On October 12, 1990, Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks published his first memo to clients. In the decades since, he has periodically released memos reflecting his viewpoint on the investment landscape, as well as more general business insights. On this podcast we'll hear the latest memos by Howard, released in tandem with or shortly after their publication.
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This episode explores the transformative journey of the sub-investment grade credit market, from its origins in the 1970s to the rapid expansion of direct lending post-GFC. Howard Marks highlights how direct lending's growth mirrors historical investment fads, now facing headwinds from AI's impact on software debt and the consequences of rising interest rates for private equity. He draws insights from the 1929 crash, emphasizing human nature's role in market cycles, and outlines Oaktree's disciplined approach to navigating these complex credit environments.
Howard Marks shares insights from Oaktree's 2026 client conference, discussing the historical evolution of private and liquid credit markets and the challenges of direct lending becoming mainstream. He elaborates on identifying market mispricings, cautioning against 'loved' popular investments, and highlights the dangers of excessive leverage. Marks also emphasizes the critical role of strong leadership and constructive organizational culture in maximizing asset value and navigating the emotional aspects of market cycles.
In his latest memo – occasioned by massive changes he cites in just the 11 weeks since the last one – Howard Marks revisits the subject of AI, providing his observations on its essence and how it differs from previous technological innovations. He highlights AI’s immense power, speed, and autonomy; its limitations; and its potential implications for investing. He expresses conviction that AI is far from a fad, but also that investors must view its transformational potential against an assessment...
This memo addresses the pervasive question of an AI bubble, examining historical patterns of market manias driven by revolutionary technologies and identifying both similarities and unique aspects of AI. Marks discusses how speculative investment, even in bubbles, can accelerate technological progress by funding necessary infrastructure, but often at the cost of significant investor losses, especially when leveraged with debt. He concludes that while AI holds immense potential, the vast unknowns necessitate a moderate, selective, and prudent investment strategy to navigate its unpredictable future.
Howard Marks uses the metaphor "cockroaches in the coal mine" to highlight recent credit defaults and alleged frauds, particularly in the private credit market. He explains that while these aren't systemic, they're systematic, driven by investor overconfidence and a lowering of lending standards during prosperous times. The episode emphasizes the need for prudence and superior credit analysis, warning that the "worst of loans are made in the best of times."
In his latest memo, Howard Marks offers observations based on his meeting with the board, consultant, and senior staff of a state pension fund. Howard explores the key topics covered during the session, including determining an appropriate risk posture, selecting an investment approach, and assessing performance. While these decisions are challenging, the board and its consultant applied the only reasonable method: asking the right questions and pursuing rational conclusions. You can read the me...
In a fireside chat celebrating 35 years of his influential memos, legendary investor Howard Marks delves into his writing journey, from the initial lack of response to the impact of 'bubble.com.' He highlights his enduring investment philosophy, emphasizing contrarianism, risk management, the role of investor psychology, and the critical importance of intellectual humility in navigating market extremes and unprecedented events like the GFC and COVID-19. Marks also addresses the current market's frothy valuations and the necessary adjustments to a post-'Sea Change' interest rate environment.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks sets forth the essence of value and price, as well as the critical relationship between the two. He posits that value exerts a ‘‘magnetic’’ influence on price, meaning the relationship of price to value should be expected to strongly influence investment performance in the long run, with high valuations presaging low subsequent returns, and vice versa. In the context of today’s elevated U.S. equity valuations and widespread investor optimism, he advises us to con...
Howard Marks discusses how governmental intervention attempts to override fundamental economic laws often lead to worse outcomes than free markets. Using examples like rent control, California's fire insurance crisis, and tariffs, he illustrates the negative consequences of controlling prices or restricting trade. The memo also touches on the U.S. fiscal deficit and the looming Social Security insolvency, highlighting political inaction in addressing these economic realities.
In celebration of Oaktree’s 30th anniversary on April 10, 2025, cofounders Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Bruce Karsh (Co-Chairman and Chief Investment Officer), and Sheldon Stone (Principal and Co-Portfolio Manager, High Yield Bonds) held a fireside chat for employees where they shared stories about Oaktree’s origins and the firm’s journey over the last three decades. We’re excited to share an excerpt from their conversation.
In his latest memo, Howard discusses how the recent events surrounding tariffs can have a seismic but unpredictable impact on the global economy. Seismic in that they reflect a fundamental undoing of longstanding norms, and unpredictable in that tariffs would bring untold second- and third-order consequences. He emphasizes that there is no foreknowledge here, with forecasts even less likely to be accurate than usual. Howard considers the response of the financial markets, highlighting the key qu...
In this episode of The Memo, Howard Marks addresses investor concerns about credit spreads, particularly in high-yield bonds. He discusses whether current spreads are sufficient to offset potential credit losses, considering historical data and the impact of central bank interventions. Marks also compares credit to equities, arguing that credit offers a more attractive risk-adjusted return despite narrow spreads, and touches on the dynamics of private credit, highlighting both its potential and inherent risks.
In the latest episode of Behind the Memo , Howard discusses his recent memo, On Bubble Watch, which revisits a subject he first wrote about 25 years ago. He delves into the investor psychology that underpins a market bubble, and assesses the danger of letting excitement and fear of missing out override risk aversion. You can listen to or read the Memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch )....
