Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and their conclusion about where that war premium is likely to show up in the market may surprise you. The...
Apr 03, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 82
Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the pr...
Mar 31, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 81
Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4...
Mar 28, 2023•23 min•Season 1Ep. 80
The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective no matter who wins the elections and prospects for investing going forward. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - ...
Mar 27, 2023•53 min•Season 1Ep. 79
It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future is necessarily authoritarian. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:11) - Market Update (14:48) – How to ...
Mar 24, 2023•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 78
Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain, before turning to a very introductory discussion of generative artificial intelligence and why Jaco...
Mar 20, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 77
Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They close with some thoughts on whether SVB will have any contagion in Europe before making a defense of de...
Mar 17, 2023•56 min•Season 1Ep. 76
Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamra...
Mar 15, 2023•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 75
Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed resuming its previous hawkishness and tease out underappreciated areas of the economy where more expensive capital could have consequences, especially related to U.S. energy production. From there, they take a brief look at geopolitics in Egypt and Turkey before turning to the biggest geopolitical news of the week you probably didn’t pay attention to – the rapprochement in South Korea-Japan relations. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (2:48) - Market update (16:20) - Eg...
Mar 10, 2023•46 min•Season 1Ep. 74
This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts. Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-on-china-the-west-and-the-fog-of-war-with-jacob-shapiro/ -- CI Linke...
Mar 06, 2023•33 min•Season 1Ep. 73
Rob and Jacob breakdown China’s shockingly good PMI data and what it will mean for inflation and U.S. dollar strength. From there, they look closely at European economic data and walked away chastened about Europe’s prospects for the rest of year. Midway through the podcast, Rob and Jacob offer a new segment – “Anatomy of a Trade” – and discuss recent positions (long wheat, short soybeans) in CI’s Macro strategy, before closing with some thoughts on the future of Mexican democracy. -- Timestamps...
Mar 03, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 72
Jacob welcomes Emily de La Bruyère on to the podcast for a robust debate about China’s global intentions and the future of U.S.-China relations. In a conversation blissfully bereft of inane chatter about spy balloons, Emily and Jacob disagree about China’s strategic intentions and the extent to which the U.S. is dependent on China. From there they discuss the critical role of Europe in the U.S.-China bilateral and before honing in on specific ways listeners can make use of these conflicting (sor...
Feb 27, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 71
Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why time is not on the side of the latter – before closing with some thoughts on a geopolitical shift i...
Feb 24, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 70
How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines? If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them? Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents. They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offer thoughts on Pakistan and India’s divergent policy directions, and speculate on the future of EVs! ...
Feb 17, 2023•46 min•Season 1Ep. 69
Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (1:14) - U.S. coalition against China (13:14) – Ukraine War (34:14) – Multipolarity (42:30) – India (52:11) – Kyrie Irving -- Marko's ...
Feb 15, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 68
Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or not Ukraine will be receiving some fighter jets to move into offensive mode. Tune in to learn more!...
Feb 13, 2023•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 67
What happens when you have wage growth inflation, a consistently shrinking workforce, historically low unemployment, and surging investment from the government? How do human capital issues (e.g. disability rates, death rates, declining life expectancy) and inflation play off of one another across the markets? Rob and Jacob explore the concept of human capital from a variety of angles, starting with the a breakdown of the concept and the issues that threaten to slow down the US economy. They proc...
Feb 10, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 66
What the heck is up with these Chinese Balloons? -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Balloons -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/ Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340 -- Cognitive Investme...
Feb 07, 2023•15 min•Season 1Ep. 65
Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives? -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Intro (4:00) - What is nuclear...
Feb 06, 2023•59 min•Season 1Ep. 64
Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply across supply chains and mutual beneficial agreements - leading Jacob to ask some serious questions ab...
Feb 03, 2023•52 min•Season 1Ep. 63
Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead. -- Timestamps: (0:00) - Introduction (2:40) – David’s background (10:00) – George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S. China Relations (21:27) – Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship (45:34) – The ye...
Jan 30, 2023•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 62
Elohim Monard rejoins the podcast and pinch-hits for Rob’s usually weekly slot to address the ongoing and escalating deterioration of political stability in Peru. Elohim offers insightful perspective about what would happen if Boluarte resigned and shares disturbing allegations of terrorism and Bolivian involvement in the protests that have been circulating in Peru and that may set the stage for a military coup. From there, they take a brief tour of the other major countries of Latin America and...
Jan 27, 2023•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 61
Dario Fabbri comes back to the CD pod to talk with Jacob about the future of the European Union, Russia/China, and the political instability rocking Latin America. Italy, Germany, and France are all dealing with the War in Ukraine differently, and their responses will have a ripple effect that moves far beyond the conflict. Is this a pivotal year for the EU? Structural changes to both industry and geopolitical policy are shifting the foundation of Europe into a new paradigm but... What does that...
Jan 23, 2023•51 min•Season 1Ep. 60
Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter...
Jan 20, 2023•52 min•Season 1Ep. 59
Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance. -- CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/ CI Website: https://cognitive.investments CI Twitter: https://...
Jan 16, 2023•52 min•Season 1Ep. 58
We're usually pretty bullish on the EU, but this week some interesting data points were released that made us rethink our usual Euro decisions. Jacob and Rob take some time to break down the data behind their decision to short the Euro, then move southwest to Latin America where commodities seem to be ignoring the wild political strife and flying to the moon. Finally, heading over to the Middle East and Asia, R & J tackle Iran's strange outbursts and try to gauge whether India is actually ab...
Jan 13, 2023•54 min•Season 1Ep. 57
What led to the Capital Riots on January 8th situation? Is there a significant threat to Democracy inside of Brazil? Will there be significant geopolitical fallout for Brazil's neighbors? What will Brazil's domestic fallout look like? How will this affect global markets or long positions in the Brazilian market? Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . The Global Situation Report (CI Newsletter) Cognitive Investments This podcast uses the following third-party ser...
Jan 09, 2023•28 min•Season 1Ep. 56
2023 has started off with a fairly subdued international news cycle... but the world hasn't stopped turning. So, what's lurking beneath the surface? What are we missing (besides Kevin McCarthy's humiliation at the hands of his own party)? Tune in to hear the latest updates on everything going on outside of our little bubble - across Europe, Asia, Latin America and the food markets! Timestamps: 0:00-7:26 – Europe 7:26-18:53 – Japan 18:53 – 23:06 – China 23:06 – 36:15 – Copper 36:15 – 50:45 – Soyb...
Jan 06, 2023•1 hr 9 min•Season 1Ep. 55
What does the immediate future of China look like? Is China a threat to the US dominance of markets and military? John Minnich and Jacob Shapiro talk about the future of the PRC, how China and the US stack up against one another in a multi-polar world, China's struggles in the tech industry, and their ever-looming presence in neighboring countries. John Minnich is a PhD candidate in International Relations and Comparative Politics at MIT Timestamps : 1:40-10:50 – China 2023 10:50 - 27:10 – Is Ch...
Jan 02, 2023•55 min•Season 1Ep. 54
What's coming for 2023? Obviously, we can't predict the future - but we can make some educated guesses about what's to come. Are we moving towards a unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar global system? Global monetary policy is moving in some novel (yet still stale) directions, globalization is evolving as geopolitics shapes international relations, and somehow Russia is still grinding away at Ukraine. Tune in for some interesting surprises Timestamps: 0:00-4:43 – Intro 4:43 - 17:26 – The Bank of Jap...
Dec 23, 2022•48 min•Season 1Ep. 53
