Jeff Currie, Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, returns to update us on the commodities super-cycle. Redistributive policies, energy transition and deglobalization are driving commodity prices higher and higher. However, investment is not flowing into the sector – kept away by the risk and the optics. This sets the stage for a volatility trap that could lead to huge market disruption. What has led us to the state and what could the future hold? How will investment return to th...
Apr 27, 2022•46 min•Ep. 93
The container shipping market, the lynchpin of global commerce, is in turmoil. Shipping rates have increased 1000%. Over the last decade, commodities have been increasingly containerized, as low prices have supported efforts for shipping lines to build market share. Why the turmoil? What is causing the bottlenecks? What is its role in inflation? What does this mean for commodities and when will things get back to normal...? Our guest to navigate these choppy waters is Peter Sand, Chief Analyst a...
Apr 20, 2022•59 min•Ep. 92
The commodities markets and its traders face great challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may tip an already stressed markets into turmoil. The LME’s recent challenges with Nickel has exposed serious cracks in both how markets function and are funded. It has sent a shock wave through the sector, signaling that commodity price risk may have been seriously undervalued. Margins requirements have spiraled and recent requests for support by the sector’s main traders may have invited a future reckon...
Apr 13, 2022•55 min•Ep. 91
In this episode, Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Pulitzer Prize winner and author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations, returns to the podcast to discuss the unfolding energy crisis and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What does the energy crisis (and the broader commodity super-cycle) mean for geopolitics and how does it shape the trends we discussed in our previous episode? Was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered by the changing energy ma...
Apr 06, 2022•55 min•Ep. 90
Digitization is transforming commodities trading, creating new opportunities and introducing new risks as markets become faster and transparent. What does this all mean for how and who makes trading decisions? How trades are settled and financiers connected? Can this tackle the liquidity challenges the industry faces? What does this mean for organizational design and talent? All these questions and more are tackled by the panelists who participated in this Reuters Event Webinar recorded in March...
Mar 30, 2022•56 min•Ep. 89
In this episode, we do a deep dive in to the world of voluntary carbon credits, which dominate the carbon world in the absence of widespread global compliance markets. To date the categories, case law and regulation around these credits is complex and fragmented. However, with vast amounts of money flowing into them as companies respond to consumer demand the space is rapidly evolving and expanding. What are they? How are they generated, verified, tracked, financed and traded? Who is active in t...
Mar 23, 2022•36 min•Ep. 88
To date, carbon markets cover only a few geographies and select categories. Yet, they are already impacting how commodities are produced and traded. Over the next decade, carbon credits will expand to cover all manner of reduction and avoidance technologies, dramatically changing the commodities world. Low carbon alternatives to existing commodities will flourish and so will the circular economy. Carbon will become a truly global commodity and every trader will need to know the market. How can c...
Mar 16, 2022•44 min•Ep. 87
In this episode we return to Hydrogen with guest Erik Rakhou, Associate Director at Boston Consulting Group. Low-carbon Hydrogen projects, policy support and predictions continue to dominate the news. So does the debate over its role in the energy transition, from power production to use as a fuel. What is the landscape today, the state of the debate and what will the future of Hydrogen be? What conditions will be needed? Where and how will low-carbon Hydrogen be deployed? Erik, together with co...
Mar 09, 2022•45 min•Ep. 86
Robert Bensh, veteran energy executive and Ukraine investor, joins us again in a special episode to update us on the harrowing, shocking and tragic events in Ukraine. What has become of the people and companies that Robert partners with? What is happening with Ukraine's energy sector today? What can be done to help Ukraine? What are the immediate and long-term consequences of the resulting sanctions on Russia? Has the invasion not only fundamentally changed geopolitics, has it also fundamentally...
Mar 03, 2022•31 min
Demand for food is growing, and changing, with population increases and demographic change. At the same time, energy transition is creating an insatiable appetite for agricultural products. To date, advances in agri-technology and an efficient global trade has kept prices stable and inflation low. Is this now under threat as inflation takes grip? What is driving demand and how is it changing? Will governmental intervention disrupt the global agri trade with dire consequences for prices and polit...
