In today’s episode, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss currency markets and how we might see a new era of volatility in these markets moving forward, de-dollarization and the future prospects of the U.S dollar, recent performance of Trend Following and how it compares historically, insights from Alfred Winslow Jones as featured in the book, “More Money Than God”, portfolio construction techniques for managing risk, the importance of having a plan, long-only commodities vs. a long/short approach...
Apr 24, 2022•1 hr 12 min
Today, Niels and Cem are joined by Dr. Ben Hunt, Creator of Epsilon Theory, to discuss how he uses game theory, history and behavioral analysis to understand Narrative and how it is used as a weapon to influence human behaviour, how technology has made us more susceptible to "nudging", how Narrative is used to create more competition, division and inequality, how important it is to recognize “the water in which we swim”, the power of Narrative and control of the media, and how to fight back agai...
Apr 20, 2022•1 hr 11 min
Jerry Parker joins us in today’s episode, to discuss pros and cons of adding different trading styles to your strategy and how to react when bad periods occur, using borrowed money as part of a systematic trading approach, expected returns of equities, finding the best investment strategy, achieving a high level of consistency in your Trend Following returns, using AI and Machine Learning to predict the future, Divergent Regimes and how they may last a lot longer this time, the geometry of class...
Apr 16, 2022•1 hr 10 min
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Hugo Capel Cure, Managing Director of Rothschild & Co, to discuss how they build strong portfolios for their clients, how rising inflation can affect the markets in a surprising way, how they use CTAs and Trend Followers to mitigate risk, the challenges of staying invested, being a stock and fund picker at the same time, how manager selection is like a dating process and how they differentiate between process and outcome, how they make good decisions as a team,...
Apr 13, 2022•1 hr 1 min
In this week’s episode, Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital, joins me to discuss why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio, how to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes, why he created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index, the role and importance of ESG in commodities trading, how commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool, why Ukraine is so important for commodities, how to effectively protect yourself against inflation and much more ----...
Apr 09, 2022•1 hr 10 min
In today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Katherine Molnar, CIO of Fairfax County Police Officers Retirement System, and Andrew Spellar, CIO of Fairfax County Employees Retirement System, to discuss how asset allocation is handled by one of the best performing public pension funds, how they manage risk and balance their portfolio through diversification, how the current instability in the markets has shaped their investment strategy, expectations of returns for different investment strategies,...
Apr 06, 2022•1 hr 10 min
Today, Rich and I discuss the Q1 Trend Following performance and how it turned out to be one of the best calendar quarters for the SG Trend and SG CTA indices. We also dive into my own "thesis" about trend following in a De-Globalized world and why I believe that we may be returning to the golden era of trend following, like in the 1970s, 80s and 90s. As usual we debated a few great questions from our community, relating to Volatility Targeting and how to manage your Stop-Loss. A lively episode ...
Apr 03, 2022•1 hr 25 min
Today, Alan Dunne is joined by Ted Seides, host and creator of the Capital Allocators podcast, to discuss the investment approach and philosophy of David Swensen, the Yale Model and how Seides has used the model to develop his own approach, whether being a hedgefond allocator has become gradually more difficult over the years, the bet Seides made with Warren Buffett, asset allocation vs. manager selection and the challenges to overcome, what Seides has learned from doing his podcast, decisi...
Mar 30, 2022•1 hr 3 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins me in this week’s episode, to discuss strategies for rebalancing your portfolio, the coming de-globalisation and its impact on Trend Following, especially in light of events in Ukraine, the Hedger’s dilemma and how the LME may have lost the trust of its clients, divergence and how it might cause disruption in markets, what Mark learned from working with Ned Johnson III at Fidelity, and how the principle of Kaizen can be applied to trend following. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND F...
Mar 26, 2022•1 hr 18 min
In this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes aft...
Mar 23, 2022•1 hr 7 min
In today's episode Alan Dunne joins me to discuss many different aspects of trend following - its relevance, strengths, weaknesses and future, roll-harvesting strategies, what causes trends in markets, whether it is too late to invest in trend following, its role within risk mitigation, how investors perceive trend following and if you really need to trade strategies that fits your personality. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HE...
