You speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the impression of Crikey. Kier has not got long left in him. However, you need someone to wield a knife. It's remarkable now when you go out and about how toxic it's become around Starmer, the kind of visceral dislike of him inevitably damaging set of local elections in May. We'll probably finish him off. I mean, there is a world in which Kier Starmer serves out the year as Prime Minister because it's so difficult to get
rid of a sitting Labour leader. After the Burnham thing, who's most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most excited to be Nigel Farage? Hello and welcome to the forecast. It was the political psychodrama that finished off the Tories and now Labour look like they're heading down the exact same path. Can changing a party leader ever lead to electoral success? Quite a lot of Labour MPs seem to think so. That Andy Burnham won't for the moment be the man to do it for
them. Keir Starmer has seen off his attempt but hasn't given the Prime Minister any more than a temporary reprieve from dagger wielding colleagues. Can travelling the globe as international statesman avoid the blows? China and a meeting with President Xi is his latest destination. He says that his relentless focus is actually the cost of living crisis at home, but other public or his MPs buying it.
Joining me to discuss it are senior political correspondent Paul McNamara, the ipaper's chief political commentator Kitty Donaldson and political editor of the Liverpool Echo, Liam Thorpe, welcome to all of you. Let me start with you, Paul. Does the Labour Party have a Starmer problem or is it something bigger? I mean, they have. He's one of their problems at the moment. I think they would have an issue with events, dear boy, events. I think the economy's not on
their side at the moment. There's a small boat crisis that they would argue is going to be a massive factor come the election. The biggest problem isn't within the party, it's Nigel Farage and Reform Party and how you tackle that is shaping all arguments that are coming before. OK, and we'll talk about Farage and whether we've reached peak populism at the end of the podcast. But Kitty, let me ask you the same question.
Does the Labour Party have a Starmer problem or is it something bigger They. Certainly do have a Starmer problem. He polls worse than the Labour Party as a whole and they'll be looking to replace him at some point when that time comes. We're not entirely sure. We think probably not till after May. But that's what this is all been about, this weekend's
shenanigans. It's been about what happens after May and getting the soft left preferred candidate into Parliament. And at the moment, well, until recently, that was Andy Burnham. That's why they're having such a kind of breakdown about him blink, him being blocked. And what's been going on today is chatter amongst Labour MPs about, if not Andy, then whom? And I'm hearing that people are now trying to convince Ed Miliband, perhaps to make a
further tilt at the leadership. Liam, it's happened quite a few times in recent weeks, said people close to the Labour Party or in the Labour Party. They dragged me into a quiet corner and they whisper into my ear, you know, upon the promise of never to repeat that to anyone else. I think Keir Starmer will fight the next election and win, right. So they're they're actually, you know, enormous saying it is if they belong to some kind of
underground movement. Can you see him fighting the next election for Labour, let alone winning but just being the candidate I. Thought you were going to say Matt, that they dragged you into a corner and asked you to stand as the leader. Let's let's fix it. I'm waiting, I'm waiting, Liam. You know, I think you've been pulling considerably better than than Keir Starmer. I, I, I, I can't see it. I really can't see it.
I have the advantage up in, in the northwest of, of, you know, speaking to people in areas where Labour have historically always been successful. But it's remarkable now when you go out and about speaking to people, how, how toxic it's become around Starmer. Now, now, from my personal perspective, I think there's been plenty of disappointment, but the, the kind of visceral dislike of him I find quite
remarkable. And I think you, you can look at social media and, and elements of that and some of it is maybe a little bit unfair. But I, I really do think we're, we're kind of, that's the point of no return now. And as Kitty says, a damaging, inevitably damaging set of local elections in May. We'll probably finish him off. I'm sure we'll come on to talk about Andy Burnham. But I think that there is a, there is a big difference there.
And when, when I speak to people out and about, I went there yesterday into Andy Burnham's birthplace in, in Aintree and Merseyside, people absolutely love him. They really do. He's he's, he seems to tick some of the same boxes remarkably as Nigel Farage does, even though they are sort of polar opposites in terms of politics. But it's for many people, it's just in terms of relatability,
who they think is on their side. And I don't think they feel that from Kier Starmer. Just for the for the purposes of the fact that you are a king of the North for this podcast, Yeah, our very own King of the North. How does the visceral dislike or hatred against Starmer compared to the visceral like or hatred against Corbyn when he ran just briefly? Well, well, very different.
