Kamran rejoins the show without much optimism to offer – for Iran, for Pakistan, or for much of the Muslim world. Central Asia, however, might be the silver lining. Timestamps: 1:22 - 32:20 – Iran 32:20 - 39:10 – Turkey 39:10 – 52:40 Islam/Pakistan 52:40 – end – Any optimism? Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp...
Dec 19, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 52
Jacob and Rob discuss the latest developments in geopolitics and markets. They dissect the U.S. inflation print before discussing why the euro is at a critical moment, why no one should be certain about China going into 2023, and some peripheral risks that aren’t being focused on enough. They also discuss Jacob’s savant-level soccer predictions. Timestamps: 2:00-12:05 – U.S. Macro 12:05-20:10 – Pivotal moment for Europe 20:10-40:29 – China is confusing 40:14–48:20 – Canary in Southeast Asia 48:2...
Dec 16, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 51
Elohim Monard joins Jacob for an emergency podcast to discuss the “dumbest coup attempt in history.” They discuss what happened this week in Peru, why it happened, and what it means for the future. Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp
Dec 10, 2022•27 min•Season 1Ep. 50
Rob and Jacob break down false narratives on U.S. macro and on German de-industrialization before taking a trip around the world and looking at key issues in the EU-Hungary conflict, and China’s COVID-19 and real estate problems. They close with some optimism about Japan and ways of thinking about demographics and globalization in a rapidly changing world. Timestamps: 1:22 - 10:40 - False Narratives in Macro 10:40 - 23:00 - German De-Industrialization 23:00 - 36:26 - Hungary's Bad Bets 36:26 - 4...
Dec 09, 2022•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 49
Dan Basse and Jacob sit down in person to talk about the world, markets, and, of course, agriculture! Dan Basse is President of AgResource and a fantastic guest! https://agresource.com/about/ Timestamps 2:00 – 14:00 – Recapping presentations at PDPW 14:00-26:00 – Peak U.S. Farmland/2023 Predictions/Russia-Ukraine 24:00 – end: Why people underestimate Brazil + thoughts on Mexico Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party se...
Dec 05, 2022•36 min•Season 1Ep. 48
Jacob and Rob gather for their weekly chat and discuss the protests in China and what is being missed about them. They then discuss the quietly deteriorating trade relationship between the U.S. and EU before focusing in on developments in Latin America, especially the problems in Mercosur and how Brazil may or may not capitalize. Timestamps 1:15-20:15 – China 20:15-30:00 – U.S.-EU relations 30:00 – end: Latin America + multipolarity Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and servic...
Dec 02, 2022•46 min•Season 1Ep. 47
Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future. Jacob welcomes Jacek back onto Cognitive Dissidents to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. They discuss several critical issues, including 1) Who fired the missile that landed in Poland and killed 2 people? 2) Will Germany stand up for Ukraine in the long-run? 3) Is the world headed towards a U.S.-China rivalry. Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the follow...
Nov 23, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 46
Mike Edwards is Deputy CIO at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers. Jacob and Mike discuss China headlines briefly before diving into the main topic: whether the Chinese Communist Party can encourage alternatives to property as an investment vehicle in China. From there they touch on Japan briefly before concluding with some bullish thoughts on Europe. Timestamps: 1:13-7:33 – China COVID Reopening 7:33-15:26 – G-20 Thoughts 15:26-32:13 – China’s Property Crisis 32:30-38:50 – Japan 38:50–end – Europe Ma...
Nov 21, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 45
Jacob and Rob tackle the FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried debacle, before turning to China’s struggles (and whether Xi Jinping is up to them), as well as thoughts on U.S. Fed and ECB monetary policies…with historical allusions back to the interwar period of the 20th century. 1:42-27:30 – Crypto/FTX/SBF 27:30-45:53 – China 45:53-end: The Fed v. the ECB; the U.S. as the UK Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysi...
Nov 18, 2022•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 44
Jacob is joined by Daryl Ritchison, Director of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network at NDSU, to discuss how the weather will look in the world in the year ahead. They start with some broad thoughts about the pitfalls of predicting the weather, before checking in on the U.S, Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe, and China and what weather has in store in the year ahead. Timestamps: 2:10–10:10 – How to think about weather 10:10-21:30 – La Nina and Hurricane Season 21:30-31:47– Europe 31...
