Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market (12:11) – International Market Over-performance (13:11) – Germany and the Future (22:03) - ...What a...
Feb 28, 2025•35 min•Season 1Ep. 261
Jacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China’s announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense. -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Intro ...
Feb 25, 2025•57 min•Season 1Ep. 260
Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) – Gravity of the moment (12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics? (19:10) – Turkey & the Black ...
Feb 21, 2025•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 259
Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of t...
Feb 18, 2025•1 hr 31 min•Season 1Ep. 258
A candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity. Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:32) - The Origins and Controve...
Feb 14, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 257
Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Snow in the gulf (5:30) – Wea...
Feb 11, 2025•41 min•Season 1Ep. 256
-- Timestamps: (00:07) - Intro (00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet (17:18) - Bitcoin (25:00) - Debt (32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China (41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks (53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiograph...
Feb 07, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 255
Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - The Evening Special (03:33) - Unexpected Developments (18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations (28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs (36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position (49:39) - The...
Feb 04, 2025•1 hr 33 min•Season 1Ep. 254
Jacob welcomes the always insightful and provocative Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future onto the show to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the evolution of the multipolar geopolitical system. Jacek makes his case that a systemic, global war has already begun – and warns the U.S. what will happen if it indulges in hubris and pushes too hard on President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:01) - Ukraine Updates - Will Russia negotiate? (11:09) - Will Russia ne...
Feb 03, 2025•50 min•Season 1Ep. 253
Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia’s stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view o...
Jan 31, 2025•56 min•Season 1Ep. 252
Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additiona...
Jan 25, 2025•22 min•Season 1Ep. 251
Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also disse...
Jan 17, 2025•58 min•Season 1Ep. 250
Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is di...
Jan 14, 2025•1 hr 13 min•Season 1Ep. 249
Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administrati...
Jan 10, 2025•59 min•Season 1Ep. 248
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels (17:10) – Turkey + Qatar (27:20) – Kurds (37:40) – Iran and the Houthis (43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt (50:55) - The death of Islamism -- Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/ Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newslette...
Dec 16, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 247
Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal). -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:01) – CI Club (05:30) – US and Global Markets (26:33) - France and Europe (35:30) – Middle East (49:13) – South Korea -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe ...
Dec 13, 2024•57 min•Season 1Ep. 246
Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:54) - Global Ice Trade (03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies (18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Model...
Nov 15, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 245
While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:33) - Japan 101 (08:07...
Nov 11, 2024•48 min•Season 1Ep. 244
Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also ...
Nov 08, 2024•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 243
Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump’s agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States. -- Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan? 15:25 – Domestic agenda 40:40 – US-China Relations 1:03:40 – Mexico 1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU 1:27:51 – MENA/Iran 1:40:25 – Fut...
Nov 07, 2024•2 hr 21 min•Season 1Ep. 243
Description (replace me) -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America 08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges 19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking 22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained 31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk 44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift 45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook 56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts -- Referenced in the Show: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf https:...
Nov 03, 2024•56 min•Season 1Ep. 242
The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. -- Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications 04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions 10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynam...
Nov 01, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 241
Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani 00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline 00:31 - Human P...
Oct 22, 2024•43 min•Season 1Ep. 240
Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlig...
Oct 18, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 239
Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan. -- Timestamps: 00:01 - Intro 00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 2023 03:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade 09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Suf...
Oct 11, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 238
Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, parti...
Oct 04, 2024•56 min•Season 1Ep. 237
Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Ira...
Oct 02, 2024•50 min•Season 1Ep. 236
Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy. -- Timestamps : 00:01 - Introductory Remarks 00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel 01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goa...
Oct 01, 2024•1 hr 48 min•Season 1Ep. 235
Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:14) - Who was Fujimori (09:37) – Japan and Peru (14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori (28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos (...
Sep 30, 2024•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 234
Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA 28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil 30:00 – China -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/w...
Sep 27, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 233
