Recorded December 17 2023 Description In this final Frankly of 2023, Nate outlines some global themes that are worth keeping an eye on in 2024. From climate change to domestic and global politics to an unstable financial system, world events continue to converge. How will the social fabric of our society respond as changes to our current way of life continue to grow? How do these seemingly isolated events interconnect and enhance each other? How will governments, businesses, and individuals resp...
Dec 18, 2023•15 min
On this episode, Arthur Berman returns to unpack the complexity underpinning the oil trends of the last 75 years and what new data can tell us about availability in the coming years. After decades of declining oil production in the United States, the past decade of rising oil extraction has eased many worries about peak oil. But the past few years of continued growth have been obtained by using “a larger straw”, merely delaying the inevitability of the depletion of a finite resource. Art present...
Dec 13, 2023•2 hr 30 min•Ep. 101
On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by four professionals with decades of experience working with low-income communities, Stephanie Hoopes, Peter Kilde, Marc Perry, and Dalitso Sulamoyo to discuss the state of poverty in the United States. Even in the wealthiest country in the world, poverty is a pernicious problem - and in a future that is more resource constrained it will only get worse. Do the current official measurements of poverty accurately portray the living standards of most Amer...
Dec 10, 2023•1 hr 23 min
In this week’s Frankly, we join Nate in a fascinating thought experiment imagining participants in this week’s COP 28 in Dubai are liberated from the usual social sorting mechanisms which constrain real, forthright, challenging conversation around solving our most dire issues. What questions might participants ask at COP28 if there were no fear of losing social status and how might this liberation change the conversation around global heating? As social primates, there is a stainless steel ceili...
Dec 08, 2023•13 min
On this special 100th episode, Nate is interviewed by his friend and colleague in the metacrisis space, Kate Raworth. The conversation is a reflection on the past two years of podcasting – and how Nate’s worldview has evolved because of it. What fundamental concepts could help us better understand the trends happening around us and the potential futures they point to? With so many moving pieces, how can we begin to create a coherent story of the world around us and - even more difficult - start ...
Dec 06, 2023•2 hr 9 min•Ep. 100
On this episode, Nate is joined by co-founder of GMO Financial Holdings, Jeremy Grantham, to discuss how finance, human population, ecology, and pollution interact to shape current trends and what they could tell us about the future. Mr. Grantham unpacks why the expectations of perpetual growth - in the economy, standards of living, and finance - are not so likely and that when looking at the system holistically we should expect large paradigm shifts in the coming decades. What can the pattern o...
Nov 29, 2023•2 hr 21 min•Ep. 99
In this Frankly, a follow up to “One Ring to Rule Them All”, Nate unpacks the common misconception that AI is the answer to all our energy and ecological problems, specifically climate change. As the development of AI continues to accelerate, many propose that we are entering the ‘Exponential Age’, yet what’s ignored is that we’ve just lived through an age of exponential impact on Earth’s systems. Under this same ‘operating system’, AI can at best act as a more powerful tool for the continuation...
Nov 17, 2023•17 min
On this episode, political economist Helen Thompson and Nate discuss how energy and geopolitics have interconnected over the past century, building to the entangled political relationships we see around us today. The dynamics of power on a global scale are complex - stemming from access to energy, financial control, military strength, credibility/trust, and much more - yet we can understand these a bit better by learning the history that shaped them. How have geologic provinces of energy dense c...
Nov 15, 2023•2 hr 1 min
Show Summary: On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by small-scale farmer Jason Bradford, permaculturist and documentarian Andrew Millison, regenerative agriculture activist Vandana Shiva, and regenerative farmer and educator Daniel Zetah to discuss the feasibility of a food system fully or mostly independent of fossil fuel inputs. While a non-industrialized agriculture system is certainly possible (it was the norm for the majority of human history), what that will look like and how we even...
Nov 12, 2023•2 hr 31 min
(Conversation recorded on November 2nd, 2023) Show Summary: On this episode, Nate is re-joined by risk expert Chuck Watson for a candid discussion of recent news regarding the nuclear developments between Russia and the United States. As the world’s attention is focused on the events in the Middle East, US testing and development of new nuclear weapons and Russia’s decision to pull out of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty last week have been overlooked and underreported by major media. Yet, in the big...
