The starter pistol was fired last night #10 declared a leadership election and basically said coming up and go if you're hard enough. All they have is their own thirst for dominance. You end up in this absurd situation where we're talking as though Kieran Weirs are two radically different politicians with radically different visions of the future. They're. Not many unpopular politicians have people that will not desert them because they believe them to be authentic, at least to
some things and some principles. And that is what Kier Starmer is completely lacking. And it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party is completely stuffed. Hello and welcome to the forecast. The tracers analogy was just too easy. Wes Streeting claims he's the victim of the worst attack on a faithful since Joe Marla was banished from the final. But who were the other players at the table seeking to banish a
Wes Streeting challenge? Senior advisers to Keir Starmer is all we're getting from the political editors who took the calls with all eyes wondering if the top man, Morgan McSweeney, had authorised it. Streeting says whoever was behind the briefings should be sacked and Lucy Powell was right about the toxic culture in Downing St. Shabana Mahmoud's team also deny that she's a traitor. But the manifesto busting budget is looming. Labour is facing horrific poll racings.
Its MPs are in despair and Nigel Farage is riding high after months of torment. Is Keir Starmer now at the fire of truth and facing his end game? Joining me is the Labour strategist and commentator John Mcternan. He was Tony Blair's political director, the pollster Scarlett McGuire and the author and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams. Thank you all very much for joining us, John. This is an extra, an ordinary exercise in shooting yourself in the foot.
I cannot believe it. This is so destructive and it comes from #10 So the Prime Minister's got a choice. He should sack Wes if he's lost confidence in him, or should stack sack whoever authorised or made this briefing or both. And if you don't clean out #10 then I think Wes Treaty would be advised to resign from the cabinet. No confidence from the government, the Prime Minister and actually launch a leadership bid. This is only going to be resolvable if there is a
contest, I mean. Did where's Streeting ramp up the pressure this morning when he said yes they should be sacked and that there is a toxic culture and Downing St. Lucy Powell was right all along. I don't believe that any staffer, however senior they are, should brief against a cabinet minister. Staffers are always junior to MPs and ministers and that is a breach of your contract, it's a breach of your ethics, it's a breach of your loyalty to the political party you're a member of.
And I think that's the problem here, that once this becomes open and clear, there's a choice. And the Prime Minister who does find it hard to make choices has either either backs his staff or he backs his cabinet minister. He's got to choose between the two of them. And if he doesn't, it doesn't. If he doesn't, the crisis will carry on. And even if he does, the crisis is there, it's been revealed. Right.
But is it enough to sack a middle ranking or even senior advisor when it's Morgan McSweeney who runs Downing St. He's the chief of staff. He is the architect of this government. He's often described as the man who actually chose Keir Starmer rather than the other way around. Is he the one who needs to go? Look, what I think what the party needs is it's an honest
debate about the direction. The big dividing line in British politics at the moment is between people who like to reform or the Tories who want to cut public services and Labour who won't, and the Greens who've got fanciful ideas about wealth taxes. This has got to go back to the politics of it. But while it's about personalities, either political personalities have a fight and sort it out, or the briefers are dealt with.
OK, well, that, that's, that's John not, not quite wanting to call for Morgan Mcsweeney's head by the sound of it. Zoe, I mean, you have been, you described yourself, I think, as drifting away from labour over a period of time. I mean with your head in your hands. I mean, listen, I, I, I really feel like we're, we're sort of kind of punching in the dark here a little bit. The fact is that Morgan McSweeney, you said yourself, did he put Kieran? Did he choose Kier rather than
Kier choosing him? Certainly he was. Certainly that was the rumour at the time that Kier became leader. But there were also rumours at the time that Kier was only ever a placeholder. They didn't expect to win the 2024 election. He was going to be the placeholder candidate to get the left of the party round back, back to the kind of land of reality. And then he was going to be
replaced by where's anyway. These are all rumours, of course, but what, what the, the, the point is that when you have a small group of people operating as though this party is a plaything and the left is a pain that needs to be neutered or expelled, and they don't have an actual project, all they have is their own thirst for dominance.
You're you end up in this absurd situation where we're talking as though Kieran Weirs are two radically different politicians with radically different visions of the future. They're not. They look exactly the same. The reason they look exactly the same is that they both look very technocratic. They they look like, you know, robot guys who will just make things work. People who say, oh, Wes is much more charismatic than Kia have been in Westminster so much too long.
