* Over the weekend the Greeks voted no to the Eurozone bailout terms * The Greeks ars still hoping for a better deal, hoping to avoid austerity * The irony is that the consequences of their vote will bring on even more austerity, as a return to the drachma will result in a lower-valued currency * For example, pensioners will be paid not in fewer euros but drachmas that buy less * This will mean a huge collapse in the standard of living in Greece - far worse than the "austerity" called for under ...
Jul 08, 2015•26 min
* Happy 4th of July to everyone * Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny * I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out * I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show * The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday * The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000 * The...
Jul 03, 2015•23 min
* One more time President Obama seeks to buy Democratic votes with a free lunch by appealing to workers * Promising more overtime pay, to go into effect in 2016 * Raises the threshold for overtime pay requirements * Workers who earn salaries of $50,000 or less must be paid overtime for hours worked over 40 hours per week * This prevents workers who put in extra hours on their own time to try to advance * This could cause employers to reduce salaries to factor in overtime * It will be harder for ...
Jul 01, 2015•21 min
* Global stock markets got beaten up overnight and the carnage continued here in the U.S. * Dow Jones down 350 points by closing bell - biggest point loss of the year * NASDAQ down 122 points * Possible Grexit sparked sell off in FOREX markets * Banks in Greece closing, sending masses to the ATM machines * Euro ended up closing near the highs of the day - nearly to $113 * The dollar was weak all day against the Yen and against the Swiss Franc * There was no safe haven move into the dollar - gold...
Jun 30, 2015•26 min
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Jun 25, 2015•22 min
* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit" * Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side * As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems * So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt * The same is true for cuts to government spending * The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for...
Jun 23, 2015•14 min
* Today was the expected day for expected rate hikes, indicating economic "lift-off" * The June rate hike is off the table and everyone is focusing attention on September * The prepared remarks are just a smokescreen to maintain the pretense that the economy can withstand a rate hike * The Q&A session after the the prepared remarks were more revealing * Janet Yellen ducked the question of why people who recommend postponing the rate hike to 2016 are wrong * Yellen stated that the "dots" used...
Jun 18, 2015•20 min
* Dow under pressure on the back of EU talks with Greece * There is a lot of room for the market to decline pending the Fed's announcements * The consensus is that rates will hike September or later * If Fed does not rates in September, Election year next year might also put off rate hikes * Bloomberg article quotes B of A hinting that additional stimulus would further damage the economy * B of A admits this risk has been getting the least amount of attention * Empire State Manufacturing Index m...
Jun 15, 2015•20 min
* Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government * ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates * 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline * Unemployment rate dropped * Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point * Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers * Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows * Older Americans ...
Jun 06, 2015•31 min
* Short week closed with some horribly bad news * People are not paying attention to the data; they are paying attention to the Fed * Government released revision to the GDP: -.7 * The assumption of deflation is cooked into the number * Most Q2 data is weak * Q1 Corporate profits plunged by 5.9% * JP Morgan announced 5,000 layoffs * Corporations are already levered up to the max * May Chicago PMI plunged back down to 46.2 - close to March's -year low * April Durable Goods fell .5 * March Service...
May 30, 2015•18 min
* The U.S. dollar started out this morning on the defensive * Government released CPI numbers generated a sharp reversal across the board * Gold sold off, but closed slightly down against the dollar * April CPI up just .1% on the month; year over year prices dropped -.2% * Lowest CPI since October 2009 * Core CPI (excludes food & energy) rose .3% * Biggest monthly jump since March 2006 * News sent dollar up on anticipation that rate hike will be more likely * Inflation benchmark is just as r...
May 23, 2015•25 min
* Earlier today latest FOMC minutes released * Once again the weather is blamed for missed expectations, pretending the economy is better than it is * Now the Fed dismiss numbers as inaccurate, because seasonal adjustments are off * Why does the government need to seasonally adjust the numbers * Yearly GDP is the number that matters * Once the numbers begin adjusting the numbers you open the floodgates to manipulation and subjectivity * Wall Street analysts tend to be more optimistic for the fir...
May 21, 2015•27 min
* S&P responds to bad news with new high; DJ just barely off record high * Dollar continues to fall * The currency traders still have not accepted the significance of bad news * Lower dollar will be the trend * Friday got a trifecta of bad economic news * Thursday Weekly Jobless Claims number declined to 264,000 - lowest weekly jobless claims in 42 years * Why are there so few job losses? Because so few people are getting hired * Government numbers come from the Birth/Death Model, which assu...
May 17, 2015•21 min
* Another week and another round of bad economic news * Wall Street may be finally paying attention * JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million * April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat * X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1 * Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries * Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009 * Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since Ja...
May 14, 2015•20 min
* First official jobs report of Q2 * Wednesday's ADP private payrolls were below expectations * March was revised down, indicating a softer labor market * Challenger job cuts numbers well above previous month, biggest year over year increase in 10 years * The jobs number came in at 222,000 jobs with unemployment down to 5.4% * The media is spinning the headline number * The picture underneath the jobs report is not as nice * The March downward revision by 41,000 jobs causes one to question wheth...
May 08, 2015•30 min
* Upcoming Appearances * Thursday morning panel at the SkyBridge Capital SALT Conference in Las Vegas * Liberty Forum - Salt Lake City * MoneyShow - Las Vegas * Economic News for the Week: March Factory Orders met expectations, but downwardly revised February number for 5th straight year-over-year monthly drop * March Trade Deficit: $51.4 billion, a miss greater than $10 billion and the single worst trade deficit since October 2008 and largest monthly gain in nearly 20 years * If the economy is ...