On January 2, 2000, Howard Marks published his first memo to garner any reader response, bubble.com , calling attention to excesses he detected in the market for tech and internet stocks. His newest memo revisits the subject of bubbles. Howard expresses his view that they’re more a state of mind than a quantitative calculation and describes bubble thinking as irrational, often underlaid by a widespread belief that ‘‘this time is different.’’ Rather than opining on whether we’re in a bubble, Howa...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks outlines the need to base asset allocation decisions around an established risk target. He describes the fundamental differences between ownership and debt, as well as the importance of finding the combination of the two that gets an investor’s portfolio to the desired position on the risk/return continuum. Finally, he expands on the increased utility of debt investments in today’s portfolios. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/defaul...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the economic facts of life, as he examines the workings of free markets and what happens when they’re tampered with. He considers what “price-gouging” actually means and how rents should be set. He ultimately argues that the laws of economics shouldn’t be overridden — even when it’s politically advantageous to do so – because of the loss to society. You can read the memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/shall-we-repeal-the...
In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by Morgan Housel, the bestselling author and partner at the Collaborative Fund. They discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo “The Impact of Debt,” which was inspired by Morgan’s article “How I Think About Debt.” They explore the relationship between leverage and longevity, the nature of risk, and the eternal relevance of Voltaire’s famous saying: “History doesn’t repeat itself. Man always does.” You can listen to or read the Memo...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the reasons for the recent market volatility using one of finance’s classic metaphors: Mr. Market, the figure Benjamin Graham created in 1949 to explain the erratic nature of financial markets. Howard pulls together some of his best writing on investor psychology from the past three decades, adds some of his favorite investing cartoons, and offers a few new observations. He suggests that Mr. Market’s lessons about the behavior of markets are as relevant...
In this episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by two special guests: Oaktree cofounder Bruce Karsh and the chess Grandmaster Maurice Ashley. In a wide-ranging conversation, they discuss Howard’s recent memo "The Indispensability of Risk" as well as the inspiration for that memo: Maurice’s Wall Street Journal article, "Chess Teaches the Power of Sacrifice." They consider the many parallels between chess and investing, including the lesson that not taking enough risk may be one of the...
In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the importance of avoiding expressions of absolute certainty when operating in fields subject to randomness and human emotion, like politics, economics, and investing. He suggests that it’s better to have humility and acknowledge that the smartest thing to say is often “I don’t know.” You can read the memo here ( https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty )....
In a special edition of The Insight: Conversations, you’ll hear excerpts from multiple sessions held during Oaktree’s recent biannual client conference. Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks does a deep dive into his sea change thesis, members of Oaktree’s Global Credit team examine the most significant trends impacting the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets, and Oaktree’s Opportunistic Credit team explores key themes reshaping today’s restructuring environment.
Oaktree Co-Chairman Howard Marks ( https://www.linkedin.com/in/howardmarksbook/ ) joined the In Good Company podcast with Nicolai Tangen (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolai-tangen/). They discussed Howard's investment philosophy, risk management, and how to determine the quality of a decision.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks examines the relationship between leverage and survivability, taking inspiration from a recent Collaborative Fund post by Morgan Housel. Howard explains why determining the appropriate amount of leverage should be about optimization, not maximization. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-impact-of-debt).
Where are we in the market cycle? Why is it healthy to be uncertain? And what does it mean to actually “be opportunistic”? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Armen Panossian (Co-CEO), and David Rosenberg (Head of Liquid Performing Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024: Unusually Uncertain.
In his latest memo, Howard Marks considers what chess can teach investors about the paradox of risk-taking. Drawing on insights from a recent Wall Street Journal article (https://www.wsj.com/sports/chess-teaches-the-power-of-sacrifice-221db7b7) by chess grandmaster Maurice Ashley, Howard explains why not taking enough risk may be one of the riskiest strategies of all. You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-indispensability-of-risk)....
In his 2020 memo You Bet! , Howard Marks explained what it means to “think in bets,” as he discussed the many parallels between investing and games of chance. Now you can listen to You Bet!, the first release from The Memo by Howard Marks: The Archive . We’ve received many requests for an audio library of the memos that Howard Marks has published over the last 34 years, so we’re going to begin building this archive by releasing audio versions of some of Howard’s most popular memos. To hear more ...
In this special episode of Behind the Memo, Howard Marks is joined by journalist and financial historian Edward Chancellor to discuss ideas from Howard’s recent memo, Easy Money, which was inspired by Edward’s book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest. They explore the history of interest rates, the profound impact they’ve had on financial markets, and the potential dangers of keeping them too low. You can listen to "Easy Money" in the prior episode in this feed....
Howard Marks analyzes the impact of easy money policies, drawing on financial history and Edward Chancellor's work, arguing that a return to ultra-low interest rates is unlikely. He explores how low rates distort investor behavior, encourage risk-taking, and create economic imbalances, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and preparing for a different investment environment. The memo suggests that higher, more natural interest rates are necessary for a healthy economy.
What is a “normal” investment environment? What might a recession in 2024 mean for liquid credit? What’s happening in life sciences lending today? Find out by listening to the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations with Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), David Rosenberg (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Aman Kumar (Co-Portfolio Manager, Life Sciences Lending). They discuss topics from the December edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters and consider what in...
Special guest Annie Duke (former professional poker player, best-selling author) joins Howard Marks to discuss ideas from her book Thinking in Bets and Howard’s memo You Bet! They explore luck, decision quality, uncertainty, and more in this special episode of The Insight: Conversations.