They don't even understand what words mean anymore. We're streeting is not charismatic. Kiss Starmer is not charismatic. Nobody in the country is thinking, Oh, I can't wait till that absolute charm. Where's his impost? So we're, we're we're having this, we're conducting this as though there will be a material difference between those two leaders. We're really all we're watching is the kind of implosion of a senior, a kind of the most senior politicians in the
country not having a plan. Yes. I mean not having a plan. I mean, is, is, is the constant refrain, isn't it? And they keep trying to suggest that they do. But I mean as as somebody, you know, on the left, does this make you despair? Do you think this is making Labour supporters despair? Well, it's funny. It's funny to say that because as somebody on the left, I despaired ages ago. I mean, basically Keir Starmer made his bid to become leader as
Corbyn in a suit. That's how he sold himself to the left of the party. That's why the members voted for him, W Streeting explicitly said in a Guardian interview four years ago. Maybe a little less. That's how you get round the party. You faint to the left and then you go right to get the country.
I know pollsters say that's the way to do it and this is just the kind of political truism, but actually what it's doing is completely corroding anybodies belief in the party as something that represents them if they have anything like a progressive platform. And I'm not talking about radical left wing left winger here. I'm not talking about communism. I'm talking about something as basic as defending refugee rights.
I'm talking about something as basic as not immediately meeting reform halfway, what with their own manoeuvrings, which they've done in plain sight without even the scantiest attempt to disguise it is basically say the Labour Party is no longer a home for people who have left wing views Now. Now they can read the consequences any which way they want. And I'm always here for conversations about, you know, why Kia didn't make more friends
in the parliamentary party. If he was going to start expelling left wing MPs, why didn't he make more friends with the centrist MPs? How come W Treating has got such a March on him? Why, why couldn't he broker some kind of compromise with Angela? You know, I could, we could do that conversation forever. But the truth, the truth is if the if, if Labour kind of occupies that space of the left while cleaving to no left wing principles, they're leaving.
They're opening up a vacuum that John Mcternan might, might laugh at the Green Party all he wants, but somebody will fill the vacuum. Right, well, we'll, we'll come back to whether John's laughing at the Greens, but let's go to Scarlet and break this down a little bit. I mean, first of all, how much trouble is Starmer in and is it possible to say whether it's a recoverable position?
Yeah, well, so I actually just want to pick up on something Zoe just said about sort of pollsters saying it's the right thing to do to, you know, feign one way for the membership and then govern and completely another. I mean, I'm, I disagree with any poster to say that. And I think actually a lot of Starmer's problems and the reason why I believe his brand is irrecoverable is because the public have completely made-up their mind on Keir Starmer.
And the number one problem they have with him is a sense that he is untrustworthy, that he goes back on what he says and that he breaks his promises. And actually an awful lot of that stems from when he was in lead of the opposition and when he did break a lot of those pledges that he stood to be leader of the Labour Party on. And that's been his chronic problem with his brand ever since.
It's why, for example, I think breaking manifesto promises around the budget is going to be a politically bad thing for Keir Starmer specifically. Even if he says it is Rachel Reeves decision, I think it will still reflect very badly on on Keir Starmer. But what we see and one of the reasons why again I say his brand is irrecoverable, is he is now by far the least popular Prime Minister we've had. I mean, Liz Truss didn't make it this far.
And so it's all going to put a slight caveat out there. Although it was comparable numbers actually, but worse than Rishi Sunak, worse than Boris Johnson. And he's only 18 months in after this massive majority. And I think the thing that would really worry me if I was in the Labour Party about Keir Starmer is that he has no flaw. So at the moment he is, unless, sorry, even Jeremy Corbyn is less unpopular than Keir Starmer.
And that's because Jeremy Corbyn, even if you might think that his views are unpalatable to the public as a whole, although, you know, we we should remember that he got 40% of the vote in 2017 under very different circumstances.
