Are you a Tory till the day you die? Oh, absolutely. So you'll never join reform? Never, never, ever, ever. We've seen that playbook before. We know where it leads. The reformer in government today on the economy, they will be a present danger to this country. I haven't spoken to a single senior Tory here at the conference who thinks that Kemi Vaidnock will still be in her job at the general election. Do you have absolute faith that she will? Kimi Badenov is our leader.
If anybody out there thinks that Tory party getting involved in another internal election contest is somehow going to advance our fortunes, they are deluded. Does the Tory Party have a a God-given right to exist? Hello and welcome to the forecast. We're in Manchester for the Conservative Party conference, where the Tories are in turmoil, trailing badly in the polls and
facing electoral oblivion. With Labour in power and Nigel Farage's Reform UK surging ahead, Shadow Chancellor Samel Stride joins me to explain how the Conservatives plan to regain momentum and rebuild their reputation as the party of economic competence. Are they simply an irrelevance? Well, Samel, you've been talking about cutting welfare to fund this National Insurance rebate to help people buy first homes.
You're being called Malay Stride after Javier Malay, the chainsaw wielding cutter in chief in Argentina. Do you like that comparison? I don't think I trust myself with a change, a change. I think it might be a terrible accident would happen. But look, what what I'm saying is that we need to recognize that we are living beyond our means as a country. You're seeing that in the size
of the debt that we're carrying. You're seeing that in the servicing costs on that debt at 100 billion a year, twice what we spend on defence. Yeah, we've all started under your. Well, we did have the small matter of COVID and, you know, the contraction of the economy that occurred and a lot of money that needed to be spent at that time, about 400 billion and Libra and all the other parties were urging us that if you remember to go even further than
we did. So I think there were some exceptional circumstances, but the reality remains that we need to have a recognition now that if we carry on the way we are, the wheels will come off our economy and it will be bad for all of us. So what we've been saying in my speech today is that we are serious about and making savings across government so that we can get the debt down, but also do through time things on tax that will help with the economy. And I had announcements to make on.
That too well, and one of the announcements is restricting benefits only to British citizens, exactly the same policy as reform. The difference between US and reform is that we have thought very carefully through the measures that we're putting forward. Reform, for example, have said that they will take everybody up to £20,000 out of income tax altogether.
That comes with a price tag, according to the IFS, of up to £80 billion, but half what we spend on the NHS every year with it's one and a half million employees. They have not explained to any degree how they will fund that or any plan to actually deliver on it. They are fantasy economists and what we're talking about is well thought through savings that we can deliver. Well is it well thought through though, because some of your
sums look a little bit sketchy. EU citizens with settled status have to access benefits because of the withdrawal agreement, so that takes quite a big chunk out of the potential. So they're not in our calculation. Exactly. They're not, but you know a lot of your, well, some of your front bench colleagues are saying, colleagues are saying unpick that withdrawal agreement. Is that on the agenda?
Should that be looked at? As things stand, there is a a treaty arrangement with the European Union. We are not speaking about going in and trying to renegotiate. You say, as things stand, well, you. Could in the future pick that, well, I'm not going to predict what happens in the future. I mean, we're not saying, well, they may well, well they may do and that's fine. They're you know, that's fine for them to express their to flare. Views.
Well, that's. Fine. And people, well, people will have. No, I didn't say that. What I said was that we have a treaty arrangement with Europe and that treaty stands, and that's why we have excluded EU nationals from that particular change. Just just again on the sums, you know, you didn't back the government's own welfare cuts of five and a half billion pounds. That was just political opportunity. That was to. Propose that one. No, not at all.
Because if you remember how that came about was that Rachel Reeves was approaching the spring statement, discovered from the OBR suddenly that all the headroom disappeared again second time round and needed to find some money and shouted over to DWP, find me 5 billion plus, actually shouted over twice because they came back with one lot. And then she found it wasn't quite enough on the revised OBR
figures. That's not a way to drive welfare reform by being sort of pulled along by the fiscal rules and so on. And that's why it wasn't principled and it wasn't the right thing to have done and we opposed. Even so, you're talking about, you know, having worked out all your figures, Therefore you're more responsible in reform, more responsible from Labour, more responsible than Labour in their last set of cuts.
