Local COVID-related lockdowns in mainland China, the war in Ukraine, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the global economy – especially in China and surrounding geographies. Our PMI surveys are showing some of the steepest reductions in overall Chinese business activity and new orders since the initial wave of the pandemic in 2020. Digging deeper into the underlying numbers, our PMI team discusses what this all means for manufacturing health, labor market...
May 19, 2022•21 min
A number of critical elections in 2022 will influence more than who holds political office. With a rapidly shifting political landscape and an ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, we are watching the lead-up and outcomes closely to understand the direct influence the results will have on trade policy, security, migration, supply chains, and climate agendas. Our Economics & Country Risk experts discuss the importance to your business of upcoming elections in the United States, Australia, Brazi...
May 14, 2022•48 min
Join our metals experts, John Anton and John Mothersole as they delve into the volatility of metals pricing in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with the growing COVID-19 outbreak in China. These two factors two factors are placing immense stress on steel, copper, and aluminum markets. And while we usually hear a singular global story – this month regions are telling their own pricing tales. What does this mean for buyers, manufacturers, and consumers? How high is too high? John An...
Apr 21, 2022•24 min
Like most of the world, the Sub-Saharan African region is only slowly starting to recover from the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. With growing supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and growing uncertainty due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, the region is facing additional recovery challenges. Our experts discuss the sharp escalation in global food prices, such as wheat and cooking oil; the implications of the high oil price in the region; and consequences of disruptive trade ...
Apr 02, 2022•19 min
Our PMI(TM) team digs into the February PMI survey results which indicate waning impacts from COVID-19 on the services economies and large bounces across the Globe. While several countries are still feeling the pressures from lockdowns and continuing waves of uncertainty, improving demand, capacity and business confidence are showing positive signs of improvement. The team also addresses the impact of firms passing on rising operating costs to end users and clients. What will this mean for susta...
Mar 19, 2022•21 min
Pricing pressures on nonferrous metals have negatively impacted the machinery and equipment categories – specifically electrical machinery. If we layer on supply issues around transformers, motors, and generators we are facing a whole new challenge around availability and cost. And this time it could hit the consumer wallet. What’s behind the long lead times and shortages? What will this mean for refrigerator motors, electric car motors, and more? Our pricing and purchasing team tackle the real ...
Feb 26, 2022•15 min
Commodity prices experience huge spikes over the past two years. We are beginning to see escalation rates slow for many raw materials. However, between rising inflation rates and growing consumer demand, pricing pressures are being felt by the end consumer. Our pricing and purchasing team digs in to understand how inflation, cost of good, labor costs, and commodity prices are going to fair in the near-term. John Mothersole https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/mothersole-john John Anton https://...
Feb 26, 2022•16 min
The US Federal Reserve is expected to start rate tightening in March. What will this mean for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with less solid macroeconomic fundamentals? Our Africa team discusses which countries are at most risk, how they could secure debt restructuring, how they will be impacted by rising inflation, and if security developments will influence fiscal developments across the region. Thea Fourie https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/fourie-thea Chris Suckling https://experts.ihsma...
Feb 19, 2022•16 min
Volatility shocks to a wide range of sectors will likely continue for much of the year ahead. Not only are global threats increasing, but they’re also becoming intertwined. In this week’s episode, listen in as our experts uncover the critical dynamics of today’s localized conflicts, the shift towards climate justice, and an intensifying competition for critical resources. Link to webcast: https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/3595132/22ECBA9DC6C4501EB741C5C413C24D30?partnerref=Ondemand-podcast
Feb 12, 2022•3 min
Immigration has quickly become one of the frontline issues affecting the stability of societies and economies. Traditional drivers of irregular migration, such as economic stress, security, and conflict, are likely to intensify in the coming year. Stalled economic recoveries, climate and environmental stressors, and the political weaponization of migration are driving additional risks. Our experts delve into the impact of migration on economies, security, supply chains, and policy. John Raines, ...