Mar 02, 2022•51 min•Ep. 85
At the end of the last decade, Investment Banks dominated commodity trading. The best results, the biggest seats and the best paid. A few short years later and the majority had scaled back or exited. Why? What drove their success and their exit. Now, in the foothills of a commodity super-cycle and the volatility of the energy transition will we see the banks return? The 2021 results, matching the previous highs, of those few banks who stuck it out suggests so. And what will be different this tim...
Feb 23, 2022•50 min•Ep. 84
Trillions of dollars will be needed to transition the global industrial base away from fossil fuels. Unlike the digital revolution, this will be capital intensive and technologically diverse – many of such technologies may be transitory themselves. So, what is the role of the capital markets and the financial institutions that facilitate them? How can investors navigate such a multi-pathed journey? And what of the companies that are forging this route – what determines their valuations and acces...
Feb 16, 2022•56 min•Ep. 83
Trading is hard. Trading natural gas is trading on hard mode. The market has constantly evolved since its inception over the last twenty years ago, as regulation, transparency and market developments (e.g. shale) have changed the game. In the wake of those changes, many platforms and traders have left. So what does it take to survive and thrive as a trader in the energy markets? We turn to one of the most successful energy traders of all time to find the answers. Our guest is Bill Perkins, veter...
Feb 09, 2022•57 min•Ep. 82
The mining sector faces powerful forces that are both disrupting it and creating opportunity. Customers are demanding greater transparency, while the energy transition continues to impact the entire supply chain. To maintain a competitive edge, mining businesses must adapt - reviewing everything from operational capability, to how they market and trade, and their culture and talent. In this episode, Oliver Wyman partner Roland Rechtsteiner takes us into the boardrooms of the world’s largest mine...
Feb 02, 2022•46 min•Ep. 81
In this episode we talk with author Owain Johnson, on his recently published book, 40 Classic Crude Oil Trades. A unique window into the world of oil trading and the traders that drive the markets. The book is a collection of forty trades, contributed by the traders themselves, which span the breadth and scope of oil trading. Owain walks us through four of the best stories, as well as why he decided to write the book and what he learned in the process about what makes a trader successful and com...
Jan 26, 2022•44 min•Ep. 80
Over the past 50 years, nuclear’s share of global power generation has consistently failed to meet predictions. Now installed capacity is declining and the fleet is aging. Why? Have we seen “peak nuclear”? And what are the consequences for the power markets? Now, many see nuclear as having a key role to play in the energy transition, especially with the concept of Small Modular Reactors. Will this too fail to meet expectations? In this episode we look at the economics, technology and policy envi...
Jan 19, 2022•59 min•Ep. 79
PPAs unlocked the power of renewables leading to the sectors incredible rise over the past decade. These long term agreements, primarily selling the power to utilities, provided the foundation for a whole slate of new developers to create wind and solar farms across Europe and US. Everything worked well in a decade of low prices and low volatility. Then came 2021 and these long term PPAs created an existential risk to certain participants. Utilities have faced huge margin calls to manage their e...
Jan 12, 2022•51 min•Ep. 78
Fertilizers sit at the very heart of the commodities world. Their components are both mined and derived from hydrocarbons while their use underpins the agri sector. A truly global commodity but dominated by a handful of producers and traders. After a decade of low prices, last year saw prices quadrupled driven by energy price rises, shipping disruption and demand increase. What is the market structure? What does this all mean for market participants? Will fertilizers finally get a vibrant deriva...
Jan 05, 2022•51 min•Ep. 77
In this special end of year episode, host Paul Chapman reviews some of the major themes of 2021 covered in the podcast and comments on the plans for 2022. To find out more about HC and our talent advisory services in the energy & commodities sector visit www.hcgroup.global/hc-insider To connect with our host Paul Chapman, you can find him at www.linkedin.com/in/paulchapmanhc/ For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sect...
Dec 29, 2021•8 min•Ep. 76
Ukraine was the breadbasket and the energy engine for the Soviet Union. It was also the main energy transit route connecting the East to Europe. Now, after years of underinvestment in production it faces an energy deficit, and due to the uncertain political and security environment its role of gas transistor is rapidly disappearing. How can Ukraine meet its energy shortfall? What is the opportunity to invest in the Ukraine in this sky high energy price environment? What is the political environm...
