Our forecast for US holiday sales is looking "delightfully average," according to Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumer spending has shown resilience to tightening financial conditions, thanks to a strong labor market and rising wages. Banks, meanwhile, are eyeing deposit levels and delinquencies as interest rates have crept higher and inflation persists. Delinquencies are rising — but from historically low rates, said Nathan Stovall, director of fi...
Oct 14, 2023•24 min•Ep. 189
The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize. But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive and sustainability policies are starting to have real consequences for supply chains. Water stress and...
Oct 07, 2023•20 min•Ep. 188
Russia's economy seemed to show remarkable resilience in the face of waves of sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine. But recently the bank of Russia had to take steps to shore up a weakening ruble. Are the sanctions finally biting? And how much of a bite would it take to get Russia to the negotiating table? We discuss what has supported Russia's economy during wartime, shifts in trade routes, currency effects, and our near-term outlook. Featured expert: Lilit Gevorgyan, Associate Direc...
Sep 30, 2023•23 min•Ep. 187
The US market for home improvement was at an all-time high during the pandemic when many people were forced to live, work, and educate their children under the same roof. That demand disrupted supply chains for labor and materials and drove price inflation for lumber and other goods. This year the market looks different, thanks to higher interest rates on home improvement loans, reduced availability of homes to buy, and new incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act. Find out how the pro and D...
Sep 23, 2023•15 min•Ep. 186
2023 has delivered some extreme weather, from extreme heat in Southern Europe to a dry spell that affected crop yields in Southeast Asia and Australia, often with tragic human consequences. Extreme weather events like droughts and floods also present risks to economies and supply chains. For example, the level of the Rhine River in Europe can impact the transportation of a range of raw materials, rippling through to industrial performance. Our Purchasing Managers' Index and other survey data can...
Sep 16, 2023•21 min•Ep. 185
We all think of emissions when we’re stuck in traffic, cars idling all around us. But how many of us think of ships waiting to get into busy ports? We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while. What is the shipping industry doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets — and save money in the process? Featured expert: Turloch Mooney , director, S&P Global Market Intelligence h...
Sep 09, 2023•23 min•Ep. 184
South Africa hosted this year’s heads of state summit for the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and mainland China along with South Africa. The alliance admitted Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as members from January 2024. And there’s an indication of future expansion as well. What's the reasoning behind the expansion, and why are these countries eager to join? Featured expert: Lange Malimela , head of Country Risk for sub-Saharan Africa at S&...
Sep 02, 2023•16 min•Ep. 183
Sub-Saharan Africa has a potentially important role to play in the global supply chain of critical minerals, having very sizeable reserves of minerals needed for the green economy transition. Development of extractive industries on the continent is often constrained by weak infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and narrow financial markets. The increasing scrutiny over the compliance with environmental, social, and governance standards also poses challenges. We explore these challenges and oppo...
Aug 26, 2023•17 min•Ep. 182
Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets. Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on. How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence its trajectory? We discuss our recent report on the outlook for the war. Featured expert: Alex Kokcharov , Associate Director, Country Risk, Europe and CIS https://www.s...
Aug 19, 2023•23 min•Ep. 181
Cars. Steel. Semiconductors. Appliances. Pharmaceuticals. More products are being made in Mexico for the US market — a trend known as nearshoring. In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We started with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opportunities in episode one. We delved into the operational side in episode two. And in this, the final episode in the series, we’ll tell the ...
Aug 12, 2023•25 min•Ep. 180
Building your manufacturing facility in Mexico can pay dividends. It can also pose risks to your business. How do companies weigh these factors when deciding whether to locate their operations in Mexico? In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. In our first episode, We set the scene with an overview of the economic and geopolitical forces driving the trend. In this episode, we’ll delve into the oper...
Aug 05, 2023•29 min•Ep. 179
You may have heard about companies nearshoring to Mexico. Each week there seems to be another headline announcing an investment in the country’s manufacturing sector. In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We’ll start in this episode with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opportunities. Featured speakers: Rafael Amiel , director of Latin America economics https://www.spglobal....
Jul 29, 2023•28 min•Ep. 178
Supply chains are almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventories and seasonality. Yet there are plenty of uncertainties in both government policy and physical risk heading into the second half of 2023. In this episode, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence shares insights from his recent Q3 outlook report. Featured speaker : Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rog...
Jul 22, 2023•25 min
Our Purchasing Managers' Index team compiles data for more than 40 economies around the world. In this episode, the economists explore the divergence in the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors in countries including Australia and Greece. They zero in on how this is showing up in labor markets, looking at employment growth and wages. Learn more about our Purchasing Managers' Index here: http://ow.ly/VjM050OsqWf Featured speakers : Paul Smith , Director, Economic Indices, S&P...
Jul 15, 2023•21 min
The 74-year-old North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known as NATO, is holding its summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12. The event will be attended by representatives of the 31 member states, as well as candidate country Sweden. Aspiring NATO members Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine are also likely to send delegates. What's on their agenda? And how is NATO staying relevant in a world of shifting geopolitical alliances? Hear from our experts: Lindsay Newman , Head of G...
