It’s another febrile day in Westminster with Prime Minister Keir Starmer - for now - clinging on but he's far from safe as a succession of ministers have stepped down, with more expected to go. On top of that, the man who has become the PM's nemesis in the north, Andy Burnham, is apparently down in London. Shopping? Plotting? So it looks like Keir Starmer might just hit the current average tenure of British Prime Ministers - two years, but no more. Is this really the way to run a country in the ...
May 12, 2026•35 min
Keir Starmer survives the day - but the pressure on his leadership is growing. Today, he attempted to shore up his position with a speech focused on his vision for Labour, saying his government must go beyond “incremental change” and be the party of a “stronger and fairer” Britain. But despite this, at least 55 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable for a leadership election to take place. And inside Labour, the conversation has already moved on to who would replace him and two...
May 11, 2026•33 min
Labour is reeling after bruising local election results - losing ground to the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right - and questions are now swirling around Keir Starmer’s leadership. Is this just a difficult moment for Labour, or the start of something much bigger? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, former Keir Starmer Chief of Staff Sam White, and political strategist Scarlett Maguire to unpack what the results re...
May 08, 2026•31 min
As Gulf leaders look to Beijing for guarantees Washington no longer seems able to give, China is suddenly at the centre of diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed and Iran’s foreign minister both arrived in Beijing within days of each other, seeking a way out of a blockade that has choked shipping routes, pushed tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, and rattled global markets. So where does this leave Donald Trump’s efforts to revive a deal that could reopen the Strai...
May 07, 2026•42 min
It’s the dirty secret at the heart of England’s waterways. The water companies publicly insist they are cleaning up their act, but privately they have been allowed to avoid prosecution for years through a little-known mechanism which lets a company admit fault and pay money to a good cause instead of facing criminal charges. The Environment Agency says the payments are a “brilliant tool”, faster and simpler than taking a case through a lengthy court process. But Channel 4 News has uncovered how ...
May 06, 2026•33 min
After a spate of attacks and foiled plots against British Jews since the the events of October 7th and the Iran war, including the stabbing of two men in Golders Green yesterday, many Jewish people say they do not feel safe in the UK any more. So, why have we seen this horrifying rise in attacks? And what can be done about it? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy spoke to a range of guests from across the legal, cultural and security landscape: journalist Hadley Freeman, British...
Apr 30, 2026•40 min
As the UAE decides to leave the powerful OPEC oil cartel, Pakistan has opened itself as a land corridor that could help Iran get around the Strait of Hormuz blockade - so where do these developments leave Donald Trump’s long term plans for the Iran war and the shape of the Middle East? In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators Matt Frei and Mark Urban delve into the latest developments in Washington and Tehran and look at how Hezbollah’s new drone tactics could be forcing Israel to recalculate ...
Apr 29, 2026•31 min
King Charles heads to Washington at a moment of extraordinary tension. The visit comes just days after an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump - and against the backdrop of a deepening war in Iran, strained UK-US relations, and growing questions about America’s global role. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy asks whether Britain’s most powerful tool, soft power, can hold up in the face of Trump’s unpredictable politics. From attacks on the UK Prime Minister and Brit...
Apr 27, 2026•39 min
Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran appears to be holding - or is it? Iran has reportedly seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as America attacks tankers and boats linked to Tehran - and then there doesn’t appear to be any hint of any imminent peace talks In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and defence analyst Mark Urban discuss whether the Iran war has reached a stalemate and ask, with China watching, has this all fatally undermined US power on the world stage? T...
Apr 23, 2026•33 min
Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador by Sir Keir Starmer to the US was a rush-job, carried out under an 'atmosphere of pressure' from 10 Downing Street and a 'dismissive attitude' to security vetting. That's the claim of Sir Olly Robbins, the sacked head of the foreign office as he was grilled by parliament's foreign affairs committee. So, is it now clear what happened behind the scenes? No 10 denies Robbins’ characterisation of events, but could this still be damning for Starmer's premie...
Apr 21, 2026•37 min
In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up. In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the immense challenges of delivering life-saving support in today’s fractured world. How ...
Apr 20, 2026•26 min
Peter Mandelson, the problem that won’t go away. Keir Starmer is once again fighting to save his political career, after saying he was not told Mandelson had failed security vetting ahead of his appointment as US ambassador. So what really happened? Is this a failure of leadership or does it point to a deeper rot inside Westminster? And either way, can Starmer survive it? On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee and Conservative MP Alic...
Apr 17, 2026•30 min
The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story. In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz, the question is whether this fragile pause is the start of a settlement, or simply a prelude to fur...
Apr 16, 2026•37 min
Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker. So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel? On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery and Times columnist and contributing editor Cindy Yu.
Apr 14, 2026•27 min
Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe. It’s a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the exact opposite? Could this mark a turning point not just for Hungary, but for Europe more broadly? A...
