1074: Tucker Carlson’s “Regret” Is Just Another Scam

Am I showing too much skin? Do I think?

Hello everyone, this is JVL here on the next level with my best friends Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller of the Bulwark. This is Letieric for the Boy from Footloose. That's right. We got a lot of ground to cover today. It's gonna be very, very I was sort of hoping you would give me the the Ric Flair entrance music. Not let's hear it for the boy, but that's okay. This isn't. Sorry, but Yeah. Hold it like this, let me see. Hold it like this.

Yeah. Yeah. What is g uh talk about what's gonna be on the fine other design. Well, I mean clearly it's gonna like the rock, it'll be the people's championship belt because I was the the people's chan the people's choice and Not chosen by the panel of experts. No. I was not. I'm learning a lot about these awards and it turns out they might be a little sketchy. So uh it it turns out it turns out that there is a a gigantic uh

awards ceremony in New York City. And uh this is done basically to sell tables. I mean they can't take back my award at this point. I've won, so I can just spill all the secrets. uh to sell tables. And in order to sell tables, they give awards, achievement awards to a bunch of celebs. And so like Amy Polar wins best pod no, I'm sure Amy Polar's podcast is wonderful. But they're giving it to her because they want Amy Polter to show up at the at the thing. Polar's not gonna show up at the Webbies.

Uh so are do you planning on going? Are you gonna get a whole full table? Bring the whole family? I mean, you can fill up a whole table just with laughs. You know, um I'm not gonna be there. Okay. Maybe you should purchase a table for young bulwarks staffers and everybody can get a free trip to New York too and they can receive the webby in your honor.

So what they do is for the people who are this is like the the version of the Oscars where they do the uh like the audio and sound design and they now have shunted all those things to a separate night. They don't even do them on the same day. The Oscars. Um, for people like me, the People's Choice Award winners, we are told that we can give a we can have a speech that will be projected up on the screen during the ceremony. The text of our speech can be no more than five words. Ha ha ha.

Have you thought about your five? I have. Take us home. Can do it before. It's gotta be fuck Trump. But I some part of me thinks they wouldn't say wouldn't put Just like Jesus wept. Just two words that says it all. Maybe maybe JVL is always right. Donald Trump eat my ass. JBL, let us congratulate you though. Our people and we should say, our people show up for things like this. I I when I tweeted that you had won this, there was

Just genuine, rampant enthusiasm for the fact that you pulled this over the line with what I suspect was about eighty percent of the vote. Cause our people came and put up Saddam like numbers. So congratulations to you, buddy. I'm glad you got this. Thank you. It mean it means a lot. Um It meant more before last night when I slapped you guys bright up. Okay, all right, all right, let's move on to the news. Last night.

Tucker had his brother Buckley Carlson on his show. For like the second time this month. I'm wondering if I need if I'm gonna you're gonna know that I'm gonna that I'm starting to mail in the podcast, you know, in twenty twenty nine. When you wake up and look at your app on Wednesday and it's like, It's my buddy Wade from high school is the guest today, you know? And then it's like my brother Well.

Paul is on the show. And uh it's Buckley's been on twice now in the last six weeks, I think, spreading insane. It feels like when Buckley's on, that's when you get the real dope. Maybe interesting to note that Tucker's kid actually just resigned his position on J D. Brother. Supposedly long planned. Um So let's I I wanna listen to the audio here and then we can talk about it a little bit.

You and I and everyone else who supported him, you wrote speeches for him, I campaigned for him. What I mean we're implicated in this for sure. It's not enough to say, Well, I changed my mind or like, Oh, this is bad, I'm out. It's like in s very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now. So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. I agree.

You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And and I wanna say I'm sorry for misleading people in it was not intentional. That's all I'll say. But anyway, but the question does present itself immediately, like what is this? Was this always the plan? You don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but like clearly there were signs of low character. But it didn't there are tons of people of low character who like outperform their character. It doesn't have to Sort of.

Norm actually these days, I might say. I've outperformed my character a lot. of especially high character, right? But you know, you try to whatever you try your best. But um But what what what was this? Was this always the plan? Who's we get to the Jews there? We get the Jews are coming, in case you didn't pick up on that, in case any listeners don't have a fine tuned ear for the conspiracy theorizing. Let me just say two things and then you guys can react. Thing the first is that this is

So much more than we will ever hear from responsible types in conservatism. And like you will never hear the Wall Street Journal editorial page say something like that. Uh, you will never hear Rich Lowry say something like that. Uh and so sh thing the second Isn't this all we really want? No. No. Absolutely. I am simply presenting it for discussion because I came away from this buoyed and just thinking this is all this is all this is all we ask for.

He d he he said he was wrong. He didn't say we were right, which is which is really what we want to hear. And I'm grappling with my complicity in this and I was wrong about it all. And I take that seriously. Yeah. That's all I want to hear. That's all I want to hear. Where's Paul Gigo on that? I'd like to hear Paul Gigo say that. I wanna know if Tim and I are gonna go the same place. I'd like to hear Rich say that.

