* I am recording this podcast on Cyber Monday * Cyber Monday first got its name because e-commerce wanted its own version of Black Friday * It's losing some significance, given it is losing some of its competitiveness because of the strong online sales during Black Friday * Online sales were up about 20% over last year, but the brick and mortar retail sales were down about 10% * The retailers' inventories were positioned for a big increase * I think this holiday sales season will be weaker than ...
Nov 30, 2015•39 min
* Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day, one day before Black Friday * The one day of the year where Americans make their annual pilgrimmage there they stampede to the nearest mall to buy stuff they really don'[t need and can't afford * It's almost like a black and blue weekend * I believe that this will be a pretty weak holiday weekend; by the time we get the sales numbers next week, it's going to be pretty dismal * The news that brought the euro down this morning was rhetoric coming from Mario Draghi ,...
Nov 25, 2015•37 min
* Friday the 13 was an unlucky day on Wall Street * The Dow was down over 200 points - the second back to back decline of over 1% since August * What was happening in August? Everybody was convinced the Fed was going to raise rates in September * Now, everybody is just as convinced that the Fed will raise rates in December * Once again, as I predicted a week ago, the market sold off * We are down over 650 points on the week * Nasdaq is down today even more - 1-1/2% * The carnage was once again l...
Nov 14, 2015•19 min
* When I recorded my last video blog, I mentioned how positively the market reacted to jobs report, which could signal the Fed to raise rates * I said there might be a delayed reaction and, in fact it did * Four days into this trading week we are down more than 450 points * Also, I did an interview on CNBC.com where I said I felt the retail markets would have a a tough time this Christmas * That was translated into headlines that I stated that consumers would have a horrible Christmas, which was...
Nov 13, 2015•35 min
* Friday, November 6, 2015 * Earlier today the government released the Non-Farm Payroll Report for the month of October * I was told that this was the most import Non-Farm Payroll report ever * They were looking for 190,000 jobs and we created 271,000 jobs * Everybody now has jumped to the conclusion that a December rate hike is a lock * There is nothing in this jobs report that indicates that * The reason everybody believes that the Fed is like to raise rates is because Janet Yellen testified b...
Nov 07, 2015•23 min
* Here we go again; Janet Yellen was on Capitol Hill testifying about the banking system * Forget about all her comments about how solvent the banking industry is - of course it's not * The banking system is more vulnerable and more highly leveraged than before the bailout * I am focusing on what she did or did not say about the Fed's intentions to raise rates in December and how the markets reacted * Headlines following the testimony were about the probability that the Fed will raise rates in D...
Nov 05, 2015•27 min
* I am recording this podcast from New Orleans, where I am attending the Investment Conference * Today, I am going to talk predominantly is the FOMC statement that came out yesterday following the conclusion of their 2-day October meeting * It was largely expected that the Fed would not raise interest rates in October and that's exactly what happened * I predicted this a long time ago * What is amazing is that, as a result of this announcement, more people expect the Fed to raise rates in Decemb...
Oct 29, 2015•27 min
* This is the first podcast I've been able to record since the death of my father, Irwin Schiff, who passed away on Friday * If you're interested in learning more about him and the circumstances surrounding his death, I would encourage you to read my commentary, " The Death of a Patriot " * There also links to many other articles written about him on my Facebook page * You can also find on my YouTube channel, my father's debate for the 1996 Libertarian Nomination for President * You can also fin...
Oct 22, 2015•26 min
* We finally got some economic news today, all of it bad * All of it "unexpected"... * Hope springs eternal on Wall Street * That's why the Federal Reserve can maintain its forecast of an interest rate hike before the end of the year * Although now a second Fed official has come out saying he doesn't think a rate hike will be appropriate this year * All this was forecasted by me; there was a method to their madness to maintain the theater that a rate hike is even possible * When is the Fed going...
Oct 15, 2015•25 min
* The Dow Jones finished up almost 140 points - back over 17000 * The Dow has now rallied 1,000 points since its lows on Friday following the lower than expected Non-Farm Payroll number * The market originally sold off until traders realized that bad news is good news and they bought the dip * The buying intensified today following the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting * I predicted the markets would experience a rally based on the weak Non-Farm Payrol number * The U.S. market lo...
