Could the Conservative Party cease to exist? Yes. Oh, absolutely, yes. Yes or no, I think it will continue. To I think it's, but it's completely profound, the crisis and as the party has moved steadily to the right, so things have got worse and worse. Liz Cross isn't here as far as we know, unless Therese corrects me. Does she want a defective reform? I don't believe that's the case at all. Would you like to? Do you fancy it? No, I know it's probably the most ridiculous question you've
ever asked. Every senior conservative you speak to here in the bars, at the parties says that they think Kemi Bade not will be out by December, by May, or certainly before the general election. How long does Kemi Bade not have? Hello and welcome to the forecast. We're in Manchester for the Conservative Party conference where Kemi Badnock is fighting
for her political life. She's making two speeches, a Blizzard of policy announcements less than a year after winning the leadership, and urging her party to regroup after it cycled through 5 leaders in eight years. But few here believe that she will survive much longer. Joining me to discuss all of this, Lord Daniel Finkelstein and Baroness Teres Coffee. We'll be asking how long can Badnock last? Who could replace her? And is a pact with Reform now the Tory Party's best hope?
Well, Denny Finkelstein has been a Blizzard of policy announcement, hasn't it? ECHR welfare, this and that. I mean, we were promised nothing until 2027, A period of thinking. What happened? Well, I think they do need to make some sort of impact. They, they, people want to think you've thought your policies through, but you can't wait forever.
And I did think actually both main parties made a mistake leaving the summer completely to Nigel Farage, who was able to make quite a big impact during that period. You can't really do that. So I maybe the experience of that made her move a bit quicker. But there's another reason, which is if you're going to do the ECHR policy, you don't really want to be arguing about that during the run up to the general election. You want to move on to the economy if you can.
And So what you want to do, and a bit like William Hague did immediately after you got elected on Europe, which is try to see whether you can discipline the party behind a single policy and then move on from it, whether that will prove actually possible. But I understand, I understand the timing issues at least right? But I mean, they're also talking about the economy and cutting benefits, basically ripping off reforms policy word for word. It's a bit panicked, isn't it Therese?
I didn't think it's panicked at all. I think they've gone through a lot of detailed work and actually some of what's been mentioned today. Helen Wheatley spoke about this a few months ago. So if nothing else, I think how can I put it, reforms seem to be just picking up almost like a bingo calls as without actually having done the work and the detail behind it. So in terms of I think the timing is right to use conference to start to do some significant policy
pronouncements. And for example, David Wolfson, we know him in the House of Lords. He's a respected guy. He's done a lot of work. Whether or not everybody will agree with him or not, that's a different story. But nevertheless, that's still shows the depth that Kemi and her team are going through in order to come up with, you know, justifying and affect their
decisions. I think also we've got to avoid kind of like journalistic overlay of kind of like, let's let me give you an example, Ed Miliband sandwich, right? You just take a sandwich. Everyone used it as a narrative to tell a story about Ed Miliband not being very appealing to the electorate. And there was David Miliband and the banana. Exactly. And that was exactly the same thing. There was nothing wrong with it whatsoever in either incident.
So the word panic or they're copying reform, reform. If reform and the conservatives have announced the same policy. The right question is, is this a good idea? We're overlaying split though we're over. Well, that's a that that we can come on to whether it's. A good idea? Well, is it, is it a good idea? Because there are splits on the ECHR, on welfare, on, on all sorts of. People. So I, I'm pretty sympathetic to the welfare policies actually.
I think in general you have to save money on welfare and we've also got to have a, a welfare system which people feel is reciprocal. I paid in, therefore I got out. So I think looking at the migration issue and welfare at the same time, that's not a bad idea. You won't save lots of money during that, but I think people it will help the fairness of the system.
