After many choppy weeks for commodity markets, the transition in pricing is finally beginning. However, the same cannot be said for the semiconductor industry. Continued tightness in supply, as well as increases in input costs, has created serious issues along the supply chain and across multiple industries. Our experts provide their thoughts on the current state of affairs, the short-term bumps, and the long-term structural factors that are going to be driving the market for the foreseeable fut...
Jul 31, 2021•20 min•Ep. 100
What began as violent protests calling for the release of former president Jacob Zuma from prison in several parts of KwaZulu-Natal province on 9 July has spiraled into significant destruction and unrest across South Africa. Join our South Africa research team as they assess how the damage to infrastructure and the consequent supply chain disruptions have altered growth prospects for the South African economy for 2021 and 2022. They will cover economic growth, options to effectively address the ...
Jul 27, 2021•24 min•Ep. 99
The US recently announced a long-awaited withdrawal despite the fact that the Taliban is making advancements in the country. Progress in many fronts seem illusive. John Raines and Asad Ali from our county risk team discuss the rise of Taliban activity in the region, why the US is going ahead with withdrawal, and what a post-civil war government could look like in the wake of fighting, discussions and negotiations. John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics &...
Jul 19, 2021•22 min•Ep. 98
The Prosperity Party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won 410 out of 436 seats in the Federal Parliament in an electoral process that excluded one-fifth of the country due to logistical issues, insecurity or conflict, and was boycotted by the Oromo Federalist Congress and Oromo Liberation Front. Experts from our economics and county risk teams sit down together to discuss what this means for government stability, financial opportunities, ongoing conflict, and economic growth. Langelihle Malimela, Se...
Jul 19, 2021•28 min•Ep. 97
The third wave of COVID-19 is heavily impacting Southern Africa. Infection rates have risen over 20% and deaths rose 15% in recent weeks. Our Economic and County Risk experts sit down to talk through the disease progression and the lessons learned by governments regarding lockdowns, vaccine rollout, and containment issues in countries with fragile healthcare systems. Will local responses trigger political unrest and protest? Join us to learn more. Thea Fourie, Associate Director, Sub-Saharan Afr...
Jul 10, 2021•19 min•Ep. 96
In today’s episode, we are once again talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but highly impactful events. Our risk experts, Carlos Caicedo and Alexia Ash share highlights from our Latin America SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) scenario. We consider three main issues in our worst-case scenario: · Prolonged economic recession · Add...
Jul 06, 2021•14 min•Ep. 95
The news, and our podcasts, have been filled with stories about the dramatic rise in lumber prices – until 2 weeks ago when prices fell. Join our Pricing and Purchasing and construction industry experts as they discuss what precipitated the price drop and whether prices will soon drop to pre-pandemic levels. They also turn their attention to the housing market where materials prices, inclusive of lumber, are up 9% but the cost of a new house is up 20%. They unpack what is driving up costs and ho...
Jun 29, 2021•18 min•Ep. 94
Sub-Saharan Africa suffered a sharp economic contraction over the last year. Pandemic lockdowns, trade and supply Chain disruptions, and employment disruptions had a marked impact on household and business wallets. In today’s episode, our SSA and PMI teams discuss the speed and magnitude of recovery across the region as countries begin to reopen despite the pandemic and slow vaccine rollouts. They will focus in our PMI data as they look at employment condition, recovery efforts, and what this ul...
Jun 19, 2021•15 min•Ep. 93
In today’s episode, we are doing something a little different- we are talking about an incident that is highly unlikely to happen – it’s called a Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS). Insurance companies rely on RDS to evaluate their books of business against unlikely, but impactful events. Our risk experts, Kevjn Lim and Alexia Ash, share a little bit of their analysis from our RDS on Iran regional war risks including our baseline forecast for the region, a description of the scenario, and the in...
Jun 12, 2021•13 min•Ep. 92
Commodity prices have experienced a spectacular rally since March of 2020. Are we finally seeing some weak signals that prices may be stabilizing? John Anton and John Mothersole join us again this month to talk about what they are seeing in commodity markets, the pressures on supply chains as they follow prices through the supply chain from raw materials to delivered goods, and what the price shifts look like by region and commodity. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https...