Mar 20, 2022•1 hr 10 min
In this episode Hari is joined by Alex Gurevich, author, PhD in mathematics and founder of HonTe Investments, to discuss how he values bonds differently to many investors today, how to build a balanced portfolio, the many ways to loose money when buying an option (even if you are "kinda" right) as well as how he makes decisions as a trader, how to manage stress and keep a healthy lifestyle as a hedge fund manager and what the future of the global financial markets may look like. ----- 50 YEARS O...
Mar 16, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Jerry Parker joins me in today’s episode to discuss trend following as a robust guide to the markets in a world of instability and insecurity. We also discuss the recent short squeeze in nickel which has led to an unprecidented response from the LME, how to develop a trend following system, and what to do if you miss a breakout trade. We dive into when to trade index-based products vs. single stocks, how to manage trailing stops, and Jerry's decision to stop doing trend following research and ro...
Mar 12, 2022•1 hr 24 min
In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Chris Schelling, Chief Investment Strategist at Venturi Private Wealth and author of the book “Better Than Alpha”, to discuss asset allocation and how assets are managed in the private space vs institutional space, about disrupting the 60/40 model and formulating a new standard, the evolution of the industry over the years, the role of liquidity in asset allocation, the use of Alpha and Beta in investment, what it takes to be a skilled manager and the ris...
Mar 09, 2022•1 hr 9 min
Today Rob Carver joins me to discuss how the Trend Following world is reacting to the aweful situation in Ukraine and how it affects markets and volatility, discussing the moral aspects of trend following in times of crises and we take lots of questions from our community regarding how to handle parabolic market moves, if trend following is over-crowded, who we believe is the next David Harding, how to allocate to different speeds of Momentum/Trend Following as well as thoughts on rebalancing as...
Mar 05, 2022•1 hr 25 min
On today’s episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Alan Higgins, the CIO and Chief Market Strategise of Coutts UK, also known as the Queens Bank, to discuss sound ways to invest in today’s environment, Alan’s interest at an early age in how to earn a risk premium, being a 60/40 investor and how the strategy will evolve, asset management vs. wealth management, distressed debt investing, behavioural biases, inflation, equity and interest rates, as well as the Yale Approach finishing off with some book re...
Mar 02, 2022•1 hr 3 min
Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the power of Trend Following during periods of heightened uncertainty, Trend Following applied to the ESG space, how endogenous price shocks cause longer-term trends, the new Top Traders Monthly Trend Following report, shorter-term Trend Following versus longer-term, and how ‘buy the dip’ investors are likely unprepared for sustained underperformance in stocks. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - ...
Feb 27, 2022•1 hr 24 min
Alan Dunne is joined today by Elizabeth Burton to discuss managing a public fund versus a private fund, the challenges to those invested in the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, the current outlook for inflation, performing above expectations, how to re-position a portfolio for higher expected inflation, fixed income versus real assets, categorising asset classes effectively, the limits of mean variance optimisation, using historical perspectives as an input into current decision-making, difficulti...
Feb 23, 2022•1 hr 4 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Trend Following versus Momentum strategies, the need to be humble about making economic forecasts, how Central Bank policies affect Trend Following performance, Cathie Wood and ARKK coming under pressure from the media, Trend Following on options, calculating a systems’ risk-to-stop, vetting new investors for their ability to handle risk, hard data versus stories, when to apply the ‘Moscow rules’. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-T...
Feb 19, 2022•1 hr 17 min
Alan Dunne is joined today by Sebastien Page to discuss how price shocks affect correlations, approaches to strategic asset allocation, how to position portfolios for the years ahead, the current outlook for equities their various sectors, investing in a rising interest rate environment, responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets, defining and achieving utility maximisation, the merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis, how to properly diversify a portfolio, the durability of tr...