So in Liverpool, where I am now, and Jeremy Corbyn was actually pretty popular, he would have big rallies here, but then you would go to areas sort of on the outskirts, more kind of red wall areas. And it was very much the opposite, I'm afraid to say, for Keir Starmer across the board, where I speak to people now, it is a very, very strong and, and as I say, almost emotional dislike of him and what he stands for and, and that I'm afraid is going to do for him, I
think. Liam, I've got a question for you. When you're talking to people, is that annoyance and anger squarely on Keir Starmer or is there for the wider Labour Party in general? Have they had not, have they had enough the last 18 months, all the utiles or is it all just all on, all on Keir? Good question. Rachel Reeves is very unpopular as well. And both of them, you know, I find it remarkable that I speak to people and they say I'm never voting for Labour again because of Starmer.
I'm voting for reform. And then I say, what about Andy Burnham? And they say, OK, if he came back, I'd vote for Labour. So I find it really strange that people are potentially at this sort of crossroads between a soft left progressive mayor of Greater Manchester who believed in a green industrial revolution and the hard right politics of Nigel Farage. And I think that's why so much of it comes back to the cult of personality as well.
And Keir Starmer's inability to to connect with people, connect with voters. You know, I had a guy saying, I mean, this isn't his fault. A guy yesterday said to me, I can't vote for a Labour leader who's a knight of the realm.
And that that's where politics has got to in some ways, that's not in any way Keir Starmer's fault, but it's another thing that's counting against him as a kind of figure of the establishment that doesn't believe or doesn't kind of connect with working class voters. Let me ask you, Kitty, about the man not yet called Sir Ed Miliband. Are you really saying that Ed Miliband, you know, who lost the previous Labour election, who, you know, had AI mean he's been on a journey, right?
He's been on a journey from his very awkward sandwich to having some very, you know, very, very clear views about, you know, the environment. And, you know, when you hear him in interviews, he seems to have, you know, improved with age and experience, I have to say. But do you really, seriously think that he might be in a position to replace Keir Starmer? No, I don't. I think this is an expression of the Labour left casting around trying to find an alternative to where streeting.
This is what this is the current expression of with they would rather have Angela Rayner, but she's currently on the bench for reasons we know all too well. And therefore if they're saying, they're saying if we can't have Angela, then who do we want instead? And in the absence of someone else presenting themselves, I don't know Louise Haig or Lucy Powell or or one of these figures, who is there that we could have, who is an alternative to West routing in
May? And Ed Miliband's name keeps coming up. As you say, he's ruled himself out. I, I tell you what I find astonishing about this discussion. We're only three minutes in or so. Is that we, we, you know you, and I'm not even saying we, but you seem to have all written off Keir Starmer. And I'm not, I'm not advocating, I'm not a member of the Starmer family. I'm not Morgan McSweeney in disguise. I'm just wondering. So this is my question. Let me start with you, Paul.
Is there any way that Keir Starmer can save his political skin? I think that if you talk to Labour MPs, pretty much all of them off the record and talking to you quietly and like, well, you know, he's done for. It's the machinations of, of of, of how we move on. Now, have you met any backbenchers who think that he'll survive? Well, there's a few loyalists and maybe they're not backbenchers, maybe they are paid up members of the government who are, who are
still. Back soldiers here, not people who, yeah, like for their jobs. Even even a lot of you know, during the election they were all called the storm troopers, like the, the young, predominantly young men who all look very similar to Keir Starmer. The TV's not that dissimilar from him and even a lot of them now pretty annoyed about how the weekends panned out for him. So, so you, you speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the impression of crikey, Keira's not got long left in him.
However, the thing that always comes back in my mind is that Labour aren't quite as good at decapitating the party. Procedures not there, it's not as easy. Yeah, and as the Tories were, you know, everyone always thought, you know, for years we've had one to show a million times, David Miliband. And everyone always talks about David Miliband. Oh, God. You know, the the leader that could have been. Well, he bowled it twice in 2008.
He didn't go for it. And so in the back of my mind, I keep on thinking, yeah, you know, you talked to all these MPs. You think Keir Simon hasn't got long for it. However, you need someone to wield the knife. Kitty, I guess timing is really bad for Keir Starmer, isn't it? Because the May elections are in May. We are now at the end of January. He's only got a couple of months for people to feel any improvement or for growth to actually manifest itself, et cetera, et cetera.