Dec 22, 2021•40 min•Ep. 75
There is a fundamental mismatch between forecasted demand and supply for those metals vital for energy transition and EVs. What are the supply challenges? And what are the solutions, if stated goals and public demand are to be met? What roles will policy, investment and market solutions play and how can the metal producers, traders and consumers prepare and profit from what will undoubtedly be one of the biggest stories in commodities over the next decade. Our guest, Chris Berry, founder of Hous...
Dec 15, 2021•48 min•Ep. 74
Technology is revolutionizing agriculture and its markets. Over the last two decades, rapid strides have been made in the business of farming. Genetics is de-commoditizing crops; in the future, constituent yields of oils and proteins will be far more likely to drive pricing than crop itself. Automation of planting, plant care and harvesting is boosting yield. Both technologies are tackling sustainability and driving the drastic reinvention of farm equipment and practices. At the heart of all thi...
Dec 08, 2021•41 min•Ep. 73
Emerging technologies, such as blockchain and artificial intelligence are unlocking the capacity to efficiently trace, track and share ownership of physical assets at a granular level. Digitalization not only provides the ability to interconnect entire value chains from origin through to trading but can also give commodities utility as a form of payments. Could commodities become new currencies, powering circular economies that de-risk all participants? Could the future take us back to a barter ...
Dec 01, 2021•53 min•Ep. 72
Are we in a super-cycle or is it a chimera generated by the short-term impacts of COVID and trade wars? What’s the role of energy transition and redistributive policies around the world? How long will it last and how high will prices go? This episode is a recording of a panel discussion which host Paul Chapman moderated at the Reuters Events Commodity Trading 2021. The panelists represent the leading economists in the commodities world: Jeff Currie, Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman...
Nov 24, 2021•34 min•Ep. 71
With COP26, voluntary carbon credits, Green Financing and shrinking opportunities in established markets, energy investors and producers are looking to emerging and frontier markets for future projects. Such projects presents great challenges, some new and some old. In this episode, our guest Francis Ugboma guides us through some of the additional complexity and hurdles to take on this growing sector. Francis has a long career in energy and emerging markets and is the author of the recently publ...
Nov 17, 2021•34 min•Ep. 70
Demand for commodity financing is skyrocketing as prices, volumes and margin calls are on the rise. However, after a decade of low demand, low returns and pressure from a variety of sources, the supply of liquidity is far more constrained. Many banks, who had prominent roles in commodity finance in the 2000s have pulled back entirely while newer entrants often lack the deep product expertise to provide the services needed. Now volatility, high prices and supply chain challenges have left traders...
Nov 10, 2021•46 min•Ep. 69
Record prices, extreme volatility, net-zero carbon demands, liquidity challenges and disrupted supply chains are the ‘new normal’ in commodities. Planning for 2022 and beyond in this environment is incredibly hard. In this episode, we go into the boardrooms of traders, producers and consumers to understand the challenges they face and the decisions to make to survive and thrive in this uncertain world. Our guest is McKinsey’s Partner Xavier Veillard, who leads the commodity trading practice. Xav...
Nov 03, 2021•40 min•Ep. 68
In this episode, we explore the hidden, dark side of the energy transition. The West offshored to Asia the pollution stemming from the mining and processing of the key metals and products needed for the modem world, from electric cars to defense technology. In doing so has it also irrevocably ceded dominance to China in the future digital and energy economy? And in a world of rising prices, the EV revolution and increasing tension, will these metals become the new strategic resource and how far ...
Oct 27, 2021•52 min•Ep. 67
Hydrogen is touted as a key component in energy transition, providing a carbon-free source of energy from transportation to heating our homes, while conveniently using existing oil & gas infrastructure and reserves. If so, why haven’t we built a hydrogen economy already? Is the hydrogen economy more hype than hope? What are its challenges from the immutable laws of thermodynamics, to technology, to safety and cost that have limited it to date? And as the commodity community begins to focus o...
Oct 13, 2021•56 min•Ep. 66
The shipping market is treacherously cyclical. Adding the pandemic, digitization, trade wars and energy transition has made this lynchpin of the global energy markets one of most challenging segments to operate in and to plan for the future. What drives the tanker market? What are the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic? What does digitization mean for the market structure and talent? And just what will energy transition mean for owners, operators and traders over the next decade. Our g...
Oct 06, 2021•54 min•Ep. 65
