No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports (12:21) - Natural gas teaser -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investment...
Jul 07, 2023•16 min•Season 1Ep. 112
Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:05) - Catching Up (04:32) - Telling Stories with Data (14:40) - Getting Meta (17:20) - US Restric...
Jul 03, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 111
Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds. Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Colorado River (10:30) - Is t...
Jun 28, 2023•49 min•Season 1Ep. 110
Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish). -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:42) - Chase predicts a recession (12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap (15:30) - Macro credit (18:20) - Futures in a recession (21:00) - Signals and signs (26:00) - Bullish on Japan (...
Jun 27, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 109
Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the U...
Jun 26, 2023•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 108
Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion. This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated! -- CI...
Jun 24, 2023•17 min•Season 1Ep. 107
Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (01:36) - UK inflation (06:15) - US ...
Jun 23, 2023•50 min•Season 1Ep. 106
Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:09) – Economy is good...
Jun 21, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 105
Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world? (08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy (14:18) - NZ Security Policy (23:10) - US/China Detente (26:04) - The...
Jun 19, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 104
Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels! Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/ -- CI LinkedIn: https://www...
Jun 16, 2023•38 min•Season 1Ep. 103
Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, technological developments, and the future of mining…which for better and for worse is the bedrock of ...
Jun 12, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 102
Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an ...
Jun 09, 2023•1 hr 9 min•Season 1Ep. 101
Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary. -- Timestamps:...
Jun 05, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 100
Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Introduction (02:15) - Strategic Wealth (14:00) - Brazil (22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis (27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia (32:07) - Speculation and Strategy (37:14) - Economics is ...
Jun 02, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 99
Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:30) - Election results analysis (14:00) - Future of Turkish economy -- CI LinkedIn: http...
May 31, 2023•43 min•Season 1Ep. 98
Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets. You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro (20:09) – Is China investable? (27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania (37:48) – Japan (...
May 29, 2023•51 min•Season 1Ep. 97
Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why ...
May 26, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 96
Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (11:20) – Where i...
May 24, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 95
Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary ...
May 22, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 94
Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:20) - Election Results (07:00) - Thai history (20:00) – What does the opposition stand for? (25:40) – Geopolitical implications -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linke...
May 20, 2023•35 min•Season 1Ep. 93
It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview (24:55) - Pakistan + Global food prices (41:53) – Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador (55:36) – Don’t sleep on Germany -- CI Website: https...
May 18, 2023•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 92
Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.) -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/i...
May 15, 2023•26 min•Season 1Ep. 91
To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here: https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch (05:45) - What Is It? (06:44) - Geopo...
May 12, 2023•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 90
Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free. Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction moving forward. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:06) - Turkey (16:16) - Gulf/Iran (34:24) – Israel (47...
May 10, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 89
Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions. Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, In...
Apr 30, 2023•57 min•Season 1Ep. 88
TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7 -- Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the recent spate of news around lithium nationalizations. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:30) - Jaco...
Apr 28, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 87
In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World . While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fresh and deserves more careful thought and analysis. Enjoy! -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (02:17) - Th...
Apr 26, 2023•49 min•Season 1Ep. 86
Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-Saharan Africa…and with a shout-out to Warren Buffett for coming around on our long Japan thesis. Su...
Apr 21, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 85
Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity. Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahx...
Apr 17, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 84
Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (1:50) - Banking crisis/Chas...
Apr 07, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 83