But I but I'm also looking at the polls and I noticed that there's been a slight uptick in Labour's favour, A slight down tick, if you like, for reform or for the Greens. And then we're going to talk about peak populism if that's what we've reached later on in the podcast. But I just wonder whether maybe we're seeing the beginnings of
some kind of partial recovery. And if they pitch it right ahead of the May elections, could they game their failure and turn it into a success in the way that Corbyn did, you know, in the 2017 general election, which he lost. But for him, it was a kind of great personal victory, Kitty. There's quite a lot in that question. Sorry, yeah, it was a so it was a long one. I keep them short of 1. I get paid by I get paid by the word per question. That's why it's a new.
Thing that's a great gig that's a great gig I think several things going on one is yes the polls are moving around a little bit at the moment and strategies both in Labour and the Tories I've spoken to think that the reform lead is very very soft and that actually we've reached the high watermark of where reform we're going to get to and the only way is downhill from
here. I mean of course the only that really matters is is in May is where it's the first proper data point we've got of what people are really thinking about reform. And but equally May is a chance for people to give the government a kicking. That is why the kind of Gordon and Dent thing is so interesting is that it would have provided another data point.
But also Andy Burnham polls above the the Labour national average and therefore probably probably could have probably the only person who could have held onto that seat for them. And I've forgotten the rest of your questions, Matt, but I think you kind of. You've why don't we just say you've? That was a brilliant answer, Kitty. I've forgotten the rest of my questions too, so let me move on to Liam.
Liam, do you think that Andy Burnham could have saved Labour in the May elections had he been elected leader? I mean MP first and then leader. Yeah, you were jumping ahead of yourself there, but I think that's, we all know that's where it was going. Yeah, I, I've written a column on this. I've my, my sort of colours are
nailed to the mast. I, I do believe from, from my experience of, of speaking to people and and the general kind of consensus I've gathered that Ivandy Burnham, as Kitty says, if he had stood in Gordon and Denton, I think he's probably the only candidate who could win that for Labour. You look at the, the individual polling of Labour with or without Burnham up against reform in that, in that by election and it's, it's, it's about four or five percentage
points different either way. So I feel sorry for who whoever Labour selected as their candidate.
I think that they're in a really difficult position because I think if you were in Gorton and Denton, you have you, you were hoping to vote for the very successful mayor of the city region that you live in. Who, who, I think across the board has to be regarded as the most successful city region mayor that we've probably seen in the, the, the devolved world, that devolved country that we live in. And then you've suddenly seen that his party have blocked him
from standing. I think that people who were even on the fence about Labour would go the other way and that people who are, who are already going the other way will be even more entrenched in their vote for reform. So I think that Burnham could have, could have, could definitely have won that for Labour and that would have been a massive boost for Starmer as well. I think it I think this only hastens his his dissent really.
Right, Paul, do you think that if he had been elected, if if, if, if had he been elected and got the Benton, do you think he could have turned things round naturally actually had he then been elected leader of the party? I, I don't know, I think Liam will have a better still on this than me, but I think the jury is still out on Andy Burnham. Like he's benefited massively by being the King of the North, not just because he gets to be the king of the North and bowl about
Manchester and looking great. Could he be the king of everywhere? Well, and when you're the king of the North, you're not facing questions about everywhere else. You're not. You're not daily or at least weekly, put on a platform where you have to answer for yourself. We have to answer difficult questions. He's not out doing morning rounds and, and, you know, being made to look a mug on, on, on the Today programme or, or on
Channel 4 News or anywhere. So he's benefited by, not by not having that national presence, really. Kitty, have we projected things onto Andy Burnham, you know, or some people not not us necessarily, but have people projected stuff onto Andy Burnham that Andy Burnham doesn't have? Is he like a sort of Christmas wish list of political talent that we will never see whether it actually, you know, holds up under fire?
Yes, yes, I think so. And also this weekend's done nothing to, to do to dissipate that impression, has it? He's now a martyr in the eyes of, you know, of the Labour left and, and will continue to be so until he gets his chance to shine. I mean, the other thing is, you know, Andy Burnham's been on quite a political journey.
You know, I looked up some of his contributions to a Treasury Select Committee the other day, you know, because I have nothing better to do. And he he was, he sounded almost George Osborne like in his, in his sort of appreciation for, for sound fiscal prudence to, you know, to quote Gordon Brown. And, and it's extraordinary that now, you know, now he's talking about not being in hop to the bond market.