And in fact basically got the same amount of votes that Keir Starmer did in 2024 when he led Labour to that crashing defeat in 2019. But he remains more popular now than Keir Starmer is. And that's because there are parts of the public that like what Jeremy Corbyn says, that believe he is authentic to what he says and will stick with him no matter what. Boris Johnson had a similar
thing. Many unpopular politicians have people that will not desert them because they believe them to be authentic, at least to some things and some principles. And that is what Keir Starmer is completely lacking. And is there any evidence to suggest that anyone else W Streeting or Shabana Mahmud or anyone plus in the Labour Party would make any difference? There is no evidence actually. So I mean it is all Labour figures are pretty unpopular
with the public. The only one that is in net popularity is Andy Burnham. I would suggest that's because he's not involved in Westminster politics and I think it's hard to maintain positive approval ratings at the moment. As soon as you come into contact with Southwest one. The public just really, really do not like politicians. However, I mean, the only Labour politician that's really more unpopular than Keir Starmer with the public is Rachel Reeves.
So you could say at least there's room potentially for someone else to do better. But there is no prints across the water. When I do focus groups, there's no one saying, oh, it would be fine if only so you used to hear, you know, be fine if only Dave, you know, David Miliband had won the leadership contest or, you know, even up until reasonably recently, people saying they should bring back Tony Blair. Or if, you know, doing conservatives, they say get back Boris Johnson.
There is no one that people are focusing. It's not W treating. It's not any of the others. If you look at the members you get a slightly different picture. Ed Miliband is comfortably the most popular figure with Labour members, should that come down to that, and Angela Rayner also remains very popular. But there is no obvious contender that could turn things round. But someone might do a better job. John I mean, it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party is completely stuffed.
It's, it's hard not to conclude that the Labour Party needs change. And the the reason for that is when the Labour Party campaigned for change in the last election, you got a huge vote, a landslide, but it failed to say clearly and it's failed to act in government clearly to say change from what change to what. And that's where I think the possibility of a candidate who comes from outside Westminster.
I said SW one as Scarlett was talking about who does have a view of how to change, has experience of changing. Someone like Andy's got 10 years of record that he can be judged against, does have an opportunity. And I've been in pubs across the country with Andy Burnham and always there's working class people who want selfies with them. That is a huge step up from any
current Labour cabinet minister. And I think the issue is there's a debate about purpose, a debate about change, a debate about what the meaning of change is. There's a country and, and, and, and it's right. There's always right. There's a country out there listening to Zack Polanski, listening to joining your party, the Corbyn vehicle. There's a country that wants change and it wants change from
a leftist centre perspective. Labour, and this is what I was most outraged at, a briefing that says that the Labour Party should put up and shut up and just do what the bond markets want. Social Democratic parties manage markets they don't obey. Them right, But I mean, you know, so if you think Andy Burnham is the best bets or the one with the best chance, yeah, the question is when isn't it?
Because, you know, the the sort of the prevailing wisdom is, well, let's see what happens after the budget. Let's go into the May elections next year and if it's all the disaster then we'll change leader. You haven't got that kind of time, have you? I mean, no, the the British public will have gone by the time you get to to May. So, and I think I suspect Zoe and Scarlett agree with the risk of changing leader, which is the Tories made a genre of changing leader and did no good for them.
But I think what number 10 have done is rather than being a question of if it's not become a question of when. And once you start to go well, when is it best to wait till May? Well that's two years into your parliamentary term. You've only got 2 years left. It'd be crazy to try and take over then. So you then you go, OK, before that, would you want to take on the defeats? Maybe you shouldn't say that's my inheritance. I now build on that.
And then you go to the budget, the budget knocking around and it's in, it's in Scarlet's polling knocking around is the worry that and I think backbench Labour MPs must be worried about this. What what happens if the Green vote overtakes Labour's? What if there's a more popular party on the left? Hard for them to get enough parliament seats to mean anything. But what if there's I'll surpass. So what's their moment? It hurt the Tories massively when reform went over. I think it won't.
So I think. So, so you think, go now, do you? I, I think, I think the, the fire that the starter pistol was fired last night, the breed that number 10 declared a leadership election and basically said you're all too scared, You're all too scared to do it. And The thing is, well, if somebody's saying there should be an election, maybe take them at their words. They're going, you know, coming up and go, if you're hard enough, well, there are quite a few people who are hard enough
out there. They've got the ambition, they've got the desire and the and you're being kicked around and, and you've got the Parliamentary Labour Party being described as feral. That is disrespectful at the very least. And we've got cabinet to be briefed against. It's got something's got to give. And I think and the calculation of #10 is the party will give for what if the party doesn't and what if the party shouldn't I?