I well I would too. I I'd like to hear a lot of people say it. Okay. Um I I have people in my life I'd like to you know we're not gonna do it. We're not gonna go. So I hear ya. Tucker is a charlatan though, and a liar and a con man. Tucker is a con man. And so I just I won't be sucked into his con. I won't. And like that's And I and I sat at f and I sat at brunch and I've had this you know, if I've had this happen to me once about a million times.

I'd be have enough money to bet that million dollars against Cra Clay Travis on the gas prices going going up. But uh I and they're like, you know, Tim. I I didn't even believe it myself, but I was watching Instagram and I saw a Tucker Carlson post and I found myself repo re sharing it on Instagram and I was like, I couldn't believe it. It's I'm I'm uh here I am sharing Tucker. And I'm over there going, You're doing it. You're doing what he wants.

He's tricking you. You're getting conned. Just like the MAGA people got conned. He's con he's a very talented con man, but he's a con man. And I want if I would hear that from anybody who I thought was speaking the truth.

Like and I think that this is um you can only you can't know it's in people's hearts and we all looked at this and I think I kinda fell more on the JVL side of this and the Marjorie Taylor Green thing. Like I looked at her and saw a person that I thought was like had a genuine change of heart. Tucker is still is a con man that has a podcast And this is what he's trying to do. So if it's helpful in the short term, whatever.

I I'm I'm I just wrote a column about taking yes for an answer from people who want to change their mind, regular people who have had a change of heart, who have felt betrayed. Tucker is not somebody like that. Tucker Is it on an ankle? Yeah, and his angle is that he's gonna run for president. Right? This this whole thing, this whole Not in anger but in sorrow at Trump is the the splintering of the America First types moving in their direction of like he betrayed us.

on this and we're gonna need we're gonna need someone else to represent us because Trump betrayed us and Tucker wants to lead that army and so does Marjorie Taylor Green. Uh and that's what's happening right now. And it doesn't matter Um, like you can say they can be useful in helping to dislodge the Trump. But they are not useful. And I think the next level order, which is Yeah.

making America a place that we all want to be in. Like they want to take the worst instincts of Trump's America first stuff, the griperism, um so much and just They want that's what they want. And so I don't I don't think we need to, again, we can we can say like he's right on the overall merits, probably disagree with him on most of the underlying fundamentals though. And I would also say the one thing I will give you, JVL, is I do think the fact that Tucker is saying this

And Marjorie Taylor Green and all these terrible people, Candace and Megan Kelly. I do think it shines a very unflattering mirror onto the national review crowds, the Republican senators. the Mitch McConnell's of the world, the Mike Johnson's right, like the establishment of the Republican Party. Like the fat I d I I it is because even if it's not on this issue

Uh yeah, I guess I think the response you might get from somebody like that of John Thune, like if you gave them truth serum, would be like, Well, why would I sound like Tucker on the Iran War? I'm for the Iran War. I wanted to bomb Iran. But it's like there have been a myriad other issues

in which Donald Trump has been an affront to their supposed values, whether it be tariffs or or stealing the election and trying to end American democracy or whatever. And like none of them were this clear about that. And I think that that should shame them. that like they are of even lower character than Tucker Carlson, who is a fucking lying charlatan. So I I I would I'll give you that point, but I but that's the tiniest

Well, I I'd I certainly grant uh the desire to hear that from them, but they are the MAGA establishment, right? This is the split. The America Firsters and the MAGA establishment have reached a crossroads. And we have been watching it for a while on among all the podcasters, but we're seeing it now with the America first types who are like, we wanted something different. We were promised something different. This war in Iran is their breaking point on top of other

Epstein, the fact that, you know, Trump's not focusing on the economy, et cetera. This is their last straw. And so they're gonna take their ball and they're gonna go do America first things. And that's gonna leave the MAGA establishment. Uh, which I think still has a lot of juice. But that's where your Mike Johnsons live, that's where your Rubio lives. Vance has always tried to straddle these two and the war has made it impossible for him to do that.

Which is why Tucker's kid leaving is so meaningful. Right.'Cause it's like d like Vance. Fancy's ability to straddle it, like Tucker was a huge You know, I I just you keep go I keep going back to like when to when Vince is doing this successfully, the one

time I I complimented his political skills and everybody was making fun of him was back during that T P USA feud after Kirk died. And it's like Ben Shapiro goes up on stage and it's like Vance has been great and Tucker goes up on stage is and Vance has been great. And so he managed to straddle it for that long, but now that's I mean, okay, so I hear what you're both saying and I I understand that the the credibility of the messenger matters. Um

But at the same time, like I just I don't know what more we can ask for, right? Like we We we have, you know, there are people out there who talk for a living, and when they stop lying and they start saying the truth and they They don't just say the truth in a passive voice, well, that how did you guys fall for that? But they they take ownership of their role in it. I I just

That's good. I think it's good. And in the split between the America Firsters and the MAGA establishment, I'm sorry, but I think it is better. I think the America Firsters are better for America. Because it you can have no listen though. You can have an actual argument with them because they are saying the things they believe. Right. And so that is a you know, this is, you know, like the the way to combat speech is with more speech. Like you can do the, okay, well, we'll we'll argue about this.