I mean, the idea that this guy could come in and basically borrow how much he wants to build more council houses and, and the bond markets wouldn't react.
It's just nonsense. So in fact, the bond markets were even reacting to the idea that he might get Gorton and Denton. So so, you know, and this is before we've even got onto the idea that he's going to stand up next to Donald Trump and, you know, be the saviour of the left and sort of, you know, do have their Love Actually moment or whatever people trying to project onto him. It's just, I think it's just nonsense.
Would he have picked up Donald Trump's papers from the trade deal that Trump dropped to the ground? That's a key question. You know, Keir Starmer picked them up, you know, like the good supplicant that he is. And would Andy Burnham have done that? I don't know. Liam, let me ask you, just a quick one. I'm just fascinated by this. So Andy Burnham has been mulling this idea, you know, of standing in this, you know, in the by election that's coming up.
He must have known that there was a very good chance that Keir Starmer would and his people would block him. So why did he do it anyway? Is it because he once martyrdom status or because he thought there was a chance that they wouldn't block him? What's going on in his mind? I mean, you're right, you know, you would assess, assess that he's done his homework and realised the make up of that NEC was, was absolutely not in his favour.
Including the Prime Minister himself, of course, who I was a little bit surprised to see cast a vote in a what many would see as a slightly petty move. But I think that it's both things. I think that he did think that there was possibly a chance that he would appeal to hear Starmer's vulnerabilities and that that Starmer would look and say, look, I'm going to look incredibly weak if I block Andy Burnham from coming in. I'm going to look like I'm scared of people within my own party.
And, and it will, I will write the opposition's attacks for themselves for the next few months, which I think is what has happened. And I think Burnham thought I'll take my chances on that and, and the net result if they block me and I get to go back to my successful job as Great Manchester mayor. OK, a few people might have their noses put out a joint, but I think most people in Great Manchester will welcome him back. And he gets to look like a martyr.
And I think only probably, Yeah. Hastings, the demise of Keir Starmer. So I think, yeah. But Burnham had it win, win. Starmer had it lose, lose. And Starmer really lost. Liam, I've got a question for you. So a hefty chunk of Keir's argument was, look, it would cause a mayoral by election that cost four and a half, £1,000,000 of taxpayer money. That is almost offensive for us to ask taxpayers to dip into their pocket. What are the people of Great
Manchester think though? Do they think, yeah, thanks Keir for saving us Four and a half, £1,000,000 I think. No, no, no, this is just poppycock. I don't, I mean it's a fairpoint, but I don't, I mean I think everyone sees through it. Nobody believes that's the reason why they stopped it. Nobody thinks that if it if it was in their advantage that they wouldn't happily fold in that £5,000,000. There's no thanks to Kier posters going up all over the place. No, no, cheers for that 5 minutes.
I've seen loads by the way. This is how we're going to spend it. You know, I just don't think anyone buys it. That's the problem. And also, I think you could, you could make the argument that they can fold it in with local elections, they can work it around and, and ultimately people won't know where that 5 million has gone. So I don't think that really watches. I think what they do see in Great Manchester is the threat of reform.
And I think that they, they will have thought that reform, we're going to now win this by election. And Andy Burnham was the only person who who could beat them. I, I, I, you know, I've got family who live in Great Manchester. They're very, very fond of him as a mayor. They think he's done great things on transport. But it's not like he's just
started. He's, he's into his third term, so I don't think he could, he could be accused of abandoning Grey Manchester. He's, he's done 8-9 years and he would be set leaving them in a very decent position. So I, I, I, I don't think that argument works either. I think they just, they, you know, Starmer and Co knew that he was a massive threat. Katie, I just want to get back to this point because I don't think any of you really answer
the question. Is there any result in May other than victory, which is highly unlikely, that saves Keir Starmer's skin? I mean, there is a world in which Keir Starmer serves out the year as Prime Minister because it's so difficult to get rid of a sitting Labour leader. You need 80 Labour MPs to to gather behind a challenger. And then even if there's a challenge Keir Starmer could
could win, win any election. And that there is a world in which Labour left doesn't get itself, doesn't get his act together, doesn't come up with a verbal candidate to to where streeting and therefore Keir beats Wes in a in a leadership contest. I mean, I think that's quite unlikely if you ever got to that point, because I think even even those in the party who support care and who are, you know, even vaguely grateful that he won them their seats.