Feb 03, 2022•40 min
Our sub-Saharan research team discusses the current political challenges connected to elections, and pre-elections, in South Africa and Nigeria. What are the main social and economic policy issues for the coming year? Is the Covid-19 pandemic still creating social and economic complications and how will this influence voters? And most critically, what role will fuel price pressures and fuel subsidies have on the outcome of these elections? Langelihle Malimela, Country Risk Senior Analyst– Africa...
Jan 25, 2022•26 min
Following on a year of severe supply disruption including weather, trade challenges, and supply chain breakdowns, are chemical markets slowly starting to right themselves? Our Pricing and Purchasing team talks through buying conditions region by region. John Anton Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john Michael Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/dall-michael.html
Jan 20, 2022•20 min
IHS Markit economists will reveal our top-10 predictions for the global economy in 2022. Topics include the recovery paths of major economies, trends in interest rates and inflation, trade, exchange rates, financial markets, environmental policies post COP26, as well as geopolitical and social unrest risks. Chris Varvares, Co-Head of US Economics (moderator) Joel Prakken, Chief US Economist Ken Wattret, Chief European Economist Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, Chief International Economist Sara Johns...
Jan 10, 2022•37 min
Like the rest of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa suffered greatly from COVID-19 outbreaks and the resulting lock downs. Our Africa team explores how Africa and constituent countries fared through 2021 and then take us to 2022 and what they see in terms of economic growth, external pressures, rising political challenges, and the threat of civil conflict. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Thea Fourie, Asso...
Dec 18, 2021•40 min
Our PMI data have long been used to accurately nowcast - assess the current health of economies. Relying on its early release, well in advance of comparable official data, and its standardized methodology its an accurate early indicator. Our analysts are now using these same attributes to explore how PMI data could help establish whether a currency is over, under, or valued just right. Intrigued? Out PMI research team discusses currency valuations, the impact of price pressures on business perfo...
Dec 13, 2021•24 min
The United States and the EU have agreed to Section 232 revisions that take effect on 1 January 2022. The new agreement is much like the quota-and-tariff “safeguard” regime already in place in Europe. A certain tonnage may be imported from the EU to the United States tariff-free. After the quota fills, additional tons face a 25% tariff. What will this do to steel prices? How about supply? John Mothersole and John Anton discuss the changes this policy shift will have on markets, manufacturers, an...
Dec 04, 2021•12 min
What’s new in the infrastructure bill and when will we start to see the benefits? Two critical questions to understand when looking at the Infrastructure Bill just passed by the House and Senate. John Anton and John Mothersole sit down to break this big spend bill apart and help us get into the details of the impact to our supply chains, industries, and of course metals markets. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anton-john John Mothers...
Dec 04, 2021•12 min
The news is filled with articles about the semiconductor shortage: how it’s impacting car manufacturing, slowing electronics production, and delaying consumer purchases. But what’s the real story? How do you pull the facts from the noise? Our research team pulls back the curtain to talk through what they were seeing and watching in the data as this shortage came to the forefront. Watch us put the data to work in our special report: https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/critical-supply-chains-m...
Nov 13, 2021•18 min
The concept of social license to operate has been around for a long time in both the mining and energy sectors. Many companies have established practices and strategies in place to work collaboratively with local constituents and organizations. Recently, we are seeing an increased interest outside of these two sectors. What’s driving this renewed interest, and does it tie into the growing focus on ESG? Our experts provide some recent examples, best practices, and their insights on what's next.
Oct 30, 2021•29 min
Having defeated the Afghan government militarily and negotiated the departure of foreign forces from the country, the Taliban’s focus is now on forming a government, demonstrating governance capability, and securing international recognition. However, recent Islamic State attacks underline growing terrorism risks and tensions in the region and hint at great challenges ahead. Get the complete story of what is unfolding across the region. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of Nor...