On the ECHR. I've never been supportive of leaving, not because I'm actually hugely ideological about it, but I just question whether the wrench from the international system is worth the gain on migration. So my view is yeah. I mean, it won't make much difference, says David Gore for. A conservative I think that argument that's the argument that that I find most
persuasive. Look my my view is the world community of of people who are with small our Liberal Democrats has got to get a grip on migration and I am willing to be supportive of anything even things that I'd previously be hovering over and big amendments to the refugee convention, for example to get a grip on this. I'm just not absolutely clear
this would I? I think the proportion of our illegal immigration cases that are genuinely being held up by the Human Rights Act and the ECHR is small. I think there's a chance the Conservative Party will will have difficulties uniting over it. But more than that, I think the electorate, despite wanting migration to be dealt with, might actually balk at very big radical change. People are quite loss averse.
So I'm not sure from either a political or a policy point of view that it's the right the right policy. If I think back, Theresa May in 2016 said she'd rather leave the ECHR than leave the EU and she's no soft touch on a lot of this stuff. So I think there's been merit at investigating it and that's why I think David Wilson work is being useful for people who are concerned more generally about significant change in institutions.
But there's no doubt that legal judgements made not just in the UK but at the ECHR level, are getting further and further away from what was supposed to be the basis. Former Lord Chancellor He was writing in The Times this morning about the tiny proportion of cases that have actually been affected by the ECHR. I'm not an ideologue about either the Human Rights Act or the ECHRI, think both of those things are are pragmatic
matters. First of all, I don't think it's a big it's a solution to this problem. Secondly, it would be better if you're if we could have a European wide solution. So I think the right position for the Conservative Party would be to put pressure on the government to engage, which it doesn't do in big negotiation about it. But I'm dubious so. You're sounding like you're sounding like a member of the Labour government, I must say, But we'll come on. No, I'm not. I'm not.
I'm not asking this that's. Not that's not true at all. Sorry, No, that isn't true because I'm, I'm highly critical of their failure to lead international efforts to change the Human Rights Act and, and, and the ECHR. So, but you know, I'm not afraid of being said to have a position that might be the same as Shabana Mahmood on something. Liz Cross isn't here as far as we know, unless Therese corrects me. Is she? Do you think she might defect her reform or would she not?
Be welcome if Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because, and I'll tell you what he'll do if she tries to do this, not that you'll know much, much better. So you'll know whether she would do this. But Nigel Farage will say I'm not accepting somebody who thinks that Tommy Robinson is is unacceptably demonised. So he'll use that. What? She said in AUS.
Podcast she did and it's she'll use that Liz was somebody that I actually liked a lot and I I find her public contributions since she's lost Alicia completely baffling behaviour to be. Honest, she doesn't the dark side. Hasn't she? Well, you know, look, it depends whether the people have will have their own view about whether it's dark side or not, obviously. Well. All right, I'm well, as far as I'm concerned, yes, being the ally of Steve Bannon and and normalising Tommy Robinson is
the dark side, definitely. And I find that bewildering position for a Conservative who was senior enough to be the leader of the party to take. So I'm very I'm, I'm dismayed by it in the extreme. And but I don't think that I think that Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because he'd know what he was important. Does she want to defect to? Reform. I don't believe that's the case at all. Have you?
Spoken to her about it. I don't need to speak to her about it. She won't be defecting to reform so. Would you like to? Do you fancy it? No, honestly, it's probably the most ridiculous question you've ever asked. So you are Tory till the. Last breath, right? Through and through. I grew up in Liverpool, there was a little girl. I did have a Conservative MP. You haven't. Quite answered the question. What? Will you remain A Tory until you're dying breath? Yeah, right.
Of course. I mean, a lot of your colleagues are considering following the team Dory's, you know, I mean like Danny. Kruger, there's a brilliant sentence. A lot of our colleagues, a lot of our colleagues are not considering following the team. Torres, Danny. Kruger, I went on to say. Well, Jane Berry, Danny, So it's a very interesting question, one of the questions, I think some. People are keen for power and they see reform as the way to get there.
