Forecasting with Out-Liars

In this Short Talk episode John Mink joins Judith Germain to discuss forecasting challenges, sharing lessons from a career navigating supply chain complexities. John encourages curiosity, empathy and taking responsibility for one's cultural impact, believing small positive actions can help break cycles of blame and barrier-building between teams.

Key Takeaways

• Culture is critical for accurate forecasting and good business outcomes. Blame culture leads to poor results.
• Assumptions must be aligned before forecasting. Understand market conditions and business goals first.
• Incentives should consider overall business health - revenue, costs, cash flow, customer service. Not just forecast accuracy.
• Bias creeps in when forecast tied too closely to individual incentives. Need holistic view.
• Methodical approach: agree on assumptions, align on goals, unbiased data inputs.

In this conversation John stresses aligning all forecasters on key assumptions like market conditions before inputting individual forecasts, to establish a shared baseline and prevent wasted arguing.

John Mink is a Supply Chain Executive.

You can find out more about our guest and today's episode in this Maverick Paradox Magazine article here.

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Judith's book: The Maverick Paradox: The Secret Power Behind Successful Leaders. 

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• The Maverick Paradox Magazine - themaverickparadox.com
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