This week, Democratic voters in New York elected Zohran Mamdani to be their candidate for the mayoral election in November. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 33-year old’s popularity with the younger generations helped to catapult to victory. However, his political platform and campaign processes are giving the traditional elites the fits. Rent freezes? Free public transportation. Free childcare? Government-run grocery stores? Higher taxes for corporations and the so-called 1%? A $30/hour minimum wa...
Jun 26, 2025•22 min
This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn’t cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President’s tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the ...
Jun 20, 2025•24 min
Legend has it the Roman Emperor Nero played his fiddle while Rome burned down around him. These days, domestic investors keep throwing money into the financial markets despite troubling headlines both here and abroad. But why is the American investing public apparently ignoring the world around it? Is it a change in risk tolerance? Easier access to retail investment products? Recent past performance? Does the money simply have to go somewhere? Or are we fiddling while the world burns down around...
Jun 12, 2025•24 min
The Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has had caused a lot of wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. How are we going to pay for all of these tax cuts? Where have the tax credits gone? What do you mean the states can’t regulate Artificial Intelligence? However, the hullabaloo misses the point: without a meaningful pickup in economic activity and reduction in Federal expenditures, there is no hope to get the budget deficits under control. Is there anything to be done? Interestingly...
Jun 05, 2025•24 min
This week, the Court of International Trade sort of put the kibosh on the Administration’s blanket, reciprocal tariffs. Also, Elon Musk made his exit from the apparently ineffectual DOGE, but not before taking a few passing shots. Also, while the House passed the President’s “big beautiful bill,” a lot of people are wondering how Washington can possibly pay for it. All told, from the outside looking in, it wasn’t a very good week for the President. So, where does he go from here? In this week’s ...
May 29, 2025•23 min
This week, the stock markets rallied sharply on news the Administration was going to cut the tariff rate with China from 145% to 30%. However, should investors be enthused with constantly shifting economic policies? Particularly those like tariffs, which add costs to both the importer and the consumer? Further, with the economy already cooling slightly, is now the right time to play hard ball with our trading partners? Basically, what is the real cause for celebration? In this week’s Trading Per...
May 14, 2025•21 min
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently announced the U.S. economy shrank during the 1st quarter of 2025. Obviously, that is not good news. However, is it the bad news the headline would imply? Are we standing at the edge of the economic cliff? Or will the UJS economy be able to take a step back of the abyss? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and whether the U.S. is headed for a deep recession. So, is th...
Apr 30, 2025•20 min
After a few days of positive returns, it seems the market panic has subsided. So, is now a good buying opportunity? Is it safe to get back into the investing waters? Or would it be prudent to wait a while? After all, the threat of tariffs are still very real and very possible. The economy appears a little weaker than it was in 2024, consumer confidence has collapsed and corporate America doesn’t have a good idea what the remainder of the year will bring. If that sounds like a good time to invest...
Apr 24, 2025•21 min
One of the Administration’s primary goals with the tariff wars seems to be onshoring production jobs. Intuitively, that makes sense. More jobs are almost always better than fewer. However, are these the types of jobs the American economy actually needs and the American workers actually wants? Further, what is the likelihood companies make drastic shifts in their production facilities, understanding President Trump will be gone in less than 4 years? These are great questions which need real answe...
Apr 17, 2025•24 min
We have all heard the worst-case scenarios, and everyone is hoping for the best-case ones. However, what is the probable case scenario? Oakworth Capital’s Investment Committee discusses the recent market volatility and likely outcomes.
Apr 10, 2025•46 min
Yesterday, the Administration announced widespread tariffs on the remainder of the world. It hit some countries harder than others, with rates which will certainly curtail trade between our country and theirs. Is this really good for overall economic activity? Given the stock markets’ extremely negative reactions, it would seem like it isn’t. So, why did we do it? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discussed the announced tariffs and their potential impact on the ec...
Apr 03, 2025•23 min
If the headlines have seemed somewhat repetitive recently, it is because they have been. Another day, another DOGE headline and another barb traded. The markets continue to be choppy and gold continues to rally. Foreign leaders have to be tired of bristling against comments from Washington. While arguably exciting at first, the news has become boring and predictable in its unpredictably. It has almost been like listening to the same record over and over again. In this week’s Trading Perspectives...
Mar 27, 2025•23 min
The policy making committee of the Federal Reserve met this week and didn’t cut interest rates. That was as expected. But if it was so widely expected, why did anyone care? Does the Fed have access to information the rest of us don’t? Does it have crystal balls which actually work? Are the voting members on the committee that much smarter? Or have we given the Fed magical powers it doesn’t really have? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the most recent Fed m...
Mar 19, 2025•27 min
It had all been going so nicely, had it not? The markets and the economy were better than the experts expected in 2024. Business owner and consumer confidence spiked after the November elections, and the world has been in a flurry of activity since. Unfortunately, people don’t seem to be having as much fun as they were. The markets have been bleeding red ink, and the headlines have been talking about a recession. How did we get here so quickly? And how quickly can we leave? In this week’s Tradin...
Mar 13, 2025•23 min
Investors have been very skittish for the last couple of weeks. The potential for trade wars with the Canadians and Mexicans have people on edge, and for good reason. The economy was slowing enough on its own already. However, are tariffs really the economic death knells people think they are? Will they really cause U.S. consumer prices to go through the roof? Why do this and why do it now? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent concerns over potentia...
