Today, we are joined by Marty Lueck, Co-Founder of Aspect Capital, for a conversation on their systematic investment process, with a primary focus on research. We discuss why bias is a core element of Aspect Capitals investment philosophy, the essence of trend and why trend strategies work, as well as how they work together with their investors to create the most optimal portfolio for them. We also explore Lueck's analogy of trend as "medicine" and why it is important to give the medicine time t...
Feb 10, 2023•1 hr 6 min
Today we are joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We talk about Rory’s in-depth research focused on the oil sector, as well as the current narratives impacting the price of oil right now. We discuss his deep dives into the workings of the oil industry, focused on adding a broader perspective to price assumptions and market fluctuations. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to China’s Covid lockdown, Rory shares his ref...
Feb 08, 2023•1 hr 7 min
Today, we are joined by Svante Bergström, Founding Partner and CEO of Lynx Asset Management, for a conversation on how they incorporate trend following in their trading strategy, through the use of a multi-strat approach. We discuss why they believe trend following will continue to work for the next hundred years and how they ensure a good balance between achieving a high Sharpe while maintaining the trend following profile, what they have learned from 2022 and how they used diversifying models ...
Feb 06, 2023•1 hr 7 min
Today, Andrew Beer returns to the podcast for a conversation on Trend Following & Managed Futures more broadly, where we reflect on what happened in the first month of 2023 and the outlook for rest of the year. We also discuss why many investors started to panic in the last half of 2022 and why Managed Futures is such a powerful "companion" strategy, the recent change of sentiment to stocks and bonds and why we should sometimes just trust the evidence. We round things off with a deep dive in...
Feb 05, 2023•1 hr 8 min
Today, we are joined by Marty Bergin, President of DUNN Capital Management, for a conversation on how and why they have continued to focus on Trend Following as their core investment strategy. We discuss the challenges of improving upon trend following and if it's possible to deliver it with a high Sharpe Ratio, what differentiates DUNN Capital from other trend followers and how they use research to stay well prepared. We also dig into their approach to trading futures and determining trends and...
Feb 03, 2023•1 hr 9 min
Today, Perry Mehrling, Economist and internationally recognized expert on our monetary system, joins us to talk about his new book: “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System”. Perry’s book is a “biography of the dollar” told through the life “Charlie” Kindleberger, an economist who helped craft the Marshall Plan and spent his life studying and writing about the best way to organize international money. We discuss why Charlie thought the world needs a “key currency” and how...
Feb 01, 2023•1 hr 10 min
Today, we are joined by Ryan O’ Grady, CEO and Co-Founder of ROW Asset Management, for a conversation on their all-weather, multi-strat approach to investing. We discuss the philosophy behind their trading strategy and why they choose to think holistically, why limiting yourself to trend following is a disadvantage and how they balance between simplicity and complexity in their research process, what they believe is the right number of markets to trade and how they diversify their portfolio. We ...
Jan 30, 2023•1 hr 14 min
Alan Dunne joins us for the weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current macro environment and how it impact markets. We discuss how the apparent positivity in the markets might get derailed by the lack of cooperation from policy makers and how a lurking uncertainty is threatening the calmness of the markets, the performance of the CTA industry, which markets are the best to trade and how the speed of your trend system affects the outcome, how CTAs capitalize on people...
Jan 28, 2023•1 hr 1 min
Today, we are joined by Kevin Cole, CEO and CIO at Campbell & Co, for a conversation on their approach to using trend following in their trading, with a focus on absolute return. We discuss their investment philosophy and the evolution of their expanded trading strategy, how they moved beyond pure trend using equities and how they use a multi-strat approach to stay diversified. We also discuss how they feel about being replicated and how they use their research process to keep an edge over t...
Jan 27, 2023•1 hr 14 min
Today, Kevin Coldiron is joined by the legendary David Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group, philanthropist, historian and more, for a conversation on what we can learn from his journey to become a billion dollar investor, based on his book, “How To Invest”. We discuss what Rubenstein learned from his work as a lawyer and what young, aspiring investors can learn from his book, why it is important to work with something you love to do and why investors are an important part...
Jan 25, 2023•58 min
Today, we are joined by President and CEO of Crabel Capital Management, Michael Pomada, for a talk on their approach to trend following as well as short-term strategies. We discuss the trading philosophy behind Crabel Capital Management and why they choose to primarily be long vol, what role the Sharpe Ratio plays in their trading strategy and how they use data in their research process to understand markets, how being de-siloed helped them to make 2022 their best year in terms of research ...
Jan 23, 2023•1 hr 22 min
Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how...
Jan 21, 2023•1 hr 25 min
Today, we are joined by Harold de Boer, Head of R&D and Managing Director at Transtrend, for a conversation on their unique approach to trend following. We discuss the investment philosophy at Transtrend and what makes them stand out against other investors, why markets trend and what history can teach us about trend following, how the war in Ukraine impacts markets and how Transtrend stays diversified. We also discuss why Transtrend has not deviated from trend and the importance of differen...
Jan 20, 2023•1 hr 14 min
In this episode, Cem and Niels are joined by Jeff Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, for a conversation on the shifts in global natural resources that we are witnessing right now. We discuss how the focus on de-carbonization has impacted the economy and why the low income group is actually the key driver of inflation, why Currie believes markets are set up for a recession in 2023 and how the war in Ukraine causes disruptions in energy infrastructure. We also discuss why OPEC ...
Jan 18, 2023•1 hr 3 min
In this first episode of the new mini series with the largest and most successful trend followers in the world, we are joined by Russell Korgaonkar, CIO at Man AHL, for a conversation on how Man AHL uses trend following in their trading strategy. We discuss the philosophy behind their work and why they believe trend following is a great strategy, as well as what makes Man AHL stand out to investors and how they make trend following more digestible while maintaining "crisis alpha". We also discus...
