Now that the U.S. elections are finally over, investors are looking at their portfolios and wondering if the United States is still worth the risk. Will it still be able to generate attractive rates of growth? Are its institutions still relatively stable? Is its currency still sound? Will the Republicans spoil a good thing? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss how the U.S. remains the most attractive investment market for the foreseeable future.
Nov 14, 2024•24 min
The U.S. stock market took off like a rocket the day after the election. Why did it rally as strongly as it did? Was it policy? Something to do with Trump himself? Relief the painful campaign process was finally over? Or could it be the next 2-4 years looks a little less cloudy than it did on Monday? After all, investors have already had 4 years of a Trump presidency. Or could it be some sort of combination? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the markets’ ex...
Nov 07, 2024•24 min
Leading up to election, social media has been inundated with posts about minimum and living wages. However, what are they exactly? Do they actually work? Whom do they benefit and whom do they hurt, if anybody? Or, are they mostly political props candidate use to curry favor with voters? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the minimum wage and the concept of a living wage, and why they are difficult to enact, at best, across a nation the size of the United Sta...
Oct 31, 2024•26 min
In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss trends in the restaurant industry and the likely causes for many of the recent closures. John also gives a huge shout-out to Current Charcoal Grill here in Birmingham.
Oct 23, 2024•22 min
After another crazy year in the economy and markets, will there ever be a return to some sense of normalcy? Join John Norris, Sam Clement and David McGrath from our investment committee in this recorded webinar panel discussion on this topic and more: - How will the Fed rate cuts impact the economy? - Why the disconnect between the economic data & public perception? - What can the stock market do for an encore? - Will the U.S. be able to avoid a recession? - Will the presidential election ha...
Oct 17, 2024•51 min
To the outsider, American consumers must be a weird bunch. They will bemoan the cost of something insignificant, like a carton of eggs, while spending obscene amounts of money on concert tickets, sporting events and other types of activities. Undoubtedly, this change in consumer behavior will impact the economy moving forward. However, are the government agencies accurately capturing its impact using methodology they developed for a simpler time? What if our experiences are changing how we look ...
Oct 09, 2024•27 min
Last week, The People’s Bank of China threw an unprecedented amount of stimuli on the Chinese banking system in order to spur the sluggish economy. The Chinese stock markets have soared in response. However, will it be enough? The Chinese economy and banking system are facing severe structural challenges which could take decades to repair. From declining demographics to the collapse in the residential real estate market to the Communist Party exerting control over the private sector, China is pr...
Oct 03, 2024•25 min
In the United States, millions of people use some form of social media every second of every day. For many, it is their primary source of information. If so, just how accurate is it? Further, are they getting news from a number of different sources and voices? Or is it the same people saying the same thing over and over again? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the impact social media outlets will have on the upcoming elections?...
Sep 26, 2024•23 min
After months of speculating when the Fed would cut the overnight rate, it finally did so this past Wednesday by 50 basis points. Further, Fed Chairman Jay Powell essentially said this was the first cut of potentially many, while reiterating the economy was still strong. So, what does this mean for the U.S. economy? What does it mean for the real estate sector? What does it mean for the American consumer? Will lower rates really be the cure for what we think ails us? Or, like sugar pills, are the...
Sep 19, 2024•22 min
The Census Bureau recently reported the official Poverty Rate fell to 11.1% in 2023. Historically, this is a very low number. Further, median household income rose to an all-time high last year, and the current unemployment rate is a miserly 4.2%. Washington tells us the Consumer Price Index is a very manageable 2.5%, and real wages are going up. This is all very positive news, but why do so many people not believe it? Is the government’s methodology flawed or is it purposefully feeding the publ...
Sep 11, 2024•24 min
The quickest way to grow an economy is to unfetter it. However, the Federal government has enacted over 200,000 pages of regulations in the Code of Federal Regulations. It also routinely investigates naturally occurring monopolies, usually in the tech sector, which is both time consuming and costly. Since regulations present a cost to doing business, and, therefore, slowing economic activity, why does Washington persists in increasing the regulatory environment. Again, already over 200,000 in th...
Sep 04, 2024•24 min
Baseball card collectors should beware. The same could be said of folks who have stamp and coin collections. China table settings? Antique furniture? Silver serving trays and tea sets? Any so-called collectors’ item you can buy off the television? Most of these things don’t have the true market value many think they do. That is to say, what people are actually willing to pay for an item, and not where someone is trying to sell it on Ebay. But why when these items seem to be so precious? In this ...
Aug 29, 2024•26 min
Sometimes the official economic data doesn’t tell the whole story. So, when the data is in doubt, you have to go to corporate earnings releases to find the truth. Last quarter, it seems the truth was lower income households are feeling the pinch, and upper income earners are becoming more cost conscious. At least on somewhat generic goods and services. This makes perfect sense, as tickets for Taylor Swift and Beyonce cost a lot of money. So do international vacations and trips to the Gulf of Mex...
Aug 22, 2024•22 min
Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been reporting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to increase at a decreasing rate. That is ordinarily a good thing for US consumers. However, don’t tell that to potential first-time homebuyers who still can’t find a decent house at a monthly payment which makes sense. This keeps them renting instead of owner, which makes sense in the short-term but doesn’t over time. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? In this week’s Trading Perspectives...
Aug 14, 2024•24 min
After an incredibly easy go of it for the first seven months of 2024, the start of August was a rude awakening to U.S. stock investors. The market can and will go down, and no one is happy about it when it does. However, what was the real cause of this recent sell-off? Was it really a weak jobs report? Japanese monetary policy? Impending economic doom? Or was it a relatively normal reaction an unusual market? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent mar...