And we will try to persuade Americans because you guys actually believe that shit. And you're gonna go ahead and make your case and we're gonna go ahead and make our case, which is different from what we have seen from so many people who never mean anything they say and are always hiding the football. And that's very, very hard. It's very hard to have that fight.

So this goes to the like no true Scotsman s side of this argument. Like is there I is there actually an earnest America Firster? Like I'm are I'm open to the idea that it's M T G because But like Tucker is not. Okay. Tucker is not. Right. He like we saw his email. in the Dominion lawsuit. Like we saw his texts and emails. Five years ago he said that Donald Trump was a demonic force.

A demonic force is what he said. And then he became his biggest advocate for becoming president of the United States again. And now I'm supposed to take it seriously when he's like, Well There were signs of low character and you know, how could we have how could we have seen this coming? That's like, what do you mean how could we have seen this coming? You fucking said it. You saw it, you knew it, you're not an idiot.

And you decided to place a bet on him because it helped the career and now you're making a different bet. And and tomorrow if he needs to make another different bet, he'll do that. And uh and by the way, the bet he's making now is a pretty pernicious one that's based a lot on

Not like he he will pay lip service like he did in that clip, which is noteworthy to his own mistakes. But like he where he was going with that is he's pivoting it to, you know, creating the creation of some new nonsense conspiracy theory about how, oh well No, it wasn't really Trump. Like he was just manipulated by the industrialists and the licude party.

Donors. Donors and neocons. Okay. Well, uh we are gonna talk more about Tucker later because Tim wants to beat me up over my contention that Don't I don't want to be- Yeah. This is a good topic. Субтитры сделал DimaTorzok I think we should make that the can make people wait. Why should we give away all the good stuff at the top? Okay, fine, we'll do it. Um, but before we do, Sarah. Give us a word from our sponsor. We got an ad from Shopify.

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All right, so uh on Monday I wrote a triad about The 2028, because you know, I I just felt like I was getting overtaken by so much Iran news. And we'll get to the Iran news in in a couple of minutes uh here. I I wanted to write about the uh looming problem of this succession crisis in MAGO going to 2028. And my thesis was that

I think there is still a chance that Trump attempts to run for a third term. I know you guys don't like that and think it's wrong. Uh, but I think it's it's greater than zero chance. Okay. Um, which is notable because it's never been greater than zero. In the post FDR, right. In the post FDR, post constitutional amendment, yeah, it hasn't been greater than zero. Um and but then I made the argument that uh if Don Jr. runs, then I don't think he can be beaten. Uh, and Uh in a primary.

Explained why in a primary. In a primary. So I explained why and then I explained why from his and his family's perspective they might want him to run. And it might make sense from from his perspective and from his incentive structure to run. And uh Anyway, I I I wanted to put that out into the universe just as a marker. And Tim, you said you wanted to clap back on that.

Uh yeah, I don't know about Clapback. I uh during the live stream last night, uh one of the viewers asked me what I thought about it. And I was like, I kinda disagree with them. Let's just do it tomorrow together on T N L. Um so I should say this is Sarah's fault,'cause Sarah baited me with this. Okay. How does Sarah bait you with us? I'd put it in the slack as JBL Bait'cause it people have started including him in the polling. Yeah. And he is polling second or third in just about every geo.

people right now. And beating Rubio on head to head, which I thought was a very interesting fact in the Six one and one against Rubio. Right. No, he's finishing second. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um and so that's that's notable. Uh and I I guess And I uh also agree with the idea that the Trump family might end up assessing in twenty twenty eight that it's best uh have a family member in charge of the party still so they can keep grip.

And even if they lose the election, it's like every month you can keep the grift going, the better. Um, and so I I understand that. I I think my main area of disagreement uh is uh that I think that a potential fallacy of people on the anti Trump side is that we look at Donald Trump and we see somebody that is really fucking

And we see that accurately. We see him to we we think he is very he's ridiculous. It's a ridiculous choice for him to be the president. He was a fake businessman. He's not smart. He doesn't read books. And so if you look at Donald Trump in that from that context, then you look at Donald Trump and Donald Trump Junior and you say, They're kind of the same. Donald Trump Junior is also an idiot who doesn't read books and didn't do any business on his own.

But I I don't think that's how people that like D. C down. Like the Republican Party people. I think they see him as a successful president who's smart in ways and and surprised the establishment and did sorts of things. And they see Junior as kind of his idiot.

And so I do think there were some members of the cult that would be with him, but I think that Junior is as one standard deviation stupider than his dad. You know, like uh we've had an and shidification has come to the Trump family as well. And I think that that's an important st uh I think that's an important gap uh for a certain part of the tr you know, I I just think that like the smart people we were talking about earlier, the rich Lowry, so

You can plausibly get around on Donald Trump. You know, you can tell yourself a story like, Man, look at what I he look at what he did. All his critics are the idiots. He built Trump Tower and blah blah. And it's like you can it you can't even come up with a story really on Dot Junior. He's so dumb.

All right. Can I can I and I'm Sarah, I'll bring you in in a second. I just wanted to respond to that quickly though. Um the first is that uh I I would not underestimate Don Jr. because he was smart enough To understand remember that originally circa twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, the idea was Ivanka would be. And that's why Ivanka inserted herself into the White House and was gonna learn how the government worked and and do policy and try to become popular.