Feb 16, 2022•1 hr 16 min
Today, Alan Dunne joins me to discuss how the change of tone from central banks can affect markets globally, Trend Following in a rising interest rate environment, the case for and against including carry trades in a Trend Following portfolio, how managed futures Trend Following can help investors throughout ever-changing markets, the future of the traditional 60 / 40 portfolio, some takeaways from Alan’s conversation with Phil Huber on this week’s new Top Traders Unplugged Allocator Series...
Feb 12, 2022•1 hr 5 min
Alan Dunne is joined today by Phil Huber, in the first of our new Allocator Series, to discuss the education gap that needs to be filled regarding efficient capital allocation, the typical clients and types of portfolios that Phil deals with, adjusting portfolios to accommodate for changing market cycles, defining ‘alternative investments’, the extent to which a portfolio should be actively managed, traditional versus alternative investments, the challenges of manager selection, cultivating...
Feb 09, 2022•1 hr 6 min
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the importance of hanging on to your outlier winners, value investing versus trend following, the optimum number of entry & signals per trade, the need to redefine ‘safe assets’, Jerry & Richard Brennans’ thoughts on Howard Marks’ remarks about Trend Following, risk parity within a Trend Following portfolio, the unpredictability of endogenous outliers, and deconstructing the old narrative that ‘Trend Following is dead’. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLO...
Feb 06, 2022•1 hr 17 min
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Cem Karsan, to discuss feedback loops across different markets, the decision to manage outside money, how institutions make trading decisions, the global macro effects from COVID-19, the importance of dealer flows in the markets, the feedback loop between options and their underlying assets, and approaches to delta hedging. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE In this episode, we discuss: How mar...
Feb 02, 2022•1 hr 23 min
Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how Federal Reserve policy affects the Trend Following environment, the benefits of scaling into and out of positions, Howard Marks’ opinion on the value of price, the factors that drive commodity prices, why typical inflation-hedges may not be as reliable as their reputation implies, how Trend Following is the perfect way to complete your portfolio, and the differences between a ‘trend chaser’ and a trend follower. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOO...
Jan 30, 2022•1 hr 17 min
Hari Krishnan is joined today by David Orrell, to discuss the problems with using physics analogies on financial markets, the cause and effects of price impacts, David’s new book: ‘Money, Magic, and How to Dismantle a Financial Bomb’, the magical properties of money, how sentiment drives price although it is so unpredictable in nature, the similarities between weather forecasting and economics, the sustainability of money creation by central banks, and some thoughts on cognitive interference. --...
Jan 26, 2022•1 hr 5 min
Richard Brennan joins us this week to discuss how to spot potential outlier trades before they occur, the power of simple trading rules over complexity, why endogenous events move markets 90% of the time and news events are behind only 10% of large market moves, how Trend Following models safely reduce risk exposure automatically as drawdowns increase, how to approach correlated markets in your portfolio, how to achieve diversification with limited capital, the Efficient Market Hypothesis versus...
Jan 23, 2022•1 hr 29 min
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Co-Founder & Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, to discuss how news drive price action, and some of the science behind the large price movements, how we should think about adapting to changing dynamics such as correlations, Jean-Philippe’s background in physics and journey into finance, the effectiveness of the Bloomberg terminal, using dimensional analysis for research purposes, the inelastic market hypothesis, differentiating ...
Jan 19, 2022•1 hr 2 min
Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the different ways that Trend Following is perceived by investors, the optimum amount of positions to trade at once, rating the riskiness of various investment strategies, Trend Following on the VIX, suitable risk amounts per market, what to do with the free cash in your futures account, if Trend Followers pyramid positions, trading CFDs and dealing with transaction costs, and the best lookback period when measuring correlations. ----- 50 YEARS OF T...
Jan 16, 2022•1 hr 26 min
Hari Krishnan is joined today by Dave Dredge, to discuss how long-volatility strategies can improve on the traditional 60/40 portfolio, the concept of ‘participate and protect’, the importance of understanding why compounding is the ultimate goal, the ‘always good weather’ portfolio, trading Bitcoin volatility, being a ‘value buyer’ of volatility, mechanisms for taking profits, and how to size portfolio allocations properly. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ...
Jan 12, 2022•1 hr 7 min