Jun 08, 2021•14 min•Ep. 91
In today’s episode, our Sub-Saharan team discusses the insurgency in the Cabo Delgado province (something we have been watching this year https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/terrorism-mozambiques-cabo-delgado-data.html) and the longer term implications of the ‘force majeure’ Total declared when it cancelled its contracts with local subcontractors, withdrew all its staff, and announced at least a year of delay to the key Afungi LNG project. Our analysts provide the background of the insurgenc...
May 29, 2021•15 min•Ep. 90
On the heels of Chad announcing it wanted to participate in the IMF-G20 debt restructuring initiatives, our Africa experts sit down to talk about the future of the CEMA region – from an economic and country risk perspective. Will Chad’s move spur other countries in the region in the same direction? Join us for an overview of the region, a deep dive into the monetary issues, and what lies ahead for the security of the region. Read more about the G20- IMF initiatives https://ihsmarkit.com/research...
May 22, 2021•14 min•Ep. 89
Transportation issues are compounding an already troubled supply chain as demand for goods outpaces supply around the globe. This is hurting procurement on cost and inventory as “just in time delivery” is stretched to the breaking point. Experts from our procurement and transportation teams sit down to take a look at which geographies and industries have been hit the hardest and answer the questions we all want to know: how bad is it really and how long with this last? John Anton, Director, Pric...
May 08, 2021•16 min•Ep. 88
With the rise of COVID-19 cases in India filling the news, our analysts take a look at what is unfolding on the ground and then provide some analysis of the economic and risk implications going forward. This country-specific podcast is part of our special series that explores COVID-19 vaccine rollout and vaccine diplomacy around the globe. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay.html Deepa Kumar, Deputy Head Country Risk, As...
May 06, 2021•15 min•Ep. 87
It’s a divided and disparate recovery story across the MENA region depending on each country’s ability to access and provide vaccines to their citizens. Researchers from our life sciences, country risk, and economics teams come together to discuss the specific risks and challenges felt around the region. They discuss medicine access and distribution, healthcare options, the role of Russian and Chinese vaccine diplomacy in the region, local manufacturing aspirations, the current outlook for econo...
May 05, 2021•28 min•Ep. 86
Europe and the UK have experienced an uneven rollout of vaccines. In today’s episode, our country risk and life science experts come together to talk about supply chain challenges, heightened protectionist moments, enhanced regulatory reviews, and even strange vaccine bedfellows as some countries turn to Russia’s Sputnik vaccine to push along herd immunity. Lindsay Newman (Moderator), Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://experts.ihsmarkit.com/experts/newman-lindsay Eoin Rya...
Apr 29, 2021•23 min•Ep. 85
Lumber prices are making headlines in the United States as they are sitting at a record high. Today’s episode, our lumber expert, Deni Koenhemsi, sits with John Anton from our pricing and purchasing team to talk about the pricing and availability of lumber. Some of the questions they tackle include why lumber is so expensive, if and when we may see some relief, and what the real risk is for things not going well going forward. John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, IHS Markit https://expe...
Apr 19, 2021•15 min•Ep. 84
Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a dearth of vaccines and will be reliant in 2021 on external vaccine supply, particularly through pooled procurement schemes. The WHO estimates that, at best, 30-35% of Africa's 1.3 billion population could be vaccinated in 2021. This slow rollout will result in strict lock-down measures and the economic knock-on effects will be felt across the region. In this episode, our economics and risk teams discuss everything from vaccine supply and rollout timelines. economic...
Apr 10, 2021•14 min•Ep. 83
Join our Sub-Saharan Africa team in their discussion on the debt relief efforts being offered by the IMF and the G20 to the region. Is it enough? Will it really help beyond immediate relief? Is there more the international community could be doing? These are complex questions and there are many perspectives to take into account. Our team offers a background on the issue, define the relief allocations including SDRs and discuss if these are ways to really solve a country’s debt problems. Theo Ach...
Apr 03, 2021•20 min•Ep. 82
Most of us discuss ECG at the corporate level, but what if we looked at the country level? Last year we launched a Sovereign ESG index to provide a quantitative picture of country-level risk – and this sits alongside our company-level analysis. In today’s episode, our Latin America experts will discuss the pressure ESG regulations and expectations puts on both companies and governments. Speakers; Alexia Ash, Director, Country Risk Quantification, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/ash-alex...
Mar 27, 2021•30 min•Ep. 81
With steel prices hitting record highs, and supplies being tight in many regions, our Director of Pricing & Purchasing, John Anton, sits with us to discuss the continued mismatch between demand recovery and production restarts. John discusses the impacts to construction and manufacturing with delays, deferred projects, and in many cases missed budgets. What lies ahead? Is there any good news? Join us and get the full picture. John Anton, Director, Pricing & Purchasing, IHS Markit https:/...