And Don Jr. realized, no, I gotta go on Fox and trigger the libs. Yeah. That's pretty crafty. And he's very good at that. He's like a folk hero to MAGA. He understood this is MAGA is a lifestyle brand and I need to be the mascot for it. And that that is an animal cunning, and he's gotten very good at it. And the second thing is. If he runs, I don't think Vanso or Rubio can. They saw what happened to Ron DeSantis, and I don't think either of them would be willing to risk that happening to them.

And uh so what you would wind up with is you'd wind up with Don Junior. running against somebody like maybe Tucker, who is an outsider, and all of those people, like the Rich Larry's The World and the Wall Street Journal editorial page, they will tell themselves, look, Don Jr., I mean, you know, he's uh he He's an idiot. He'll do what he's told. Like well, you know, we're not gonna take our take a risk with somebody who actually believes all this shit the way Tucker does.

And they'll wind up right back where where they are. I also don't think Don Jr. believes in himself enough. I think Don Jr. is happy to be JD Vance's wing uh wingman. I do think um

That your theory works exceptionally well on paper. Like I think you're making excellent points about especially about the incentives around keeping the the gravy train going. Because you're right, Trump understood and learned a real lesson from As long as I remain the head of this party, as long as I maintain control, even if I'm not the nominee, even if I lost last time, I'd just say I didn't lose. And I keep this gravy train rolling and just the prospect.

of me or in your theory, Don Jr. coming back to the White House is a reason for all the payola to keep going, right? For all the people to protect him. If there is the specter hanging out there of Don Junior

Potentially being president of the United States and they're saying to all their buddies, whether it's the Saudis or whoever, saying, Yeah, these idiot Americans, they'll make Don Jr. What are you talking about? I'm the king. I can shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue. Okay, on paper, makes I do think you have a little bit of a succession problem, which is that I don't think Trump respects Don Jr. or Eric.

Um, and so I do think you get a little bit of like, I love you, but you are not serious people, uh, you know, from from these guys. And I I I would be shocked if Trump thought I think he would be embarrassed and also um I mean the thing is Trump did, you know, we all know Fred Trump gave him a big loan or whatever, but he did build his own empire. He also bankrupted a bunch of things, but like he's the guy. Uh and so he thinks his kids are clowns. And so I just I don't know.

Logan Roy thought his kids were clowns and then kept power until he until he couldn't. Yep. Right. I mean he thinks fans is a clown too. This is what like if you're Trump, you are gonna have to leave one way or the other unless you decide you're gonna try not to leave, right? Which again is a non zero chance. And so if of course he will think it's all about him.

And so what would be the greater monument to himself? Handing off to JD, this weirdo who like is married to a brown lady and uh, you know, and does this weird Catholic stuff? Or hand it off to his namesake and then look at me, we're like the candidate. I think I think it is more gratifying to Trump's ego. In the case of NF. Now, in a perfect world, he wants to die in office, right? He wants to be president and never, never leave on his feet. I think that's what he wants.

It's an interesting theory.

You're dismissive. Sarah's face says full dismissive. I'm I'm not full dismissive. I thought J JBL laid out a really strong case, and I think that there's real merit to the idea that they think this way. I mean Part of it is like have you seen Don Jr. talk? Like he is covered in cocaine. Uh Allegedly. Sure, allegedly covered in cocaine and his eyes are closed. Yeah. And like he's not like his dad. He's been stung by some wasp.

For all Trump's flaws and they are myriad and well picked over on this podcast. Uh he's not he doesn't drink, he doesn't do drugs, like he Don Junior is like a wreck of a person. Totally true. Don't deny it. But again, who would be willing to like J D sitting vice president, if Trump says Don's the guy, Don's running. Is JD gonna say no? Yeah, Marco might this is what I would grant you, JBI. Oh comedy. If he decides to run would present real challenges to the field.

Yeah. And and he would have to have Trump's full like the Logan Roy thing problem would be the first step to overcome. Right. Like he can't have Yes, these are not serious people. It'd have to Daddy would have to be fully on Has to be fully on. I we're thirty minutes into the podcast and nobody's noted one other complicating factor here and I kept letting Sarah do it. I kept trying to let Sarah do it, but there was a poll that came out today that showed Donald Trump hitting

Oh, the bush line. I did wanna What was it, thirty two? Yeah, thirty two. He's hit it a couple times now. Uh this was a good poll. Uh but this is it's happening. He's hit. Below the you know, W line. Is it within the party? I mean'cause again. I no, I this is kind of the point I guess. Like how it depends how far below, et cetera.

But I mean W but that's part of the reason why the W line matters. Because uh you know, and I've said this before on the show, but just it merits mentioning. Like W wasn't invited to the neck to another convention. Right. And so his numbers went down with Republicans. to such a degree that he became toxic even among Republicans. Uh now

that thirty two doesn't quite get you to that level because of the way that things are these days. Like Trump, the independents and the Democrats numbers are way lower and so the uh Republicans numbers are higher a little bit still. So uh but eventually you ca you reach a point where it's hard to pass the baton you And this is why I did mean to mention this, but I meant to do it during the Tucker segment, because you're looking at why does Tucker now saying big, big regret?