But saving £8 billion from cutting civil servants 3 1/2 billion pounds by axing asylum hotels, You could have done both of those things in government. The costs of those two policies ballooned while you were in government. So civil servants in particular, the numbers bloomed because we had the Brexit and we also had COVID. You push through, I mean, which we had COVID, yeah, so the numbers went up. But you're quite right.
We are under new leadership now and we recognise that we do not need that number of civil servants. And mistakes were made under your. On your we, we, we did great things when we were in government and we made mistakes like all the governments do.
But the reality is to get back that number, which is a 25% cut to where it was in 2016, given we don't now have those particular pressure and we got things like AI and productivity driving technology that is eminently achievable and we will do that over a period of five years after the next election if
we're elected. You're trying to find the middle ground of British politics, you know you've got reform on one end, you've got Labour in power, you're trying to sort of find this middle Rd. Does it exist though? Does the centre not hold anymore? Liberal minded Tories going to just go and vote Lib Dem next time. Well, well, it's interesting that you can't characterize reform as being to the right. I would say they're marching to the left. They are in some. Ways and not in others.
No, they they want the National. Economically to the left, socially to the right. Well, there we are. If your premises are economically to the left, in my terms as the shadow Chancellor, they are to the left. So they want to nationalise things and utilities. They want to abolish the two child benefit cap. That means spending more on welfare, not less. An extra 3 1/2 billion pounds a year.
Those are the kind of policies, well, frankly, actually, of a party that will just go out and say what it thinks the various people it's talking to want them to say. Well, that's probably if. It's true. Vote for you. That's my point. I mean, you had John Curtis the pollster saying that as things stand at the moment more the Lib Dems would win more seats than you. So you know, Liberal Tories will just go well. Let's get them to that.
We can't be led by where the polls are today as to what we do as to what we do for an election that will probably be in four years time. What we've got to do is hold our nerves, stay true due to our conservative principles, set out policies when it's right to do so and when we've done the thinking, we've done that at this conference.
One of the things that I don't think anybody will be able to leave this this conference and say is we don't know what the Conservatives stand for on borders. We've been very clear on the ECHR, Big bold move. We thought about it carefully. We had Lord Walsam do all that
work. And on the economy, the things that I've been saying this morning about living within our means, but also showing that whilst a lot of that money needs to go to bearing down on the debt, we can, if we do this, make the savings actually get some taxes down that will get the economy going. Does the Tory party have a God-given right to exist? Or when it comes to the next election, if Reform end up the biggest party, do you have to just throw in your lot with them?
Well, all these hypotheticals about four years time. Look, the the big thing about politics today is uncertainty. If you were interviewing me in 2019 and I were a socialist, Cathy, you'd be saying you've just had the worst results since the 1930s. You're going to be out of power for a generation, aren't you? So. It's all to. Play for and yeah, and yet the Labour Party get one of the largest landslides in British
political history. The same thing you could say of the Canadian election with Pierre Poliev 23 points up came to the election. He not only lost it, he lost his own seat. These things. Will move. Around you as a person, you know, there's been quite we'll come to this in a second with quite a few facts about male stride that have been floating around this conference. Are you a Tory till the day you die? Oh, absolutely. I'm a conservative. Never, never, ever, ever.
Right. And do you think that holds for a large number of conservatives that whatever happens in the next election, you are going to remain as a force? Well, yeah, absolutely. And and what you're saying at this conference is setting up serious, well thought through policies that have grown up because we're not sometimes just
saying the easy things. I said a lot of things that you're rightly challenging me on and saying, well, you know, can you really afford this and can you really say that? And all that sounds a bit, you know, these are the things that serious grown up politicians have to do. And we're demonstrating now right here in Manchester that we are up for government. We are doing the hard yards, the hard thinking and we're going to take the serious trouble.
So what do you say to colleagues who are thinking about defecting to reform? There's quite a lot of them. Well, I don't know who's thinking of doing that that or not, but I would say, I would say if it's on the basis that you think that it's a foregone conclusion that you know the outcome of a general election in four years time, then if that's the basis on which you're moving, I I would be thinking again, nobody knows. Absolutely not.