Mar 23, 2021•12 min•Ep. 80
The Asia-Pacific region is well-placed in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine rollout, with both India and China having sufficient domestic innovation and production capacity to be pivotal vaccine suppliers. Vaccine rollouts in most Asia-Pacific countries will likely extend into 2022 given supply constraints, logistical difficulties, the geographical spread of rural populations, and shortages of trained healthcare professionals. Join Lindsay Newman, Bree Neff, Sophie Cairns, and Deep...
Mar 16, 2021•29 min•Ep. 79
Join John Anton and Patrick Warren from our pricing and purchasing team as they talk about the increases in packaging costs in the first half of 2021. After a decrease in costs and 2019 and a flat 2020, box and board is experiencing a second price increase in 4 months. Driven mainly by increased demand from online shopping, box demand is at all-time record levels. Add in some supply side pressures around labor shortages, wage increases due to overtime, transportation disruptions, and even cyber-...
Mar 09, 2021•8 min•Ep. 78
2020 was the worst year for the global economy in a long time. And the same can be said for the Chinese economy. In today’s episode, we join our China economics team, Todd Lee, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi to understand how strong China’s economic recovery was in late 2020, what were the key drivers, and what we can expect in the Lunar New Year of the Ox. Speakers Rajiv Biswas (Moderator), Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit https://ihsmarkit.com/experts/biswas-rajiv.html Todd Lee, Chief China Eco...
Feb 23, 2021•17 min•Ep. 77
One of the many fallouts from the Covid-19 pandemic is disruptions to global supply chains. As we start to restructure supply chains, our Sub Saharan Africa team digs into what this could mean for the region. At first blush, SSA seems unlikely to benefit from this diversification drive. However, under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) there will be some opportunities. Natznet Tesfay (Moderator), Executive Director, Africa, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsm...
Feb 20, 2021•27 min•Ep. 76
In today’s episode, we explore the operational, security, and political challenges Latin American countries will face as they roll out their vaccine programs. Our analysts, Lindsay Newman, Ewa Oliveira da Silva, Rafael Amiel, and Johanna Marris, address the health crisis, the economic constraints and impacts, and the political and security issues that could stand in the way of both health and economic recovery. Dr. Lindsay Newman, Director, Economics & Country Risk, IHS Markit https://ihsmar...
Feb 13, 2021•27 min•Ep. 75
While bank defaults are not uncommon in Mainland China, a few recent defaults have triggered a strong response. What makes these different? Well, it’s not the size of the default but rather the high-profile nature of the companies themselves that has created a stir. In today’s episode, our experts from our China economics and banking risk teams, Rajiv Biswas, Angus Lam, Yating Xu, and Lei Yi, discuss implications of these recent bond defaults and the impact on the wider global banking sector. Re...
Feb 09, 2021•18 min•Ep. 74
With the worst economic contraction in recent history (-1.5%) in 2020, the Asia Pacific region is poised for 5.7% y/y growth in 2021—that is, assuming we see a successful vaccine roll out and a slowing in Covid-19 cases. But, recovery is not without its bumps. 2021 promises to be a year of uncertainty and the of pace of the recovery will be differentiated across the region. Join our Chief Asia Pacific Economist, Rajiv Biswas, in today’s episode to gain an understanding of the regional economic r...
Jan 30, 2021•30 min•Ep. 73
In today's episode, our pricing and purchasing experts, John Anton, John Mothersole, and Sophie Malin discuss the continued shortages being felt across material production and labor markets due to Covid-19 lockdowns and disease progression. John Mothersole talks about the growing frustrations being felt due to consistent disruptions across mining, lumber, and more critically semiconductors which will have a knock-on effect on additional industries. When the conversation turns to disruptions to c...
Jan 25, 2021•16 min•Ep. 72
We have entered 2021 with the pandemic still in full swing. While many of us held out hope for an end to the disease spread and a fast effective vaccination roll-out, its not our current reality. Gustav Ando, who runs our Life Sciences practice, provides us with answers to the questions we are all asking: What don't we know about the vaccines, what we do know about the the new new strains of the disease, and what's really happening with the roll out of the vaccines. Did you enjoy the podcast? We...
Jan 16, 2021•11 min•Ep. 71