Big regrets. And I think it's because Trump is starting to hit all time lows in the polling and they think he's going to go lower. They think there's a a world in which they can pick up uh a significant part of Trump's base. I don't think there is. Maybe I can be wrong. I I raised this with somebody the other day. I and I forget who. Maybe it was with Eggger.

I have a feeling that the the percentage of people who will be like I was super manga and now I'm off of it will be about as big as the percentage of Never Trumpers. Like it you know, they're they'll be real. There will be people like that. And if you p cobble them all together, they'll make a meaningful block, but not meaningful enough to like do anything electorally.

No, there'll be like real Trumpism. There'll be like real MAGA, real America first has never been tried. Yeah. And like that's where Tucker comes in. Right. but I'm saying I don't think that will be I don't think that will be a terribly meaningfully sized group. I think it may be overrepresented at the elite level from like podcasters.

In the same way that Never Trumpers were overrepresented at the the level of magazine writers. I because the the truth is, like his supporters are just there for the cult anyway. They're they're all his supporters are always just backfilling the rationale. They're, you know, they're in it because they hate wars. Then you're in a war and they're like, Yeah, love it when we blow stuff up. That's great. You know, they're in it for for the Tax colour.

This question is a known unknown about the America First. One of the other compelling things you said in the newsletter, uh, which is something I've been noodling over about Tucker as a threat from this like America First side, is Tucker just has this. you know, unending reel of comments that he's made now. Right. Like ta he's talking all the time on these podcasts. Something that

I would ever deal with, you know, w were I to, you know, wanna become mayor of New Orleans or something. Um, you know, you have this long history of stuff where junior is kind of a a blank slate in a little in a lot. Everybody. Yeah, and I do think that what Tucker's doing is positioning right now. It's intentional positioning as America First away from MAGA. But he m is he calibrating it exactly right? You know, is he over torquing? Feels like he might be over torquing.

And like that there's kind of a softer America first critique that would that would represent, I think, a more legitimate threat. Either way, can we agree that JD is screwed? Or no. Maybe not, right? If JD's entire game is preventing other people from getting in. Yeah. Right? If J D can keep other people from getting in then You think he's not screwed? I think he's that screwed. You saw JD was meeting with the Adelsons and Singers.

And it's like what do you th was he telling Miriam about his opposition to the war? It's interesting. Every time it's leaking to reporters it's talking about how he's opposed to the war. But uh but when he's meeting with the big donors who are supportive of the war, I don't I wonder if he's saying the same thing. I d I don't think he's dead because uh of the you can't beat somebody with nobody.

And I just I the the Daviel's case for the reasons that it's laid out on Don Jr. are not that compelling. I think that Don Jr. is more likely to wanna hitch himself to J D. Tucker for the reasons we laid out, Marco for the fact that he's a former neocon.

I just like at the end of the day I think that there's still a chance that J D could be kind of everybody's second choice and be kind of like standing there holding the bag. I I I think he is materially harmed by this war. And I think that it's made his job a much harder. And I think he has demonstrated himself to be not very deft. And so I'm not I wouldn't like bet my mortgage on J D or anything, but I I I don't I wouldn't count him out.

Yeah, I it to the extent that I would count him out, it would have a lot more to do with just his personal lack of Riz capabilities, I would not put past him. Once he realizes that Tucker's trying to outflank him on the America first side and that there's an actual break, he will have no choice but try to consolidate the MAGA establishment.

And he will lean into the war and the reasons for doing it, and maybe he leans into it for the big donor reasons and uh he makes his whole lane on the MAGA establishment, on the Arab parent. That'll be fascinating. Wouldn't be the first time you flipped and changed its whole personality. No. Tell telling the Pope what to do now. True that. All right. Uh Tim, gotta get a word from a sponsor. Well, J D has been uh Ozempric maxing, Osempic maxing lately, in order to try to make

Yeah, to hide the visible signs of wear and tear and aging. Uh there's something that you can do though if you have a kind soul, if you're a good soul, you know, if your insides aren't eating your outsides, like they are for JD Vance. And that's just Moisturizing, baby. Moisturizing. And on this podcast we can

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He wanted to see if I was coming to the White House Correspondents Dinner. Couldn't fucking pay me to go to the White House Correspondents Dinner. But the rest of you guys have a great time. And uh the reason why I'm looking young and handsome is one skin.

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I want to talk about Iran and the war. War's still not going great. Um but before we get to the serious part of this, I'm I'm sorry, we have to find levity in life where we can. Don't apologize. The Iranians fired on a ship. that was attempting to transit the strait. Today the Strait Times reports that that ship thought that they had purchased passage on the strait through the Iranian government using crypto, but they had fallen prey to a crypto scam.

It was like a Nigerian prince left us through. Yes. So crypto scammers are And shipping companies saying, you know, we are the Iranian government send us Two million dollars in World Liberty Financial Coin and we can and this company just paid it. It was like, Okay, great. Oh guys, go ahead. Go ahead. You're you should be good. That makes sense actually, because remember I remember like the calls coming from the ship were like, We you told us we could do this. We you gave us passage.