Be part of a merged Tory reform. Party I see no common ground on, for example, the economy between US and reform. I see a party that is fiscally irresponsible, that is going to go, is going out there and promising all sorts of giveaways without properly looking at how that'll be funded. We've seen that playbook before. We know where it leads and if reformer in government today on the economy, they would be a present danger to this country. So why would I want to get?
Involved, right? So you have. Why would you? Rule out being part of a merged. Party before I am, Yes, yes, I am not going to be predicting. You know you're drawing into all these hypotheticals. As. Interviewers love to do. It's the great sport, isn't it? But what I'm saying is I'm not going to get into hypotheticals in the future, but there is no I'm not. No, I, I'm, no, I am not up for a merger with Reform. I'm not up for joining Reform and I don't think I could make that much clearer.
Yeah, OK. You've had welfare cuts, mass deportations, withdrawing from the ECHR, you've even announced in a policy a policy today abolishing business rates for High Street businesses. Whatever happened to waiting until 2027 for policies? Isn't that extraordinary? You should ask me that. When? About a month ago, before the conference, you'd be saying, what on earth do you stand for? Where are your policies? Well, now we're coming out with them.
You're now saying, well, why didn't you wait? Yeah, but you know you. Can't win? You've panicked. You can't win. No, you've. Got desperate. You've looked at the polls, you say. You look at the polls. What you do? Not at all, not at all. What we are doing, we've said this from the start, is doing the deep thinking around the challenges our country faces and coming up with the right policies. And as we come up with those policies, we will put those policies out there.
So I have set out, yeah, you were gonna, I've set out, I've set out a series of savings totaling £47 billion. It's a large amount of money. And what I'm saying is the majority of that must go to paying down debt, but that leaves some to do other things. And what we've sent today is a very clear signal that we are pro business. We understand that we need to free businesses up to drive growth. We are reaching out to young
people. So the National Insurance first job bonus that I announced today is very much a clear message to younger generations that we are, we are on their side. When they go out and do the right thing, when they're aspirational, work hard, we will be there right behind. I haven't spoken to a single senior Tory here at the conference who thinks that Kemi Baedenock will still be in her job at the general election. Do you have absolute faith that she will? Kemi Baedenock is our leader.
She has a very clear vision. She has a very clear vision for the Conservative Party. She is somebody who will hold her nerve. She's somebody who's extremely resilient. This is one of the things that people too often dismiss or don't even think about. She's doing the hardest job in British politics. Mine's a pretty hard job, hers is a much harder job and she's doing it in a very calm, measured way.
If anybody out there thinks that the Tory party getting involved in another internal election contest is somehow going to advance our fortunes, they are deluded. Well, just so she is going to be our leader in my my view, right the way through to the general election. And as I say, I think there's all to play for. Look, you mentioned Reform, 31% are they know to you're you're not. Yeah, where was the SDP back in 19? 81 to SDP. Of no, but I do think the SDPI know we're at over 50% in the
polls. In the 83 election they got about 20 odd seats. Just finally. Things can change. You've absolutely, categorically assured us that Kenny Badenoch will still be in post, but up to the general election. But there's a little list doing the rounds on WhatsApp about 10 things you didn't know about Mel Stride. You're a licensed pilot, a scuba diver, a Stonehenge qualified tour guide. You've penned an unpublished novel set in the 60s US music scene. I mean, you've got quite a hint
to land. I wonder whether that's that list is doing the rounds because you quite fancy, although you crashed out in the last leadership contest. If there's a sort of need for an eminence grease, I mean not very great, but a bit grease. You know sperm. Hand on the tiller to step in to just tide you over to the next general election. You'd be there.
I am there putting my shoulder to the wheel, supporting Kemi, working with the shadow cabinet to get another Conservative government and you know, if people are interested in my wild swimming or novels that weren't published or flying aeroplanes. I mentioned wild. Swimming. Yeah, great. The wild swimming or whatever else is out there, then great. You know, I think people should know something about their politicians.
And, you know, hopefully it's brightened a few lives, you know, knowing that I do all those. Smells great. Thank you very much for joining us. That is it from the forecast. Thank you very much for watching Back Soon.