Oct 25, 2021•21 min
Choices made today by consumers, corporations, and governments are leading to consequences in the latter half of this century that determine whether we're going to avoid the most serious consequences of climate change. In today’s episode we discuss the physical and transitional risk of climate change and how governments are setting policy and corporations are setting strategy to deal with the reality that increased persistent volatility is becoming a chronic condition. John Raines, Principal Glo...
Oct 20, 2021•18 min
Fintech is a major force shaping the structure of the financial industry in Sub Saharan Africa and it is rapidly changing the competitive landscape. Block chain technologies specifically have shown great promise to solve issues around access to banking, money, and mortgages. Across the continent it’s also transforming access to energy, education and even healthcare. Is it too good to be true? Should Central Banks race to use digital currency? What should we be thinking about around social econom...
Oct 15, 2021•37 min
Understanding the full scope of the risks underlying your proposed projects is critical – from fiscal risk to political, operational, legal, and security risks. Our experts look at the full risk exposures impacting LNG projects in Mozambique and Tanzania using our country risk investment model. Piero Branella, Associate Director, Risk Intelligence, IHS Markit Roderick Bruce, Research and Analysis Associate Director, E&P Terms and Above-Ground Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/ex...
Oct 07, 2021•17 min
Tight labor markets are causing issues for services and manufacturing industries around the globe. These labor shortages are creating and exacerbating supply chain challenges and will continue to do so for at least the next 12 months. Our pricing team untangles this complicated challenge and explores the structural issues, wage growth pressures, social schemes, and training needs we will face as economic recovery from the pandemic moves forward. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS ...
Sep 28, 2021•24 min
With growing concerns around the increase in natural disasters, water shortages, and rising temperatures we are closely watching related unrest and even conflict driven by some of implications for climate change. In today’s episode we look how these incidents are disrupting regional stability, shaping future policy, shifting economic growth and investment plans, and re-imagining sectors and supply chains. Jordan Anderson, Senior Analyst, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/anderson-...
Sep 20, 2021•37 min
Malaysian factories suffered shutdowns in June due to the rise in Delta variant cases and, as of now, are still not operating at full capacity. Our PMI survey results showed a close-to-record decline in output and new orders. This does not bode well for Malaysian manufacturing, employment, and much needed relief in supply chain delays. But is it all dismal? Perhaps new fiscal policies in Hong Kong SAR offer some hope for recovery? Join our PMI economists as they discuss these issues and more. Pa...
Sep 13, 2021•20 min
Hakainde Hichilema, the leader of the United Party for National Development, won the 12 August Zambian presidential election. In today’s episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the important policy interventions we can expect from the new government and what this will mean for economic recovery and debt sustainability going forward. Langelihle Malimela, Senior analyst, Country Risk – Africa, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/malimela-langelihle Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub...
Sep 07, 2021•24 min
In this episode, our Pricing and Purchasing experts looking at the next level downstream at how the changes in commodity prices and shortages are impacting the cost and availability of machinery the machinery and equipment businesses need to operate. With record escalations in almost all commodities, we are just now seeing an explosion in prices in items these inputs feed. It’s becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to maintain prices as they once were – what can the market withstand and...
Aug 23, 2021•18 min
Often held up as the only democratic success story to come out of the Arab Spring, Tunisia has struggled through a decade of consistent unrest and poor economic growth. This all came to a head on 25 July when president, Kais Saied, activated article 80 of the Constitution thus suspending the activities of parliament and parliamentary immunity, and dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi. Our middle East and North Africa experts sit down to talk about the incidents that led to this soft coup, w...
Aug 14, 2021•39 min
What’s driving growth in manufacturing production around the globe? Our PMI economists join us to discuss what our PMI surveys are telling us in real-time about confidence, output, and supply disruption. Using the Czech Republic as a starting point, they discuss trends, delivery times, the spread of the Delta Variant, and our expectations for inflation. Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Senior Economics, Economic Indic...
Aug 07, 2021•20 min