One of the questions that was asked about Charlie Kirk, interestingly was and, and I hope you start to come back to your point about Danny Kirk, was, was Charlie Kirk far right? And what they failed to appreciate is what he was, was actually a Christian fundamentalist and his politics were very much influenced by that. And it wasn't really easy to put that on the right left spectrum. Some of it was highly compassionate. Some of it is what we traditionally regard as far
right. OK, But you couldn't put him on that spectrum. A bit similar. Danny's politics are very difficult for me to to kind of compare myself to because we start with such different. Some of his answers is because Jesus said so, right? And which he genuinely and seriously means. And I've got huge respect for people of faith, just that isn't my fate. So it's very hard for me to to relate to it sometimes. So you are. You're you're a Christian, you know, do you see that appeal?
And also you said something very interesting that I wanted you to expand on that You said a lot of your colleagues who are thinking about defecting to reform, they sense power I. Don't want to give you the impression that I know lots of people who are thinking are defecting to reform because I don't, but I can see that some people are attracted by the basis of getting re elected and getting into power.
Quite a lot of the people. And Nadine has perhaps an unusual exception that she did serve in cabinet, as did Jake Berry. But most of the people who've moved didn't really reach that level under a Conservative government. So perhaps they see an opportunity there and that enough of the policies are similar, But nevertheless, I actually don't particularly know people who are lining up to jump to reforms.
I mean, obviously lots of people who voted Conservative are at the moment intending to vote reform. That will mean a proportion of people in the party want to do that. The interesting thing is actually not how many have done that, but how few and how not. Stunning. I mean that Danny Kruger is a mid level person. How, how not that senior has been, but you know, who knows the the the kind of maths of it suggests that that will they'll be quite a bit more.
So, staying on the maths, I want to just propose a thought experiment for you both. You know you're on the threshold of a general election. The polls are still the way they are. If it is the price of getting yourselves back into power to do a merger or some kind of pact with Reform that sees Nigel Farage installed in Downing St. would. You do it. Depends who. I know this is funniest questions. It depends exactly who Reform is, and we don't know that question.
It depends whether it's the party that Nigel Farage wants to produce or the party that he's going to produce if. They stay away from the Tommy Robinsons in the far right. I don't think I, I, that's, that's not enough myself, by the way, for me, because obviously I'm not, I don't have Nigel
Farage's politics either, right? I, the question is whether he, whether he's going to take that party and move it to war with Danny Kruger back towards the Conservative Party and be a group of people with whom the Conservative Party can have a relationship. It wouldn't be my personal relationship, right? So if he does that though, you can see a lot of people saying right this. Is our best. There's a lot of there's not this, not what I think is going to happen.
So I think I, I don't think this party's, the Reform Party's got to problems along with its big strength. So it has a huge demographic. It has got a clear diagnosis of what's wrong with the country, which I don't have to agree with. But you know, there are bits that I agree with, but I don't think it's the central thing. But what it also has is it's, it's incredibly reliant on Nigel Farage. And secondly, it is pulled
towards the online right. And Nigel Farage may or may not have the power to keep it from that. And I just don't know the answer to that question. And I don't want to be part of, you know, an Elon Musk party or a Donald Trump party. And personally, and I think the chances are pretty high that's actually the party that Nigel Farage is going to end up with. And.
But Theresa, if it's if it's a question of being out of power in the wilderness for generations, possibly ceasing to exist as an independent party, would you advocate doing a deal with Nigel Farage on those? Grounds I'm not very big on doing hypotheticals. So I think, I think that's not. A deal because he doesn't think. We're the same.
Well, I think Reform are benefiting from a frustration of the British public of a plague on both your houses to Conservatives who they chopped out and then a very frustrated with Labour. And that's what we're seeing. We're seeing something a somewhat simplistic approach of reform on how would they'd solve every problem going. So we're not going to do that. It's an. SDP flash in the pan potentially. Don't we? I don't want to say flash in the pan, no. Reforms much more than that.