May 05, 2015•21 min
* Markets on roller coaster ride final two trading days of this week * Bad news parade marches on in April * The players are still clinging to fantasy of U.S. economic recovery * Dollar finished down substantially on the week - April was the first down month in 10 months * Dollar has seen its highs and is heading lower * Gold back below 1200 * Oil prices added to gains closed above $59 - moving opposite to the dollar * Friday - March Personal Income & Spending flat below expectations * Perso...
May 02, 2015•30 min
* Government's first look at Q1 GDP * There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3% * Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2% * The rest of the story of Q1 GDP: * The deflator this time was negative - meaning that prices dropped by .1% * The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession * The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949 * I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1% * Inventory build continued into Q1 - bu...
May 02, 2015•23 min
* The Keynesian myth of mandating prosperity actually hurts the lower middle class and the working poor * Something for nothing is appealing to voters, so politicians make empty promises that are good politics but bad economics * A Seattle-based company called Gravity Payments has instituted a minimum salary of $70,000/yr * This has given him great publicity, but how will this work in his company? * Lower paying jobs will have to be eliminated, because they don't represent enough productivity to...
Apr 28, 2015•25 min
* S&P and the NASDAQ made new record highs * Stock market continues to ignore all the bad news about the economy * Bad news is not being ignored in the foreign exchange markets * Negative economic news is buoying the stock market because it removes fear of interest rate hikes * Weak economy means more cheap money which means higher stock prices * Oil prices hitting highest prices of the year * Gold is back above the 1200 level * April PMI Manufacturing Flash Index at 54.2 biggest miss ever *...
Apr 27, 2015•20 min
* Markets have been volatile but economic data still looking bad * Chicago Fed National Activity Index: contrary to expectations, came in at -.42 in addition a downward correction for last week to a 2-year low * Weekly Redbook Same Store Sales Survey down to lowest annual increase in 4 years with a dramatic rate of decline in recent months * Implausible excuses, such as the weather or the timing of Easter, attempt to mask the fact that the economy is just weak * Oil prices moved above $57, formi...
Apr 22, 2015•21 min
* Disney's theme parks are a monument to capitalism as it existed when Walt Disney envisioned Disneyland * The Hall of Presidents, however manages to honor presidents who supported big government over the free market * The choice of presidents demonstrates revisionist history that supports the liberal, big-government narrative * Whenever you expand government you contract liberty * The Dow ended the week down 279 points; NASDAQ down 75 * The search is on for excuses but the real issue is not glo...
Apr 19, 2015•28 min
* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip * Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count" * This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth * Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build * Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009 * What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in ...
Apr 16, 2015•19 min
* Markets continue to rally worldwide * Record highs overseas - much more action in Asia * Markets riding a sea of liquidity * Gold had an interesting week, closing at 1207 * The dollar had one of its best weeks in months * In terms of other currencies gold was at a 2-year high * This means that the euphoria about the dollar is not universally shared * Commodities in general were up - crude oil was up - holding above 50 * This is a good indication of a solid bottom on the price of gold * Traders...
Apr 11, 2015•21 min
* Big double standard in the media regarding "sexism" * Rolling Stone story based on complete fiction about a woman who claimed she was raped in a fraternity house * The reporter accepted the woman's story without checking sources * After the facts were out, the reporter apologized to everyone except the men who were falsely accused and the fraternity involved * Where is the outrage that the real victims did not receive an apology? * Is it sexist to assume that men do not deserve apologies when ...
Apr 08, 2015•19 min
* Media's take: Why run for President if you can't win? * "He's too Libertarian to win" * "He is not as Libertarian as his father" * "Rand Paul is closer to the mainstream than his father" * His chances are as good as anyone's at this point * He is actually closer to his father than he is to the mainstream * If you like Ron Paul, how can you not like his son? * Rand will maintain his father's supporters * There are a lot of Libertarian Republicans, and Rand will attract most of those votes * Ran...
Apr 08, 2015•10 min
* When employers empower certain groups with special privileges they become clubs with which to beat the employer * Employers are then reluctant to put themselves in a position to be bashed with that club * Large companies must prove diversity and go out of their way to hire minorities * That kind of discrimination is the right of the employer * Whenever you hire anyone you make yourself vulnerable to frivolous suits * The government has made American business less competitive by appealing to th...
Apr 07, 2015•20 min
* Markets are finally getting a chance to react to worst jobs report in two years * March non-farm payrolls coming in at about half of forecast * Dollar was off about 1% on FOREX * Stock futures were down on opening bell but shot 100 points higher * "Bad News is Good News" rally * CNBC thinks jobs takes June rate hike is off the table - but it was never on the table in the first place * The Fed will not be serving a September rate hike either * It's going to be an all you can eat "QE Buffet" * T...
Apr 07, 2015•15 min
* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks * Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero * Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom * Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build * No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback * U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains * Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3% * Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expec...
Apr 02, 2015•25 min
* Indiana passed a law to prevent lawsuits targeting religious objection * Pressure and feigned outrage from the left wing machine causes Governor to walk back the meaning of the law * The mark of a free society is the willingness to tolerate intolerance * Liberals are the most intolerant of other peoples' intolerance * In a free market there is always someone who wants my business, even if someone else does not * I would rather get the intolerance out in the open, and just avoid that business *...
Apr 01, 2015•38 min
