On October 12, 1990, Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks published his first memo to clients. In the decades since, he has periodically released memos reflecting his viewpoint on the investment landscape, as well as more general business insights. On this podcast we'll hear the latest memos by Howard, released in tandem with or shortly after their publication.
In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highl...
In this episode of The Memo, Howard Marks addresses investor concerns about credit spreads, particularly in high-yield bonds. He discusses whether current spreads are sufficient to offset potential credit losses, considering historical data and the impact of central bank interventions. Marks also compares credit to equities, arguing that credit offers a more attractive risk-adjusted return despite narrow spreads, and touches on the dynamics of private credit, highlighting both its potential and inherent risks.
In the latest episode of Behind the Memo , Howard discusses his recent memo, On Bubble Watch, which revisits a subject he first wrote about 25 years ago. He delves into the investor psychology that underpins a market bubble, and assesses the danger of letting excitement and fear of missing out override risk aversion. You can listen to or read the Memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch )....
On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com , calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howa...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/d...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the economic facts of life, as he examines the workings of free markets and what happens when they’re tampered with. He considers what “price-gouging” actually means and how rents should be set. He ultimately argues that the laws of economics shouldn’t be overridden — even when it’s politically advantageous to do so – because of the loss to society. You can read the memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/shall-we-repeal-the...
In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by Morgan Housel, the bestselling author and partner at the Collaborative Fund. They discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo “The Impact of Debt,” which was inspired by Morgan’s article “How I Think About Debt.” They explore the relationship between leverage and longevity, the nature of risk, and the eternal relevance of Voltaire’s famous saying: “History doesn’t repeat itself. Man always does.” You can listen to or read the Memo...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the reasons for the recent market volatility using one of finance’s classic metaphors: Mr. Market, the figure Benjamin Graham created in 1949 to explain the erratic nature of financial markets. Howard pulls together some of his best writing on investor psychology from the past three decades, adds some of his favorite investing cartoons, and offers a few new observations. He suggests that Mr. Market’s lessons about the behavior of markets are as rel...
In this episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by two special guests: Oaktree cofounder Bruce Karsh and the chess Grandmaster Maurice Ashley. In a wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Howard’s recent memo "The Indispensability of Risk" as well as the inspiration for that memo: Maurice’s Wall Street Journal article, "Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice." They consider the many parallels between chess and investing, including the lesson that not taking enough risk may be ...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the importance of avoiding expressions of absolute certainty when operating in fields subject to randomness and human emotion, like politics, economics, and investing. He suggests that it’s better to have humility and acknowledge that the smartest thing to say is often “I don’t know.” You can read the memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty )....
In a special edition of The Insight: Conversations, you’ll hear excerpts from multiple sessions held during Oaktree’s recent biannual client conference. Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks does a deep dive into his sea change thesis, members of Oaktree’s Global Credit team examine the most significant trends impacting the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets, and Oaktree’s Opportunistic Credit team explores key themes reshaping today’s restructuring environment....
Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks ( https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmarksbook/ ) joined the In Good Company podcast with Nicolai Tangen (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolai-tangen/). They discussed Howard's investment philosophy, risk management, and how to determine the quality of a decision....
In his latest memo, Howard Marks examines the relationship between leverage and survivability, taking inspiration from a recent Collaborative Fund post by Morgan Housel. Howard explains why determining the appropriate amount of leverage should be about optimization, not maximization. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-impact-of-debt)....
Where are we in the market cycle? Why is it healthy to be uncertain? And what does it mean to actually “be opportunistic”? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Armen Panossian (Co-CEO), and David Rosenberg (Head of Liquid Performing Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024: Unusually Uncertain.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks considers what chess can teach investors about the paradox of risk-taking. Drawing on insights from a recent Wall Street Journal article (https://www.wsj.com/sports/chess-teaches-the-power-of-sacrifice-221db7b7) by chess grandmaster Maurice Ashley, Howard explains why not taking enough risk may be one of the riskiest strategies of all. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-indispensability-of-risk)....
