Cousin Marko and Jacob are back at it. Marko shares why he’s turned bearish on the US after being “manically” bullish for many moons. They discuss China/India and compare/contrast the equity markets there. A brief discussion on Russia/Ukraine and Europe in general and a cold shower on former President Donald Trump’s threats to Mexico leads into an extended discussion on the NBA – predictions + the rise and fall of great players + the U.S.-led quest to hamper European success in the league. Enjoy...
May 21, 2024•1 hr 9 min•Season 1Ep. 202
Jacob takes to the mic for an emergency reaction to the big event everyone is paying attention to from the weekend (Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident) and perhaps the one that is being missed (a failed coup attempt in the DRC). -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - Iran (12:36) - Attempted Coup in DRC -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly...
May 20, 2024•20 min•Season 1Ep. 201
What better way to celebrate 200 episodes than a Rob-Jacob episode full of important insights. Jacob and Rob talk about some of their best calls of the past few years before turning to the flooding in Brazil, opportunities (and risks) in the U.S. electricity sector, and the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. They also talk about the cognitive bias of investing and financial advisory services. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:53) – Looking back on 200 podcasts (12:53) – Cognitive biases in inve...
May 17, 2024•1 hr 13 min•Season 1Ep. 200
Dale Copeland joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, “A World Safe for Commerce.” He explains his theory of dynamic realism before pivoting to U.S.-China relations and an impassioned and thoughtful hot-take on why those predicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan don’t just misunderstand China – they are participating in the realization of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552 -- Timestamps: (00:00) -...
May 13, 2024•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 199
Rob is stuck in earnings hell, so you are treated to the dulcet tones of Jacob’s bass voice solo today. Jacob talks about the terrible flooding in Brazil and what it means for the country’s future. He also applies some insights from the disaster to housing insurance in the U.S. and other developed markets. He closes with a few thoughts on cocoa, coffee, and Mexico. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Brazil (13:48) – Insurance (20:21) – Cocoa and coffee (24:37) – Mexico -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Sit...
May 10, 2024•32 min•Season 1Ep. 198
Jacob and Rob are back at it for their weekly chat. They talk about the latest rumor that the Chinese government will prop up growth rates, explore whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions are realistic, and close with some thoughts on protectionism in steel. NOTE: PLEASE FILL OUT OUR SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7 -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (04:00) - Trends in Energy, Jokes (07:32) - The Chinese Economy (16:48) - US Investors and Economy (23:25) – France, Macron, +...
May 03, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 197
If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza Jacob welcomes Sanaa Kamal, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist who is currently in Egypt, onto the podcast. Jacob asks Sanaa about how her life has changed since Oct 7th and how she managed to reach Cairo. Sanaa bravely shares her story and her perspective on the ongoing war – and considering everything she has been through, her resilience and optimism in the face of such te...
Apr 29, 2024•42 min•Season 1Ep. 196
Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think. -- Timestamps: (00:00) – Intro (01:00) - Lessons from ROK (17:22) – Entrepreneurship (...
Apr 26, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 195
Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on t...
Apr 23, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 194
It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:07) – U.S. Economy (20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA (25:13) - What happens if Trump wins? (33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios (38...
Apr 19, 2024•1 hr 19 min•Season 1Ep. 193
Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal , takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence . Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has bee...
Apr 17, 2024•45 min•Season 1Ep. 192
Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wea...
Apr 14, 2024•27 min•Season 1Ep. 191
Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization (12:26) – China, Janet Yellen, (27:34) – Japan (47:00) – Globalization revisited (55:00) – Shameless plug -- Referenced in the Show: NY...
Apr 12, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 190
Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:10) - Taiwan (19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans (23:07) – Taiwan (25:10) – Imm...
Apr 05, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 189
Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Defining terms (11:41...
Apr 01, 2024•57 min•Season 1Ep. 188
Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war. -- Timestamps: (00:...
Mar 29, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 187
Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:48) – China v. US cyb...
Mar 25, 2024•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 186
Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) - Japan and the Fed (17:30) –...
Mar 22, 2024•41 min•Season 1Ep. 185
Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:25) - Why Indonesia (06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism (14:00) – Prabowo (29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy (...
Mar 18, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 184
Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells (14:20) – S&P 500 reversal? (23:00) – Technical analysis (29:50) – Japanese candlestick...
Mar 15, 2024•1 hr 14 min•Season 1Ep. 183
Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) – Eurasianism (17:00) – What does Putin think/believe (28:06) – Russia’s v...
Mar 11, 2024•45 min•Season 1Ep. 182
Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie) (11:54) – What if…tariff edition (20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History ...
Mar 08, 2024•54 min•Season 1Ep. 181
Jacob welcomes Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA research, onto the show. They reflect on their careers at Stratfor before diving into Matt’s thoughts on the Chinese economy, Taiwan’s future, and “Black Swan” Scenarios investors and analysts should have on their radar in 2024. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , fou...
Mar 04, 2024•47 min•Season 1Ep. 180
Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt. See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/ -- Timestamps...
Mar 01, 2024•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 179
Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic. ...
Feb 26, 2024•44 min•Season 1Ep. 178
Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30)– Eau Claire, WI (04:30)...
Feb 23, 2024•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 177
Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:17) - Inflation (11:34) - Politica...
Feb 16, 2024•52 min•Season 1Ep. 176
Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:45) – U.S. macro (09:26) – Oil (20:15) – NatGas (27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China (41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan (49:10) – Bitcoin -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.c...
Feb 09, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 175
Caroline Eaton Tracey joins the podcast to offer a thoughtful perspective on the Rio Grande River based on her recent article in The New York Review of Books . After discussing how dams on the river supported by the Mexican and U.S. governments have changed local communities and endangered natural ecosystems, they turn to Caroline’s new research interest and the topic of her forthcoming book: Salt Lakes. -- Timestamps: Caroline’s website – https://cetracey.com/ Stopping the Old Rio Grande – http...
Feb 07, 2024•42 min•Season 1Ep. 174
Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (04:45) - US Economy (14:05) – Middle East (24:00) – Oil (35:50)– Natural...
Feb 03, 2024•52 min•Season 1Ep. 173
