Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:22) - Paulo’s view (13:05) – US elections (19:32) – Oil (33:08)– China (41:20) – Grains (51:10) – Brazil -- Referenced in the Show: Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the N...
Sep 23, 2024•1 hr 11 min•Season 1Ep. 232
Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:05-10:00) – Fed (09:10) – BIOSECURE Act (22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel (42:51) – Mexico’s judicial refo...
Sep 20, 2024•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 231
Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) – Fargo (19:50) – Briancon (30:00) – Brazil vs X -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap CI Site: cognitive.investments Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded i...
Sep 07, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 230
Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration (06:30) - Needs v. realities (12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines? (22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty (33:55) – Pitfalls...
Sep 04, 2024•53 min•Season 1Ep. 229
John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit t...
Aug 28, 2024•35 min•Season 1Ep. 228
Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geo...
Aug 23, 2024•45 min•Season 1Ep. 227
Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Nordstream sabotage (04:16) – Monkeypox (11:00) – Government responses (20:20) – Investment implications (26:43) – Artificial Intelligence -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jac...
Aug 16, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 226
Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Bitcoin (12:55) – Philosophical considerations (27:05) – Rails / assets (40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities (50:30) – Aliens -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob T...
Aug 12, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 225
Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence (02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility (08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets (19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis (28:26) - Bang...
Aug 09, 2024•56 min•Season 1Ep. 224
Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:47) - CI Club Concept (05:45) - Gl...
Aug 02, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 223
Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world. -- Timestamps: Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn) -- Referenced in the Show: -- Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Tw...
Aug 01, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 222
Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:50) - Kamala (05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China (17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela (33:00) – Egypt (43:51) – Vietnam (4...
Jul 26, 2024•55 min•Season 1Ep. 221
Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history (19:00) – Tariffs (34:00) – Devaluing the dollar (50:50) – China (59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit -- Jacob...
Jul 19, 2024•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 220
Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context (02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts (10:09) - Modern Trust Structur...
Jul 15, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 219
Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany. -- Timestamps: (00:00) -Intro (00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up (01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print (03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing (06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand...
Jul 13, 2024•48 min•Season 1Ep. 218
Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction and Welcome (00:59) - French Elections Recap (02:10) - Election Results Analysis (03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics (09:08) - Future of French Politics (15:56) - Macron's Presi...
Jul 10, 2024•52 min•Season 1Ep. 217
Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :) -- Timestamps: (00:00...
Jul 08, 2024•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 216
Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic (10:50) - Health consciousness (28:45) - Individualized healthcare (37:25)-end - The future of biotech -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com...
Jul 05, 2024•55 min•Season 1Ep. 215
Jacob and John Fowler, former diplomat and lawyer and now partner at International Intrigue, are creating a new show on geopolitics modeled after the popular sports analysis show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN. Their goal? To bring you honest, objective, rigorous geopolitical analysis on the week’s most critical topics with irony, humor, and humility…and all in 30 minutes or less. Impossible you say? Perhaps! But we are trying anyway. Enjoy the show, share your feedback with us, and check out o...
Jul 03, 2024•32 min•Season 1Ep. 214
Jacob Shapiro welcomes Elohim Monard back on the podcast for a serious and important discussion on crime in Latin America. They discuss the reasons behind the increase of crime in the region, how it ties into migration, why strongmen like Bukele are so fascinating to geopolitical nerds everywhere…and why pessimism might be the answer to attacking crime head on. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:23) - Why is crime increasing? (02:11) - tatistics on Violence in Latin America (03:16) - Migration a...
Jul 01, 2024•1 hr 21 min•Season 1Ep. 213
Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron’s election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:18) – Overview of France right now (09:00) – Macron’s likability (17:31) – What was Macron thinking? (22:50) - Silver linings (27:40) – French Civil War? (32:14) – Effects on EU (49:40) – What to watch -- CI Site: cognitive.investments...
Jun 26, 2024•54 min•Season 1Ep. 212
Referenced in the Show: https://cognitivedissidents.org/ -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wea...
Jun 21, 2024•8 min•Season 1Ep. 211
Jacob brings back Ignacio Asis and Elohim Monard for a long awaited reaction to Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election. They explore how his term has gone thus far, and break down the big bills he was able to pass through Argentina’s Senate this week. They also talk about regional and even international implications. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:19) - Discussion on Argentine Politics (04:29) - Milei's Legislative Achievements (05:54) - Economic and Social Impact...
Jun 18, 2024•54 min•Season 1Ep. 210
Jacob and Rob tackle a subject they’ve been avoiding due to its massiveness and ubiquity: Artificial Intelligence. They also do a segment of microgeopolitics (Jacob was in Bogota this week) and close out with initial thoughts on French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprising decision to call for legislative elections after his drubbing in European Parliament elections. -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Microgeopolitics: Bogota edition (13:37) – Artificial Intelligence (59:03) – France -- Referenced in the...
Jun 14, 2024•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 209
Jacob welcomes Matthew McClintock, Founder and Executive Managing Director of Bespoke, to the podcast. Bespoke and CI are strategic partners, and this will be the first of what will become a monthly cadence as Jacob and Matt aim to explore and apply the intersection of geopolitics, investing, and blockchain with practical ideas about planning. Jacob and Matt have an open and candid conversation about Matt’s background, what Bespoke does, and offer some thoughts about how to think about estate pl...
Jun 07, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 208
Jacob welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch onto the podcast. Jacob met Dmitri via Twitter, where he was arguing against the case Dale Copeland made on the podcast for China not invading Taiwan anytime soon. Dmitri lays out why he thinks Dale (and Jacob!) are wrong – about China, about Taiwan, and about the United States. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (1:30) – Taiwan as Berlin (17:10) – Taiwanese independence (29:23) – Xi Jinpin psychoanalysis (37:00) – US policy towards China (44:13) – US strategies wit...
Jun 04, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 207
Jacob takes to the mic solo to fire up the hot-take factory. He previews Mexico’s elections – situating Mexican democracy in its own history, surveying AMLO’s successes and failures, and parsing who Claudia Sheinaum is and why she might be better for Mexico than you think. He also identifies the key questions you should be thinking about in terms of the election and Mexican-U.S. relations going forward -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Intro (00:08) - Mexico’s Geopolitical Importance (03:03) - Historical...
May 31, 2024•31 min•Season 1Ep. 206
Akshar Patel joins the podcast to talk about India. Jacob and Akshar explore what caste really means, how religion and caste affect Indian politics, and explore Akshar’s idea of Ideologues v. Identitarians in Indian politics. They apply some of these insights to India’s upcoming elections and what is at stake in Modi’s transformation of the country. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:30) – The Emissary (06:30) – Left v right in India (12:20) – Caste and Religion (35:05) – Farmers and Soldiers (4...
May 27, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 205
Jacob and Rob are here to bring balance to the force. They discuss why inflation expectations might be coming unhinged, how the Fed is trying to scare the market with its response, and just how much the Fed doesn’t have under its control. Come for the market/geopolitics talk, but stay for the extended Star Wars metaphors and the advice at the end about why buy&hold might be a strategy of a bygone era. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:01) - Markets Check-In (10:45) – Inflation expectations ...
May 24, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 204
Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi’s shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) – Khamenei’s successor (08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death (14:13) – What happens next? (25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader (36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war ( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jor...
May 23, 2024•57 min•Season 1Ep. 203