Think that take one look at his poll ratings. I think actually this guy is not going to lead into the next general election And and we need to change, change front man.
And if that's if that's Wes, then OK, maybe we'll grit our teeth And and even if we don't like his politics, particularly, although Wes has tacked the left little bit in recent months, even if we don't like his politics, we will, we will, we will grit our teeth and get on with it because we think that words perhaps is the is the better chance of of, you know, seeing off reform of seeing off the Greens and the Lib Dems.
Liam, what about you? I mean, I think that Nigel Farage, Mr. Mr. Farage once said that he fears Angela Rayner more than any other candidate. I'm not sure whether he was just playing with us, but she's got the populist touch. You know, she's she's a great communicator who is most likely in your book and in it's early days and, you know, things always moving. But after the Burnham thing, who's most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most likely to
be Nigel Farage? Well, I, I agree with with, with Kissy that when you take Burnham out of the equation, it's a, it's a bit of a mess. And I was speaking to MPs in Merseyside after the Burnham situation and they said that it could well be Angela versus Wes. But of course Angela is, has
this very recent baggage. And however, whatever you think of it, whether you think it was a little bit unfair that she lost her job over it, it's just red meat to the, to the right wing newspapers who would just go after her relentlessly. And I think it's kind of, it's maybe a little bit unfeasible that someone who resigned as a Deputy Prime Minister over a situation like that so recently is then going to stand for
leader. I do think that without that she would be the the obvious candidate. I can't against where Streeting, who is obviously that certainly we know about his leadership ambition. I personally don't think that Streeting is the man to beat reform. I think he's he's way too connected to the the the current administration. I think he's he he won't be seen as the the thing that Andy Burnham's got on his side. I know I keep going back to him
is that he's not seen as this. I know, I know it's interesting because he certainly very much was part of this kind of government elite, you know, he was cabinet secretary and and things like that. But since he's moved out of Westminster to the great Manchester area, he's seen as kind of outside the bubble looking in, talking about the things that are wrong with the country in the way that he can.
Now, he won't be able to do that, of course, back in Parliament, but from the outside he can. So I think it's, yeah, Angela and Wes. I can't really think of anyone else. I was surprised to hear Ed Miliband fancying another Tilt tattoo. It's a bit of a bit of a retro throwback, but I can't see that myself.
Kitty, I've got a question for both of you actually on this one, because this you make a really good point there about where's, you know, being from the same wing of the party and he's going to be seen as too linked to care to to whatever people. But then when it comes to reform, there's a completely different argument because you look at the main, the big faces now that are popping up all over reform and it's former members of Boris Johnson's government.
And you've got 2 arguments here, which are, which are sort of going head to head where you're like, well, if the biggest, if the biggest challenge is reform and yet the biggest faces in reform are people from Boris Johnson's government. So people either have it in their head that no, they're 2 links so I can't vote for them. Or actually, the general public just isn't as quite politically savvy and don't really see the inner machinations that all of us see, so I don't.
I'm interested in a pair of you, how you think. It's a really long question by the way, sorry, but. There was only one point. That was longer than you said it was. Longer than mine. I timed it. It was like 2 1/2 minutes. OK. If if you can hear a question that would do, please answer Liam. 111 response I would say to that, which is that no, I mean, I agree.
I think that the, the influx of, of Tories from the sort of particularly the chaotic final years of, of their administrations is, is becoming a mistake and a problem for reform. I think it's very hard for you to continue to market yourselves as the kind of insurgents coming from the outside the establishment, even though we
all know that's nonsense anyway. But it is something they've successfully branded themselves as if you have, you know, you are truck full of cabinet ministers who were part of the Tory administrations that left the country in such a poor state. I think I'm finding it it's sort of continual. You know, the Spider man meme where everyone's looking at each other.
It's like, well, hold on. I keep saying Robert Genrick talk about how the Tories broke Britain and Suella Bravaman talking about how these other parties failed. And it's like, I I don't know how stupid you think people are. Like we all know that you were prominent members of these governments. I don't know whether that translates across the board to the general public. So far, Reform have managed to hold that off.
But I think the more people that they add to from, from those various failed administrations, the bigger problem is going to be for them. So have we reached peak populism Kitty? Hard to say. I mean I think, well, I think May will just be everyone kicking everyone or everyone kicking the government, everyone kicking the Tories and that and that will be the high point.