Jul 08, 2023•23 min
House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market. In this episode — the third and final installment of our series on housing markets around the globe — we zero in on select ma...
Jul 01, 2023•30 min
House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market. In this episode — the second of three in our series on housing markets around the globe — we explore select markets in the Mi...
Jun 24, 2023•27 min
House prices experienced sharp increases in most developed economies during the last decade as record-low interest rates supported demand for property. The tightening of global monetary conditions over the past year has driven a softening of house prices, which in some key markets are expected to decline in 2023 and 2024. The degree of impact, of course, varies by market. In this episode — the first of three on housing markets — our experts look at the US, Canada and Europe. What are the common ...
Jun 17, 2023•34 min•Ep. 172
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking to position Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, as a country willing to expand and diversify its trade relations. The government is seeking to strengthen strategic sectors such as agribusiness, manufacturing, renewable energy and infrastructure, particularly via public-private partnerships. Even with emerging opportunities, companies operating in Brazil — or seeking to establish commercial relations with Brazilian counterparts — will face ...
Jun 10, 2023•40 min
On May 28, voters in Turkey went to the polls for a second time to choose their president after a vote two-weeks earlier proved inconclusive. In this second round, current President Erdogan won a close contest 52% to 48%, extending his two-decade long administration for at least another five years. What does his victory mean for the country, the region and the world? Our experts share their insights. Featured speakers: Jessica Leyland , senior analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Andy B...
Jun 03, 2023•25 min•Ep. 170
It’s a big year for India. It’s become the world’s most populous country. In September, it will host the G20 summit, at a crucial time for global partnerships in a post-pandemic world and an ongoing conflict in Ukraine. And in just about a year, voters will go to the polls in parliamentary elections. These recent global events have prompted India to recalibrate its geopolitical strategy. India has earmarked manufacturing as a key sector to manifest its global ambitions, not least to attract jobs...
May 27, 2023•30 min
As the stressed economy continues to impact global industries, volatility, reduced demand, disrupted supply chains, and higher costs, among other factors, are affecting businesses' revenue and cash flow, and many industries are at a higher risk of the likelihood of default and bankruptcy. Credit and risk management professionals need to be prepared for unpredictable conditions and act quickly to manage their credit risk exposure and minimize potential losses. In this bonus podcast episode, our e...
May 23, 2023•37 min•Ep. 168
Our Purchasing Managers' Index team compiles data for more than 40 economies around the world. In this episode, the economists unpack recent events in sub-Saharan Africa and discuss how the PMI data illuminate economic trends across the region. Featured speakers: Paul Smith Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https...
May 20, 2023•22 min•Ep. 167
What is driving construction spending in 2023? Our expert discusses the economic forces at play in various regions and shares our global outlook for the year.
May 13, 2023•14 min
Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not work with the G7 oil price cap for crude oil that took effect in December 2022, or with the subsequent price cap on refined products that became effective in February 2023. If Russia insists on not conforming to the price cap, it can't use services located in G7 countries due to sanctions controls. This scenario gives rise to the need for a substantial shadow or ghost fleet of vessels able to transport Russian oil as close to capacity as possible whi...
May 06, 2023•28 min•Ep. 165
We began 2023 grappling with worries of high and persistent inflation. Now we are looking at a new downside risk to the global economy: turbulence in the banking sector. Recent events have sparked a fear of contagion—and a crisis in confidence—especially in the US and Western Europe. How worried should we be? What comes next? Our experts discuss the differences between now and the 2008 crisis, and dig into what this means for economic growth, sector health, and policy responses. John Raines (mod...
Apr 29, 2023•39 min•Ep. 164
The US economy has been on a roller coaster ride since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, making the job of economists even harder. What indicators should we be paying attention to as we watch for a recession that may or may not materialize? Where should we look for signs that inflation is easing? Here to share his insights on these questions is: Chris Varvares, Vice President and co-head of US Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/var...
Apr 22, 2023•24 min•Ep. 163
The year 2023 is a year of two halves for global supply chains. During second quarter 2023, a normalization of supply chain conditions will continue after getting underway in late 2022. Later in 2023, post-pandemic corporate strategies should be clearer and global policy uncertainties may be resolved. What do purchasing managers and C-suite executives need to know to make smart business decisions? S&P Global Market Intelligence's head of supply chain research shares insights from his report ...
Apr 17, 2023•28 min
While the Russia-Ukraine war continues, violent incidents are occurring across the globe, including ongoing protests in Europe, terrorist attacks in Africa, criminal activity in Mexico, and the potential for conflict in the Middle East. In this episode, our experts assess how these episodes of violence are impacting businesses and what companies are doing to mitigate their exposure. John Raines (moderator) https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.html Jose Macip, Senior Analyst...
Apr 08, 2023•38 min
The global economic expansion is moving forward at a subdued pace in 2023, as tightening monetary policies and pandemic scars are creating challenging business conditions. Tight labor market conditions could delay progress in reducing inflation, prompting more aggressive monetary policy responses that threaten growth. Our experts share their views on the global economic outlook. Sara Johnson, Executive Director, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/ent...
Apr 01, 2023•34 min