Nov 08, 2023•57 min
Recorded October 31 2023 Description In this Frankly, Nate expands on our conventional definition of “taxes” to highlight nine other categories that will ‘tax’ our modern lifestyles. Traditionally, when we think of net and gross income, we only think of direct government taxes that subtract from what we take home. What are other taxes - resulting from our system's ecology - which will factor into the way society can pay for the goods and services we’ve become used to? As converging global crises...
Nov 03, 2023•17 min
On this episode, Nate is joined by ‘permaculture’ author and educator David Holmgren to discuss his experience within the movement and what it might look like for more systems to be designed using permaculture in the future. While often thought to be an agricultural tool, permaculture thinking is meant for designing human systems to be embedded in nature - an important principle for a future where societies will need to re-synchronize with natural flows. What does it mean for permaculture design...
Nov 01, 2023•2 hr 40 min•Ep. 96
Recorded October 27 2023 Description In this forty-seventh Frankly, Nate reflects on…..Franklys. As real time global events move faster and faster, they alter the timing (and content!) of planned Frankly reflections on aspects of our global discourse. In light of this, Nate offers a raw take on events in Israel (and financial markets) and a growing list of upcoming topics relevant to the unfolding human predicament. The purpose of these Franklys is not to provide real time intel or analysis but ...
Oct 27, 2023•17 min
On this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist and policy ambassador Sir David King to unpack the current situation regarding Earth’s climate system and human response (or lack thereof) to the accelerating heating of the atmosphere. While there are many uncertainties this field still grapples with, the fundamentals of the rising average global temperature as a response to increasing man-made greenhouse emissions are widely recognized by the global scientific community. Yet - especially in ...
Oct 25, 2023•2 hr 50 min•Ep. 95
On this Special episode Nate speaks once again with risk expert Chuck Watson for a critical assessment of the unfolding situation around Israel which adds to the rapidly escalating dangers of our current geopolitical landscape. As tensions rise, the potential risks that geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East poses could spill over into energy, economic systems, and our social fabric - Chuck lends his deep expertise and decades of experience to shed light on these complex dynamics. How do ...
Oct 20, 2023•1 hr 14 min•Ep. 94
On this episode, Nate is joined by energy industry professional Joris van der Schot to explain the basics of oil refineries, their limitations, and other cultural narratives about energy. Oil is the lifeblood of our economies, yet most of us know so little about how it actually becomes all the different final products that we use. Just how massive is the scale of our energy consumption? How flexible and resilient are oil refineries to shifting oil demand? Can we keep an open mind to realistic an...
Oct 18, 2023•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 93
On this Reality Roundtable, philosopher and writer Dougald Hine, social scientist and farmer Chris Smaje, and ecologist and farmer Pella Thiel join Nate to discuss the future of food and community. Our disconnected relationship to agriculture and our neighbors have been shaped by a modern industrial society fueled by surplus hydrocarbon energy. What will these relationships look like in a lower energy future, where we need to once again work with each other and the land, rather than in isolation...
Oct 15, 2023•1 hr 28 min
In this Frankly, Nate shares his perspective on the recent events in the Middle East and how they could lead to a shortening of the timeline to The Great Simplification. For those fortunate to live outside the direct impacts of these conflicts, many feel pressure to stay informed about this turbulent, global landscape. Is it possible to also remain grounded in the present realities of our daily lives? How do individual responses to this past week’s geopolitical events vary depending on the livel...
Oct 13, 2023•11 min
On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil - from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, ‘oil is the economy’ and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larg...
Oct 11, 2023•2 hr 32 min•Ep. 92
In this Frankly, Nate refers to a favorite timeless book series, The Lord of the Rings, to describe ‘the nine rings for mortal men’ - behavioral tendencies that are common among humans based on our evolutionary nature but become counterproductive within modern culture. These traits drive the growth of the Superorganism through ‘one ring to rule them all’, the amassing of power and the synergy of agricultural surplus, fossil energy, money, and Artificial Intelligence. Can this out of control powe...