Mean, Zoe, I mean the, the number 10 argument and Rachel Reeves's argument in the last week has been if I resigned, what would happen the next day? You know, the, the cost of borrowing would go up, the markets would go mad. The economy would be, would be flawed even more than it is now. Are you saying just forget about that?
Don't worry about it. If there's no Prince over the water, if Andy Burnham's the only politician in the country with a net positive rating and it's at 9%, it's at 9 points, which is not very high, but it's higher than everybody else, then I'm then I think don't rush it because Andy doesn't even have a seat yet, right? So we have anybody who thinks that he is the the white knight is going to have to wait until he has a until an MP is seated for him.
But it I this idea. Should we worry about the bond market? Well, yeah, I mean, John's right that, you know, as a competent government knows what to do, doesn't just flail around at the mercy of the bond markets.
But at the same time, if you look like you're in chaos, if you look like you can't get your budget voted through, if, if nobody looking at your senior team knows who they're even briefing on behalf of. If no if, if the Prime Minister doesn't look like he's in charge, then you can wish you
were in charge of the bond. You were the master of the bond markets, but you won't be. Scarlett isn't isn't the trouble that, you know, Keir Starmer had a positive racing Once Upon a time, so who's to say A that he can't recover it and B that Andy Burnham wouldn't lose his positive rating as soon as he's actually in power and unable to transform things overnight? Yeah, I mean to take a before BI think, can you recover it? We've never seen a Prime Minister recover from these
sorts of ratings. Boris Johnson got slight bounces again, having not sunk this low by the way, from things like the vaccine roll out and also but isn't. History no help now. I mean, you know, we're in uncharted waters, so the fact that it hasn't happened before doesn't really help us, does it? Well, I think it, I think on this one it does because I think it's much harder to recover positive ratings than it is to lose them. And what we're seeing is just how difficult it is to fight up
water. Now what again, what I think those examples tell us to fight upstreamers. And remember, this is when politicians were still slightly more trusted than they are now because that has been a consistent downward trend. But if you look at someone like Boris Johnson, who's the only one who's managed to have that balance in recent years, and that was a global pandemic and an outbreak of a war on the European continent.
Now, maybe if one of those two things or something was to repeat itself, Keir Starmer could claw something back. But are the Labour Party really going to sit around hoping for, you know, a sort of catastrophe on either one of those scales to happen again? I'm not so sure. And even still, is Keir Starmer at least, you know, no matter what you think about Boris Johnson, you can think plenty of
things. I mean, but he was a good campaigner and he was better at connecting with the public than Keir Starmer, I think has ever been. And those, those positive ratings for Keir Starmer were very interesting. The public like a winner, the public, but when someone looks like they're about to win an election, start giving them more of the benefit of the doubt because they are actually in some ways relatively optimistic about that change That can happen.
We've even seen that happen with Nigel Farage's ratings. But isn't Andy Burnham a serial loser? I mean, what? How can he be suddenly when it comes to national politics? Well again, This is why I'm sceptical that any positive ratings from Andy Burnham and to take your point BI am sceptical that they could maintain contact with an electorate like this positive ratings.
Now what? What could be different about someone like Andy Burnham, And again, I don't know, because what we're seeing is all politicians struggling with this is that I think someone like Andy Burnham, or at least someone that came across as authentic and principled, will probably still have a higher floor, even if that meant they ended up in deep underwater territory. Because at the moment we're ceding that basically all politicians that become well known become deeply unpopular.
They might have a high, you know, a lower place to fall because they could have a safety net of voters that liked them no matter what. And that is precisely what Keir Starmer is lacking. I mean, I'm, I'm sort of surprised that there is so much agreement between the three of you, to be honest. But I mean, John, I mean, isn't, isn't the problem that if you're, if you argue, well, Andy Burnham is the one who's sort of vaguely net positive, so. Let's go in that direction, Brandon would be.
Well, you know what I mean. In terms of John's argument of sort of, well, he, he's, he's the only one who isn't looking like a loser politically. He takes Labour to the soft left. That is not where the country was at the election. So. You know, so, So what? What is the implication of moving the government to the left in terms of Labour's ability to survive? That look, that's that, that's a really good way of putting it and a good way of thinking about it. Andy Burnham did lose 2
leadership elections. Andy Burnham won every single constituency in Greater Manchester last time he stood to be the mayor. That's a huge achievement given the the the diversity of voters who who are in Greater Manchester. And what is the answer to the question, is he soft left? Yes he is, but so are the most popular policies of the Labour government at the moment. The the minimum wage is 2/3 of average earnings.