Nov 14, 2022•55 min•Season 1Ep. 43
Rob and Jacob briefly address the weaker-than-expected inflation print before attending to developments you might have missed amidst all the U.S. inflation and election news: more economic trouble in China, optimism in Europe and Brazil…and a potential canary in the coal mind at the end of the episode. Timestamps: 1:30-6:37 – U.S. Inflation Reaction 6:37-24:55 – China/Japan 25:00-33:40 – Multipolar Trade 933:40-44:10 – Europe 44:10–End – Canary in the coal mine Make sure to check out the Cogniti...
Nov 11, 2022•55 min•Season 1Ep. 42
Marko Papic is back to talk about the markets, Russia's big fudge on oil (and war), and a little bit of everything else geopolitical! Stick around for some basketball talk after 1:04:10! TimeStamps: 3:12 - 23:34 - Markets Update 23:30 - 39:30 - Oil, Europe, UAE, Russia 39:30 - 52:20 - Ukraine, Russia, The Future 52:20 - 1:04:10 - Over-Under 1:04:10 - End Basketball Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for an...
Nov 07, 2022•1 hr 21 min•Season 1Ep. 41
After a 2-week hiatus due to COVID and travel, Rob and Jacob are back at it. They explore Russia’s brief exit from the Black Sea grain deal, discuss how China and the U.S. economies are going in opposite directions, explore short-term risks and long-term opportunity in Turkey, before closing with bullish thoughts on Brazil post-election. Timestamps: 2:00-15:43 – Who wins if Russia is weak? 16:00-43:46 – U.S. booming, China on its knees 43:46-58:53 – Turkey: The Good, Bad, and the Ugly 58:53–end ...
Nov 04, 2022•1 hr 18 min•Season 1Ep. 40
Jacob welcomes Dave Ripplinger on the podcast to discuss the problems Europe is facing this winter and the areas they agree and disagree. They also talk about the U.S. energy economy, the role of biofuels and renewable diesel in the U.S. energy transition, and close with some broad thoughts about the future of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the decade. David Ripplinger is Assistant Professor at the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics and the Chair of the Bioenergy Products an...
Oct 31, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 39
This is a crossposted episode from the Rane Podcast Series with Stratfor! Rodger Baker, executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE , and Jacob discuss the practice of applied geopolitics in the context of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin's efforts to leverage energy supplies against Europe, and China's 20th Party Congress (among other asides). The original episode is here . Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses t...
Oct 29, 2022•43 min•Season 1Ep. 38
Jacob plugs in from Dublin, Ireland, where he is currently at a Barnett-Hall conference discussing the crazy year in geopolitics -- and where we can expect to go from here. 0:36-9:00 – The next 5 years 9:00-12:15 – The UK 12:15- 17:00 – Ireland 17:00 - end – China Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp...
Oct 21, 2022•24 min•Season 1Ep. 37
Jacob and Rob take a step back from yet another crazy week in geopolitics and have a theoretical and wide-ranging conversation about the state of the world, how to deal with uncertainty and volatility, and whether we should be optimistic about the next 6-12 months and beyond. Timestamps - Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp...
Oct 14, 2022•55 min•Season 1Ep. 36
Abdolrasool Divsallar (Farzam, if you will) joins us again, after well over a year, to discuss the growing unrest in Iran. Farzam is a visiting profesor at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute. Twitter: https://twitter.com/Divsallar Timestamps 0:00-9:30 – Why these Iranian protests are different 9:30-16:00 – What’s up with the Supreme Leader? 16:00-20:46 – Regional response 31:28-48:30 – the Iran Nuclear Deal/relations with Russia 48:30-end...