Oct 09, 2015•25 min
* It is the first Friday of the month, and that means that this morning we got the September Non-Farm Payroll number * Anyone who has listened to my podcasts and video blogs knows that for months I have criticized these so-called strong jobs reports * I think what's going on is a transformation of the economy from full-time jobs to part-time jobs and that necessitates creating more jobs that you destroy, but the real story is beneath the surface * The report we got today was one of the weakest r...
Oct 03, 2015•30 min
* It's been over a week since I did my last podcast there's been a lot of economic news - almost all bad * The markets have been under pressure - we're back down near the mini-Black Monday lows, solidly in correction mode * The pressure on international markets has been greater * Yet the vast majority of economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates by December * This would really mean last minute - as the Fed's messaging hints at an interest rate hike by the end of the year * If you look at...
Sep 30, 2015•27 min
* Tuesday's podcast was titled, "Will She or Won't She?" referring to whether or not Janet Yellen would announce an interest rate hike for the first time in almost 7 years * Today we got the official answer: "No." * For the 54th consecutive time, the Fed has left interest rates unchanged at zero * What is even more amazing, in the Q&A immediately following the announcement, Janet Yellen admitted that she could not rule out the possibility that interest rates would stay at zero forever * A re...
Sep 18, 2015•24 min
* Tomorrow we have the most highly anticipated Fed meeting ever, but this will not be the last time I'll say this * We'll also be anticipating October and December if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September * The odds are they won't do it * I put a Bloomberg story on my Facebook page: Yellen's former aid says a rate hike would be a serious error * Why? The official target for the Fed Funds Rate now is at a range of 0 to .25 basis points * The Fed is contemplating a rate of .25 which i...
Sep 16, 2015•24 min
* The U.S. stock market finished out this holiday-shortened week on an upnote with the Dow Jones up just over 100 points * This was the best week the market has had since March * The dollar was softer on the week; the euro ended solidly above 113 * Gold was under pressure throughout the day but closed only off about $3.00 * Gold stocks earlier this morning were at the lowest I've seen in this cycle but then had a sharp reversal finishing much stronger on the day * The markets are looking forward...
Sep 11, 2015•22 min
* Another day, another 450-point swing in the Dow Jones * The market opened about 250 points higher off the back of overseas markets * Japan was the standout; it was up about 7% on the hope of more money printing * All overseas markets were stronger and the U.S. followed that lead, but at the end of the day, the market was down about 240 points, a lot of selling coming in the final hour * Huge swings almost daily over several weeks generally indicates a change in trend * The long-term trend of a...
Sep 10, 2015•31 min
* Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media * A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes * Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off * It all boiled down to one jobs report? * If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month? * Let's get into the numbers: * The number we got wa...
Sep 04, 2015•30 min
* The Dow just finished its worst month in over 4 years * A lot has happened in the market since I recorded my last podcast * When I recorded that podcast, I had anticipated a "Turnaround Tuesday" where the market would gap up, but then sell off by the close * That is exactly what happened * Then the Dow had its biggest 3-day rally in history * Still that record-setting rise was not enough to repair the damage done that was done earlier * The Dow had its biggest down month in over 4 years * Stil...
Sep 01, 2015•33 min
* It wasn't a Black Monday of the 1987 variety, but it was one for the record books * The Dow was down opened downjust over 1,000 points - the biggest intra-day point drop ever * When the market opened down that low, bargain hunters came in for a spectacular rally * Bringing the Dow almost back into positive territory before surrendering those gains and ending the day down 588 points, another 3.5% drop, closing at 15,871 * Taking out the 16,000 handle just a few days after taking out the 17,000 ...
Aug 25, 2015•23 min
* What a week for global stock markets, but in particular, the U.S. stock market, which had its worst week in 4 years * The Dow Jones down better than 1,000 points - over 10% from its peak puts it in official correction territory * One-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are already down 20% from their highs * The Dow lost more than half of the 1,000 points today - 530 points, which is the 9th biggest point decline ever * This is on top of the 350 points dropped on Thursday * Thursday we brok...
Aug 22, 2015•27 min
* Today the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 today and this is the last look inside the head of the FOMC members before September * Now expectations are being pushed back to December * Gold and silver prices were up today in spite of expected hawkish Fed comments * We are at more than a one-month high in the gold price now above 1130 against a backdrop of extreme bearishness suggests we've seen the low in this cycle * Silver was down yesterday and recovered dramatically today which suggests an...
