As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer listener questions, including: * Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter? * Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"? * Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time? * Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more! This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode n...
Jul 12, 2024•42 min
The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection ensured that this political summer would be a hot one, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces serious dissent within his caucus for perhaps the first time since becoming leader in 2013. What does this summer have in store for him and his Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives? To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s ...
Jul 05, 2024•38 min
On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings. For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the ...
Jun 28, 2024•52 min
With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data , to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond. Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls sta...
Jun 21, 2024•32 min
On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in the Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early access to episodes every Thursday, an e...
Jun 14, 2024•49 min
The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad’s party. It’s a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election in October, so this...
Jun 07, 2024•31 min
This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides. To join the Discord page for The Nu...
May 31, 2024•55 min
The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October’s provincial election. But Tuxedo won’t be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Tra...
May 24, 2024•36 min
This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment a...
May 17, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have been in power in Ontario for nearly six years, but the party’s polling remains robust and the PCs have just come off two byelection victories — including in a seat the Ontario Liberals were hoping to flip. What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to the next provincial campaign in 2026? To explain the state of Ontario politics today, I’m joined thi...
May 10, 2024•36 min
On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election. In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on me in my weakened state in this week's edition of The Quiz. To join the Discord page for The ...
May 03, 2024•58 min
More than a week after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland presented her federal budget, we still don’t officially know whether it will pass a vote in the House of Commons as the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh hasn’t committed to supporting it. What’s behind his party’s will-they-or-won’t-they dance? Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the budget to pass to avoid an election. They also hope it will start a positive trend that will help them ...
Apr 26, 2024•41 min
This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars. To join the ...
Apr 19, 2024•51 min
The federal budget is only being presented next week, but already we know a lot of its highlights — thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau laying it all out for us ahead of time. What’s behind this unusual strategy, and will the Liberals be able to use the budget to change the dial? Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the New Democrats losing three veteran MPs who won’t run in the next election, what’s the state of the NDP...
Apr 12, 2024•41 min
This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex? In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and w...
Apr 05, 2024•1 hr 1 min
The Alberta New Democrats are looking for a new leader to replace Rachel Notley, and the campaign got a jolt this week when Rakhi Pancholi, one of the top contenders, withdrew from the running to throw her weight behind former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already over. To break it all down, I’m joined this week by two people who know the Alberta NDP very well. Leah Ward is vice president at Wellington Advocacy a...
Mar 29, 2024•35 min
This week, Philippe and I chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts me to the test with The Quiz. To join t...
Mar 22, 2024•1 hr 1 min
Last fall, I was joined by David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data , to take a look at the new voter coalition that the Conservatives were building with a deep dive into his polling data. It was a really fascinating dissection of the polls , so I invited David back again on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast for another deep dive — this time into the demographics of the Canadian electorate. Using a compilation of multiple polls conducted over the last few months, we look at age, gender,...
Mar 15, 2024•51 min
If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests my knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episod...
Mar 08, 2024•50 min
On Monday, voters in the Ontario riding of Durham will be going to the polls for a federal byelection to fill the seat vacated by former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole. It’ll be the culmination of what has been months of preparing for this contest. But what goes into running a byelection campaign? On this episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that. Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of pol...
Mar 01, 2024•37 min
A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the ...
Feb 23, 2024•1 hr 19 min
This week on The Writ Podcast , I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. We also set expectations for the upcoming byelection in Durham. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director ...
Feb 16, 2024•46 min
This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and I put Phili...
Feb 09, 2024•1 hr 19 min
Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who used to be the dominant force in Atlantic Canada. To update us on the latest in provincial and federal politics in their two provinces, I’m j...
Feb 02, 2024•29 min
Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia? To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon s...
Jan 26, 2024•49 min
British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns. So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The Writ Podcast . To help me do that this week, I’m join by Richard Zussman , Global News legislative re...
Jan 19, 2024•52 min
After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me for last week's Quiz. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Pat...
Jan 12, 2024•56 min
On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest! Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site...
Dec 29, 2023•1 hr 18 min
Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back. In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom b...
Dec 22, 2023•43 min
The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here...
Dec 15, 2023•52 min
