Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft (11:42) - Iran and the West Bank (19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran? (28:17) - What is next for Iran? (34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah? (40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps (45:44) - Whe...
Oct 12, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 142
Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure (08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update (10:20) – Hamas’s intentions (17:08) - Is Iran behind this? (22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals? (29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation? (36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals? (38...
Oct 11, 2023•50 min•Season 1Ep. 141
Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) – U.S. Elections (16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics (31:35) – Europe x China relations (43:47) – Ideologies under multipola...
Oct 09, 2023•1 hr 26 min•Season 1Ep. 140
Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean. -- CI Site: cognitive.investments Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobSh...
Oct 08, 2023•29 min•Season 1Ep. 139
Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity...
Oct 06, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 138
Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end. Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/j...
Oct 02, 2023•37 min•Season 1Ep. 137
Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:20) - Macro Overview (19:20) – EU problems (25:20) - No optimism in EU (36:06) – Japan automakers leave China (40:15) - 4 interesting events -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linke...
Sep 29, 2023•49 min•Season 1Ep. 136
Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany. Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious ( www.think-beyondtheobvious.com ), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has wr...
Sep 25, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 135
Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:20) - Snot (02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates (11:11) - Brazil/US real estate...
Sep 22, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 134
Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:24) –German Industrialization (06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics (22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0 (39:28) - China’s tech resilience -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investmen...
Sep 15, 2023•48 min•Season 1Ep. 133
Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup (08:33) - Chile...
Sep 11, 2023•48 min•Season 1Ep. 132
Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state. Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access. -- T...
Sep 08, 2023•43 min•Season 1Ep. 131
Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!) -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Migration (06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside (10:15) - Stagnation in Japan (15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations (21:50) - South China Sea (28:42) - Chinese...
Sep 04, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 130
Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:32) - How to think about information (13:15) - The challenges of information overload (19...
Sep 01, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 129
Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) – Guatemalan Elections ...
Aug 28, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 128
Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:55) – Prigozhin (08:06) – BRICS (12:00) – India (14:52) – Ethiopia (15:52) – Guatemala -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: ht...
Aug 25, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 127
Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:32) - What is a superconductor? (12:0...
Aug 21, 2023•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 126
Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections (03:36) – Panama Canal (04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria (08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh (09:39) – Wheat (12:29) – China (16:00) – Germany -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.inve...
Aug 18, 2023•20 min•Season 1Ep. 125
Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers. Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.link...
Aug 14, 2023•28 min•Season 1Ep. 124
Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:20) - Inflation (10:08) - Jerome's Take (15:05) - Chinese Deflation (20:00) - Higher Commodities (22:30) - Natura...
Aug 11, 2023•1 hr 16 min•Season 1Ep. 123
Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and ...
Aug 10, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 122
Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next. Sahe...
Aug 09, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 121
Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity...
Aug 07, 2023•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 120
Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of important points that are not getting enough attention. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:21...
Aug 04, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 119
Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (...
Jul 28, 2023•42 min•Season 1Ep. 118
Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse? (07:16) - North American weather predictions (14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023 (22:00...
Jul 24, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 117
Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:15) - Ireland Check-In (09:40) - Migration Flows and the European ...
Jul 22, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 116
Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains. We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary (04:10) - W...
Jul 20, 2023•26 min•Season 1Ep. 115
Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) - Inflation (05:00) - What's ...
Jul 14, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 114
Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive (05:50) - Defining succe...
Jul 12, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 113