So the the reason why reforms much more than that is that the working class conservative vote with the small C conservative vote is much larger than I think was the was the size of the SDP willing middle class, particularly not in the early 1980s. So it's got a much more solid basis and it probably can reach 3031%. Now the thing with 3031% is in 1931, thirty percent produced an absolute calamity for the Labour Party, right?
In 19, 2019, 32% produced an absolute calamity for Jeremy Corbyn. In twenty, 2433% produced a landslide for Keir Starmer. So it just depend, you know that isn't, that is not an unbeatable proportion of the population. Right, but Teresa, you didn't quite answer my question in if it is the only way of the Tories surviving getting back into power, do you do a deal with with Reform? I don't think Kemi will do that at all. Well, no, but Kemi might not be there.
We'll come on to that in a minute. We had a we. Just so be clear, we had an electoral pact with Danny Kruger until about 3 weeks ago. So that answers your question, right? So there are certainly people in Reform. I had a long standing political relationship and friendship with Tim Montgomery who's now in Reform. We've had a, I had a tempestuous and very difficult political relationship with Nadine Doris, but it was electoral pact.
OK. So the question of whether Therese and I could have an electoral pact with, with some of the people in Reform obviously because we've had one, right? Could we, could we have an alliance with some of the voters of Reform? Yes, because conservative governments have relied on those voters repeatedly. Well, I suppose, But the question is the Reform is an organization. So yeah, we do not yet know whether Reform is going to be
large enough. This is not probably a moot question because Reform doesn't want a relationship with the Conservative Party. So all these hypotheticals piled on top of the others. I mean, it's not mere political evasion not to answer this. But the Tories have no God-given
right to exist, do they? I mean, there are people, a lot of people around here and you look at how empty the exhibition hall is and we'll come back to that in a second, but there's there is an existential crisis looming over this party. I think the Conservatives are going to be still obviously contesting the next election in a fulsome way and and deserve to, you know, we have a proud history in this within our country. We have had electoral success.
Yes, we are going through a very difficult moment. I'm not pretending otherwise. But the party made a choice of leader last year. Kemi is now at the stage starting to roll out policies and I think that we just need to continue to build with the aspect of credibility. This party could cease to exist. It's completely profound, the crisis and basically as the party has moved steadily to the right to try to to win these vote, things got worse and
worse. Because the obvious thing the Conservative Party offers is a broad coalition for people of the, of the, of the rights. Well, it certainly does, but but it's the, the, the truth is that the Conservative Party is needs every needs everybody that was in it, right. It needs to build a broad coalition and it the what the the the one advantage that the Conservative Party retains over reform is that I think it's possible for a form to get 32% of the vote for a for a project of the right.
You can only get 40% if it becomes the seriously left wing party on economics could do that, but then it would be very off putting to all conservatives. It would cease to be competing with conservatives in that way and it'd become a broader party. The Conservative Party has, can and has been a party of 40%. But this question you're asking of us, it's reasonable to ask of us.
The governing party only has two or three points more than the Conservative Party. So this I realised that there's the whole thing is because they're in power. This it's not unreasonable by the way, but because they're in power, everybody turns up to watch the governing party, most of whom were what Maurice Glassman called the lanyard class. In other words, it's like British Gas is there right rather than delicate.
But every all of the main political parties have got a big challenge because it's fragmenting, which is Which is why Keir Starmer won the last general election with an objectively tiny proportion of voters, a massive landslide with 33% of. The voters just answer yes or no question. Could the Conservative Party cease to exist? Yes. Oh, absolutely, yes. Yes or no, I think it will continue. To I think it's but you asked me yes or no, But is it likely? No, I don't think that's what's.
Going to happen. OK. How long does Kemi Veit not have? Well, I'm I'm interested by people just saying this is a make or break conference. I think this is going to be a good conference for Kemi. I think there are definitely, I'm sure there are MPs who undoubtedly have already decided that they want a different leader, but yeah, and a lot.
