Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially in relation to Oct. 7 and the Red Sea shipping disruptions. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) -...
Jan 30, 2024•52 min•Season 1Ep. 172
Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:24) – 2023 in review (07:56) – El Niño and the MEI (14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America (26:35) – Buoys tangent (31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America (35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl (44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places i...
Jan 29, 2024•53 min•Season 1Ep. 171
Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and w...
Jan 26, 2024•59 min•Season 1Ep. 170
Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture! Up for discussion in this episode: Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping lane Logistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be? There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this one Taiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter? Speaking of elections, what about Argentina? China/Argentina ...
Jan 22, 2024•24 min•Season 1Ep. 169
Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:10) - Present and Future of Oil (19:15) - China/Taiwan (37:25)– France (42:49) – Listener Q&A – Red Sea (49:45) – Q&A – Under the radar -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob ...
Jan 19, 2024•58 min•Season 1Ep. 168
Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective (15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions (33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my (40:20) – Black Swans -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacob...
Jan 16, 2024•51 min•Season 1Ep. 167
Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germany…before a mea culpa about Ethiopian Airlines. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:14) - Red Sea Upd...
Jan 12, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 166
Ben Shepherd joins Jacob to talk about the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ben urges listeners to think and look beyond the endless stories about violence in the DRC and instead to note, however, halting and fragile, the progress the country has made in the last 20 years and its potential in the future. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:36) – History and geography of the DRC (15:15) - Why is it shaped that way? (21:48) – Breakdown of Congolese misgovernance (28:26) - Violence in the eastern DRC (...
Jan 08, 2024•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 165
Smoke rises from the Red Sea. The hour grows late and Rob calls Jacob seeking his counsel. For that is why you have come, is it not…our old friends? If you like the Lord of the Rings, you got that joke. If you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? Welcome to the return of the Cognitive Dissidents podcast in 2024, with Jacob and Rob relatively downbeat about both markets and geopolitics to start off the year. -- Timestamps: (01:00) – Market expectations (11:24) - Is the good economy just luck? (18:22) –...
Jan 05, 2024•53 min•Season 1Ep. 164
Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics. -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career). -- Disclaimer: Cognitive Investm...
Dec 22, 2023•28 min•Season 1Ep. 163
Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institut...
Dec 15, 2023•45 min•Season 1Ep. 162
Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic (24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment (34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come (41:44) - Will China invade Taiwan? -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob...
Dec 08, 2023•45 min•Season 1Ep. 161
Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America. -- Timestamps: (01:10) - Intro (04:47) - Why Geopolitics? (07:18) - What is Geopolitics? (25:19) - Geopolitics of the “Three Amer...
Dec 01, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 160
Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024. -- Timestamps: (00:51) – Argentina (05:58) – Indonesia/APEC (16:09) – Venezuela (26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy (31:51) – Iran (39:00) – Oil -- Referenced in the Show: -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twi...
Nov 28, 2023•51 min•Season 1Ep. 159
Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers. -- Referenced in the Show: Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the ...
Nov 24, 2023•42 min•Season 1Ep. 158
Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Javier Milei -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep -- Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm , founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, invest...
Nov 20, 2023•23 min•Season 1Ep. 157
Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization (07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization (15:15) - Is IP ever safe? (24:01) - Semicon...
Nov 20, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 156
Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:30) - U.S-China relations (32:04) - Investing -- Referenced in the Show: Fight in the Senate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BO9fnjshHvg Chinese readout: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/20...
Nov 18, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 155
Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:52) - Polish elections (09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO? (14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war (20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition? (22:45) - Nuclear proliferation (28:00) - Ru...
Nov 13, 2023•50 min•Season 1Ep. 154
Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloom though – Brazil continues to shine. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:07) – Nuclear problems in t...
Nov 10, 2023•41 min•Season 1Ep. 153
Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations (11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals (19:04) – Egypt, Jordan and the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics (7:57) – Palestinian perspective (38:22) – Sudan’s civ...
Nov 08, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 152
Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:55) - Book Summary (06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape (12:09) - Understanding Putin's motivations/US Energy (17:30) - Suez Crisis and Germany and Energy (25:11) - What's next for Ge...
Nov 06, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 151
Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are driving CI's macro strategy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:23) - The Fed/Rates (07:31) - Global ...
Nov 03, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 150
Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) – Argentina election results (10:04) – What is Peronism? (17:34) – The role of social media (26:11))...
Oct 30, 2023•1 hr 17 min•Season 1Ep. 149
Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:55) - US Macro (08:20) - US consumers are doing well?? (12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad?? (15:15) - Mig...
Oct 27, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 148
Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty (12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty (17:50) - Why...
Oct 20, 2023•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 147
Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it...
Oct 17, 2023•32 min•Season 1Ep. 146
Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz an...
Oct 16, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 145
On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-s...
Oct 14, 2023•47 min•Season 1Ep. 144
Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:02) – U.S. Treasuries (11:14) - Governmen...
Oct 13, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 143