You're gonna say what was funny about it is that it that they were fired on literally seventeen hours after Trump bleeded that the Iranians had agreed to never close the strait again. Never at the end. It was never gonna be closed again. Not at the We have the best agreement ever. We have a new regime in charge. They're much smarter than the old regime. And this will never be a problem again, thanks to me. And it wasn't even a full twenty-four hours before a ship got fired upon.

We are in a point where so as we're taping, again, things can change by the minute because of the incredible stability at the top of the American governing structure. But uh And Iranian, by the way. We killed all of their leaders and so they it's unclear exactly who knew who we're negotiating with. Their leaders are More stable and predictable than ours.

Not really. They can't even decide if they're going to the to the next uh ceasefire meeting because there's one group that wants to do it before the blockade is over and there's another group that wants to wait until the blockade is done. So but we now we now have word that uh J D Vance's trip back to Pakistan is off because the Iranians have said they're not showing up. This is because of the blockade. They now say, no, you guys end the blockade, then we'll come negotiate.

Sarah, as somebody who loves negotiating and loves playing hardball, who do you think has the the upper hand here? What when you if I just lay this out to you? Uh who do you say, oh well that side has the leverage? I mean, they're chicken and egging right now. So we're saying to the Iranians, You open the strait and then we'll negotiate and they are saying to us

You open the street and then we'll negotiate. Or like, you know, like there is just a this weird standoff. Um, this war is fifty two days. No, we're in the fifty second day of this war. Um Far less than Korea. Yeah. Don't try to kick. And World War One. Yeah. He keeps also he said he would end Vietnam in like just a week and I'm like, Bro, you didn't even go to Vietnam. You had bone spurs. You like didn't even you didn't even fight, but you were gonna end that war? Uh

To your guys' point, there is there are very few serious people in this process. Um we we don't have good negotiators. Uh they the reason that I think the Iranians want J D Vance to negotiate is because they think he doesn't want the war, so they think he's easy to push over. But and they're wrong, um, because he's just gonna do whatever Trump is telling him to do and Trump

Uh, you know, look, I could go through the whole timeline. I could go through all of the ways in which it's gone from uh'cause by I just want to start with this. The straight was open when this war started. Was that right? Open. It was open. It was governed by international law. Now the Iranians and us are in a standoff over it. It is the key to whether or not we will continue negotiations, uh and we're both saying, no, you do it first. No, you do it first.

And right now, because they don't like right now, that's why they like they were supposed to go. They were getting on a plane and instead they got pulled off because the Iranians say, Nope, not until you open it. And that's where we are. That's where things currently stand. Markets drop. Oil spikes.

Well, Trump had threatened again to go and do genocide. So again, it does seem like we're the ones who keep blinking. Yeah, no, I I would I'm gonna answer your question. I don't I'm not ready to choose a side on who has more unstable leadership right now because we have a single unstable person who you know can't be trusted to do anything and they're I

know navigating the post-transition phase. We don't even actually know if the Ayatollah is alive, but I will answer your question of who uh to in Trump's parlance has the card. And It's like obviously Iran. I I I mean I I dr uh like Trump is more interested in a deal with them. Just like looking at you know go look going back to the Sarah likes to do deals, you know, if you're trying to negotiate with somebody and, you know, over A contract.

And you know, one side was like, I really want I really want this contract, or this contract. And other side's like, Oh, I can only do it for a hundred grand and they're like, Oh, but I was I sh I'm worth two hundred grand. But it's like okay, fine and they're like, Okay. You know, like they like J D and Trump want off. Like they won off.

They want to face saving exit badly. I think the Iranians would like to not be bombed anymore too. But but like that I think that the you can just it is palpable how much Trump wants to get out of it. And so I you know, but the the problem is that Even surrender the right way.

This is this is c Paul Corgman said this over the weekend. He couldn't even surrender, right? Like he had this thing, he got a ceasefire, and he fucked up the ceasefire and fuck because he was antagonized it really And every day it goes on it gets worse for America.

Yeah, but here's the the reason I didn't quite answer it the way I'm not willing to say the Iranians because here's the thing Trump could just start dropping bombs. Like at the end of the day, we still do have an enormous arsenal and we are held back entirely by the fact that there's not a lot of public support for Trump to just end a civilization. Um but if we do have that, uh and that is what Trump thinks, right? And Trump's negotiating P brain, he's like, we have the bigger box.

We will make we will hurt you and you can't hurt us. The problem is is that Trump knows there's no public appetite. And so he is constrained by saber rattling about how big our bombs are and not being able to actually do anything about it. But if he gets backed into a corner, like the card he plays is the bomb card. Yeah, but it's what objective? Like we e what is even his ob what are even his ejective anymore?

Well, at this point I think it's just opening the strait. It would be like eliminating Iran as a country so that they have zero power, they're obliterated, and we take control of the strait. was open before the war attacked your flex earlier. So I yeah, sure. I mean I guess that's true. Uh but I I I don't know that Trump wants to do that really, and I think that there are probably some on the hard line Iranian side that wouldn't mind.