Railway nationalization, like Great British Energy being set up, Great British nuclear workers rights, renter's rights, all the most popular things the government's doing, which the government won't talk about a soft left. And then look, look at where Nigel Farage is. Nigel Farage wants to lift the two child benefit gap which Rachel's been against, which Kier's been against, which Andy's been in favour of lifting. Nigel Farage wants to nationalize British Steel.
Nigel Farage is cosplaying a soft left Social Democratic Party. People obsess about reform being he's listening to where working people are, where the red wall is and actually a Labour government which was more open about, yeah, we're, we are soft left. To be honest, we are doing these things which are soft left. They're popular. Not only they're popular,
they're right. And somebody who had more swagger about them, more confidence in it would actually, I think the compelling thing is you put somebody who believes in being soft left in a country that actually quite likes being soft left economically. You know how many people in Britain, I've been to loads of meetings, public and private and business. My view is the Labour government should nationalize Thames Water because they're a disgrace.
This government won't do that because I think nationalization is lefty. It's popular and it's popular and I think it's this new politics. People believe in politicians with values and with records and the record. This government is mixed, but it's embarrassed about the good things it's done. Andy Burnham and other people in the soft left, Angela Rain, those candidates would not be embarrassed.
And the final thing is Andy, like Anna Sarwar, like Sadiq Khan was really quick to say ceasefire in Gaza. And I think that's got massive residence in a country where 8 out of 10 people want to ceasefire for such a long time. And the Labour government's was seen to be against that for whatever it was doing and saying Labour's identified as being
against. So I think those there are big issues out there which can be shaped, but you need a a new politics and a new way of doing a new economics.
I want to identify the problem both of each of you are making, John. You're making the problem that people respond to shopping list policies and they and they and they therefore look at reform and go, oh, reform is a bit like Andy Burnham. How come I support Nigel Farage when I don't support this or if I support Nigel Farage in nationalising this, then I would support Andy Burnham. People don't vote on shopping list policies, they vote on their vibes. And Nigel Farage is giving off
hard right racist vibes. And Andy Burnham is giving off the guy who has been actually kind of radicalised by the blood scandal. Obviously Nigel Farage would deny being racist or or even hard right and he's not here to defend himself, so we've got to be careful about labels we throw around. Fine, fine. And Christian, you're acting as though there's these fixed points of of soft left. What's soft left? What's hard left? What's centrist? What's right wing? I just mean to the left of where
the government was. I know, but did like, you know, did the the actual Labour government we're looking at doesn't look like even a centrist left, a centre left that I would recognise 10, let alone 20 years ago. The Tory party does not look anything like a centre right. Nigel Farage you say? He would be really upset at being called a racist. Reform has deportation policies that you would have found on the Flyers of the British National
Party, the BNP. So we're not talking about an we're not when we use these terms like soft left, hard left, when we, we just got to be a little bit more forensic. I think about what we're talking about because we're we're really moving our discussion to the right all. The time, but isn't the point that you're both making that that actually on on on on economics and on workers rights and all the rest of it, Britain and welfare.
Britain might be movable to the left, but on immigration you're all moving to the right. Well, I just think what John was saying is absolutely right. However, I did find that you it's easy when talking about these things to talk about soft left policies that appeal to people. Please speak country is quite economically left wing and that's been the case for a while.
And there is certainly mass appeal to things like nationalising utilities and, and, and, and although actually the pen, the benefit gap doesn't poll the removing it doesn't pull that well. But it is difficult to emit the issue of immigration. It is now the number one or sometimes #2 but it's a dominant concern for voters, including a
sizeable chunk of Labour voters. And actually, even if, you know, Zoe mentioned obviously deportation policies, now it could be, you know, it's potentially a bit squeamish to talk about, but even a majority of Labour voters back deporting people who are in the country illegally. Now, none of this is to say that there isn't a leader that could be able to try and thread that needle, but it is there to be
threaded. And I think part of the problem is even there was a poll out yesterday actually showed even a plurality of Green voters back deporting migrants that are here illegally. And so I think the issue is going to be that I think you can have a leader that is going to appeal to soft left and can be, you know, I think speak much more authentically and indeed patriotically about standing up to forces they disagree with like things like reform.