Of a lot are on manoeuvres. Aren't, as a significant number I speak to, are also very conscious of the recent history, don't believe that chopping and changing the captain is going to make a difference. They have confidence in aspects of Kenny's approach in trying to do some proper thinking. I guess one of the things, I forgive me, Danny has got a really interesting experience and of being in government or not as a minister, but. Behind the scenes.
Guiding and I remember a discussion I had with Kemi, I can't quite recall when, but it's just like what are the challenges when you come into a cabinet role, when you come into government several years down the line, you it's actually difficult to bring new thinking. It's difficult to you've got your legacy that or the manifestos back from 2010 and that you have to deliver and you don't really have any choice in that unless or don't take the role.
So this is the first opportunity in a while that the concertos have had to not trash try and trash the past, but to have a proper thing about what the conservative solution is for this this phase of the 21st century. People always say, by the way, just to back up that they would say, you know, the Tories need a period in opposition in order to think. And then you get into
opposition. Everyone goes, I can't believe you're rethinking, you know, and didn't isn't that what everyone told the Conservative body to do? Every senior conservative you speak to here in the bars, at the parties says that they think Kemi Baidenot will be out by December, by May or certainly before the general election. But I've certainly heard that, obviously, because, you know, any political journalist has done that, has heard that, and I've heard that too. Not sure.
I think it's a very sensible thing to do and. But it's inevitable. No, it's not. I think politics is never inevitable. Do I think it's a high probability? Yeah, I think it is a high probability just judging by talking to Conservative MPs and activists. The thing that holds it back are two things. First of all, it's always harder to remove the leader than it
seems. There's a lot of people, for example, who were on the front bench when it and they'll be as a proportion that's larger right then who don't then want to resign. They the moment somebody proposes no confidence, they immediately come and say, actually, we're on side. So it, it, it, it's hard to, if you keep your relations in good order, it can be hard to do. Boris Johnson had to really work very hard on tipping himself
out. But naturally the experiences if you if you do have one of these votes of confidence, it's very destabilising. I think it's she's clearly got some difficulties because the party's trying casting around for anything to do that will remote change the situation. The only thing that would change it. I think this isn't quite the right strategy, but actually I don't think she's a bad public performer, for example.
And I think that the electorate, there's actually, you know, the polling that I've seen, the electorate is they don't know who she is. Yeah, literally every pollster says. They that's true, but those people don't know lots of political personalities. I mean, we did a poll for the Times. We were asking people what do you think of Keir Starmer? And one of the people said, what's a Keir Starmer, right.
So people do people do people don't know who the leader of the opposition is a lot of the time they didn't know Jeremy Corbyn was for example, even though you're quite well in 2017. So that's not my critical problem with that. My critical problem is whether or not just when they do see her, they, they, they actually quite like they're ready to hear more, but they haven't heard more. So there are two questions. Yeah, they. Can't say a single. Thing can she force away onto
the political agenda. Hard but not impossible, more made more difficult. If there's a kind of default every time you do something, you're panicking sort of thing. But so that's up to the media a little bit as to whether we're going to cover what she says. And then when she does, do does she do? Does she have a strategy that broadens the Tory Party's appeal and doesn't just double down on something that doesn't seem to me to work?
So the broadening, the appeal or re broadening is absolutely key. And going back to some, I won't say back to basics as such, but going back to something simpler, being on the side of people trying to get on the housing ladder and challenging the cost of living or tackling, that has to be the way forward. And I do believe that's what we're seeing.
But given that we've all heard the open discussion about her leadership, Rob Jenrick has been quite careful not to do an Andy Burnham. He's not really put himself out there as much as he perhaps could have done this week so far. Other contenders? James Cleverly? Mel Stride? Chris Philp? Could they skip a generation, go for Claire Coutinho? Katie Lamb? I mean, who do you reckon might be the next leader?