Oct 10, 2022•59 min•Season 1Ep. 35
This market is absolutely wild, with the Fed trying to be both proactive and reactive simultaneously, and the lads try to tackle the underlying reasons + the future. Also China's role in the markets (and their drought), the politics surrounding Saudi Arabia's strange move on Oil this week, and much more! Timestamps: 0:08-16:40 – U.S. Macro Overview 16:40 - 25:30 – China 25:30 - 45:00 – Saudi Arabia/Oil 45:00 - End – Brazil Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . ...
Oct 07, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 34
Neil Townsend hops back onto the pod to discuss the underlying agricultural currents shifting beneath the surface of our geopolitical landscape. Food and fertilizer prices are up, Brazil and China are facing epic droughts, and the future of food production globally is uncertain. Is this news? No. Are there technological and economic innovations that are drastically changing our ability to cope with these issues? Tune in to find out! Neil Townsend is the Chief Market Analyst with FarmLink Marketi...
Oct 03, 2022•1 hr 15 min•Season 1Ep. 33
Why do we have 700 gigawatts (total US electricity capacity is currently 1,150GW) of solar capacity awaiting permits, approval, or connection to the US power grid? What does the future of US infrastructure look like? Is the Nord Stream Pipeline being sabotaged? Who would benefit from that? Chairman Xi is on the brink of declaring himself lifetime leader of the Communist Party; what does that mean for the Chinese political experiment? Timestamps 1:25 - 9:20 – USA 9:00 - 33:30 – Pipeline Mysteries...
Sep 30, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 32
The Euro is below parity with the dollar and Japan's government intervened with the yen for the first time in a number of decades. Join Rob and Jacob as they talk through inflation woes, Europe's inevitable gains, and much more! Timestamps: 1:05-13:00 – U.S. Inflation 13:00-23:00 – Still bullish Europe 23:00-36:00 – Turkey/Iran/Uzbekistan 36:00-49:56 – Japan 50:00- end – Brazil Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party se...
Sep 23, 2022•1 hr 7 min•Season 1Ep. 31
Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat. Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack. NYTimes article referenced here TimeStamps: 1:54-11:15 – What’s happening? 11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy 23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve 28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Optio...
Sep 19, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 30
We tackle inflation, Ukraine, Long Europe and... emotional investing? Jacob and Rob meander into some larger and more philosophical questions about their abilities to distance themselves from the emotional impact of being entangled in the markets. Investment decisions have real life impacts on real people, and disentangling yourself from the emotional impact can be a tenuous or even painful. Timestamps: 1:15-18:31 – Inflation 18:31-32:30 – Ukraine 32:30-38:54 – Psychology of Analysis 38:54-53:22...
Sep 16, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 29
Jacob is back! The markets went nowhere (and everywhere, depending on how you look at it)! Hop back in to hear Jacob and Rob run through: Market Overview - 1:40-9:15 We like Europe - 9:15-19:20 China/Japan, Yuan/Yen - 19:20-32:20 Chile, Copper, U.S., Energy Transition - 32:20-47:55 Pakistan + India - 47:55-end Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-...
Sep 09, 2022•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 28
Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity. Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin. Timestamps: 1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare 20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei 28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks 34:30 - 45:35 - Has there ev...
Aug 29, 2022•1 hr 4 min•Season 1Ep. 27
Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more. John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue , a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, an...
Aug 22, 2022•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 26
Weekly Update! Catch this week's convo on: The uncertainty spilling out of the Federal Reserve (1:35 - 14:40) China's economy (14:40 - 20:00) Latin American Markets (20:00 - 24:40) Japan Rising (24:40 - 31:20) Europe's Energy Crisis/Opportunity (31:20 - End) Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp...
Aug 19, 2022•54 min•Season 1Ep. 25
How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China). Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk a...
Aug 15, 2022•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 24
Weekly Update! J&R talk markets, China, the future of South Africa and Brazil, and trends popping up in the coffee and chocolate trade! Timestamps: 2:47-13:30 – U.S. CPI/Market overview 13:30-22:47 – China update 22:47-40:17 – South Africa, Brazil, and Strategic Wealth 40:17 – end – Coffee and Chocolate Make sure to check out the Cognitive Dissidents site and services here . This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-pol...
Aug 12, 2022•1 hr 10 min•Season 1Ep. 23