However, I think you actually it's going to be very difficult to get the public into a place where they are not still demanding reductions in illegal and legal migration and I think that is a difficult issue for the next Labour leader, whoever. They are, John. I mean, you know, lots of people in the Labour Party think it needs to be much tougher on
immigration. It's likely to get much tougher on asylum seekers on Monday. You know, is it ever going to be authentically believed by the electorates that a Labour government can be, you know, economically progressive and and truly tough on immigration? So look the the issue for a Labour government on the economy and on migration and on law and order is to be considered competent, to be considered in
control. You will not vote Labour if you want the harshest of restrictions on immigration. You won't vote Labour if you want the harsh conditions of prisons, the longest sentences. But Labour has to acknowledge the country wants security, border security, it wants security on the streets. And Labour got to realise the public are always sceptical about it. The thing that we are is in the politics of flux, a politics in which there are local and global changes.
There is migration, there's also climate crisis, there is inflation, cost of living, but there's also AI, there's China, there's a war in Europe, there's Trump's tariffs. There are so many big issues. And it it leaves a space for the political entrepreneurs. And where I think that what Farage has done is to be able to move in to secure a block of 30% of the vote that wouldn't be a dominant block in any other time. In politics.
There's five viable political parties and Labour are one of those other four parties, around between fifteen, 2025%. Labour's got to find a way to articulate a future vision, one that Farage can't do. Labour's more authentic around managing the markets around intervening, around being left economically. Farage is currently more authentic or trusted on. He'll get the job done.
He's hard headed. Labour is in government, it's got to prove it's got the competence plus the humanity because people also do want people. People believe people who shouldn't be here. You, you apply for asylum, you don't get asylum, you need to be removed as a working system. They do also believe this country, this great country of ours does have a responsibility to refugees. We have to share the burden, but we have to take some of the burden itself.
And it's finding the way to tell that story of bringing the elements together. And I think my, my, my biggest question mark over the way the government's run itself for the last 18 months is it's always about process, never about purpose. It's always about individual technical, technocratic solutions. It's never about this is big a big problem requires a big idea. It requires a big effort. It requires us all coming
together. And I think it's you have to change the shape, the nature of progressive politics. And that is why whoever rises the challenge which has been issued by #10 has got to have a new political economy, a new a new way of doing politics, a new way of running economy, a new way of Britain being in the world. Zoe, that's a big demand do. Do you think the left, whether it's your party or the Greens, can actually win the argument on
immigration? Well, OK, I totally do, and I'll tell you how we go about winning the argument on immigration. First of all, the reason polling numbers are the way they are is because it's all anybody talks about. The media and the politicians are in some kind of dance of death where they won't talk about anything except immigration, and they try and kind of game each other to more
and more extreme positions. All three of you are talking as though deportations are only suggested for people who are here illegally. That's always been true, that people who get refused asylum get deported. Nobody's never disagreed with that. But we're talking about, you know, reform has ideas about, about leave, to remain, about not having.
People who are here. Legally, yeah, but yeah, if when you're here legally the Tories have ideas about not get about being deported if you've ever claimed a benefit. We're talking about an absolutely febrile environment in which obviously then when people are asked what the biggest issues are, they always say immigration because that's all that the authority ever, ever discussed.
However, when you ask people what the most important thing to them is, is always cost of living, NHS, sometimes a little bit of social care if they're in the older brackets, sometimes a little bit of crime, especially among women, it's not. People aren't saying this issue is salient to them, they're responding to the political climate.
Consequently, every time we say how is the left ever going to have a viable policy around immigration when the public public's attitudes are really, really hardening, you're just this is a self fulfilling fallacy and it and and it's really dispiriting to watch. Now, I don't know whether I don't know what the greens ultimate landing point on immigration is going to be. I don't know how much the late Labour is going to surrender to the reform agenda.
Although I think to borrow Scarlett's Braves, they haven't got a floor morally, they'll go anywhere chasing that kind of energy. But I do know that it at some point there will be there will cut there. There is a hardcore of people in Britain who say, look, the numbers, migration, migrating, fleeing war are no higher than they've ever been throughout history. It's about 3%, right? So anything else we can manage.
