The final days of a campaign can be hectic. The Conservatives had to pull together a couple of advertisements on short notice. Every party is sending their leader on a cross-country tour and volunteers on the ground are pulling out all the stops to ID their supporters in order to get them out to the polls on election day. There’s a lot going on in this last week before election day. Ads, tour, get-out-the-vote. So, what’s the story on how parties actually get it done? Throughout this election, t...
Apr 23, 2025•42 min
The tension rises and the drama builds. The results have been trickling in all night — first it was too early to call, then it was too close to call. But, finally, the networks are ready. The anchor cuts off whoever is speaking and says “we’re ready to make a projection.” There’s a brief pause as the graphics come on the screen and the music pipes in. It took a long time, but the network is now ready to project a government. Will it be majority or minority, Liberal or Conservative (or something ...
Apr 22, 2025•36 min
We’re entering a critical phase of this election campaign as the leaders face-off in two debates and advance voting begins this weekend. The polls suggest the margin could be tightening somewhat between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Could the debate shake things up? On this episode of The Writ Podcast , the Pollster Panel is back to survey the current landscape, discuss the reliability of the polls and what they may or may not be missing, and how public opinion res...
Apr 16, 2025•43 min
Parties proudly present their slate of candidates in every election shortly before dumping some of them. It’s an inevitable part of every campaign — rejecting candidates who don’t meet a party’s vetting standards and ejecting candidates when rival parties have dug up the dirt on them. So, what’s the process behind candidate vetting? And how do parties go about compiling, and then using, opposition research? Plus, Pierre Poilievre has been putting on some massive rallies. How are these organized ...
Apr 08, 2025•45 min
We’re deep into the second week of this election campaign and it appears to be Mark Carney’s to lose. But just how solid is the support for the Liberals, and what can Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives do to get back into the race? This week on The Writ Podcast , I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down. Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara , was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during ...
Apr 02, 2025•38 min
Mark Carney kicked off Canada’s election campaign on Sunday and already parties are discovering that their best laid plans can go awry very quickly. So, what goes on behind the scenes when parties draw up their strategies for a campaign and what happens when they have to react to the unexpected? Throughout this election, I’ll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and help make some sense of just what is happening out on the hustings...
Mar 26, 2025•36 min
We’re apparently only days away from an election call and the polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals have taken the pole position ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. So, what should we make of these emerging trends and how should they inform each party’s strategy heading into this campaign? Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks? This week on The Writ Podcast , I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down. Dan Arnold, ch...
Mar 19, 2025•47 min
Canada’s political environment appears to be in flux, as the threats of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the resulting Liberal leadership race have jostled what had been a steady trendline in the polls. What to make of the diverging numbers and how do parties have to adjust their strategy as everything shifts beneath their feet? Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he ...
Jan 29, 2025•48 min
Chrystia Freeland’s resignation as finance minister on Monday has thrown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government into chaos. What should we make of this unpredictable week in Canadian politics, and where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here? There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail ’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it. In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on pod...
Dec 18, 2024•38 min
Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances? We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures. Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning ove...
Dec 06, 2024•38 min
A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the ne...
Nov 29, 2024•43 min
A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau? On this episode of The Numbers , we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has ...
Nov 22, 2024•44 min
The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row? We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec...
Nov 15, 2024•52 min
Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it. We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz! Want even more of...
Nov 08, 2024•42 min
Incumbents in all three provinces that voted in October took their licks, but David Eby in British Columbia and Scott Moe in Saskatchewan managed to secure re-election. That wasn’t the case for Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, who lost not only the premier’s chair but his own seat. What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election? The Pollster Panel is back...
Nov 01, 2024•39 min
This week on The Numbers , we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do? We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug ...
Oct 25, 2024•46 min
Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day. We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa. Apologies for the poor audio from me...
Oct 18, 2024•55 min
There are less than two weeks to go in the B.C. and New Brunswick provincial elections, while Saskatchewan’s campaign officially got underway. We’ll know who has won these three contests by the end of the month, but for now all three might be too close to call. Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman , Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Br...
Oct 10, 2024•45 min
This week on The Numbers , we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault. In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could g...
Oct 04, 2024•40 min
The writs dropped last week in both British Columbia and New Brunswick as the dates for the next provincial elections were officially set for October 19 in B.C. and October 21 in New Brunswick. The polls suggest that both campaigns are too close to call, which means the next three weeks could prove decisive. To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman , legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitra...
Sep 27, 2024•31 min
This week on The Numbers , we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics? We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ ...
Sep 20, 2024•57 min
The fall political season could prove to be a tumultuous one, as the end of the deal between Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP opens up the possibility of a snap election and ensures that brinksmanship will be the order of the day, at least until that vote happens — something that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will try to force as soon as possible. But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSall...
Sep 13, 2024•42 min
This week on The Numbers , we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign. In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Phi...
Sep 06, 2024•55 min
With just a few weeks to go before the writ drop, the next election in British Columbia was thrown on its head Wednesday when Kevin Falcon announced he was withdrawing B.C. United from the race — and endorsing John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives. What does this mean for the NDP and Premier David Eby’s chances of re-election, as well as for the future of the once formidable, now former, B.C. Liberals? The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the st...
Aug 29, 2024•27 min
It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise. We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, y...
Aug 23, 2024•1 hr
The closest thing to a dynasty in Canadian politics is in Saskatchewan, where the Saskatchewan Party has governed since 2007. First under Brad Wall and now under Scott Moe, the Sask. Party has dominated in election after election, relegating the New Democrats to the opposition. But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October? On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined by Adam ...
Aug 16, 2024•31 min
What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan. In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz. To join the Discord page f...
Aug 09, 2024•1 hr 3 min
Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand? On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast , I’m joined by Jacques Poitras , the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to h...
Aug 02, 2024•31 min
A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive. (Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.) This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin ...
Jul 26, 2024•57 min
On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario. In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in fu...
Jul 19, 2024•59 min
