We delve into the remarkable growth of Guyana's economy, which has been the fastest growing in the world for several years. Fueled by its booming oil and gas sector, Guyana's real GDP is projected to increase by 45% in 2024. Our senior economist provides insights into the factors driving this growth, including the rise in oil production and the government's focus on infrastructure and economic diversification. We also discuss the potential impact on inflation, foreign direct investment, and the ...
May 25, 2024•15 min•Ep. 219
In this episode, our expert economists dive into the world of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and its impact on global markets. We kick off with an intriguing discussion on the reassessment of central bank policies and the implications for financial markets. The PMI economists delve into the key drivers of inflation, such as rising wages and material costs, and analyze the pricing power of firms in various sectors. The conversation then shifts to the newly launched PMI survey for the Kuwai...
May 18, 2024•20 min•Ep. 218
Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets each month. In this episode, we delve into the trends and developments shaping the banking risk landscape in mainland China, Ukraine, emerging Europe, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates. Listen now to gain a deeper understanding of the factors influencing credit expansion and the potential implications for businesses and investments in these markets. Featured expert: Natasha McSwiggan , S...
May 11, 2024•9 min•Ep. 217
The chip industry sits at the nexus of national security and economic development policies. That has resulted in a race both in supporting national investments in the semiconductor sector as well as escalating restrictions against sharing technology. This episode brings Economics and Country Risk together with the Next in Tech podcast, hosted by Eric Hanselman. Chris Rogers and John Abbott join Eric and Economics and Country Risk host Kristen Hallam to dig into the dynamics and geopolitical pres...
May 04, 2024•28 min•Ep. 216
The prolongation of existing — and emergence of new — armed conflicts will likely remain a major source of geopolitical instability in the world economy, according to our strategic report on key themes for 2024. Following Iran’s recent strike on Israel, we pose the question: What could an escalation mean for the global economy? Featured expert: Ken Wattret , Vice-President, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Downlo...
Apr 27, 2024•16 min•Ep. 215
Companies are finding that supply chain disruption is not receding and the reliability of input, such as transportation is not returning to normal. We see a need to invest in resilience projects that cut risk and improve profitability, such as reshoring. Reshoring, of course, has its challenges, including labor costs and availability and infrastructure. We discuss those challenges in this episode. Featured experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence: Aries Poon , Head of Asia-Pacific Insight...
Apr 20, 2024•30 min•Ep. 214
Global demand continues to tread water, with the construction and manufacturing sectors facing headwinds from high interest rates. Suppliers are responding by controlling output, with sporadic idling and curtailed investment plans meaning less excess capacity in 2024 to absorb supply shocks. Along with logistics woes that cause higher rates and longer delivery times, risk is rising. In this episode, our expert discusses logistics challenges and the outlook on shipping disruptions due to reroutin...
Apr 13, 2024•10 min•Ep. 213
Steel prices are weak, and that makes it a buyer's market. What's fueling that weakness? How long will it last? Where is demand strongest? Our expert provides insights into steel markets, including those for carbon steel and electrical steel, that will inform purchasing decisions now and into the future. Featured expert: John Anton , Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/anton-john.html Explore our full library of S&am...
Apr 06, 2024•12 min•Ep. 212
Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices. Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the incr...
Mar 30, 2024•25 min•Ep. 211
Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices. Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the incr...
Mar 23, 2024•23 min•Ep. 210
In their first podcast of the year, our Purchasing Managers' Index team of economists provide insights on the impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions on supplier delivery times and where those effects are being felt the most. They also discuss the latest data on manufacturing and construction in the eurozone, through the prism of Greece and Italy. The team also unveils our newest PMI dataset, on Romania's manufacturing sector. Featured experts: Paul Smith , Director, Economic Indices, S&P Glo...
Mar 16, 2024•21 min•Ep. 209
If you’re a chocolate lover, you probably eat up headlines declaring how good it is for your health. You may also get alarmed by news stories of supply shortages or disruptions. But where does it come from and what route does it take to get to you? In this episode, our experts reveal who the biggest players are in the global cocoa trade. (Spoiler alert: Switzerland is not the biggest exporter of chocolate.) They also discuss the trade in finished chocolate products, marzipan and jellybeans and w...
Mar 09, 2024•21 min•Ep. 208
National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade and investment. Countries will cooperate where objectives align, and areas of competition will likely increase. How faster-growing economies exercise their rising economic and geopolitical influence will be key. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcome of dozens of scheduled elections. I...
Mar 02, 2024•29 min•Ep. 207
In our first episode of 2024, we talked about our top 10 predictions for the global economy in the coming year. In this episode, we unveil our U.S. regional economic predictions for 2024, a year of uncertainty as Americans prepare for elections in November. You’ll hear about our expectations for the unemployment rate, job growth, consumer price index inflation, real wage increases, domestic migration and housing affordability. We’ll also discuss where we expect to see the biggest changes and how...