Aug 20, 2015•20 min
* On Friday we finally got the Non-Farm Payroll numbers for July * The consensus is that this reports indicates that an interest rate hike is inevitable * This is the rate hike that everybody has been expecting and this report see * The report is weak, relative to previous months, but slightly ahead of the consensus * It seems like we are going in the wrong direction * Labor Force Participation Rate is stagnant at the lowest in decades * Q2 GDP was much lower than expected * the Atlanta GDP Now ...
Aug 11, 2015•25 min
* One piece of positive economic news ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July surged to 60.3 - highest number in 10 years * The ADP Employment Report came in at 185,000 jobs, well below the consensus * June Trade Deficit rose 7.1% - in line with expectations * June Layoffs rose to 105,696 biggest layoff number in 6 years * Consumer Comfort Index down to 40.3 second lowest number since November * The Atlanta Fed dropped a bombshell forecasting Q3 at just 1% * Given this slowdown, could we possibly h...
Aug 10, 2015•21 min
* This is my 100th Podcast * This new format allows for timely analysis when is is most convenient for me and for you, the listener * Please share these podcasts, to get this valuable information out * My podcasts can be accessed on YouTube, on iTunes and other podcast sites and right here on my website * Also don't forget to check out my Twitter feed, because I comment much more frequently on daily economic news * Check out my post on Facebook about the CEO who established a $70,000 minimum sal...
Aug 04, 2015•30 min
* This morning we got the first look at Q2 GDP * Q1 had been reported most recently at -.2 * Everybody was looking for an upward revision due to the double seasonal adjustments * The revision brought Q1 into the black, but only by .6 * Q2 expectation was 2.9; instead it came in at 2.3 * I had mentioned that at best, Q2 GDP would be in the low 2's, which is what we have * After revisions, however, we could end up at below 2 for Q2 * Wall Street and the Fed were too optimistic about Q2 * Now previ...
Jul 31, 2015•21 min
* The Dow Jones had its worst week since January - closed the week at 17,568, down 518 points * Friday's drop alone accounted for 163 points * Capital One had a huge earnings miss and announced big layoffs * Big losses on bad debt * All the economic data from this year has been negative * There is no precedent for the Fed to raise rates when all economic indicators are down * Normally The Fed stimulates when the economy is down * The most interesting economic news on Friday was a leak from the F...
Jul 25, 2015•41 min
* Today's Podcast is entirely devoted to gold and gold stocks * Last night, in just a few minutes, gold dropped $50 * One or more major sell orders hit the market at the same time and gold went down below $1100 * It was down $20 by the time New York trading opened and by market close gold was down around $37 on the day * Silver was down only about .15 today * Why was all that gold dumped? The goal could not have been to get a good price - the goal was to knock the price down * The HUI was down 1...
Jul 21, 2015•23 min
* Today Janet Yellen goes back up the Hill for the second of her 2-day Congressional testimony and the press has already made headlines about what she did not say * According to the headlines, Yellen's "hawkish" testimony reflected that she is putting the Fed on a path to hike rates later later this year * That is not what she said * From her prepared, written testimony, which was carefully crafted for all eyes, this is what she said: * "If the economy evolves as we expect, economic conditions l...
Jul 16, 2015•32 min
* As I have been saying all along, the Greek Prime Minister capitulated to German demands * In fact, he is agreeing to a plan that is more onerous on Greece than the one he encouraged his own people to vote down just over a week ago * Those who thought Greece held all the cards, that the Eurozone would risk a domino effect of other nations leaving the euro * I felt Germany held the stronger hand and would push Greece from the Eurozone rather than cave in to Greek demands * Greece is going to sta...
Jul 14, 2015•21 min
* This podcast comes from my hotel room in Las Vegas, as I am attending Freedom Fest * Janet Yellen received a standing ovation at the end of her talk, and I can't understand why... * Headlines from the talk report "Rates to go up by the end of the year" * Actual quote:"Based on my outlook, I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later to take the first step to raise the Federal Funds Rate, and thus begin normalizing monetary policy." * "I want to emphasize that the course of the econ...
Jul 11, 2015•21 min