And that was the bit what was JBL and you were you were uh on this. What was the big like F T takeout before the war started? Was that there were some factions within the Iranian regime that was that were like, We're in a moment of weakness right now and like the more you bomb us, the more we can put a stranglehold on power. Like there'll be a lot of suffering of the Iranian people, but they don't live in a liberal democracy. They don't care about the suffering of their people.

And so it's like, okay, well, we can make you hurt more. It's and the situ it's just such a clut it's like an unbelievable cluster. And the thing that that demonstrates how bad it is. As as you can there isn't like have you heard anybody give a coherent case for what we're doing. And it is, I try really hard to like go out and find and find it. No nukes, Tim. No nukes. It's not out.

You know, I mean anytime anybody is in any situation where they're pressed at all to say something beyond like the top line talking point about Iranians being bad. Like there's they've got nothing. And poor Piers Morgan can't find people to fill the slots. I had my most boring Piers Morgan episode ever. He can't even find anybody to go in there and defend the war. It's really too bad. Let's do cash. Is that are we gonna do cash as candy?

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That's bowl and branch, B-O-L-L-A-N-D-Branch.com slash next level, code next level to unlock 15% off. Exclusions apply. So uh Cash, Tim, you did uh just a fantastic solo take over the weekend on the uh and by the way, also if I could just point a privilege, your show last Friday. Chef's kiss. One of the best ever.

That's all. Um so uh Cash fatel in the Atlantic, uh accused of A little bit of light inebriation on the job and uh he responded by filing a how mu two hundred fifty million dollar lawsuit, defamation suit against uh Which I assume is kind of like the Trump defamation suit over the drawing that he filed against the Wall Street Journal. Um I don't even know how to talk about this. So I just toss it open to the floor. Does nobody care?

Because this is another like everyone like, well, is MAGA lose you know, is is MAGA gonna punish him for this or punish him for that? Does does nobody who voted for Donald Trump care that the guy who's in charge of the FBI Is this fucking drunk hobbit?

So here's what's in this piece that I thought was so funny. Um, but of course you're right. No, Donald Trump has populated his entire cabinet with incredibly incompetent people. This is the world we're living in. And as his term goes on, we get to see more evidence of how incompetent they are. Now, in this one though, this opens with, Cash can't get into his computer. He's locked out of his computer.

which sends him into a spiralling panic that he has been tweet fired, as we have seen Trump do too many of people. And so he thinks he's been fired and that's why he's locked out of his computer. So he hits the panic button. And this is why the story gets out to everybody because he's freaking out, being like, Did am I fired? Did he lock me out? It turns out it's just a glitch in the system.

He was not fired but It's just like imagine the fact that I couldn't get into my Riverside account one day and rather than getting on to Slack, I get on my phone and I call Tommy Vitor and I'm like, Sarah's fired me, that bitch. That bitch, I'm out. I'm gonna burn everything down. Then I start calling other colleagues and be like, we gotta get out of here. They're coming for us. They're looking around. And it's like, no, bro, you act you accidentally did the at sign instead of the and percent.

On your password. That's right. You didn't need to you didn't need to pull out go on panic mode. That's right. And so what we know about Cash Patel is he thinks he's gonna be fired at any minute. Based on people that they're talking to, there's evidence that he should be paranoid that maybe he's gonna be fired any minute. And you know, maybe he's gonna be fired because he drinks, or maybe he drinks because he's gonna get fired. We don't know what goes on in the little brain of Cash Patel.

We do know that all of these serious people at the FBI, even ones who are sort of pro Trump,

are watching this idiot run the agency like an idiot and they've all started talking is basically what's happening. And norm normally they wouldn't. Um and they would respect their leader. But I my guess is is that when you've got a leader who's a clown Uh and breaks protocol all the time, uses private jets and taxpayer dollars to fly around, is gets drunk everywhere.'Cause there's a lot of this like he's flying to Vegas to some place called the Poodle Room. The poodle run.

The poodle room. Never been to the poodle room. Me neither. I Googled it. Looks nice. It's not really my cup of tea. It's a little it's a little sh for me. It's the fountain blue. Imagine being the FBI director though and just in Vegas and all over DC just getting annihilated drunk so that all kinds of people can talk to people on the record. And I've already talked about this twice, but I just I can't get past.

It is the SWAT team. Allegedly. I I imagine allegedly, imagine how hammered you have to And it's like I take the podcast every day. You guys know I went out to Jazz Fest says the next week. Went out to Jazz Fest Thursday night. Friday I have to take the pod at nine. I don't show up. Ten o'clock I don't show up, you call me, no answer. Eleven I don't show up, you call me, no answer, twelve.

Two o'clock, you're like, fine, we're gonna call the local New Orleans PD and they bang down my door and I'm just laying there in a dark room. And so everybody be like, We I we need a Tim needs a break. From the pod. Like this, and and that's my job, a podcast host. He's running the FBI. Yeah. He's running the FBI and they had to send allegedly a SWAT team in to wake him up'cause he got so hammered. I guess beyond imagination. Do you think they'll offer him Secretary of Labour?