Feb 24, 2024•29 min•Ep. 206
One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity. How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy? Featured expert: Mark Szakonyi , Executive ...
Feb 17, 2024•18 min•Ep. 205
In this episode, our experts provide regional insights into construction markets around the globe. Learn more about what's impacting construction spending in North and South America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa. This deeper dive into regional themes for 2024 follows our previous episode on the global outlook for contruction spending and illustrates the economic fault lines we see in this disjointed world. Featured experts: Jeannine Cataldi , associate...
Feb 10, 2024•27 min•Ep. 204
In this episode, we share insights from our webinar on the global construction outlook for 2024. We discuss changes in our macroeconomic forecast that inform our outlook for construction spending and provide an overview of regional construction markets. Featured expert: Jeannine Cataldi , associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intellige...
Feb 03, 2024•9 min•Ep. 203
S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will cut across the themes of economic fault lines and resource security with a discussion of labor market trends we're tracking in 2024. Learn more about what trends will persist in 2024, and which will change direction. Featured experts: Emily Crowley , Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/crowley-em...
Jan 27, 2024•27 min•Ep. 202
S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of supply chain resilience. Supply chain resilience is vital and costly amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy implementation. Companies will weigh strategies such as inventory expansion, multi sourcing, and reshoring. Will companies be willing and able to pay for necessary investments in these strategies as corporate cash flows come under pressure? Fe...
Jan 20, 2024•19 min•Ep. 201
We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering. National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have m...
Jan 13, 2024•21 min•Ep. 200
S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024. Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year. Featured expert: Ken Wattret , Global economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/...
Jan 06, 2024•19 min•Ep. 199
The global environment has still not settled onto a clear pathway toward a new stability. As we enter 2024 in this disjointed world, we confront risks posed by potential volatility across the economic and political spheres. We also see potential opportunities arising from the new reality of greatly segmented global relationships. In this episode, we discuss five overlapping themes as key for 2024: economic fault lines, geopolitical reordering, supply chain resilience, logistics rewired, and reso...
Dec 16, 2023•28 min•Ep. 198
Financial conditions in the US have tightened significantly of late, with a rapid jump in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, a material rise in the dollar, slowing in bank lending and continued weakness in equities. This argues for a slowing in growth of demand and GDP in coming quarters. In this episode of the Economics & Country Risk podcast, a member of our US economics team discusses the sharp fluctuations in interest rates over the last month or two. What’s behind the backup in ...
Dec 09, 2023•11 min•Ep. 197
Deceptive shipping practices began to emerge as a topic of interest in 2020, following guidance from the US Treasury Department. Subterfuge shipping has always been an issue. But this proverbial game of cat and mouse has continued to escalate in terms of the complexity of tactics used to circumvent these regulations, as well as the industry tools used to identify and combat them. How are the tactics used in subterfuge shipping activities evolving? And what risks do they pose for businesses and f...
Dec 02, 2023•16 min•Ep. 196
Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting populations, countries’ economic performances and key industries that rely on water as an essentia...
Nov 25, 2023•23 min•Ep. 195
Our Purchasing Managers' Index team discusses key 2023 themes through the lens of economies in the Americas. The economists see quite a subdued picture in Canada from their latest survey results. Firms are concerned about high interest rates and how they may squeeze clients' budgets. The newly launched PMI for the Canadian service sector, which covers private sector services accounting for about half of the country's GDP, offers additional insights into business activity, new orders, employment ...
Nov 18, 2023•21 min•Season 1Ep. 194
Inflation was the economic bogeyman of 2022. Some Central European central banks believe they’ve banished the bogeyman and are cutting or preparing to cut interest rates. The story in neighboring Russia and Turkey is different, with central banks there making defensive moves to shore up the countries’ currencies. What is driving inflation trends in these economies? And where are rates there heading? Featured experts: Andy Birch , associate director, Europe & CIS economics, S&P Global Mar...
Nov 11, 2023•29 min•Ep. 193
We share our outlook for commercial and residential construction in Europe. We expect nonresidential structure spending to decline across the region. The speed and intensity of the correction in the eurozone housing market will vary by country. What is driving our outlook in these markets? What headwinds are these markets facing, and when are they likely to ease? Featured experts: Amandeep Bahra , senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence Anja Heimann , senior Europe economist, S&...
Nov 04, 2023•14 min•Ep. 192
In this episode, we share an excerpt from our recent webinar exploring our latest global construction outlook. Our expert discusses the global economic drivers of construction markets, highlight changes in our forecast, and pinpoint areas of strength and weakness. Featured expert: Jeannine Cataldi , associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Marke...
Oct 28, 2023•15 min•Ep. 191
Political change is coming to South and Southeast Asia. Elections have concluded this year in the Maldives and Thailand, and are scheduled to take place in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in the next year. With these elections comes the potential for sweeping policy changes and government instability. What forces will shape this new political order? Where are we likely to see the greatest shift in policy direction? And how will these new governments interact with their neig...
Oct 23, 2023•23 min•Ep. 190