And then I think Liam's right, people will start to take a closer look at Reform in the run up to the next general election. And I mean Reform is still trying to get Tories over. Not too much councillors or, you know, lower ranking ex MPs, but I think they still want to get as many sitting Tories as they possibly can just to bolster the numbers in Parliament.
But you're but Liam's right. Like the more, the more of them you get, the more you look like a retirement home for failed Tories and the more you can't present yourself as as the kind of outsiders. But we've got quite a long time until the next election. I mean, I don't want to sound like a Labour Party spokesperson, but things might
improve. In fact, what Labour's sort of putting their hopes on is that I think in Iraq to May is that in April the leaseholders reform bill gets gets enacted and therefore renters rights will improve. And they can start pointing to that if the economy starts improving. I mean, that's very slow. You know, if inflation keeps keeps coming down, people have. To feel it, though, don't they? I mean, you know, it's one thing to talk about growth numbers. You've got to actually feel it.
Just want to ask you about something else and start with you, Paul. We haven't talked about Trump yet. I mean, Trump is such an extraordinary presence on the global stage that he kind of washes up on your domestic doorstep as well. Does Farage have a Trump problem? Has Kia dealt with Trump well enough to be rewarded for it by the voters? What do you? Think, I think the government certainly thinks that they've
handled Trump very well. I I don't want to make a big deal of it, but I'm a pretty big deal and I was in Davos last week. You mixing it? Yeah, mixing it with the with the really is. Yeah, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a big. Deal. But why didn't we don't remember your speech? Did you give a speech? I did gave many speeches. He was after Mark Carney. They were big and beautiful. Because people, they remember Mark Carney's speech, but not. Anyway, listen there I. Buddy. Oh, Matt. Jesus.
No, no. Anyway, I didn't know. I'm just jealous that you were there. But look, they Labour, the Labour Party think they handled Trump over last week really, really well and like speaking to Rachel Reeves team. But is he being rewarded for it, do you think, by the voters, by the in the opinion polls? It doesn't appear so at the at the moment and I think it is a common thing that prime ministers really, I mean, Kerry
is over in China at the moment. He does really well on a foreign stage, looking like a world leader. Does he get appreciated for that at home? No and no, no, no prime, no Prime Minister does on the ground. Boris Johnson loved being in Ukraine. You know, David Cameron, he was all about Libya. But do you vote? Does that really ring true with the electorate, especially when you're in the middle of a cost of living crisis?
I think there was killed by too much presence, the fatal attraction to George Bush, you know, too much presence on the global stage. Liam, do you think Trump helps Starmer and hurts Farage because of Trump's Farage? You know Trump and Farage's friendship. Yeah, I mean, well, Farage is definitely finding it more and more awkward. He's having to give fairly kind of mediocre admonishments to Trump over things like Greenland, which he clearly finds difficult.
I think that, you know, we know that Trump, Trump doesn't pull well in the UK, so I think Labour should keep pushing that one. I agree with Paul. I think that Starmer's best, greatest successes in his time in office have been on the world stage.
But I also agree with you, Matt. I just don't think it translates again to go back out to, you know, where I was in Saint Helen's the other week at a council that's been run by Labour since largely since 1974, that I fully expect to Labour to lose in May and for reform to be at least the largest party. No one was talking about Donald Trump. Everyone was talking about the cost of living, about the state of the town centre, about the fact that they can't afford food
in the shops. It's it's all anyone's talking about. And the stuff with Trump is seen. I think there's a bit of a distraction on the side, even though, as you say, it has an effect on all of that. But I don't think that Starmer's presence on the world stage is is translating to the domestic
agenda. Katie, the the one moment I thought that Reform might actually be in trouble because of Trump's friendship with Farage was when he made that comment about British troops, you know, not really getting involved and staying away from the front line in Afghanistan. I mean, then you're really, really, you know, touching a neuralgic nerve, you know, in the kind of in the kind of at the heart of the reform movement or indeed, you know, the old
labour movement. I mean, being dissing British troops after 457 of them have been killed in Afghanistan and thousands more had life changing injuries was a really bad idea. And I could just see Nigel Farage squirm when that was being said. And there will be many, many more moments about that, you know, coming from Trump in the future, I'm sure. So, Kitty, you know, again, is that a problem that Farage faces? Or is is the populist headman so strong that it doesn't really
matter? Well, Nigel Farage has done a fairly good job of distancing himself from from Trump, I think in the last few months and weeks. And I was fascinated by by what the kind of chain of events that led up to Trump sort of semi backing down. You know, he, he got up in the on the, I think it was the Monday morning and said, oh, I didn't really mean it.