In his 2020 memo You Bet! , Howard Marks explained what it means to “think in bets,” as he discussed the many parallels between investing and games of chance. Now you can listen to You Bet!, the first release from The Memo by Howard Marks: The Archive . We’ve received many requests for an audio library of the memos that Howard Marks has published over the last 34 years, so we’re going to begin building this archive by releasing audio versions of some of Howard’s most popular memos. To ...
In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by journalist and financial historian Edward Chancellor to discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo, Easy Money, which was inspired by Edward’s book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. They explore the history of interest rates, the profound impact they’ve had on financial markets, and the potential dangers of keeping them too low. You can listen to "Easy Money" in the prior episode in this feed....
Howard Marks analyzes the impact of easy money policies, drawing on financial history and Edward Chancellor's work, arguing that a return to ultra-low interest rates is unlikely. He explores how low rates distort investor behavior, encourage risk-taking, and create economic imbalances, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and preparing for a different investment environment. The memo suggests that higher, more natural interest rates are necessary for a healthy economy.
What is a “normal” investment environment? What might a recession in 2024 mean for liquid credit? What’s happening in life sciences lending today? Find out by listening to the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations with Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), David Rosenberg (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Aman Kumar (Co-Portfolio Manager, Life Sciences Lending). They discuss topics from the December edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters and c...
Special guest Annie Duke (former professional poker player, best-selling author) joins Howard Marks to discuss ideas from her book Thinking in Bets and Howard’s memo You Bet! They explore luck, decision quality, uncertainty, and more in this special episode of The Insight: Conversations.
Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) and Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) discuss topics related to Howard’s latest memo, Further Thoughts on Sea Change, and Oaktree’s recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2023 in this crossover episode of The Insight: Conversations and Behind the Memo. They consider the implications of the potential sea change reshaping the investment environment, the tail risks building in today’s markets, and what it means to be in a full return world....
In his latest memo, Howard Marks provides a follow-up to Sea Change (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change), his thought-provoking memo published in December 2022. He argues that the trends he highlighted in the original memo collectively represent a sweeping alteration of the investment environment that calls for significant capital reallocation. Further Thoughts on Sea Change was originally sent exclusively to Oaktree clients on May 30, 2023. All m...
How have credit investors been successfully navigating the volatile interest rate environment? Which sectors currently look attractive to opportunistic credit investors? What are some of the major misconceptions about today’s commercial real estate market? In this episode of The Insight: Conversations, Wayne Dahl (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Robert O’Leary (Portfolio Manager, Global Opportunities), and Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income) disc...
Howard Marks discusses his memo, "Fewer Losers, or More Winners," exploring the balance between offense and defense in investing. Using tennis as an analogy, Marks highlights the importance of understanding one's skill level and risk tolerance to determine whether to focus on avoiding losers or seeking more winners. He emphasizes that there's no universally correct answer, but it's a fundamental question every investor should consider.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the essential choice in both investing and sports: should you go for more winners or try to eliminate losers? That is, should you emphasize aggressiveness or defensiveness? This is a key decision that every investor has to make thoughtfully, and the answer can be different for each person. The memo is read by LJ Ganser. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/fewer-losers-or-more-winners)....
Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt). They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in E...
Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Megan Messina (Head of CLO Capital Markets) discuss topics from the 2Q2023 Performing Credit Quarterly . They consider the current tug-of war between fiscal and monetary policy, opportunities in credit, and what many investors are getting wrong about today’s CLO market.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses five market calls he’s made during his career. He argues that investors seeking to take the temperature of the market should focus on understanding prevailing market psychology and the nature of cycles. Just as importantly, they should learn to control their own emotions and have the humility to know when not to make a call. The memo is read by LJ Ganser. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/taking-th...
David Rosenberg, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree’s U.S. and Global High Yield strategies, and Howard Marks discuss topics from the June 2023 edition of The Roundup . They consider the evolution of the high yield bond market, investor optimism and why this time might actually be different in financial markets.
Oaktree Investment Risk Officer Wayne Dahl explains why economic statistics can tell conflicting stories and what this means for credit investors trying to make sense of today’s noisy data.