Aug 07, 2024•24 min
This week, Israel assassinated high ranking officials in both Hamas and Hezbollah. The world currently awaits Iran’s reaction and response to the killing of its allies. Will it lead to a greater escalation of hostilities in the Middle East? If so, just how involved with the United States get? With all of the anti-Israel protests happening in this country, will young Americans be willing to fight and die for U.S., Israeli and other western interests in the United States? Or will Generation Z ques...
Jul 31, 2024•26 min
The 2024 Presidential campaign has been nothing if not exciting. From the disastrous first debate to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump to President Biden dropping out of the race, things couldn’t get more weird. Or could they? Kamala Harris will assuredly leave the Democratic Convention in Chicago as the party’s official nominee. However, who will be the Vice President on her ticket? Just how far to the left will the party platform go? On the other side of the aisle, what does JD Vance u...
Jul 25, 2024•24 min
The collapse in the real estate market in China, and subsequent banking crisis, haven’t attracted much media attention in the United States. However, it is a very real story to the average Chinese citizen and that country’s prospects for economic growth moving forward. Simply put, the incredible erosion of wealth due to falling housing prices will constrain consumer spending and investment for the foreseeable future. Numerous private sector bank failures will leave Beijing even more in control o...
Jul 18, 2024•23 min
What if NATO held a conference in Washington and nobody paid any attention? As far as most Americans are concerned, that is exactly what happened this past week. Regardless of the general public’s disinterest, NATO remains the United States’ primarily military alliance and commitment. Further, NATO obligates the U.S. to potentially fight and die for countries many Americans couldn’t find on a map. So, why don’t we care more than we do? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John No...
Jul 11, 2024•23 min
The recent U.S. Presidential debate has been a topic of discussion since one minute after it began. Is the current President capable of serving out another term? Is the former President capable of keeping his ego in check to run the country without malice? What does this do for the election? What does this mean for the perception of American power around the world? Will widespread concern about Joe Biden’s effort result in a new Democratic candidate? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clem...
Jul 03, 2024•28 min
With China as the most notable exception, the world’s richest countries 25 years ago are still largely the richest. Similarly, the world’s poorest countries at the start of the century are still at the bottom of the list. The same could be said for U.S. states. Why is this? Why do some countries and economies continue to thrive and others languish? Why do some have spurts of growth before petering out? How do some economies without any natural resources perform so well while others with an abund...
Jun 27, 2024•27 min
Recently, the G7 held its annual meeting in Italy. In the past, this gathering got a lot of media attention. Recently, it hasn’t, and this year was no exception. After all, the only leader of the group who is certain to be at next year’s event is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. As a result, some have called the meeting “Meloni & the 6 Lame Ducks.” This relative weakness from the developed, western world’s leaders comes at an inopportune time. The Global South, led by China, is increasingly flexing i...
Jun 20, 2024•23 min
With the news surrounding Elon Musk’s potential $50+ billion pay package from Tesla, people are again focusing on CEO pay in general. Should these people be making THAT much money? While the headline numbers are truly mindboggling, is there more to it than meets the eye? Is there a difference between income and wealth creation when analyzing an executive’s true value to a company? Further, do shareholders really care if the company is making them money? Finally, do we really want the government ...
Jun 13, 2024•25 min
South Africa, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament are all having elections over the next 6 weeks. Individually, each of them has consequences for the United States and their own regions. Combined, they could very easily have a massive global impact. Will the South Africans continue their drift into the Chinese and Russian orbits? Will Mexico continue to move further away from the center, as it has under its current President? Will the United Kingdom be able to stop its decade-...
May 29, 2024•24 min
The world’s population is growing. Most of these people will be in third-world countries. They will aspire to have creature comforts Americans take for granted. Things like appliances and central air. In the United States, accelerated computing (AI), cloud and blockchain technologies and electric vehicles consume a lot of energy off the already stretched grid. In short, the demand for electricity, energy in general, is poised to accelerate over the next several decades. Is the global grid prepar...
May 23, 2024•22 min
The U.S. stock market has been surprisingly strong thus far in 2024. This, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut the overnight rate, and doesn’t appear poised to do so anytime soon. So, what is driving the current optimism? How much higher can stock prices climb? What will it take for U.S. investors to finally sell their positions? Should we reimagine the traditional methods of valuing the markets? Are the younger generations changing the rules of the game? In this week’s Trading ...
May 16, 2024•24 min
Washington continues to report rosy economic data, and the general public continues to not believe it. Why is the average American so down on the economy when the official data suggests they should be happy? Is it inflation? Is it societal divisiveness? What is the real story? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the disconnect between the public’s perception of the economy and what the government is saying is the reality. Who is right?
May 09, 2024•22 min
The recent turmoil, protests and an apparent lack of accountability at many prestigious American institutions of higher learning have begged a question: is an Ivy League education still worth the cost? Does the rarefied air of these schools for the elite still impress the American public the way it once did, not so long ago? If not, why and when did it happen? What’s more, will it ever again. In this episode of Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the ongoing protests at numerous Northeast...
Apr 24, 2024•22 min
With all the turmoil around the world, and the subsequent drawdown on US stockpiles, just how prepared would the US be if the planet erupted in a hot war? Would the United States have enough ammunition, missiles, ships and planes to fight several different types of wars on several different continents? What’s more, is the American public ready for such a thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss about American military preparedness in what is increasingly a dangerous time....
Apr 18, 2024•23 min
Last week, the minimum wage for fast food workers in California went to $20. This will become the de facto minimum wage for unskilled labor across the state. While it might seem like a win for workers, what will be the likely end result? After all, someone will have to absorb this mandated cost increase, and it isn’t just going to be employers. Don’t tell anyone in Sacramento that, though. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the concept of the minimum wage and what its real...
Apr 10, 2024•22 min