Jan 16, 2023•1 hr 7 min
Today, Rob Carver returns to the show for the first weekly trend following conversation in 2023, where we discuss the unusual situation with the vol market and how to use stops and moving average crossovers when entering and exiting trades, what it takes to run a trend following portfolio in 2023 and why it is not for everyone, how Kurtosis and skew is used in managed futures, Rob's process of picking parameters and why using a mixture parameter speed is the most optimal approach. We also discus...
Jan 15, 2023•1 hr 7 min
Today, Susan Shirk, Professor and expert in the US/China relationship and Chinese politics, joins us for a conversation on China’s rise to power, based on her new book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”. We discuss Susan’s research process and what laid the foundation for the book, the evolution of the control regime in China and how China has been taking things too far, how corruption affects Chinese politics and how Xi Jinping’s attempt to purge the corruption has led to an ove...
Jan 11, 2023•1 hr 3 min
Today, Niels and Alan introduces the new, upcoming mini series that will focus on trend following and managed futures on a broad scale and provide access to the brightest minds within our industry. We set the stage by discussing what kind of year 2022 turned out to be for CTAs and how the idea for the mini series emerged, what we expect and hope to achieve from our conversations with these top-tier managers and some of the exciting topics that we will bring up in the new mini series. We will als...
Jan 07, 2023•37 min
Today, we are joined by Dylan Grice, Co-Founder at Calderwood Capital, for a conversation on how he thinks about portfolio construction through focusing on alternative and niche investments. We discuss how Dylan and his team work and why they shy away from trying to predict the future, how they analyse the current economic situation and why he thinks what happens to inflation and interest rates the next few years is insignificant. We also discuss how they manage the risk of the strategies they a...
Jan 04, 2023•1 hr 8 min
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquid...
Dec 30, 2022•1 hr 7 min
Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years an...
Dec 24, 2022•1 hr 13 min
Today, Dave Dredge, CIO at Convex Strategies, returns for a conversation on volatility investing and why he believes the 60/40 portfolio is wrong. We discuss why big pension funds have been suffering major losses and what Dave means by living in a “Sharpe World”, self-organized criticality and how Central Banks have been handling inflation, the relationship between volatility and liquidity and importance of understanding the timeframe that you are trading within. We also discuss how Dave uses as...
Dec 21, 2022•1 hr 20 min
Today, Cem Karsan joins us to reflect on a week with heavy Fed action and some of the myths surrounding the Fed. We discuss how the behaviour of the Fed impacts inflation and the importance of understanding seasonality, why the discussion between recession and no recession makes little sense and the what direction the markets are heading. We also discuss Cem’s approach to trading the current volatility compression and why 44% of the S&P options volume is in 0 DTE, the key takeaways from the ...
Dec 17, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Today, Chris Miller, Author and Associate Professor of International History, joins us for a fascinating conversation on microchip technology and its impact on modern day society, based on his book “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology” - which just received the Financial Times Best Business Book of 2022 Award . We discuss why semiconductor chips are so important today and the complex manufactoring process behind them, the history and role of the very few companies that d...
Dec 14, 2022•56 min
Today, Rob Carver joins us for conversation on Trend Following with something for the both the individual everyday investor and the trend following nerds. We also catch up on this week's events which included news of the biggest one-week outflow of US Equity Mutual & ETF funds since April 2021 and the news that Blackstone will be limiting investor redemption's in one of their Real Estate funds. We discuss how Rob uses dynamic market selection to diversify his portfolio and how he plans out h...
Dec 10, 2022•1 hr 7 min
Today, we are joined by Shawn Hackett, Founder of Hackett Financial Advisors, for a conversation on how changes in weather and weather volatility affects the economy and you as an investor. We discuss the role and state of agriculture and the impact of climate change, the mechanisms of the climate and why understanding the big picture of weather cycles is so important, how we are transitioning into a new weather cycle, what it means for the crop production and important indicators for predicting...
Dec 07, 2022•1 hr 11 min
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to reflect on the month of November and take a peek into 2023. We discuss the equity rally and what it means for the economy, both currently and historically, the cycle of bear markets and why the current period has been unusual. We also discuss the role of diversified managed futures, why short term traders are interesting in that context and how it compares to trend following, the expectations for 2023 and what environment we are heading into, the issues with public ...
Dec 03, 2022•1 hr 11 min
Today, we are joined by Shannon Saccocia, CIO at SVB Private, for a conversation on how portfolio management and manager selection is carried out at a private bank. We discuss how the current unstable environment has caused a change in investor behaviour and how technology has impacted the economy, what the next phase of investments looks like and how the economic landscape has changed as well as how SVB Private has adapted their asset allocation to the current crisis and the implications of goi...
Nov 30, 2022•1 hr 9 min
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins us for a weekly update on Trend Following, following the release of the minutes from the FED’s Open Market Committee in a week of thin liquidity. We discuss whether trend followers can make money going forward after a great year and if it is "too late" to allocate to trend following, the historical perspective of trend following and what we can expect going forward based on the latest analysis from AQR, and how the fast flow of information impacts trend following. W...
Nov 27, 2022•1 hr 9 min
Today, we are joined by Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist of Clocktower Group, for a conversation on geopolitical analysis and how it can be used to predict the future, based on his book, “Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future”. We discuss why geopolitical analysis should be used and how it can prepare you for the future as an investor, what role politicians play in society and the methods they use to gain voters, how voters are affected by media and the i...
Nov 23, 2022•1 hr 19 min