Apr 13, 2026•32 min
What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country. Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they’ve even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants? On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined from Beirut by Lebanese journalist Rania Abou...
Apr 10, 2026•31 min
It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”. So is there any chance it could lead to a last peace? Is this a moment where a global economic crisis was averted at the last minute, or just postponed? ...
Apr 09, 2026•37 min
Wireless Festival has been cancelled, following the government’s decision to block Kanye West’s permission to travel to the UK. The American rapper, who’s now known as Ye, was due to headline the festival in Finsbury Park in the summer. He has a long history of antisemitic comments and actions, including writing a song glorifying Adolf Hitler. Mr West has blamed this on a brain injury and missed Bi-polar diagnosis. He has apologised and says he has reached out to the Jewish community in the UK. ...
Apr 07, 2026•28 min
NASA’s Artemis ll mission has blasted off to the moon - with the familiar rhetoric of exploration and human achievement. It’s the first crewed voyage out of low earth orbit in more than half a century - but behind the celebration - another story is taking shape. The modern ‘space race’ is a high-stakes contest for military, economic and technological dominance here on earth. A contest where whoever controls orbit, controls everything below. So what does Artemis tell us about this contest? About ...
Apr 02, 2026•41 min
Is President Trump on the cusp of pulling out of the Iran war or about to double down with boots on the ground? He’s lashed out again at his Nato allies threatening to abandon the alliance, raising questions not only about the future of the war, but the future of Western security itself. On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by General Sir Patrick Sanders, who has had a 40 year career in the British Army and rose to Chief of the General staff in 2022, before retiring two years la...
Apr 01, 2026•48 min
Donald Trump has told the UK to “go and get your own oil” from the Strait of Hormuz as Iran continues to block the crucial energy chokepoint and as reports circulate that the UK is to receive its last tanker of jet fuel from the Middle East this week. So what are the real risks to the UK economy, energy security, and global position as this conflict rumbles on? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei speaks to the CEO of energy consultancy firm Qamar Energy Robin Mills and money journalist an...
Mar 31, 2026•27 min
Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming. This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We explore Donald Trump's domestic political struggles and the nervous reactions of the global markets....
Mar 30, 2026•39 min
Social media giants Meta and Google have been found liable for building platforms that are addictive and a court has ordered them to pay millions in damages, but both firms say the case oversimplifies a complex issue and are expected to appeal the ruling. In this episode of The Fourcast, we break down the case and what it could mean for the future of Big Tech. Is this a genuine turning point - a potential “Big Tobacco moment” for Silicon Valley - or just another legal challenge that tech giants ...
Mar 26, 2026•28 min
President Trump is talking about deals to end the war with Iran, but Tehran says it’s “fake news” as they continue to exchange attacks with Israel. So where does this war go from here, and what does an endgame actually look like? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by Dr Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, associate professor Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St Andrews and retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.
Mar 24, 2026•32 min
Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran - or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Mar 23, 2026•28 min
Are American boots on the ground inevitable in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington’s strategy and whether the president has a clear plan. Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil hub? On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate Swanson, former National Security Council Iran desk official, and investigative journalist Ronen Ber...
Mar 20, 2026•38 min
Saudi Arabia is warning it may retaliate against Iran after fresh threats to oil and gas infrastructure as Donald Trump’s administration desperately tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With strikes hitting key energy facilities across the Gulf, this conflict is no longer just military - it’s an economic war with global consequences. So how far could this escalate? And what does it mean for energy prices, inflation and the world economy? On this episode of The Fourcast Matt Frei is joined by Th...
Mar 19, 2026•26 min
18 days into a war that has reshaped the Middle East, the question that matters most is also the hardest to answer: who is actually winning. Washington says Iran is collapsing under the weight of thousands of strikes. Tehran claims it is bleeding its enemies and outlasting them. Oil prices are surging, missiles are still flying and the region is on edge. In today’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is in Israel and he speaks to two people who understand this conflict from the inside out. Emile ...
Mar 17, 2026•46 min
Across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, artificial intelligence is reshaping how wars are fought.AI is helping militaries process intelligence, identify targets and make decisions at a rapidly accelerating pace. Some believe this is the beginning of an AI revolution in warfare - one that could eventually lead to autonomous weapons and algorithmic battlefields. So how far has this transformation already gone? Is Iran the first AI war and is the world ready for what’s coming? On thi...
Mar 12, 2026•35 min
The conflict in Iran is entering its second week, and the shockwaves are rippling across the globe - through global markets, shipping routes and regional security alliances. In the past 24 hours, multiple ships have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route effectively closed by Iran, and now the Iranian regime has said the country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was “lightly injured” after an Israeli airstrike. In today’s episode of The Fourcast, British‑Iranian comedian and c...
Mar 11, 2026•25 min