And whether or not these, you know, Nigel Farage shows what happens when you try and build a project not by amalgamating 25 views, but by going hard for your core. The person who goes hard for the core that will not not talk about people as burdens, that will not talk about people as illegals, the people who go hard for that core are going to win
something. Just finally, I mean, Scarlett, if you, I mean you've made it clear you think it's, it's irrecoverable for Keir Starmer. The question is, is it recoverable at all for Labour, you know, before the next election, if Labour, how you know what, what are the things Labour needs to hit? You know, is it they, they kind of assume it's the health service and immigration.
Are they right in that? Look, it's a very difficult and narrow path for Labour, I think, but I think it's a path that still plausibly exists. What should they do? I think John is right when he says they need to show competence on issues whilst potentially not focusing on them, right? So like with immigration, I do think they're going to need to deliver the sorts of things that are looking for. I slightly disagree with Zoe. I don't think it's just because people are talking about it.
Obviously giving things more media oxygen, we'll see an impact on how much people think about it. But actually, if you look about the concern for immigration, it was when it started spiking when immigrants were starting to be put up in asylum hotels. And I did notice from focus groups at the time that people who said previously they didn't think much about that issue felt very differently when they had a
hotel in their area. So I also do think it is to a certain extent what people are seeing or hearing in their local communities as well as what what they might be ingesting on the
news. But putting that to a side, I think Labour, I mean look what Labour should have done when they got in last time in the 2024 election was to SAT straight away, no summer recess, have Parliament working everyday to show they were delivering on the nation's priorities and go hell for leather on the NHS because that is something that they have in their favour. People do not trust the Conservatives on the NHS. People do not trust reform on
the NHS. Lots of voters are worried that Nigel Farage might privatize the health service. That is something consistently that I hear in my focus groups, and you can see this in the data as well. It should be a card Labor can play. It is one in which they are already making progress, albeit slow progress. And that seems to me a very good opportunity to keep going and show actual progress. Obviously it's a difficult task, but that's what I would do.
And for what it's worth, you know, I mean been this podcast has been fairly critical of Wes Streeting so far. But I did think during Labour conference I was listening to Wes Streeting on a media round and he was asked to talk about the reform indefinite leave to remain policy, much as Kier Starmer had. And I thought Wes Streeting's reply was naturally one that would carry a lot more weight and be more persuasive with the public.
He straight away framed it as an issue to do with the NHS and to do with NHS workers and about treating them fairly and not crippling the NHS. And he did it in a way that seemed authentic to him, and I just thought that was a much better way of taking on reform. Zoe I mean, it's a lost cause for you, isn't? It look, this kind of politics is a lost cause for me. Yeah.
I mean, the, the party, the, the party hasn't, the party has kind of peeled away from its from its own values without really replacing them with anything obvious. You know, people like me or even me made a lot when Tony Blair came in. But at least they had a project. At least they would tell you what it was. At least they would fight you about it, right? They would air arguments to you and and argue them intellectually because they had meaning.
I just did this this lot. They they they can't bring their arguments because they don't have arguments. John. Look, I think Labour has a case to make. It's got a progressive case to make and the the the government stumbles when it doesn't have a case. It had no case about cutting to simply benefits. It couldn't answer the question, had no case to make about cutting winter fuel payments. Now we have a situation where #10 have have decided they want
to provoke a leadership contest. I don't think a leisure contest is a great idea or a solution in itself. I do think a contest of ideas would be a good thing because there's a lot of ferment on the progressive side of politics and there's a lot of demands on across all of politics. And I don't think that people are settling to be, let's be a right wing country. Look at how badly the Tories are doing. They do want disruption, they do
want change. They've voted for change in so many ways in the last decade, whether for Brexit, for Corbyn, for for Starmer, for Johnson. Labour had to be able to say this is the change that we need as a country, this is how we will deliver it. We may need new faces and new voices to go with new ideas and new policies, but we also need to accept we did lose our way the last 18 months.
I could defend the record because there's many great things, but there's something gone wrong and I think Scarlett's got it. Scarlett hears it in in our focus groups, we lose Scarlett's focus groups, you lose Zoe Williams. What is a Labour government doing that can't keep working people and can't keep Zoe Williams in broad support And what's, what is this government, Labour government doing? What's Keir Starmer doing when he makes Zoe make the case for Tony Blair?
On on that note, thank you all very much indeed. That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.