And that was after the king and the Prime Minister had basically the king had sent a note over the weekend expressing his displeasure and, and Sir Keir Stamer spoke to him on the Sunday. And I think that showed the kind of you wonder which had the most impact. I wonder whether it was the King's note that had had more of an impact perhaps than Starmer kind of lecturing, lecturing Trump on the phone. But I mean, aren't we talking
about a life post Trump though? Because by the time the general election comes round, we're going to be looking at who's next, aren't we? We're going to be looking at is it JD Vance, Is it Marco Rubio? Who is who is the person in in the White House? Democrat? Do you remember the Democrat? Yeah, I'd like to say. No, I'd like to say. Assuming that. Biden. Obama. You know Clinton. This is Channel 4. This is Channel 4. Absolutely. Of course, there might be a new West Wing.
Don't start profiling us, Kitty. Like that we're. Slavishly neutral. Let me, let me finish on, let me finish on. A very quick question to all of you is, you know, again, if it comes to push comes to shove, is the fact that the reformers absorbing all these Tories, even if they're husbands, does it make them more clubbable?
You know, to people in the middle who still find the idea of voting for reform a little bit, you know, out, you know, off of Broadway that they'll vote for them because of all these former Tories there. And therefore, in a contest between Reform and Labour, does Reform win it quickly? First you, Liam, then Kitty, then Paul I think.
The more Tories that enter, particularly from who were a Tory government that was so roundly beaten for its failures over 14 years, becomes a bigger problem for reform. I think Zia Youssef has actually said they're going to stop, they're going to have a deadline for when they stop inviting them all in, so they're getting their applications in. You can no longer sell us any second hand clothes after this day. We will not accept your pre loved items in this shop. OK, what about you?
Kitty, I mean so, so and I just think that that will become a bigger problem for them the more they come in here. All right, Kitty, what do you think? Is Reform unacceptable still for so many people that they even if they don't like the Labour Party, they can't quite bring themselves to see Nigel Farage and #10? I think actually it's the economics that's the problem, is that they're so all over the place and they're slightly hazy economic plans. It's like you never quite know
which way they're going to jump. Are they? Are they, you know, I, I for ages thought that Nigel Farage was a Thatcherite. And then you look at some of these state control of, of coal industry and you think, hang on a second, this isn't very Thatcherite and and welfare payments as well, and which is, is an odd place to land. I thought for, for reform. So I think we need to drill down and more into what they actually think.
But I think actually people are projecting on to reform at the moment the same way that perhaps they're projecting onto Andy Burnham. You know, these are outsiders and that they will come in and they will do what I think I want them to do rather than necessarily what they what they're saying. So, Paul, maybe Keir Starmer's the pot plant of British politics, sort of maligned, ignored, not watered enough, you know, written off, and suddenly he's still there. Have you just got a call or a
text from Morgan McSweeney? I'm sure that Morgan would use slightly more flattering language about his boss, but you're writing him off too, right? Hey, Stammer. Versus Stammer versus Farage, who becomes Prime Minister. I'm not right, I know. It's a parliamentary system. I'm not writing him off that fence. His, his own and many of his own MPs have already written him off. I think ultimately what it what it comes down to.
Back to what Kitty was saying earlier on, the mechanism is far from simple and what we know from history, the Labour backbenches and the people who would be challenging are not happy or not overly keen on wielding the knife. And those two things may be the thing that makes Keir Starmer stay in post for as long as possible. I've just had a brilliant idea turn the podcast on. I want from each of you a single word that sums up the last, you know, year and a half of Labour government.
One word ball, one word. Disappointing, disappointing Kitty. Phonetically disappointing. 2 words. OK, Liam. If it's got a dash in the middle, I think it's one word U-turn. OK, all right, OK, that's it. Very encouraging stuff from all of you. None of you are going to be on Morgan Mcsweeney's Christmas card list next year, I fear. Anyway, who knows? Liam Thorpe, Kitty Donaldson, Poor Mike Namara. Thank you very much to all of you. That was the forecast. Hope you enjoyed it.
See you next time.