Oct 06, 2023•17 min
On this episode, financial analyst Luke Gromen joins Nate to discuss how the availability of cheap energy has underpinned our current financial architecture and expectations - and what peak cheap oil implies for the future. A central part of this story is the rise of the US dollar as a global reserve currency tightly linked with the ability to purchase oil - subsequently leading to the US becoming a major exporter of debt. How have countries with economies based on natural resources and manufact...
Oct 04, 2023•2 hr 31 min
On this episode, Nate is joined by Professor Nick Haddad, a conservation scientist with a focus on butterflies and other insects. Nick unpacks what decades of research have indicated about the declining state of insect populations, which act as the foundation of critical ecosystem functions. The overlooked degradation of butterflies, beetles, bees, ants, ladybugs, and countless other species have huge ripple effects across our local and global ecological functions - from a loss of bird populatio...
Sep 27, 2023•1 hr 26 min•Ep. 90
On this episode, Nate is joined by Sian Sutherland, a leader in the movement towards reducing the overconsumption of plastic and its waste. The modern era is dependent on fossil fuels for many reasons - one of the most covertly ubiquitous ones being plastic. Everyday we are surrounded by it - encasing our food, woven in the threads of our clothes, and even permeating into the water that we drink. How do we begin to break off this addiction to the convenience and utility of plastics? How does thi...
Sep 20, 2023•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 89
On this episode, neuroscientist and author Robert Sapolsky joins Nate to discuss the structure of the human brain and its implication on behavior and our ability to change. Dr. Sapolsky also unpacks how the innate quality of a biological organism shaped by evolution and the surrounding environment - meaning all animals, including humans - leads him to believe that there is no such thing as free will, at least how we think about it today. How do our past and present hormone levels, hunger, stress...
Sep 13, 2023•2 hr 58 min•Ep. 88
On this Reality Roundtable, marine biologist Daniel Pauly, ocean physicist Antonio Turiel, and paleobiologist Peter Ward join Nate to discuss the numerous oft-overlooked threats to the Earth’s great oceans. From overfishing and plastic pollution to climate change and acidification, the human system is assaulting one of the most important regulators for our climate and the largest habitat for life - anywhere. What early indicators of climate impacts are these great bodies of water showing us as w...
Sep 10, 2023•2 hr 30 min
In this Frankly, Nate describes the Carbon Pulse - a one time massive consumption of fossil hydrocarbons at a pace millions of times faster than they were created. He outlines the many shapes that this pulse could take, as well as some shapes it will never take. Compared to previous carbon pulses that led to mass and minor extinctions, how does the modern pulse compare? What can what we know about ecology and human behavior tell us about the most likely paths into descent? Can thinking about the...
Sep 08, 2023•21 min
On this episode, Nate is joined by Graham Palmer, a scholar and engineer in the field of energy. While this show frequently covers the importance of energy itself, this discussion focuses on how the ability to store and access energy has critically shaped societies. From agriculture, to wood, to coal, to oil, each transition has marked a new way for humans to interact with the world around them. What would it mean for economic growth if we no longer have access to these storable energies? What d...
Sep 06, 2023•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 87
In this week’s Frankly, Nate reacts to recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) critical of 2022 subsidies to fossil fuel. These subsidies - by IMF math totalling $7+ trillion - are not what they seem, resulting in widespread confusion on what is really going on. By peeling back the layers of the onion on these oft-misunderstood benefits - Nate outlines what comprises these fossil fuel subsidies, who receives them, the purpose they serve, and who benefits from them (spoiler alert...
Sep 01, 2023•13 min
On this episode, ‘Superorganisms’ converge as Nate is joined by economist and anthropologist Lisi Krall to discuss the evolutionary origins of our current systemic predicament. Starting with the Agricultural Revolution, the evolutionary conditions of surplus and ultrasociality have combined to shape the way humans interact with their environment, ultimately leading to our current out of control global economy. Is this global system an inevitable emergent phenomenon of the human condition? Does s...
Aug 30, 2023•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 86
In this week’s Frankly, Nate considers 7 different continuums of perspectives people use when taking part in a “systems” discourse, such as The Great Simplification podcast is attempting. In such complex and often controversial discussions, each of us has a point of view that stems from our own personal experiences, knowledge and identity - yet how we channel that point of view into the larger discourse matters. How does understanding our own perspectives potentially help us side-step mental roa...
Aug 25, 2023•15 min