To leave the FBI. This is another thing that was uh surfaced this week that Pam Bondi was offered labor. And uh and the day after that came out, the Secretary of Labor, Lloyd Chau Chavez de Remer, uh She resigned. That's great. Bill has been on an impeachment kick. And I Bill's argument is that just look at things and judge them for what they are.

America will have to go through another two years of this after the November elections. Uh, is that sustainable for the American government? How much damage could really be done to the country? Uh He should be impeached and removed from office. And part of me feels like this is like when Bill was saying Joe Biden shouldn't be the nominee.

Like you know, an eye with a light about it. Come on, man. He's not gonna stuff so I don't I don't dismiss it lightly. I don't know. I've been wrestling a lot with this and it's stories like this stuff. As much as anything else that made me think God, how lucky are we that we haven't had a a giant Iranian domestic terrorist attack? Right, with the with this guy running the FBI. Yeah. Totally. I mean and that is it. I d I think there I think the there's a couple things. One

It depends on how many seats the Democrats pick up and n understand that because there's just fewer that they can pick up this time around, um, there's probably a ceiling on how much they can do. But if they win the Senate, they win the House by a ton, and if something terrible Because of Trump.

But like the problem is is the Republicans at this moment, they are still standing with him in Congress. They won't do anything about it. And so until you know that Republicans are gonna they will act, doesn't matter what Democrat. Yeah, I have two thoughts on this. I just related to the elections. Um I I I feel like in the conventional wisdom sphere there's a shift from man, the Senate is ungettable from the Democrats.

to now kind of this weird confidence that like things are so bad that the Democrats are gonna win the Senate. I'm like, and then a poll came out in Ohio yesterday that had John Houston beating Sherry Brown by three. Like there's not really a In theory there's a path to winning the Senate without Ohio. Still actually unlikely.

It's quite unlikely. Yeah. And so like when the Senate stuff and so right, and so it's like, okay, well th this conversation is moot if John Thune is the Senate majority leader. Um, you know, so uh so part of it is that and part of that is Everybody who cares about this needs to get very serious about Ohio and Iowa and Texas and Florida and Nebraska and Alaska. And Michigan. Yeah, and Michigan's a defense. I was talking about the out the offense stretch states, but yeah, Michigan too. Um

Nothing wrong with dancing. Dancing's great. Dancing brings joy to people's lives. Uh and so that's part of it. Uh and then um the the the other part is like even if they take What the impeachment like there's a there's an argument for impeachment that's just like he should just be out, we should get everybody on the record. The the more compelling one for me is like, can you get information

That you could center an impeachment on, right? And like, is there something about the Iran War r related to Jared?

or B B in the situation room or it's uh Uderubi's family. Like is there a fa oh the UAE uh deal with the payoff to his family you could center an impeachment on And if the if the war continues and if things are spiraling into a stagflation situation economically, you can kind of make the case to people it's like he needs to be impeached and removed'cause he got us into the stupid war because

his family was bribed by such and such and we have the documents and now everybody's suffering and that probably still doesn't work, but then it's at least like Okay, this is about a thing. Like this is not and this is kind of how I felt about the shutdowns, right? Like the shutdowns were both about a thing. Like the first one was about healthcare extensions and people's healthcare premiums going up, and then the second one was about ice killing.

And wearing masks in the streets. And it's like we don't we we wanna fix those things. So impeachment that's like also about a thing. I I I would be compelled by more than kind of just like uh raging against the dying of the lights up impeachment, which I which would appeal to me personally. I just I don't know that I am very, very skeptical that there is anything

that impeachment could be about, which is more incontrovertible than a guy attempting a coup on video. Like five minutes before you know what I'm saying? Like they attempted a coup on video three days before they did the impeachment and people they couldn't do it. And so Counterpoint that was the only time in history that uh senators of a member of their own party have voted to convict their own president. Just not enough. But there were seven of the republic you know

I just I don't think that there would be enough. And and the potential downside here is and then we'll get out of here. Um uh something Sarah's talked about a lot when traveling The rally round there. So I'm what do you think of that as a potential downside? Is it something you worry about? I worry. Yeah, I mean I I just think like you right now Trump is spiraling out of control and it this is I guess it in a little bit this is the stove touching conversation.

Which is do you let Trump like they could try and then they could crystallize and make the fight about again, Dems versus Republic. Just nice, comfortable territory for them. Whereas right now Trump is fighting with his own people, right? They are coming for him. They're abandoning him. I don't know why you get in the way of that. Just as a strategic matter. And like only if you thought Yeah.

But if you definitely that would be you'd have to definitely think you could get a conviction to do it. You don't go into another impeachment without certainty that you get a conviction. Or this time, instead of Liz Cheney playing the role of Liz Cheney, you have Lauren Boebert, Thomas Massey. And it's like you go into it with Like a couple of magas on uh committee. At least there's some that's Not nothing.

All right, well, uh we will see. Everybody, uh hit like, hit subscribe, go to the bulwark dot com slash events. Tickets are on sale for our swing through San Diego. Very classy city and Los Angeles coming up. Sarah, Tim, Sam, other fantastic people. We'll see you there. I