Whoever and whenever? That I'm not going to go down this route because I do think there are still actually rather a lot of sensible heads left in the Conservative parliamentary party. Who have just have seen what's happened in the last five years and that chopping and changing has not helped anybody. It's not helped the conservatives. OK, who are you? Impressed with? That's a different question. I'll ask you that one as. Well, it's an entirely different
question. So I think James Cleverly has got a broader appeal and I like that at A at a different end of the spectrum, both two of the people you mentioned, Katie Lamb and Claire Coutinho, great capable people. So is. There an argument for skipping a generation. I don't. Well, I don't do. You mean by that 2024 intake? There's clearly an argument. Yeah, potentially or just
younger. No, I don't think it would make any difference to do that unless you unless you were able to change your strategy at the same time, which the Conservative Party I don't think is about to do. So no is actually the answer. I I would not. I think that setting down the route of removing can be to replace it with someone else who people also won't have heard of isn't a particularly good idea. Well, that. Does that does apply to James Kevin as?
Well, sorry, I didn't say that it should drop by. So you asked me who I was impressed by and what? Recommends him to you. Is that you? I'm not in favour of doing it at all, but if you. Had to. But I don't have to. OK, Therese well. If you had to. I think there's some interesting thought processes. I mean, Nick, Timothy, I think is brings a lot of interesting
thinking to, to to that. I mean people, a lot of people have different backstories and how they've got into into politics, got into Parliament. I think I don't want to set hairs running particularly. I think Kemi made some changes to her team. I think Helen Whiteley's doing a good job at DWPI, think she's thinking things through in a good systematic way. So I'm I'm not looking for other people to try and knock Chemi off.
One aspect of her, what she's doing I really approve of, which is she is giving a bit of serious thought to how things will work. She does think that is a bit of the conservative bill that I've, I've obviously said I don't think it's quite the right strategy. That bit I'm really strongly for. So funny if the the bit that people have given her the most grief for, which is, you know, why are we waiting for her to
say things? She does seem to me, and the Wolfson report was an example of that on the ECHR, not a policy that I agree with, but some trouble. They took some trouble to, to see whether the policy, what the implications of it would be. That's a good strategy. Just finally, I mean, I know you've both attended a hell of a lot of conferences. Is this the emptiest conference that you've seen in terms of the conference stands here, the tiny
hall, the number of delegates? Well, I, my very first was back in 1991 when I was a student. So I think it is, it is slow down on members numbers. But what I always love, what I love coming to conference is to get to talk to the members. And understandably we were in government for so long, quite a lot of people get squeezed out. You know, the lobbyists were
here, they're not. It was very busy last year, I think because of the leadership contest and not quite the same this year, but I actually enjoy the opportunity to go and talk and see what's going on in the grass roots in different parts. Of time. More time to talk to fewer people. I went to the 1989 SDP conference in Coventry and I was on the national executive and almost nobody spoke and we had to go and rush into the bars to get people so the debates would last long enough.
And then during the last, after the end of the leaders speech, David Owen's speech, we all stood up, moved our chair back and knocked the platform over. So this conference is not the emptiest conference I've ever. But it's the emptiest Tory. It's still. Expensive to come to Manchester. I mean, genuinely, those sound like an invasion. I haven't been around, but when you saw the pictures of Mel Stride's conference, it clearly was. Yeah, clearly was. And that's not that surprising.
I mean that all we're seeing is what you can read in the opinion polls. Just. The fringe is still busy, the fringe is busy, and the fringe has always been the most interesting bit of.
Conference, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think that's a reasonable observation, but I'm I'm not sure that it changes anything to make it. We know that the Conservative Party's in a lot of trouble, OK, But I still had, there's still something in the Conservative idea which and potential breadth that gives it some possibility for recovery, even though it looks distant to me at the moment. Danny Finkelstein, Torres Coffee, Thank you both very much for joining us. That is it for the forecast.
Thank you very much for watching.