Mar 06, 2025•19 min
Recent economic reports and corporate earnings releases suggest the vaunted U.S. consumer might be running out of steam. The official savings rate has plummeted. Consumer confidence gauges are down. Loan delinquencies are up. Mid-tier restaurant closings are becoming commonplace. So, how much longer can the ultra-wealthy continue to spend at its current level to mask these problems? Will a pullback in the stock market close the wallets of the income group currently holding the economy together? ...
Feb 27, 2025•22 min
Over the last 12 months, gold has been one of the best performing asset classes, but why? It is a shiny metal, which doesn’t pay a dividend or interest and doesn’t generate any profits. So, why are investors flocking to it? Further, how much longer will gold, and other precious metals, be, well, golden? The answer might just be basic economics. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent rise in gold prices. While it might be amazing to some, Sam and John ...
Feb 21, 2025•21 min
This week, there were some positive signs the warring parties in Gaza and Ukraine might be willing to sit at the negotiating table to end the recent hostilities. However, given the historical differences between the groups, what is the real likelihood of a lasting peace? Or will whatever happens end up being a short-term bandage for an otherwise longstanding wound? Can the Trump administration really put a permanent end to conflicts which have been for centuries or even millennia? In this week’s...
Feb 13, 2025•22 min
After two consecutive years of surprising economic growth and stock market returns, what can 2025 do for an encore? However, there are some serious questions. Just how strong is the labor market? Will inflation subside enough to give American consumers a break on the necessities? Will all of this debt ultimately cause the economy to crash? Will the new Trump Administration really be able to pull off everything the President has promised? The list of worries is almost endless. In this week’s Trad...
Feb 06, 2025•38 min
This week, a Chinese company named DeepSeek shocked the markets by claiming it had made huge advancements in Artificial Intelligence at a fraction of the cost and effort of the big tech giants in the United States. Is it too good to be true? Further, what would it mean for the average worker if the AI industry were able to expand even more rapidly than currently imagined? Will there be any jobs left? Or will our computers, tablets, smartphones and other devices put us all out of work? In this Tr...
Jan 30, 2025•25 min
The first week of Donald Trump’s second term in office was a whirlwind of activity. What surprised some people was he did a lot of what he said he was going to do, even some of the head-scratching stuff. However, how much was political posturing and how much was actually trying to govern more effectively? Did any of the executive orders make economic or societal sense? How much more can we expect and what will the economic ramifications be? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and Jo...
Jan 23, 2025•27 min
The recent wildfires in Los Angeles have been horrific to witness and even more so to live through. But could they have been avoided? If not avoided, could an effective governmental response mitigated the damage to the error? Was it climate change or government inefficiency which exacerbated an already bad situation? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the wildfires in California and debate whether it had to ...
Jan 16, 2025•23 min
The current transition of power from the Biden Administration to Trump Part 2 has been one for the books. The current president has been issuing pardons and making executive orders like has not been seen in recent memory. For his part, the new president has been acting like he is already in office and appears willing to alienate a good chunk of the world in the process. Are these good things? Are they the new normal? What do they mean for the smooth transition of power in the future? In this wee...
Jan 09, 2025•29 min
As we start 2025, a lot of people want to know what the upcoming year holds for them, the economy and the investment markets. So, what does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions, but what is the truth? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris go through the second half of Oakworth’s In...
Jan 02, 2025•27 min
After another strong, if confusing, year in 2024, what can the US economy and financial markets do for an encore? What does the crystal ball hold in store for the upcoming year? Will stocks continue to climb? Will the economy continue to add jobs? Will the Republicans be able to govern effectively? There are a lot of questions and even more opinions. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement, John Norris and special guest Ryan Bernal go through half of Oakworth’s Investment Committee’s pr...
Dec 26, 2024•23 min
This year has been another wild one in the markets, economy, society and geopolitics. But what have we learned? What was most surprising about events throughout the rest of the world? What changes happened in our domestic society, for good or bad? How strong is the U.S. economy, really? Does anyone tell the truth anymore? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the year that was in 2024, and where they think everything is headed in the upcoming year....
Dec 19, 2024•28 min
Over the weekend, Syrian rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, which had ruled the country for 5 decades. On Monday, the US stock market shrugged, and meaningful news coverage of the event was hard to find. Do American investors simply not care about the rest of the world? After all, there seem to be a lot of global problems and US stocks are at an all-time high. Further, what is it about the Middle East where just about all countries have a powerful king or some other form of strongman or junta c...
Dec 11, 2024•23 min
The global wholesale diamond market has essentially collapsed over the last several years. Publicaly traded jewelry companies have been struggling with softer revenue and earnings. With the exception of perhaps ultra-high end brands, the demand for fine jewelry has essentially stalled. Is this due to the consumer being strapped for cash? Or have consumer preferences changed? After all, the demand for fine china and antique wooden furniture also seems to have waned. Could it be generational prefe...
Dec 05, 2024•22 min
Last week, Target Corporation announced disappointing sales growth for its 3rd Quarter of 2024. This was just another hint at a broader U.S. consumer slowdown or cooling. While spending forecasts aren’t dire, how much fuel does the average American household have in the tank to propel the upcoming holiday shopping season? Will it be merry and bright for retailers? Or will Santa be leaving coal in their stockings? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the upcomi...
Nov 25, 2024•18 min
Though November 20th, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value since the start of 2024. Since the end of 2022, it has more than quintupled. But why? Even the most passionate crypto investors have a difficult time explaining exactly what Bitcoin is in terms the average person can understand. It doesn’t pay dividends or interest. It doesn’t generate revenue or profits. You can’t hold it. Heck, you can’t even see it. So why do certain investors love it as much as they do? This asset class which exist...
Nov 20, 2024•25 min
