launching is that you know, the mania is over. People aren't gonna buy any single coin you put out there.

Speaker 2

Also Ether, it's it's ether and futures.

Speaker 4

But I don't think this necessarily takes away from a spot Bitcoin ETF. I think that should be a legitimate hit. But this definitely was underwhelming by anybody's standards. Really, these launched and like almost nobody cared.

Speaker 6

You know, we cared because we were covering the launch, but I.

Speaker 7

Think nobody what everybody yeah that said, I'm I'm I agree. I love this pick because I honestly would have picked one of these if Ethan hadn't already called DIBs on it. Because Eric and I mean we we we haven't put officialized out there, but I think it's pretty likely that we see a spot ethery in ETF in twenty twenty four. We have we have a couple of deadlines coming up on May twenty third and twenty four for Ark and

van k bunch of other filers. I think it's likely that we get a spot ethereum ETF, and if we do get that, bit Wise is probably going to be in that race and launching one of these things. And I can't see them keeping the Etheryum futures ETF open, particularly if they don't manage the gun or any assets.

Speaker 6

So I'm with you. I think this is a really good pick for a potential closure next year, and I think multiple, like both of them.

Speaker 7

Has said multiple etherium futures ETFs or crypto Futures gtfs are likely to close too.

Speaker 3

All right, that rounds out fifteen ETFs for twenty twenty four at then aussios James, thanks for doing that.

Speaker 4

Yeah, yeah, thanks for fifteen for twenty four with us.

Speaker 3

There's nine more on the Bloomberg terminal that you can find in.

Speaker 2

The days that peak your interest.

Speaker 8

Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 1

All right, have a great year, everybody.

Speaker 6

Thanks for having me on.

Speaker 3

Guys, thanks for listening to trillions.

Speaker 1

Until next time.

Speaker 3

You can find us on the Bloomberg term Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify.

Speaker 1

Or wherever else you'd like to listen. We'd love to hear from you.

Speaker 3

We're on Twitter I'm at Joel Webbers show.

Speaker 1

He's at Eric Walchunas.

Speaker 3

This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Bye

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